SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Well, it finally got me. I'm covid positive. Got tested positive on arrival when I got back home from holiday. Symptoms showed up the next day. Had a super sore throat and was feeling a bit feverish second day of symptoms, but am feeling better 3rd day onwards.

I'm just thankful symptoms aren't worse and I only caught it on arrival back home. I'm boostered with PPM. I don't blame the vaccines. I got a feeling that boozing morning, day and night everyday for 2 weeks and then finishing a bottle of Glenfiddich 15 years on the final night finally took its toll on my immune system. :lol: :lol:
 
dal said:
If you are a modeller you build in worst case assumptions, even worse than you think, then even if you are wrong, it’s better than being optimistic and wrong the other way.

Also this wasn’t exactly easy to predict, just modellers looking after their Livelihoods or someone else’s.
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Sure you build in worst case and best case scenarios. You don’t set your parameters between shit and fecking shit. These things influence public policy.

And I’m not sure anyone’s saying it’s easy to predict but surely given how wrong they were we need to learn lessons as to why. Else they just become meaningless as politicians, much less the public, will take much note of what they say.

If we’re so relaxed about their inaccuracy then just throw a dart at the board. It’s cheaper. My issue isn’t with the fact they’re wrong as much as people who don’t see an issue with them being so wrong.
 
stw2022 said:
Sure you build in worst case and best case scenarios. You don’t set your parameters between shit and fecking shit. These things influence public policy.

And I’m not sure anyone’s saying it’s easy to predict but surely given how wrong they were we need to learn lessons as to why. Else they just become meaningless as politicians, much less the public, will take much note of what they say.

If we’re so relaxed about their inaccuracy then just throw a dart at the board. It’s cheaper. My issue isn’t with the fact they’re wrong as much as people who don’t see an issue with them being so wrong.
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You've completely lost me here. You think building ranged predictive models is equivalent to randomly selecting numbers?
 
My 3 year old daughters tested positive. Incredibly mild symptoms, literally just feeling a bit more tired and grumpy so did a LFT. Outbreak in her school. Sort of weird how kids have all just been sitting ducks, in effect, with regards to getting the virus. Also have sort of felt like I wanted to ride out pandemic without her getting it. But not feasible I guess for anybody unvaccinated.

So far negative myself. Will really be testing out booster efficacy as I was boosted in October and never had covid.
 
Sarni said:
Pandemic has been a great opportunity for mediocre doctors to make a name for themselves here and become valued for 'speaking the truth' that people want to hear.
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For sure. I think that UK anaesthetist would have passed FRCA, probably the toughest postgrad exam for doctors in the UK.
So definitely “intelligent” in one sense and not sure about mediocre but definitely not the sharpest tool in the shed if declined the jabs seeing what he must have.

but definitely I would say irresponsible to perpetuate his views but I agree. Contrarian docs like him are in minority but get an inordinate amount of air time to say their piece while simultaneously having a siege mentality in their supporters with false accusations of censorship
 
Nice piece of data from France where they've split the hospital and ICU admissions data between Omicron cases and Delta cases.

54% of their new hospitalisations are Omicron infected patients, but only 19% of their ICU admissions. It comes with the usual provisos - it's still early days for Omicron hospital cases, and ICU proportions may change. However it's certainly in line with the UK experience where the total number of patients in ICU is currently falling, despite the massive rise in Omicron cases.

 
stw2022 said:
Sure you build in worst case and best case scenarios. You don’t set your parameters between shit and fecking shit. These things influence public policy.

And I’m not sure anyone’s saying it’s easy to predict but surely given how wrong they were we need to learn lessons as to why. Else they just become meaningless as politicians, much less the public, will take much note of what they say.

If we’re so relaxed about their inaccuracy then just throw a dart at the board. It’s cheaper. My issue isn’t with the fact they’re wrong as much as people who don’t see an issue with them being so wrong.
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Its because the disease course prediction models of epidemiology is a fake science.There are too many unknowns which influence the course of population spread, so you throw in garbage features and get garbage output. It’s mostly for people who read ‘respectable’ media sources who like to say they’re following the science. Invariably when you have 100s of modellers, one will be right and claim victory, much like the 1000 monkeys with typewriters can write Shakespeare quip.

It really is a waste of time.
 
Ludens the Red said:
Queue outrage on Twitter from people “never stepping foot in IKEA again”.

Just for this I’m now going to start going to IKEA. They’ve won a customer today.
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On a similar note, the first supermarket that bans shoppers who are not wearing masks (unless medical exemption) will get my custom. Sick of people wandering around, picking stuff up/putting it down and no masks.. I know there are some reasons but locally to me, it's half the fecking store.
 
BeforeKeanetherewasRobson said:
On a similar note, the first supermarket that bans shoppers who are not wearing masks (unless medical exemption) will get my custom. Sick of people wandering around, picking stuff up/putting it down and no masks.. I know there are some reasons but locally to me, it's half the fecking store.
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How else do you expect people to shop?
 
F-Red said:
Hazmat suits are the only way for some folk before they feel comfortable mixing.
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Again, I think if you read his whole post he just wants people to wear a mask.

Are you ok?
 
Would appreciate some guidance - office setting where there is no open windows but there is an aircon. All the other people don't wear masks. Does my wearing of a mask make a difference or is it inevitable that I'll get Covid
 
Traub said:
Would appreciate some guidance - office setting where there is no open windows but there is an aircon. All the other people don't wear masks. Does my wearing of a mask make a difference or is it inevitable that I'll get Covid
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Is it Fresh Air in AC or split unit recirc ?

You'll probably get it either way if someone has it however might be slower if your HVAC is bringing in fresh air and extracting stale
 
McGrathsipan said:
Is it Fresh Air in AC or split unit recirc ?

You'll probably get it either way if someone has it however might be slower if your HVAC is bringing in fresh air and extracting stale
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Not sure, it’s central AC in the building but no idea on the freshness. Silver lining is I’m in Gauteng and the cases are falling pretty quickly. So here’s hoping omicron is over.
 
BeforeKeanetherewasRobson said:
On a similar note, the first supermarket that bans shoppers who are not wearing masks (unless medical exemption) will get my custom. Sick of people wandering around, picking stuff up/putting it down and no masks.. I know there are some reasons but locally to me, it's half the fecking store.
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Half the store is still good, my work took me to Sweden last month, I saw maybe 10 masks in total my whole stay (5 days) and my Swedish colleagues made fun of me for wearing one while we took a stroll around Gothenburg.
 
Denis79 said:
Half the store is still good, my work took me to Sweden last month, I saw maybe 10 masks in total my whole stay (5 days) and my Swedish colleagues made fun of me for wearing one whrn we took a stroll around Gothenburg.
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Coincidentally, I went to Sweden a few weeks ago too (to see daughter who's at Uni in Stockholm - great city b.t.w if get chance).

Mask at Liverpool airport (obvs), mask on plane, mask in airport there. Got bag and on Arlanda Express (shuttle from airport to and from city) and when I got off, I didn't see another person with a mask for hours.

There 4 days, saw about 20 masks in that time... came back, tested, negative. Home 3 weeks, hardly gone anywhere, felt ill last week, tested, positive. :rolleyes:
 
tombombadil said:
I got a feeling that boozing morning, day and night everyday for 2 weeks and then finishing a bottle of Glenfiddich 15 years on the final night finally took its toll on my immune system. :lol: :lol:
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It is the toll on social distancing when drinking that it often the issue :)
 
People who criticise modelling always seem to be those who don't like any restrictions.

Modelling is a tool and one that has been very useful during the pandemic. It has saved many lives.

And modelling here has been very good if a bit conservative. In mid Dec modelling suggested that NSW could have 25k infections per day by late Jan. #scottyfrommarketing and his evil clown posse went hard that this was pessimistic worst case scenario stuff that wasn't going happen.

Omicron: hold my beer

It took ten days (not 6 weeks) and now we are probably at 200k per day nationwide but hard to know with testing overwhelmed.
 
BeforeKeanetherewasRobson said:
Coincidentally, I went to Sweden a few weeks ago too (to see daughter who's at Uni in Stockholm - great city b.t.w if get chance).

Mask at Liverpool airport (obvs), mask on plane, mask in airport there. Got bag and on Arlanda Express (shuttle from airport to and from city) and when I got off, I didn't see another person with a mask for hours.

There 4 days, saw about 20 masks in that time... came back, tested, negative. Home 3 weeks, hardly gone anywhere, felt ill last week, tested, positive. :rolleyes:
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Sorry to hear mate, hope it goes well.
 
BeforeKeanetherewasRobson said:
Coincidentally, I went to Sweden a few weeks ago too (to see daughter who's at Uni in Stockholm - great city b.t.w if get chance).

Mask at Liverpool airport (obvs), mask on plane, mask in airport there. Got bag and on Arlanda Express (shuttle from airport to and from city) and when I got off, I didn't see another person with a mask for hours.

There 4 days, saw about 20 masks in that time... came back, tested, negative. Home 3 weeks, hardly gone anywhere, felt ill last week, tested, positive. :rolleyes:
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Solution… more masks in UK supermarkets.:p
 
Denis79 said:
Sorry to hear mate, hope it goes well.
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All good ta. My experience of This variant is proving what they said… very transmissible and (generally) less severe symptoms. Fortunate only had now (this variant/triple jabbed) as opposed to start of ‘21 or even ‘20.

Started Wednesday, felt like a very bad flu and Friday/Saturday worst… did a LFT this evening and negative. Will hopefully do the same for next two then I’m free of this fecking room :)

(Ps. Ain’t Sweden cool place?)
 
Regulus Arcturus Black said:
And vice versa.
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I treat modelling like anything else - I don't like it when it is spot on and ignore it when it isn't. It is a useful tool. You are bound to get a range of outcomes which is why it is modelling. Without it you are really just guessing.
 
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Apparently Canada has had more cases since Omicron was discovered than in the whole of 2020.
 
Modelling is a little like weather forecasting, most of the time its pretty good, every now and then it gets things wrong but its in general a useful tool to give us a decent indication of whats coming. Amusingly when it does get the weather wrong everyone moans about how the weather forecasts are always wrong, completely ignoring the fact its usually relatively close.
 
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