So they're now saying that 70% will only get mild cold like symptoms? I'd guess that would make the death rate a lot lower given that most would ignore it. I wonder if I've had it this past week because my mum has been pretty ill and with a cough and I think I caught that from her but with milder symptoms. 111 told my mum she was fine and just had a cold but she was pretty run down.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
I'm talking about Italy. Banning group gatherings and schools didnt make the slightest difference. The only thing that has worked in any area that has brought it under control is almost total lockdown.
4000 people died in the states during the H1N1 pandemic under Obama. I would bet a large sum of money Trump is desperate to keep the US death numbers (artificially) lower than this cos he's a petty insecure cnut who's obsessed with Obama.
Is there much point to lots of random testing? We know it's here and spreading now. Easier to just to take temperature readings perhaps?
Even optimistic estimates mean that hundreds of thousands, potentially millions, are going to die in the US. He isn't going to be able to cover it up.
Trump's psychological makeup aside, no democratic government has any interest whatsoever in mismanaging this crisis. It will sink governments and political careers. Only poor infrastructure, bad decisions and ineptitude will cause suboptimal outcomes.
No, the numbers are probably already too crazy for a testing regime to work or give us interesting information.
A lot, if people pay attention. Even if the "I've got a bit of a cough/cold and I'm taking a lemsip" group is only 1% of the working population at any given time in a typical winter - and I reckon it's more than that - it's a lot of people.
Will people do it? Well that's the advice now, so the next step is to get employers and co-workers to enforce it. It's a mindset change for most people, brought up on "toughing it out" but (like handwashing) it's pretty key to not passing it on to the more vulnerable.
I played badminton last night at Peter May Sports Centre which is where the Arsenal youth academy is based. If the club is infected then it's likely there too.
So far we had 3 confirmed cases in Lithuania, however, the first person to contract it is still in the hospital (symptoms have faded away now) but after two weeks she's still testing positive, which is scary given she no longer has any symptoms.
Oh I know, but he's a stupid narcissistic & conceited feck who not only doesn't listen to people who know better but thinks he know more than them and I'd bet that's the bar he's set on wether or not he can act all smug. When it eventually does surpass that number hell move the goalposts anyway.
I guess testing positive doesn’t inherently mean still contagious? But I could be wrong.
Purposely inaccurate.
Italy started off testing literally everybody in the original outbreak area and were finding 50% of the positives were coming from people with no symptoms. They stopped that at the end of February a) because they couldn't keep up once the outbreak grew and b) it was making them look so bad when nobody else in Europe was testing anywhere near that level. Now they only report cases where there are symptoms - so you can probably double the Italian cases figures, or even quadruple them if you consider many people with the virus will slip under the radar.
Just got this from surgeon friend.
I don’t think enough people appreciate the absolute heroes on the front lines.
I don’t think enough people appreciate the absolute heroes on the front lines.
Health workers are going to get infected too. Massive stress/PTSD likely from making hard decisions. Isolation from their own families. They are amazing.
Is there any evidence that the mutation of viruses causes diversity in culture to the point where being continually exposed to a wide variety of infected people over a period of time could see a single person be continually infected with strains which are resistant to the natural immunity developed against other strains?
Sorry a bit of a word salad but hopefully obvious enough what I am trying to ask.
Going Wales today on a coach. Then supposed to be going to the rugby tomorrow, but I can't see myself doing that to be honest.
Testing is quite labour/resource intensive so it's easier to assume it's a possibility - the same way doctors assume other diseases are a possibility.
The main advantage of testing is to decide treatment path for the ones who need medical intervention.
The exceptions are going to be in places like care homes, where a single case has implications for the whole location.
The other testing issue is related to seeing where we're sat on that curve. That's more about taking a statistical sampling approach though, rather than genuine screening.
Seems like a waste of resources. Better to test those with obvious symptoms rather than those who may have been in contact with a spreader.
My word.
That is fecking scary shit.
Have any countries in Europe stopped flights coming in? I know some airlines have cancelled flights that are going to/from Italy, but have any countries or airports taken measures?
It’s not zero cost at all. What do you do for living out of interest? We invest in these things either publicly as private citizens because there is a massive benefit to them for individuals and society.
Are you genuinely not aware of the benefits of living an active lifestyle? That has greater benefit to your health than any drug you could take.
I’ve already insisted on a member of staff I manage not coming in the office next week. Peer pressure will be massive.
Really wishing the best for all the brave nurses, doctors and medical staff around Europe at this time. It's about to kick off in a big way.
When this was breaking in Wuhan, there were similar scenes of medical personnal being called up from around China on the eve of the Spring Festival. Having to leave their families to head right into the belly of the beast. It was honestly gut wrenching to see. Brings tears to your eyes but restores your hope in humanity at the same time.
When this was breaking in Wuhan, there were similar scenes of medical personnal being called up from around China on the eve of the Spring Festival. Having to leave their families to head right into the belly of the beast. It was honestly gut wrenching to see. Brings tears to your eyes but restores your hope in humanity at the same time.
Having re-read the transcript of Johnson's press conference yesterday, you have to say that this a bold move. I have seen many describe it as a gamble, but what it really is, is a trade.
The Government are clearly happy for there to be a very high infection rate and they want this entire ordeal to be over with, quickly. There are two benefits to that: firstly, you minimise the economic impact that would inevitably occur with the prolonged use of highly-restrictive quarantine measures. Secondly, you quickly build up some measure of immunity in the population, making them more resistant to a second wave next winter. The price of those benefits, is a much higher death rate. That's the trade.
To put the Government's numbers in some context, Sir Patrick Vallance said that 50% of the total infections that will occur, will occur three or four weeks either side of the peak (which, on Government estimates, will be mid-June). The upper threshold for total infections in the Government's scenario modelling, is 80% of the population becoming infected. That means that some 40% of the total UK population could be infected with Covid-19 during the six week period from late May to early July - that is 26 million people.
If the Chinese CDC numbers prove accurate, then we can expect 14% of those people to require hospital treatment of some sort and 8% of them to require intensive care - that is 2 million people that will require an ICU bed for critical life-saving treatment in the month of June. The UK has a total of 4,000 ICU beds (which are already 80% full). June, according to the Government's own numbers, is going to be absolutely horrific. In terms of casualties, we're essentially talking the opening day of the Battle of the Somme, every day, for more than a month. I can scarcely imagine the absolute hell that awaits NHS critical care doctors this summer.
The Government are clearly happy for there to be a very high infection rate and they want this entire ordeal to be over with, quickly. There are two benefits to that: firstly, you minimise the economic impact that would inevitably occur with the prolonged use of highly-restrictive quarantine measures. Secondly, you quickly build up some measure of immunity in the population, making them more resistant to a second wave next winter. The price of those benefits, is a much higher death rate. That's the trade.
To put the Government's numbers in some context, Sir Patrick Vallance said that 50% of the total infections that will occur, will occur three or four weeks either side of the peak (which, on Government estimates, will be mid-June). The upper threshold for total infections in the Government's scenario modelling, is 80% of the population becoming infected. That means that some 40% of the total UK population could be infected with Covid-19 during the six week period from late May to early July - that is 26 million people.
If the Chinese CDC numbers prove accurate, then we can expect 14% of those people to require hospital treatment of some sort and 8% of them to require intensive care - that is 2 million people that will require an ICU bed for critical life-saving treatment in the month of June. The UK has a total of 4,000 ICU beds (which are already 80% full). June, according to the Government's own numbers, is going to be absolutely horrific. In terms of casualties, we're essentially talking the opening day of the Battle of the Somme, every day, for more than a month. I can scarcely imagine the absolute hell that awaits NHS critical care doctors this summer.
What exactly is the treatment for patients in hospitals? Is it just care or skilled medical procedures like intubation? Can volunteers be called for from the population?
I don't think that's quite right. The figure was 10% of health workers getting it last time the government announced anything.
There are Gofund me type pages being set up all over the country for the hospitals and health workers, the page for my local ICU is up to 200k already.
Essentially about relieving the symptoms whilst your body fights the illness. Oxygen therapy being one way - as breathing difficulties are a symptom.
You can’t even be called upon to wash dishes in a restaurant here without proper licensing.
I doubt there’s enough certified nurses or caregivers on standby to alleviate a surge in demand in hospitals, if that’s what you’re asking.
And each thread should be a metre apart.Maybe everyone should have their own individual thread, just to be safe
My wife's cousin works and lives in Germany, he started to get symptoms two weeks ago so he returned to Poland without doing any tests. He started feeling better so he went back to Germany to work, but then he fell ill and cannot get out of bed anymore. What they've done now, is that his father and brother got into a car and drove over to Germany to pick him up and bring him back to Poland to treat him at home with chicken soup and tea. People are fecking morons. We are never going to contain this, it's just about slowing it down now.
Government ought to get used to being fecked of with Newsnight now that Goodall is the new editor.
I know we've got folk here in Italy already but I messaged a friend in Milan last night for an update and this is what he said...
I think people often focus entirely on the virus and overlook the bolded part. It won't just be deaths from Covid19 itself but the all the stuff that people can't get treated for due to Hospitals been overwhelmed.
Hi, we are fine at the moment. The situation is surreal here in Milan, everything is closed, desert streets, it's forbidden to go outside. You can only go to work, if you are a doctor or a nurse or a financial advisor
I think people often focus entirely on the virus and overlook the bolded part. It won't just be deaths from Covid19 itself but the all the stuff that people can't get treated for due to Hospitals been overwhelmed.
Just wondering if those who have had it and get better can do anything to help alleviate the workload
All UEFA matches postponed
This is true and should be highlighted to people even more. Yesterday we had a viral video here of a guy that was about 28-35 filming himself at intensive care, complaining that he had to wait hours to get checked. He was young, didn't appear to be doing that badly, there was no need for him to go to hospital to get checked at that point but because the likes of him are doing that hospitals can't carry on.
if you are young and are not feeling very bad, you don't have to rush to hospital. Stay home.