SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

ManchesterYoda said:
Yes, there will be many people who were at risk from Covid, got vaccinated, then got infected and the vaccine immunity helped them fight the infection. Do you think the vaccine has killed or seriously harmed anybody at all?
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I think that you can count on one hand the number of people who have died directly because of the vaccine. The number of deaths directly because of being infected by Covid-19 is in the millions world wide.

So for that singer who got Covid deliberately and died, where is she now in your view? If she's not dead she must be somewhere, maybe in the bunker with JFK and Elvis? Maye the Czech government killed her using the deadly vaccine and said it was Covid to make a point?

Weak with you the force is.
 
ManchesterYoda said:
Never had a test and never had a jab. I had a sore throat a few days ago, perhaps it was Omicron, don't know, don't care. My immune system handled it like it always does.

Is the pandemic coming to an end? Will people who didn't get jabbed still be discriminated against even after the pandemic is over? For how long? Months? Years? Forever? If there is no pandemic do I still need to get the jab? How any jabs? If they bring out a new jab do I still need to take 2 doses of the obsolete jab?
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:lol: Weren’t you posting a few weeks ago about some other random illness that you convinced yourself was covid?! I don’t think your immune system is near as strong as you think it is. You sound like quite a sickly person.
 
Christ, I hate siding with an anti-vaxxer here, but when this pandemic ends it'll be more down to immunity due to infection than immunity due to the vaccines... Case in point - South Africa. The majority hasn't been vaccinated, and yet our figures (and I don't think it's due to a lack of testing) are looking rather good. Look, I know vaccines are helping us to get out of this mess, but the Spanish Flu and numerous other infectious diseases have been beaten by mutating viruses or herd immunity through prior infection. I'm not belittling the influence the vaccines have had, but sometimes I feel we're maybe glorifying them just a tad too much... Surely all of you have secretly wondered if this mightn't be the case?
 
Shakesey said:
Christ, I hate siding with an anti-vaxxer here, but when this pandemic ends it'll be more down to immunity due to infection than immunity due to the vaccines... Case in point - South Africa. The majority hasn't been vaccinated, and yet our figures (and I don't think it's due to a lack of testing) are looking rather good. Look, I know vaccines are helping us to get out of this mess, but the Spanish Flu and numerous other infectious diseases have been beaten by mutating viruses or herd immunity through prior infection. I'm not belittling the influence the vaccines have had, but sometimes I feel we're maybe glorifying them just a tad too much... Surely all of you have secretly wondered if this mightn't be the case?
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The difference between SA and other, more vaccinated, countries can be seen in the excess deaths. SA paid a terrible price in the waves that built up enough immunity for them to cope with omicron the way they did. Vaccination achieved the same goal with far fewer deaths.

_117073839_southafrica_excess_deaths_16feb-nc.png
 
Pogue Mahone said:
The difference between SA and other, more vaccinated, countries can be seen in the excess deaths. SA paid a terrible price in the waves that built up enough immunity for them to cope with omicron the way they did. Vaccination achieved the same goal with far fewer deaths.
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Official figures (most likely under reported) state that 0.15% on our population have died.
In the UK official figures (most likely under reported) state that 0.22% have died.
These figures, even though they aren't 100% accurate, do not support your theory.

As someone I respect more than anyone in this forum, how would this pandemic have played out if no-one got vaccinated? The world has spent billions on these vaccines. How much of a difference have they really made? Please note, I am PRO-VACCINATION. I'm just trying to take a step back and observe.

What is more likely - the virus mutates into a less severe strain or the vaccinations lead us to pre-COVID paradise?

Edit: Most people who are in hospital now have not been vaccinated. Perhaps that is the retort my response deserves.
 
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Shakesey said:
Official figures (most likely under reported) state that 0.15% on our population have died.
In the UK official figures (most likely under reported) state that 0.22% have died.
These figures, even though they aren't 100% accurate, do not support your theory.

As someone I respect more than anyone in this forum, how would this pandemic have played out if no-one got vaccinated? The world has spent billions on these vaccines. How much of a difference have they really made? Please note, I am PRO-VACCINATIONS. I'm just trying to take a step back and observe.

What is more likely - the virus mutates into a less severe strain or the vaccinations lead us to pre-COVID paradise?

Edit: Most people who are in hospital now have not been vaccinated. Perhaps that is the retort my response deserves.
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When you're looking at the mortality in SA are you looking at the official covid deaths or excess deaths over average? From what I can see the official stats are 91,500 whilst excess deaths are 286,000 during the pandemic. The latter is a lot more likely to be the real figure unless something else happened during those 2 years.
 
Shakesey said:
Official figures (most likely under reported) state that 0.15% on our population have died.
In the UK official figures (most likely under reported) state that 0.22% have died.
These figures, even though they aren't 100% accurate, do not support your theory.

As someone I respect more than anyone in this forum, how would this epidemic have played out if no-one got vaccinated? The world has spent billions on these vaccines. How much of a difference have they really made? Please note, I am PRO-VACCINATIONS. I'm just trying to take a step back and observe.

What is more likely - the virus mutates into a less severe strain or the vaccinations lead us to pre-COVID paradise?

Edit: Most people who are in hospital now have not been vaccinated. Perhaps that is the retort my response deserves.
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Yes. The data is crystal clear. Being vaccinated makes a huge difference to whether or not you end up in ICU or dead. A consistent pattern in every single country where this data is available.

Accuracy of excess deaths reporting will vary from country to country. You can read more about this in the article I took that image from. It will also vary a lot depending on demographics (countries with older average age have much greater numbers at risk). But there’s absolutely no doubt about how effective vaccines have been at saving lives.
 
Shakesey said:
Official figures (most likely under reported) state that 0.15% on our population have died.
In the UK official figures (most likely under reported) state that 0.22% have died.
These figures, even though they aren't 100% accurate, do not support your theory.

As someone I respect more than anyone in this forum, how would this epidemic have played out if no-one got vaccinated? The world has spent billions on these vaccines. How much of a difference have they really made? Please note, I am PRO-VACCINATIONS. I'm just trying to take a step back and observe.

What is more likely - the virus mutates into a less severe strain or the vaccinations lead us to pre-COVID paradise?

Edit: Most people who are in hospital now have not been vaccinated. Perhaps that is the retort my response deserves.
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You have twice as much excess deaths as UK. Age-adjusted the difference would be much more. Bulgaria, least vaccinated country in Europe "leads" with twice as much as SA (4x UK, 14x Ireland, 25x Norway).
 
Balljy said:
When you're looking at the mortality in SA are you looking at the official covid deaths or excess deaths over average? From what I can see the official stats are 91,500 whilst excess deaths are 286,000 during the pandemic. The latter is a lot more likely to be the real figure unless something else happened during those 2 years.
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Pogue Mahone said:
Yes. The data is crystal clear. Being vaccinated makes a huge difference to whether or not you end up in ICU or dead. A consistent pattern in every single country where this data is available.

Accuracy of excess deaths reporting will vary from country to country. You can read more about this in the article I took that image from. It will also vary a lot depending on demographics (countries with older average age have much greater numbers at risk). But there’s absolutely no doubt about how effective vaccines have been at saving lives.
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Yes. You two win. And I'm happy to lose.
 
Shakesey said:
Christ, I hate siding with an anti-vaxxer here, but when this pandemic ends it'll be more down to immunity due to infection than immunity due to the vaccines... Case in point - South Africa. The majority hasn't been vaccinated, and yet our figures (and I don't think it's due to a lack of testing) are looking rather good. Look, I know vaccines are helping us to get out of this mess, but the Spanish Flu and numerous other infectious diseases have been beaten by mutating viruses or herd immunity through prior infection. I'm not belittling the influence the vaccines have had, but sometimes I feel we're maybe glorifying them just a tad too much... Surely all of you have secretly wondered if this mightn't be the case?
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Spanish flu still exists. It was 50 million deaths an herd immunity that ended the pandemic. It also probably originated in the far East.
 
Apart from the obvious catastrophic more deaths and people suffering long term consequences it would of been over a lot faster if we did nothing that's about it.

We have extended the length of the pandemic but in the process saved countless lives.
 
Bosws87 said:
Apart from the obvious catastrophic more deaths and people suffering long term consequences it would of been over a lot faster if we did nothing that's about it.

We have extended the length of the pandemic but in the process saved countless lives.
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Have we really extended the pandemic? What do you base this on?
 
Shakesey said:
Wow. I'm popular. Perhaps that is the lure of being an anti-vaxxer?
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saying stuff like the vaccines didn’t do anything that matters kind of leads to being what you call ‚popular‘ (it isn’t that)
you make people angry by spouting that nonsense, that’s all. It’s annoying, frustrating and sickening.
 
Rektsanwalt said:
saying stuff like the vaccines didn’t do anything that matters kind of leads to being what you call ‚popular‘ (it isn’t that)
you make people angry by spouting that nonsense, that’s all. It’s annoying, frustrating and sickening.
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Well, I never said the vaccines didn't do anything, so there is no need to be annoyed, frustrated or sick.
 
Stack said:
Have we really extended the pandemic? What do you base this on?
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its pretty self explanatory social distancing, working from home all the measures taking have prolonged it but bought us time to try and solve it, obviously not all countries are in the same position to do this.
 
@ManchesterYoda back with a bang. Just a few weeks ago he was making parallels between a PCR he refuses to take and a lobotomy. To be fair to him, it must bring back painful memories.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
:lol: Weren’t you posting a few weeks ago about some other random illness that you convinced yourself was covid?! I don’t think your immune system is near as strong as you think it is. You sound like quite a sickly person.
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Think he’s talking about that same time. At least he is consistent if nothing else. Oh by the way I had a spot on my ankle the other day. 63% sure it was Omicron!
 
Bosws87 said:
its pretty self explanatory social distancing, working from home all the measures taking have prolonged it but bought us time to try and solve it, obviously not all countries are in the same position to do this.
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Sorry, maybe Im thick but it doesnt seem self explanatory to me.
The ugly truth is that the social distancing, working from home measures were completely undone by people who didnt give a shit and there were a huge amount of those. "Absence of fear" as a driver of that apathy. We have spent so long not having to deal with this sort of thing there are literally generations who have not experienced the impact of this sort of thing.
 
Shakesey said:
Well, I never said the vaccines didn't do anything, so there is no need to be annoyed, frustrated or sick.
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you implied it…now stop being silly about it, you we’re talking shit and seem to understand that now, which is good

I will leave it at that
 
Rektsanwalt said:
you implied it…now stop being silly about it, you we’re talking shit and seem to understand that now, which is good

I will leave it at that
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I'm not being silly. I was questioning the truth. That is how each individual gets a better understanding of it. It's good you will leave it at that. It's a relief, really.
 
@Shakesey

The other problem with your theory is you’re effectively ignoring the future impact of vaccination. Take flu for example - I have no idea of the actual figures but speaking intuitively, without annual flu jags I presume “x” more people would die. But for a significant majority of the population the jab doesn’t do anything because they catch flu, build some immunity to the variant and carry on. Next year even if it mutates they catch it and same cycle. However for a small portion, if they didn’t take the vaccine they might die from that infection that year. The critical thing though is that the deaths most likely would only occur in that segment.

Once this becomes endemic, you will have a cohort of people who will get repeat infections and maintain immunity from that. But there is a cohort which, if they didn’t have a vaccine and got reinfected, have a higher chance of passing away. So you’re right in some ways that we will live with Covid with the largest portion of people getting by with infection and immunity. But the ones who could die, will likely need vaccination to supplement their immunity each year. And so whilst a small portion of the people will rely on it, as these are the ones most likely to die, the vaccine is significantly more important than immunity in death prevention.
 
rpitroda said:
@Shakesey

The other problem with your theory is you’re effectively ignoring the future impact of vaccination. Take flu for example - I have no idea of the actual figures but speaking intuitively, without annual flu jags I presume “x” more people would die. But for a significant majority of the population the jab doesn’t do anything because they catch flu, build some immunity to the variant and carry on. Next year even if it mutates they catch it and same cycle. However for a small portion, if they didn’t take the vaccine they might die from that infection that year. The critical thing though is that the deaths most likely would only occur in that segment.

Once this becomes endemic, you will have a cohort of people who will get repeat infections and maintain immunity from that. But there is a cohort which, if they didn’t have a vaccine and got reinfected, have a higher chance of passing away. So you’re right in some ways that we will live with Covid with the largest portion of people getting by with infection and immunity. But the ones who could die, will likely need vaccination to supplement their immunity each year. And so whilst a small portion of the people will rely on it, as these are the ones most likely to die, the vaccine is significantly more important than immunity in death prevention.
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Thanks for taking the time to respond. But please Rpitroda, don't call it "my theory". It isn't. I was just a little uncertain and needed to see the light again.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Here’s a good analysis of deaths.
  • After adjusting for region, population density, socio-demographic and household characteristics, the raised risk of death involving COVID-19 for people of Black ethnic background of all ages together was 2.0 times greater for males and 1.4 times greater for females compared with those of White ethnic background.
  • Males of Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Indian ethnic background also had a significantly higher risk of death involving COVID-19 (1.5 and 1.6 times, respectively) than White males once region, population density, socio-demographic and household characteristics were accounted for; whilst for females in Bangladeshi or Pakistani, Indian, Chinese and Mixed ethnic groups the risk of death involving COVID-19 was equivalent to White females.
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Tks.

I was interested because omicron started surging in Mumbai a few weeks ago. We are decently vaccinated but only with AZ and no boosters, but hospitalizations and cases rose and fell very quickly (faster than the UK/US as far as I can tell). Was wondering if it was a genetic difference underlying it, and UK is the one developed country with a big Indian population. But from that data, seems it's something else. Maybe weather.
 
berbatrick said:
Tks.

I was interested because omicron started surging in Mumbai a few weeks ago. We are decently vaccinated but only with AZ and no boosters, but hospitalizations and cases rose and fell very quickly (faster than the UK/US as far as I can tell). Was wondering if it was a genetic difference underlying it, and UK is the one developed country with a big Indian population. But from that data, seems it's something else. Maybe weather.
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That analysis is pre-omicron. So it is possible there’s a genetic difference. By far the most likely explanation is a much higher % with previous exposure to covid, combined with high proportion of most vulnerable sadly already dead (same as SA)
 
Tested positive this morning on a rapid self test, waiting for results on the pcr.
No symptoms at all as of now.
 
Shakesey said:
Christ, I hate siding with an anti-vaxxer here, but when this pandemic ends it'll be more down to immunity due to infection than immunity due to the vaccines... Case in point - South Africa. The majority hasn't been vaccinated, and yet our figures (and I don't think it's due to a lack of testing) are looking rather good. Look, I know vaccines are helping us to get out of this mess, but the Spanish Flu and numerous other infectious diseases have been beaten by mutating viruses or herd immunity through prior infection. I'm not belittling the influence the vaccines have had, but sometimes I feel we're maybe glorifying them just a tad too much... Surely all of you have secretly wondered if this mightn't be the case?
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Not really because I think off the global death rate.. 5.5million dead.. that we know off.. with the help of vaccines. I dread to think what it would have been like with no vaccine help. It would have been even more rampant and even more deadly. God knows what kind of variants we’d be dealing with now. The Spanish flu didn’t have to deal with mass global travel
 
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