SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

TMDaines said:
It’s not zero cost at all. What do you do for living out of interest? We invest in these things either publicly as private citizens because there is a massive benefit to them for individuals and society.

Are you genuinely not aware of the benefits of living an active lifestyle? That has greater benefit to your health than any drug you could take.
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You’re being obtuse or facetious.

None of those things need to be run for society to function.

I’m not advocating that they stop forever. But they’re natural communication zones.

Nor am I advocating that those people have to stay inside. They can go out and about just fine. It’s not ‘Leisure centre or Netflix with McDonalds’. They simply don’t need to move in large groups sharing the same air, seats, water bottles, and so on.

These measures would affect me. I could handle it though. As could everyone else.
 
CassiusClaymore said:
I know we've got folk here in Italy already but I messaged a friend in Milan last night for an update and this is what he said...



I think people often focus entirely on the virus and overlook the bolded part. It won't just be deaths from Covid19 itself but the all the stuff that people can't get treated for due to Hospitals been overwhelmed.
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Yep. Colleagues in Milan say there are police going round with loudspeakers telling everybody to stay at home. We don't have that here but police and army are everywhere and if you are outside they will stop you and ask you why. The strictness of the enforcement has progressively increased throughout the week.

A friend of a friend is in the police and says part of the reason they want everybody inside is because if there is a car accident or something, they may not be able to help you.
 
11101 said:
Yep. Colleagues in Milan say there are police going round with loudspeakers telling everybody to stay at home. We don't have that here but police and army are everywhere and if you are outside they will stop you and ask you why. The strictness of the enforcement has progressively increased throughout the week.

A friend of a friend is in the police and says part of the reason they want everybody inside is because if there is a car accident or something, they may not be able to help you.
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Yeah makes perfect sense.

In other news I've had a slight cough for two days and woke up feeling achey this morning. Nothing major though. My partner who has Type 1 diabetes has been having trouble with her blood sugars the last couple of nights as well which is odd as she's done nothing out of the ordinary. I know what that might mean though.

Working from home obviously although she can't...yet.
 
Anyone know what the situation is like in Paris right now? Is it also a ghost town or similar to the UK with everything running despite what’s going on?
 
Organic Potatoes said:
You can’t even be called upon to wash dishes in a restaurant here without proper licensing.

I doubt there’s enough certified nurses or caregivers on standby to alleviate a surge in demand in hospitals, if that’s what you’re asking.
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Yes, a major problem would be criminal records checks, which you have to do in any volunteer position where you have contact with kids or vulnerable people. Many folk would be capable of doing the domestic/basic care for sick people, such as helping them wash, making beds, taking them to the toilet - but you can't allow unchecked volunteers to do that.
 
As hard as Italy has been hit, Spain looks to be in real trouble.

They've gone from 600 cases to 4000 in 5 days. It took Italy 8 days to do the same.
 
So, the plan is we all get it (60% isn't enough for herd immunity, its 90%+, hence the rapid reemergence of measles as soon as vaccinations fall below 90%).

One problem. There are currently 6 families of the virus with over 200 recorded strains, in other words, its like flu.

You cannot develop immunity to a virus that is capable of antigenic drift and shift, such as flu viruses.

You can catch flu multiple times and they have to produce new flu vaccines every year because of this.
 
Grinner said:
What exactly is the treatment for patients in hospitals? Is it just care or skilled medical procedures like intubation? Can volunteers be called for from the population?
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Roughly speaking, progressive forms of breathing assistance and getting fever under control.

Volunteers as in helping out with menial tasks, maybe.

Edit: first-hand account of survivor (He describes how he felt; can be unpleasant reading)
 
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UnrelatedPsuedo said:
You’re being obtuse or facetious.

None of those things need to be run for society to function.

I’m not advocating that they stop forever. But they’re natural communication zones.

Nor am I advocating that those people have to stay inside. They can go out and about just fine. It’s not ‘Leisure centre or Netflix with McDonalds’. They simply don’t need to move in large groups sharing the same air, seats, water bottles, and so on.

These measures would affect me. I could handle it though. As could everyone else.
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I’m sure they will be shut at some point, but you don’t do it whilst they are still delivering greater benefits than additional risks.If you shut them now, they’ll be shut for 3+ months. These threads are great evidence that society barely has the composure for mass quarantines of a few weeks, let alone months. The cases are dramatically going to rise at some point regardless. You only take the most dramatic restrictions when most effective.
 
11101 said:
I'm talking about Italy. Banning group gatherings and schools didnt make the slightest difference. The only thing that has worked in any area that has brought it under control is almost total lockdown.
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Yeah sorry mate misread it.
 
nickm said:
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Also, the chart doesn't include the Netherlands, who are on a similar timeline to us, and have a similar policy to use with regard of keeping schools open for now.

But including them wouldn't fit their narrative or agenda, so they excluded them.
 
nickm said:
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Not surprised. Germany have localized schools closures as do the UK. Not sure the about the Sports part, both countries have suspended individual games and events. Both are in the same boat regarding football as of right now and and looks like both will have to suspend soon.
 
Infra-red said:
Having re-read the transcript of Johnson's press conference yesterday, you have to say that this a bold move. I have seen many describe it as a gamble, but what it really is, is a trade.

The Government are clearly happy for there to be a very high infection rate and they want this entire ordeal to be over with, quickly. There are two benefits to that: firstly, you minimise the economic impact that would inevitably occur with the prolonged use of highly-restrictive quarantine measures. Secondly, you quickly build up some measure of immunity in the population, making them more resistant to a second wave next winter. The price of those benefits, is a much higher death rate. That's the trade.

To put the Government's numbers in some context, Sir Patrick Vallance said that 50% of the total infections that will occur, will occur three or four weeks either side of the peak (which, on Government estimates, will be mid-June). The upper threshold for total infections in the Government's scenario modelling, is 80% of the population becoming infected. That means that some 40% of the total UK population could be infected with Covid-19 during the six week period from late May to early July - that is 26 million people.

If the Chinese CDC numbers prove accurate, then we can expect 14% of those people to require hospital treatment of some sort and 8% of them to require intensive care - that is 2 million people that will require an ICU bed for critical life-saving treatment in the month of June. The UK has a total of 4,000 ICU beds (which are already 80% full). June, according to the Government's own numbers, is going to be absolutely horrific. In terms of casualties, we're essentially talking the opening day of the Battle of the Somme, every day, for more than a month. I can scarcely imagine the absolute hell that awaits NHS critical care doctors this summer.
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Is it even proven that infected people will have a higher immunity? It just seems to me people will die in the hopes that they can maintain the economy. I don't even think the virus is understood to a point where we know this will be effective. Bojo is effectively sacrificing much of his voting base here.
 
Dan_F said:
Surely you’re clever enough to realise that number depends on so many things. There’s lots of information out there that say we’re anywhere between 5-10k that are actually infected.

Maybe we should not test anyone, then we have zero cases and are the bestest in the world.
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In Spain and France due to high amount of deaths there's probably around 50,000 cases or more. Surely you're clever enough to understand that?

I'm showing info to show UK is possibly just not there yet, might be 1 week or 4 before we move to other measures. Nearly all countries have limited testing requirements and kits available and UK testing was in line with Italy's testing last week when Italy had 79 deaths and 2500 cases while we had 300 cases and 5 deaths. Italy positivity rate was 10-11% at around 25k tested and UK was 1.3%, for a mild situation in the UK and the grave one in Italy as of the first week of March we had done a good amount of testing. Other countries refuse to let the testing amounts known, probably because they're low.
 
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TMDaines said:
I’m sure they will be shut at some point, but you don’t do it whilst they are still delivering greater benefits than additional risks.If you shut them now, they’ll be shut for 3+ months. These threads are great evidence that society barely has the composure for mass quarantines of a few weeks, let alone months. The cases are dramatically going to rise at some point regardless. You only take the most dramatic restrictions when most effective.
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None of those measures are dramatic.

Nor will society collapse without them. The first few days will be the worst. It won’t get progressively worse.

I don’t understand anyone that says “Let’s not do this thing that will certainly slow down spread... because we would like to wait several weeks to do that”. It’s broken logic.
 


Scottish league going ahead then. The old firm will get some viewing numbers th his weekend.
 
swooshboy said:
Also, the chart doesn't include the Netherlands, who are on a similar timeline to us, and have a similar policy to use with regard of keeping schools open for now.

But including them wouldn't fit their narrative or agenda, so they excluded them.
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The netherlands have put in place social distancing measures though so I'm not sure your point is as strong as you believe. It's not just school closures of concern here.
 
Nogbadthebad said:
So, the plan is we all get it (60% isn't enough for herd immunity, its 90%+, hence the rapid reemergence of measles as soon as vaccinations fall below 90%).

One problem. There are currently 6 families of the virus with over 200 recorded strains, in other words, its like flu.

You cannot develop immunity to a virus that is capable of antigenic drift and shift, such as flu viruses.

You can catch flu multiple times and they have to produce new flu vaccines every year because of this.
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There isn't the evidence for this yet, potentially two strains (unless you are talking about coronaviruses as a whole?).

It seems likely that successful recovery from infection will lead to immunity.
 
Infra-red said:
The Government are clearly happy for there to be a very high infection rate and they want this entire ordeal to be over with, quickly. There are two benefits to that: firstly, you minimise the economic impact that would inevitably occur with the prolonged use of highly-restrictive quarantine measures. Secondly, you quickly build up some measure of immunity in the population, making them more resistant to a second wave next winter. The price of those benefits, is a much higher death rate. That's the trade.

To put the Government's numbers in some context, Sir Patrick Vallance said that 50% of the total infections that will occur, will occur three or four weeks either side of the peak (which, on Government estimates, will be mid-June). The upper threshold for total infections in the Government's scenario modelling, is 80% of the population becoming infected. That means that some 40% of the total UK population could be infected with Covid-19 during the six week period from late May to early July - that is 26 million people.
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I wouldn’t say “happy”, but your point about the expected peak is key. Shutting up shop for a month, even two, just leaves us on our knees economically and societally, and exhausted mentally, when the worst is yet to come. We have to keep going where we can for now.
 
Smores said:
The netherlands have put in place social distancing measures though so I'm not sure your point is as strong as you believe. It's not just school closures of concern here.
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The only difference is the cancellation of events of 100+ people, which the govt scientists said doesn't massively effect transmission rates (c.5%). As people on here have said previously it's almost pointless if you allow pubs to open and the London underground to continue as normal.
 
Smores said:
The netherlands have put in place social distancing measures though so I'm not sure your point is as strong as you believe. It's not just school closures of concern here.
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Yep - they have cancelled all events of 100+ people and am getting daily updates from there so am fully aware what is going on over there :)

Not trying to make a strong argument - just thought it was odd not to have included them and as soon as you start choosing to edit the representation of data or exclude elements, then you are rightly open to questions as to why.
 
UnrelatedPsuedo said:
None of those measures are dramatic.

Nor will society collapse without them. The first few days will be the worst. It won’t get progressively worse.

I don’t understand anyone that says “Let’s not do this thing that will certainly slow down spread... because we would like to wait several weeks to do that”. It’s broken logic.
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Not necessarily. The government states they want herd immunity to stop this recurring, and to be able to manage demand on the health service. I assume the spread is currently at the rate they judge optimal for those two goals - and other measures will be introduced when the infection rate hits a certain level.

It's also worth pointing out that closing schools will take a load of staff out of the NHS at a moment where they are trying to prepare for the inevitable rise in cases.

This is well worth a read by the way:

 
Fiskey said:
The only difference is the cancellation of events of 100+ people, which the govt scientists said doesn't massively effect transmission rates (c.5%). As people on here have said previously it's almost pointless if you allow pubs to open and the London underground to continue as normal.
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Which government scientists? Ours? Theirs?
 
Fiskey said:
The only difference is the cancellation of events of 100+ people, which the govt scientists said doesn't massively effect transmission rates (c.5%). As people on here have said previously it's almost pointless if you allow pubs to open and the London underground to continue as normal.
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It would have been pointless to say they are practicing social distancing yet not stopping people using the underground.
 
Feels like thay scene from The Dark Knight rises where Blake is on the bridge trying to leave Gotham and that idiot blows up the bridge without listening to him. Blake is the UK Public, the bridge is social distancing and the idiot is our PM.
 
horsechoker said:
He probably has to take this gamble because he knows the economy will be fecked next year anyway.
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Why take any gamble then? The economy is going to be fecked anyway and the governments all have a great excuse for that now. So surely focusing purely on trying to save people's lives would be a good approach?
 
Kentonio said:
Why take any gamble then? The economy is going to be fecked anyway and the governments all have a great excuse for that now. So surely focusing purely on trying to save people's lives would be a good approach?
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Well he's already conceeded people will die, and he's letting people get infected in order to develop immunity. I think this plan is flawed because we don't even know if letting people get it will actually make them immune.
 
nickm said:
Not necessarily. The government states they want herd immunity to stop this recurring, and to be able to manage demand on the health service. I assume the spread is currently at the rate they judge optimal for those two goals - and other measures will be introduced when the infection rate hits a certain level.

It's also worth pointing out that closing schools will take a load of staff out of the NHS at a moment where they are trying to prepare for the inevitable rise in cases.

This is well worth a read by the way:

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Not advocating closing school.
 
horsechoker said:
He probably has to take this gamble because he knows the economy will be fecked next year anyway.
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As in most things, we should identify the root cause.
China.
And then we should look to get reparations by sueing the Chinese government for causing this catastrophe.
 
To expect us to develop herd immunity to this is very irresponsible. Very.
 
nickm said:
Interesting explanation of the government's strategy here:



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It's the wrong strategy, especially for our country. If we were Germany, with six times the number of critical care beds per 100k population, perhaps we could be more sanguine about allowing the infection to spread.

No, this strategy is likely a result of The Nudge Unit having too much influence. The Government are giving more credence to the behaviouralists' modelling than the medical experts' advice. Jeremy Hunt, who will likely be well-aware of the inner workings of Johnson's advisory team, made exactly this accusation on BBCR4 yesterday.
 
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