SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Dr. Anthony Fauci is 79 years old (though he looks much younger than that). With him meeting so many people (including Trump who might be infected), it can get ugly for him.
Massive respect for him to lead the fight against this virus, considering his age.
Massive respect for him to lead the fight against this virus, considering his age.
His curves not being correct was in the context of him using a normal distribution, which is not necessarily the case for infections. However, under some assumptions when independent random variables are added, they tend to converge towards a normal distribution. So, while his curves are not correct, they can serve as modeling.
However, his point is totally correct. If you have millions of sick people at the same time, but you can offer ventilators to only a few thousand, then a lot of sick people will die (with 5% of infected people needing oxygen ventilators).
Timothy Gowers (one of the most famous respected mathematicians in the world) came to the same conclusions.
Its the obvious solution and has worked in all the successful countries. But the cynical side of me thinks that they dont mind it fast-forwarding it to the mitigatory/treatment phase because it will be financial opportunities for the private sector.
It's not a question of provenance or even of the specific model he builds - it's basic maths you can do yourself. Please show me any distribution, any at all, of between 2 and 4 million people a year each requiring
It may well be unavoidable, it may well be the best course of action, but it is patently obvious that the plan the government is following (60% infection, 1 year) is going to completely overwhelm the health service for an extended period of time.
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Nah. The catastrophic short-term losses will be, well, catastrophic.
In Italy, all it takes to start a party is one man with an accordion.
Isn't containment the means to achieving 'flatten the curve'?
Or am I missing something.
Just for the record, when people are saying Country X only had 22 new cases today and providing narratives directly from that. It doesn’t seem like they’re grasping the full scale. We all understand that the stats produced daily aren’t fully reflective of the true picture, right? I know it’s almost impossible for them to be but it feels like some are taking it as gospel.
Testing isn’t available to everyone showing symptoms, even in the the countries with the biggest volumes right now. Generally, it’s being done on the sickest patients (ie those in hospital) and / or people with high profiles in some countries right now.
These figures routinely shown and quoted are indicative of form but likely wildly misrepresentative of the whole truth. The true scale is massive. There will be large amounts of cases and deaths at home unaccounted for - and therefore unaccredited.
Testing isn’t available to everyone showing symptoms, even in the the countries with the biggest volumes right now. Generally, it’s being done on the sickest patients (ie those in hospital) and / or people with high profiles in some countries right now.
These figures routinely shown and quoted are indicative of form but likely wildly misrepresentative of the whole truth. The true scale is massive. There will be large amounts of cases and deaths at home unaccounted for - and therefore unaccredited.
Kind of, but not exactly. Flatten the curve typically means, we are gonna get infected, but let’s get infected slowly. Containment might mean, not get infected at all until we get a vaccine. Very difficult to achieve, but probably doable.
Thanks, was scratching my head as to why 'flatten the curve' is a lie, as that article says, and then went on to suggest containment.
I had a thought after a trip to Aldi... what happens once the workers at supermarkets and pharmacies start getting the virus?
On a simultaneously disturbing and reassuring note.
A friend of mine going through cancer treatment reported an hours wait in a crowded waiting room at her radiotherapy session. No extra warning notices about the virus/symptoms and no hand sanitiser on entry to the hospital, or the waiting area and a queue for the loo and the one wash basin.
The local Aldi however had hand sanitiser at the door (and people were using it), notices up near the fruit/veg and the till staff all had their own hand sanitiser bottles. All tills manned and only the odd gap on the shelves. Whoever is the shop manager needs to be loaned to the NHS.
Also, most people will not even show symptoms. You may have already had it and will not know. I don’t think there will be that many deaths unaccounted for though, cases yes deaths no.
It’s interesting to see the differences:
Italy: Complete lockdown
England: Darwin natural selection
Who is right?
Italy: Complete lockdown
England: Darwin natural selection
Who is right?
It's rather alarming that shops are doing more prevention than medical facilities. There's three tills at the bigger supermarket I visit, they'd put perspex screens up between the women on the tills and the customers. All tills open (which is unusual) to move people through quickly. Sanitiser everywhere. Grocery shop staff are doing a really essential service now and they have to be protected.
This isolation thing wouldn't work at all if people couldn't get supplies.
Just read that a newborn In London has become the worlds youngest victim! Sad if true.
Been thinking about this over the last couple of days from a personal point of view. Self isolation really isn’t a problem for me at the moment. A part of me wants to just get the damn virus and get it over and done with.
There’s a little bit of worry in my mind though because last year I had a virus which reared it’s head a few times over the year when I got run down and it gave me an absolutely horrendous cough to the point where in the peak of the first bout of it last winter I coughed so hard I spat out flecks of blood which was pretty frightening at the time. The doctor said it was nothing serious underlying and just a case of the cough being so abrasive over a long period of time it did some superficial damage.
I seem to have fully shifted it now and it’s a good 6+ months since it last surfaced and I’ve avoided all viruses and bugs so far this winter (literally 90% of my uni course have been suffering with colds since Christmas) but I’m weary of getting something that’s going to effect my respiratory system again though as the doctor said it’s possible there was some lasting, albeit mild, damage from the cough last year.
I think a big part of the reason I want it out the way is so I can head home and look after my parents if needs be. My mum had cancer a few years ago and has smoked most of her life and is pretty sedentary despite our encouragement to be more active so I’d class her as very high risk.
It’s pretty scary when you start looking at your own situation, the people you love and start considering objectively how you think they might cope.
There’s a little bit of worry in my mind though because last year I had a virus which reared it’s head a few times over the year when I got run down and it gave me an absolutely horrendous cough to the point where in the peak of the first bout of it last winter I coughed so hard I spat out flecks of blood which was pretty frightening at the time. The doctor said it was nothing serious underlying and just a case of the cough being so abrasive over a long period of time it did some superficial damage.
I seem to have fully shifted it now and it’s a good 6+ months since it last surfaced and I’ve avoided all viruses and bugs so far this winter (literally 90% of my uni course have been suffering with colds since Christmas) but I’m weary of getting something that’s going to effect my respiratory system again though as the doctor said it’s possible there was some lasting, albeit mild, damage from the cough last year.
I think a big part of the reason I want it out the way is so I can head home and look after my parents if needs be. My mum had cancer a few years ago and has smoked most of her life and is pretty sedentary despite our encouragement to be more active so I’d class her as very high risk.
It’s pretty scary when you start looking at your own situation, the people you love and start considering objectively how you think they might cope.
Victim? I can see the news about being tested positive, please tell me he/she hasn’t succumbed?
schools have just been shut here in Phnom Penh after the head teacher of a school tested positive. We have pupils and teachers in our apartment block that have been instructed to self quarantine for 14 days.
S/he hasn't.
Just had to pick my 16 year old up from her friends as she's being sick over and over.
Read up online and it's not listed under the symptoms but I'm now sat here worried sick. Am I wasting their time if I ring 111 or am I doing the correct thing?
She hasn't got a fever or headache.
Read up online and it's not listed under the symptoms but I'm now sat here worried sick. Am I wasting their time if I ring 111 or am I doing the correct thing?
She hasn't got a fever or headache.
It’s not a symptom. Treat it with the same caution that you would have if the virus didn’t exist.
Her first hangover!
I’m sure she is fine. Don’t worry, teenagers seem to be massively resilient.
Yeah I know thats the rational way of thinking but it's hard not to worry.
Don’t worry too much it’s probably either drugs, pregnancy or both.
Already grilled her on that to be fair.
Defo not hangover but more likely another bug doing the rounds, she's been told to stay in her room. Last thing I need is time off work with another bug before it's likely were all gonna catch this thing.
Real funny.
When I was 16 I went a house party and come home being sick.
My mum went mad saying I deserved the hangover and I’d let her down.
I had glandular fever and missed about eight months of school!
Sorry can’t help myself sometimes, hope she gets better soon.
Probably food poisoning. Ask her what she ate that nobody else did. I might even be that she forgot to wash her hands and picked up a stomach bug on her hands (maybe petting an animal?).
Coronavirus primarily affects the respiratory system, not the digestive system. Her body is trying to get rid of a contagion from the stomach rather than the lungs.
I seem to be coughing a fair bit this morning.
Don’t worry, it’s probably just AIDS
I'd go to a chemist and ask for something to replace electrolytes lost through excessive vomiting and make sure she drinks plenty of water. Hope she feels better soon.
Hearing lots of nightmare stories from nurses around here.
Is there any data or information about how this affects pregnant women? Wouldn’t imagine it’s anything worse than catching seasonal illness any other year
The stories from Italy are horrific also.
From what I have read pregnant woman are as vulnerable as other woman with all other factors being the same (besides children the least vulnerable group). It isn't passed on to the fetus. Not sure which pdf I read that in but somewhere on https://www.who.int/