SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Revan said:
His curves not being correct was in the context of him using a normal distribution, which is not necessarily the case for infections. However, under some assumptions when independent random variables are added, they tend to converge towards a normal distribution. So, while his curves are not correct, they can serve as modeling.

However, his point is totally correct. If you have millions of sick people at the same time, but you can offer ventilators to only a few thousand, then a lot of sick people will die (with 5% of infected people needing oxygen ventilators).

Timothy Gowers (one of the most famous respected mathematicians in the world) came to the same conclusions.
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I’d be very wary of giving too much credence to people are solely focussed on modelling the health outcomes of COVID-19. Governments are having to consider far, far wider issues. This isn’t Pandemic the board game.

Deaths from COVID-19 are sadly just a small part of the problem. The economic ramifications leading to job losses, people losing their homes and businesses, as well as the indirect effect of the actions we take on the wider determinants of health in the long term, will very quickly be far more significant.

This is not about just managing the coronavirus any longer. This is about managing the global and local economies, and maintaining functional societies, in the context of the outbreak of the pandemic of COVID-19.
 
MaxiPaxi said:
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Had to happen at some point. We've been waiting for the first confirmed case in Ethiopia at least. Apparently it was a Japanese guy who arrived from Burkina Faso where he stayed in a hotel. He got to Addis Ababa on the fourth and was confirmed as a case yesterday. Who knows how many people he's been in contact with.
The guy in Ghana had been to a meeting in Turkey apparently.
 
::sonny:: said:
It’s interesting to see the differences:

Italy: Complete lockdown
England: Darwin natural selection

Who is right?
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Situations are not the same though and both countries have given out testing figures so we can compare. Should be obvious to you italy is the epicentre and in a very grave situation. 9th of March on the lockdown you had 9000 cases and hundreds of deaths out of 30-40k tested. UK has 798 cases and 10-11 deaths out of 32k tested. We'll see what happens in a month.
 
Italy have updated some figures for people interested (@Pogue Mahone you were asking). Based on 13882 cases, split into male, female and total.

Its in the over 70s that it really becomes deadly, and the younger you are either the less likely you are to show symptoms or the more resistant you are to getting it. Only 1.1% of people who have died so far had no other illness present.

Classe di eta = age range
Casi = cases
Deceduti = deaths
Sesso = sex
Letalita - lethality


Untitled.jpg



They published another document that said there are now two deaths under 40.

Ad oggi (13 marzo) sono 2 i pazienti deceduti COVID-19 positivi di età inferiore ai 40 anni. Si tratta di 1 persona di età di 39 anni, di sesso maschile, con pre-esistenti patologie psichiatriche, diabete e obesità, deceduta presso il proprio domicilio e di 1 persona di 39 anni, di sesso femminile, con pre-esistente patologie neoplastica deceduta in ospedale.
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Translated roughly: Today 13 March there are 2 deceased COVID-19 patients under 40 years old. 1 is a 39 year old male with pre-existing psychiatric pathologies, diabetes and obesity, who died at home, and a 39 year old female with pre-existing neoplastic pathologies who died in hospital.

Both reports here:
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_13_mazro.pdf
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/corona...eglianza-integrata-COVID-19_12-marzo-2020.pdf
 
11101 said:
Italy have updated some figures for people interested (@Pogue Mahone you were asking). Based on 13882 cases, split into male, female and total.

Its in the over 70s that it really becomes deadly, and the younger you are either the less likely you are to show symptoms or the more resistant you are to getting it. Only 1.1% of people who have died so far had no other illness present.

Classe di eta = age range
Casi = cases
Deceduti = deaths
Sesso = sex
Letalita - lethality


Untitled.jpg



They published another document that said there are now two deaths under 40.



Translated roughly: Today 13 March there are 2 deceased COVID-19 patients under 40 years old. 1 is a 39 year old male with pre-existing psychiatric pathologies, diabetes and obesity, who died at home, and a 39 year old female with pre-existing neoplastic pathologies who died in hospital.

Both reports here:
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_13_mazro.pdf
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/corona...eglianza-integrata-COVID-19_12-marzo-2020.pdf
Click to expand...

So the percentage of deaths overall is skewed a lot by 80+ years old.

Edit: in before someone accuses me of being fine with 80+ year olds dying.
 
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MaxiPaxi said:
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It's not in the headlines so much because total numbers are smaller but %wise the Netherlands are hit about as hard as Germany, France etc. Spoke to a friend in Tilburg and he's pretty much in lock down (goverment advise is not to meet friends he said). If the Dutch clusters are close to Belgium closing borders might be a option.
 
11101 said:
Italy have updated some figures for people interested (@Pogue Mahone you were asking). Based on 13882 cases, split into male, female and total.

Its in the over 70s that it really becomes deadly, and the younger you are either the less likely you are to show symptoms or the more resistant you are to getting it. Only 1.1% of people who have died so far had no other illness present.

Classe di eta = age range
Casi = cases
Deceduti = deaths
Sesso = sex
Letalita - lethality


Untitled.jpg



They published another document that said there are now two deaths under 40.



Translated roughly: Today 13 March there are 2 deceased COVID-19 patients under 40 years old. 1 is a 39 year old male with pre-existing psychiatric pathologies, diabetes and obesity, who died at home, and a 39 year old female with pre-existing neoplastic pathologies who died in hospital.

Both reports here:
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_13_mazro.pdf
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/corona...eglianza-integrata-COVID-19_12-marzo-2020.pdf
Click to expand...

Is there reports for hospitalisation, and admittance to ICU by age range?

That would be great to have look over.
 
Interesting info from China

"For the first time China is reporting that it has more new cases of the virus brought from outside the country, than infections passed on locally.

The data released by China's National Health Commission shows that the country had 11 new cases on Friday, four of which were locally transmitted in Hubei province where the new coronavirus began.

The other seven cases are in travellers from Italy, the US and Saudi Arabia."
 
Abizzz said:
It's not in the headlines so much because total numbers are smaller but %wise the Netherlands are hit about as hard as Germany, France etc. Spoke to a friend in Tilburg and he's pretty much in lock down (goverment advise is not to meet friends he said). If the Dutch clusters are close to Belgium closing borders might be a option.
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Cheers. Thanks for sharing that.
 
Revan said:
I read both of the threads he made. Yep, the math doesn't add up to creating the herd immunity, without killing 3% of the population or so.

I don't know much, but I think that the best strategy has to be to delay it as much as possible and get a vaccine in the meantime.
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This, this, this. That graph is a load of horse shit, because they don't ever even state how many people they're intended to get infected at the same time in their idealised and delayed 'peak'. If that's even even 1% of the population (600k people in the UK), we're fecked.

I think contain/delaying the shit is the best strategy. But it involves closing borders. Maybe not borders to everywhere, but especially to developing hotspots and maybe that way you can stagger the Italy style lockdowns across Europe.
 
redshaw said:
Interesting info from China

"For the first time China is reporting that it has more new cases of the virus brought from outside the country, than infections passed on locally.

The data released by China's National Health Commission shows that the country had 11 new cases on Friday, four of which were locally transmitted in Hubei province where the new coronavirus began.

The other seven cases are in travellers from Italy, the US and Saudi Arabia."
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It's only a matter of time, before they close their own borders. Ironically, something the West was afraid of doing to appease China.
 
redshaw said:
Interesting info from China

"For the first time China is reporting that it has more new cases of the virus brought from outside the country, than infections passed on locally.

The data released by China's National Health Commission shows that the country had 11 new cases on Friday, four of which were locally transmitted in Hubei province where the new coronavirus began.

The other seven cases are in travellers from Italy, the US and Saudi Arabia."
Click to expand...
This is why quarantine has to be timed correctly with consideration to globalisation and the overall infection rate.

If you lockdown too early, the virus will come back from outside (since it's almost undetectable in the early stages) and any population which has yet to develop immunity will need to go into lockdown once again.
 
MaxiPaxi said:
Is there reports for hospitalisation, and admittance to ICU by age range?

That would be great to have look over.
Click to expand...

Not yet, only what they say from time to time in the daily press conference.
 
Revan said:
I read both of the threads he made. Yep, the math doesn't add up to creating the herd immunity, without killing 3% of the population or so.

I don't know much, but I think that the best strategy has to be to delay it as much as possible and get a vaccine in the meantime.
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That's exactly my concern too. Get herd immunity but do it in a way that is with as few casualties as possible which means some tough measures but still much better than potentially losing loved ones who would otherwise would have lived. The way UK is gearing up now points to saving the economy rather than the population imo.
 
Dante said:
This is why quarantine has to be timed correctly with consideration to globalisation and the overall infection rate.

If you lockdown too early, the virus will come back from outside (since it's almost undetectable in the early stages) and any population which has yet to develop immunity will need to go into lockdown once again.
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I think it's a weird logic because there will never be a right time to go into lockdown if the reason against it is that "it will come back from outside". I think UK's thinking is much simpler, they are protecting their economy at all costs and it's a typical case of them being arrogant and ignorant of what happens outside their borders. Basically "we won't do like everyone else does, we are better". Maybe everyone else is wrong and UK is right but seeing from examples in the past few years, I think the odds are that it will backfire spectacularly. I am not saying go into a complete lockdown or quarantine right now but stuff like schools should have already been closed.
 
MaxiPaxi said:
That's exactly my concern too. Get herd immunity but do it in a way that is with as few casualties as possible which means some tough measures but still much better than potentially losing loved ones who would otherwise would have lived. The way UK is gearing up now points to saving the economy rather than the population imo.
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I think the UK is expecting to lose people and is making decisions based on accepting that fact.

Other countries seem to be in denial to some degree and are looking to mainly minimise infections in the short term, with much less consideration given to the implications in the medium to long term. I can understand why, but I think I don't believe it will turn out to be for the best.
 
11101 said:
Italy have updated some figures for people interested (@Pogue Mahone you were asking). Based on 13882 cases, split into male, female and total.

Its in the over 70s that it really becomes deadly, and the younger you are either the less likely you are to show symptoms or the more resistant you are to getting it. Only 1.1% of people who have died so far had no other illness present.

Classe di eta = age range
Casi = cases
Deceduti = deaths
Sesso = sex
Letalita - lethality


Untitled.jpg



They published another document that said there are now two deaths under 40.



Translated roughly: Today 13 March there are 2 deceased COVID-19 patients under 40 years old. 1 is a 39 year old male with pre-existing psychiatric pathologies, diabetes and obesity, who died at home, and a 39 year old female with pre-existing neoplastic pathologies who died in hospital.

Both reports here:
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_13_mazro.pdf
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/corona...eglianza-integrata-COVID-19_12-marzo-2020.pdf
Click to expand...

2.7% for 60-70? Haven't other sources given much higher numbers?
 
zing said:
2.7% for 60-70? Haven't other sources given much higher numbers?
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I'm not sure, but this is from the Italian equivalent of the Department of Health or the CDC. As far as Italy is concerned this is gospel.
 
Amar__ said:
So the percentage of deaths overall is skewed a lot by 80+ years old.

Edit: in before someone accuses me of being fine with 80+ year olds dying.
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Well, I mean how are they skewing it... they are dying, right?

skew /skjuː/ biased or distorted in a way that is regarded as inaccurate, unfair, or misleading.
 
dove said:
I think it's a weird logic because there will never be a right time to go into lockdown if the reason against it is that "it will come back from outside". I think UK's thinking is much simpler, they are protecting their economy at all costs and it's a typical case of them being arrogant and ignorant of what happens outside their borders. Basically "we won't do like everyone else does, we are better". Maybe everyone else is wrong and UK is right but seeing from examples in the past few years, I think the odds are that it will backfire spectacularly. I am not saying go into a complete lockdown or quarantine right now but stuff like schools should have already been closed.
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The UK's plan is spelled out in the link in my post:
Dante said:
Here's the government's actual plan, as defined on 3 March 2020:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...-a-guide-to-what-you-can-expect-across-the-uk

And a helpful infographic:
_111242059_phased_response-nc.png


We're on the same course we set out on 11 days ago. These aren't u-turns. They're pre-determined progressions from phase to phase. The 'limit large gatherings' stage was always in the pipeline.

When we get to the 'close schools' stage and later on the 'delay non-urgent care and employ retired medical staff' stage, those won't be u-turns either. Even if the message beforehand is that we're not ready for that yet.
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The UK's situation is still relatively good, compared to other nations:



Country,
Other		Total
Cases		New
Cases		Total
Deaths		New
Deaths		Total
Recovered		Active
Cases		Serious,
Critical		Tot Cases/
1M pop
Italy17,6601,2661,43914,9551,328292.1
Norway1,002+6111,00027184.8
S. Korea8,086+10772+57147,30059157.7
Switzerland1,359+2201141,344157.0
Denmark827+2318262142.8
Iran11,3645143,5297,321135.3
Bahrain210441661123.4
Spain5,2321331934,906272111.9
Qatar320320111.1
Estonia109+3010982.2
Sweden821+711819281.3
Slovenia141141467.8
Austria602+9816595166.8
China80,824+113,189+1365,56912,0664,02056.2
France3,66179123,57015456.1
Belgium55931555248.2
Netherlands8041027924546.9
Germany3,6758463,621943.9
Singapore200971031134.2
Finland156+1115528.2
Kuwait100595423.4
Hong Kong138+647856418.4
Greece1903+22185218.2
Ireland90189618.2
Israel154+114150317.8
Czechia150+9150214.0
Lebanon93+163189313.6
UK79811187692011.8

As has been stated numerous times in the media: if schools close, childcare will need to be provided. Most people can't afford childcare so they'll ask the grandparents to babysit and that will only exacerbate the problem. It's simplistic to think that school closures are the right measure at this point.
 
Dante said:
The UK's situation is still relatively good, compared to other nations:
Click to expand...

We've stopped testing anyone that isn't already in hospital with the symptoms of it.

And they are telling us not to even call 111 or notify anyone if we are at home ill.

It is therefore unsurprising that the numbers look good.

This is disingenuous in the extreme.
 
Nogbadthebad said:
We've stopped testing anyone that isn't already in hospital with the symptoms of it.

And they are telling us not to even call 111 or notify anyone if we are at home ill.

It is therefore unsurprising that the numbers look good.

This is disingenuous in the extreme.
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The UK's testing rate is reasonable:

Country​
Tests PerformedTests per Million People
Population​
​
Bahrain​
8,354​
4,910​
1,701,575​
OFFICIAL​
South Korea​
210,144​
4,099​
51,269,185​
OFFICIAL​
Hong Kong​
16,000​
2,134​
7,496,981​
Estimated​
Italy​
60,761​
1,005​
60,461,826​
OFFICIAL​
Switzerland​
5,000​
578​
8,654,622​
Estimated​
Mar. 3: 4,000 source​
Austria​
5,026​
558​
9,006,398​
OFFICIAL​
UK​
26,261​
387​
67,886,011​
OFFICIAL​
Belgium​
3,984​
344​
11,589,623​
Estimated​
Mar 9: 3,541 OFFICIAL source​
Australia​
8,278​
325​
25,499,884​
Estimated​
Mar. 8: 8,278 OFFICIAL PARTIAL source source​
Israel​
2,386​
276​
8,655,535​
Estimated​
Mar. 8: 1,771 source​
France​
11,895​
182​
65,273,511​
Estimated​
Mar. 5: 6,610 OFFICIAL source​
Finland​
720​
130​
5,540,720​
OFFICIAL Mar. 10​
Malaysia​
3,132​
97​
32,365,999​
OFFICIAL Mar. 10​
Japan​
9,600​
76​
126,476,461​
OFFICIAL Mar. 10​
Netherlands​
600​
35​
17,134,872​
Estimated​
Mar. 2: 200 source​
USA​
8,554​
26​
331,002,651​
OFFICIAL Mar. 10​
Vietnam​
2,367​
24​
97,338,579​
OFFICIAL Mar. 10​
Turkey​
940​
11​
84,339,067​
Estimated​
As of Mar 3: 940 OFFICIAL source​

Higher than France, Japan, the US and the Netherlands put together.
 
Dante said:
The UK's plan is spelled out in the link in my post:

The UK's situation is still relatively good, compared to other nations:



Country,
Other		Total
Cases		New
Cases		Total
Deaths		New
Deaths		Total
Recovered		Active
Cases		Serious,
Critical		Tot Cases/
1M pop
Italy17,6601,2661,43914,9551,328292.1
Norway1,002+6111,00027184.8
S. Korea8,086+10772+57147,30059157.7
Switzerland1,359+2201141,344157.0
Denmark827+2318262142.8
Iran11,3645143,5297,321135.3
Bahrain210441661123.4
Spain5,2321331934,906272111.9
Qatar320320111.1
Estonia109+3010982.2
Sweden821+711819281.3
Slovenia141141467.8
Austria602+9816595166.8
China80,824+113,189+1365,56912,0664,02056.2
France3,66179123,57015456.1
Belgium55931555248.2
Netherlands8041027924546.9
Germany3,6758463,621943.9
Singapore200971031134.2
Finland156+1115528.2
Kuwait100595423.4
Hong Kong138+647856418.4
Greece1903+22185218.2
Ireland90189618.2
Israel154+114150317.8
Czechia150+9150214.0
Lebanon93+163189313.6
UK79811187692011.8

As has been stated numerous times in the media: if schools close, childcare will need to be provided. Most people can't afford childcare so they'll ask the grandparents to babysit and that will only exacerbate the problem. It's simplistic to think that school closures are the right measure at this point.
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Schools will have to be closed at some point, do we wait for all the children to get it first before doing it so that they can spread it to their grandparents?
 
LInkash said:
Schools will have to be closed at some point, do we wait for all the children to get it first before doing it so that they can spread it to their grandparents?
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When the parents are at home as well, the grandparents won't be the ones babysitting.
 
Dante said:
The UK's situation is still relatively good, compared to other nations:
Click to expand...
Of course, it will look even better in coming weeks since they told everyone who are sick to just stay at home and be silent...

Dante said:
As has been stated numerous times in the media: if schools close, childcare will need to be provided. Most people can't afford childcare so they'll ask the grandparents to babysit and that will only exacerbate the problem. It's simplistic to think that school closures are the right measure at this point.
Click to expand...
Somehow other countries can cope with that but not UK.

We will see who is right and who wrong but personally I prefer to live in a country where government at least does something in the best interest of people even if it means taking a hit on economy. UK's response of "many people will die so let's just carry on what we are doing" is not what I would want to hear if I was still living in UK, I think all their actions are purely based on money.
 
dove said:
Of course, it will look even better in coming weeks since they told everyone who are sick to just stay at home and be silent...


Somehow other countries can cope with that but not UK.

We will see who is right and who wrong but personally I prefer to live in a country where government at least does something in the best interest of people even if it means taking a hit on economy. UK's response of "many people will die so let's just carry on what we are doing" is not what I would want to hear if I was still living in UK, I think all their actions are purely based on money.
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And your response is based on kneejerk hysteria that will end up killing even more people.
 
Researchers from the Erasmus hospital in Rotterdanlm and the university of Utrecht have found an antibody that they suspect can cure Corona. It will take months to find a producer etc, but it might be a start.

We will obviously be the bestest country in the world if we cure it.

Safe to say Louis van Gaal will try to take credit.

Cant find the source in English.
 
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