@Shakesey
The other problem with your theory is you’re effectively ignoring the future impact of vaccination. Take flu for example - I have no idea of the actual figures but speaking intuitively, without annual flu jags I presume “x” more people would die. But for a significant majority of the population the jab doesn’t do anything because they catch flu, build some immunity to the variant and carry on. Next year even if it mutates they catch it and same cycle. However for a small portion, if they didn’t take the vaccine they might die from that infection that year. The critical thing though is that the deaths most likely would only occur in that segment.
Once this becomes endemic, you will have a cohort of people who will get repeat infections and maintain immunity from that. But there is a cohort which, if they didn’t have a vaccine and got reinfected, have a higher chance of passing away. So you’re right in some ways that we will live with Covid with the largest portion of people getting by with infection and immunity. But the ones who could die, will likely need vaccination to supplement their immunity each year. And so whilst a small portion of the people will rely on it, as these are the ones most likely to die, the vaccine is significantly more important than immunity in death prevention.