SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[africanspur]

Well for his sake I do hope so. If he is raking in the money outside of his traditional job, you have to believe he must enjoy his traditional job somewhat of coming to work and helping sick people. But fcuk him right let’s sack him and try and smear him just for having the audacity to ask why. Let’s not query why the man responsible for this decision ultimately could barely look him in the face or string a sentence together like the useless weasel he is. At a time where the NHS is struggling for staff too it beggars belief.

Let's be perfectly clear here. It isn't Javid who has made the decision, or the Tory party. They're being guided by actual experts in decisions like this (ie not this doctor, who is not). Particularly when as a party, they've been loath to make any kind of decision on any kind of restrictions at all.

Anyone who's worked in a hospital setting in the past 18 months and particularly in an ICU and decided not to get vaccinated is, in my opinion, an utter cretin. Even more so when you're a doctor who technically has been taught the ability to interpret studies and data for yourself.

The fact he's talking about how the evidence isn't strong enough, whilst ignoring the incredibly strong evidence at the very least that it prevents serious illness is quite something. The fact he choose to air these views, in the way he does, on national TV, knowing how it will 100% be taken, is something else. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt but the mask certainly sticks out like a sore thumb as well.

The fact that he's also into this wellness angle is just the cherry on the top.

 

[Wolverine]

Well for his sake I do hope so. If he is raking in the money outside of his traditional job, you have to believe he must enjoy his traditional job somewhat of coming to work and helping sick people. But fcuk him right let’s sack him and try and smear him just for having the audacity to ask why. Let’s not query why the man responsible for this decision ultimately could barely look him in the face or string a sentence together like the useless weasel he is. At a time where the NHS is struggling for staff too it beggars belief.

NHS struggling with staff absences from covid though.
If he wanted to help sick people he’d be promoting the cheap, safe and effective vaccines that negate ICU admissions with associated mortality and morbidity and strain the NHS through expensive, prolonged and debilitating hospital stays.

there is debate to be had sure. He didnt want that, he ambushed a non medical person on national tele. If he’d went about it by arguing in medical journals he’d have his ass handed to him.

 

[golden_blunder]

Well for his sake I do hope so. If he is raking in the money outside of his traditional job, you have to believe he must enjoy his traditional job somewhat of coming to work and helping sick people. But fcuk him right let’s sack him and try and smear him just for having the audacity to ask why. Let’s not query why the man responsible for this decision ultimately could barely look him in the face or string a sentence together like the useless weasel he is. At a time where the NHS is struggling for staff too it beggars belief.

Is he working NHS though? He’s charging extortionate private prices which is why I was being sarcastic.
Any health care worker in my opinion has a duty to be fully vaccinated or work somewhere where you aren’t face to face with vulnerable people

 

[Pexbo]

The fact he lists “Advanced Practice Modules in GI and Detox in Nashville in 2018” as credentials on his website is a huge red flag. That and “Wellness lead”.

Ironically that shit is catnip for antivaxxers

 

[africanspur]

That's the problem with politicians I suppose. They're unqualified for practically every role they take on. I get that he may have been reluctant to get into a conversation with a health prefessional but I'd expect a health secretary, during a pandemic that's been going on for two years, to be clued up enough to be able to have a conversation around waning antibodies and why vaccines/boosters are recommended and to discuss whether his immunity from getting covid, however long ago, is on a par with someone who had just had their booster.

I noticed that about the mask alright. It was nearly off his nose at one point. The whole set up was a bit bizarre. Do they not vet who'd be on camera or did he just wander in to give his two cents? If Javid was asking, expecting kick-back, he didn't seem very prepared and has ended up allowing this message go out which will be lapped up by anti-vaxxers.

I mean yes but realistically even if the MoH was a doctor, they'd still be guided by actual experts on these decisions. They could be a Cardiologist or a GP or Paediatrician and still not be particularly strong on immunology/infectious diseases/ public health. These are things people spend literally decades studying.

Javid will have seen a potential PR disaster looming, whereby a non-medical person tries to argue with a consultant anaesthetist/ ICU doctor about Covid and science. He was in a no-win situation and I think he couldn't have really done much differently.

As I said above, his mistake was asking that gormless question in the first place.

 

[Member 55443]

Let's be perfectly clear here. It isn't Javid who has made the decision, or the Tory party. They're being guided by actual experts in decisions like this (ie not this doctor, who is not). Particularly when as a party, they've been loath to make any kind of decision on any kind of restrictions at all.

Anyone who's worked in a hospital setting in the past 18 months and particularly in an ICU and decided not to get vaccinated is, in my opinion, an utter cretin. Even more so when you're a doctor who technically has been taught the ability to interpret studies and data for yourself.

The fact he's talking about how the evidence isn't strong enough, whilst ignoring the incredibly strong evidence at the very least that it prevents serious illness is quite something. The fact he choose to air these views, in the way he does, on national TV, knowing how it will 100% be taken, is something else.

The fact that he's also into this wellness angle is just the cherry on the top.

Sorry but ultimately it is their decision and they’re the ones who are responsible for it and must be able to justify it. From day 1 Boris and Co have rammed it down our throats that they are listening to ‘the experts’ - call me a cynic but I feel this has always just been a cloak of self preservation and a way to pass responsibility, at least in the eyes of the public, onto someone else when they inevitably get things wrong. Given that a group of experts can in good faith have very different views - it’s still the government ministers who take it all into account and then make their own choices, so I don’t buy this notion that poor old Javid and friends simply get to wipe their hands of any responsibility and accountability.

 

[africanspur]

Is he working NHS though? He’s charging extortionate private prices which is why I was being sarcastic.
Any health care worker in my opinion has a duty to be fully vaccinated or work somewhere where you aren’t face to face with vulnerable people

Yep, he seems to be a consultant at Kings College Hospital, one of the biggest teaching hospitals in London.

Realistically, the private sector in the UK isn't really big enough for most doctors to sustain themselves through just private work so the overwhelming majority, even the lucky ones who make a bucket load through private work, tend to keep their feet in the NHS pool. Some specialties (mostly procedural ones like Surgery/ Gastroenterology/ O&G etc) have more scope for private work too.

Of course if he loses his job because of this and the private isn't enough, I'm sure he can go the Wakefield route.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I mean yes but realistically even if the MoH was a doctor, they'd still be guided by actual experts on these decisions. They could be a Cardiologist or a GP or Paediatrician and still not be particularly strong on immunology/infectious diseases/ public health. These are things people spend literally decades studying.

Javid will have seen a potential PR disaster looming, whereby a non-medical person tries to argue with a consultant anaesthetist/ ICU doctor about Covid and science. He was in a no-win situation and I think he couldn't have really done much differently.

As I said above, his mistake was asking that gormless question in the first place.

Ah. I misinterpreted your post above. I thought you were wondering why the doctor interrupted. Yes, it was an absolutely idiotic question from Javid. I guess that can happen when you’re live on camera and run out of things to say. But the obvious lack of any preparation and reliance on doing it all off the cuff is classic BoJo toryism.

 

[Member 55443]

Is he working NHS though? He’s charging extortionate private prices which is why I was being sarcastic.
Any health care worker in my opinion has a duty to be fully vaccinated or work somewhere where you aren’t face to face with vulnerable people

Not sure mate I assumed he was a NHS employee given he is facing the sack but perhaps does a bit of moonlighting based on what others have said. I’m not really interested in him personally I just think he raised a fair point and exposed Javid for the inept prick he is.

 

[Wibble]

The fact he lists “Advanced Practice Modules in GI and Detox in Nashville in 2018” as credentials on his website is a huge red flag. That and “Wellness lead”.

Tin foil hat naturapath quack. The penalty should involve baseball bats. At least should if I weren't a pacifist.

 

[Member 55443]

Tin foil hat naturapath quack. The penalty should involve baseball bats. At least should if I weren't a pacifist.

You are the most terrifying pacifist on the planet

 

[africanspur]

Sorry but ultimately it is their decision and they’re the ones who are responsible for it and must be able to justify it. From day 1 Boris and Co have rammed it down our throats that they are listening to ‘the experts’ - call me a cynic but I feel this has always just been a cloak of self preservation and a way to pass responsibility, at least in the eyes of the public, onto someone else when they inevitably get things wrong. Given that a group of experts can in good faith have very different views - it’s still the government ministers who take it all into account and then make their own choices, so I don’t buy this notion that poor old Javid and friends simply get to wipe their hands of any responsibility and accountability.

I'm struggling to understand your point here.

Do you think Javid and Johnson woke up one day and decided to just mandate vaccines for NHS staff on a whim? For a laugh? This is the same party that has to have a civil war every time it tries to pass even the mildest of Covid restrictions and where they have to send government ministers out on TV to plead about how they're only doing this because there is no other choice and its just temporary etc etc.

Whether its the right decision or not is another matter but they'll have been advised on what to do by medical and scientific experts. Of course sometimes they won't follow that advice because what may make sense from a narrow infectious disease/public health route, may not be the best overall decision for the country. Sometimes they won't because they're Tory cnuts and have other ideas. Sometimes like you said its a balance because different experts say different things and someone will have to make the decision. As you say, a group of experts can have different views and sometimes experts can become so sub-specialised that they become myopic in their views to literally anything other than their field.

Sometimes on this board I feel people are so blinded by their hatred of the Tories (rightly so in fairness) that they will believe some very random things. Reminds me of when the Kent variant first popped up and increased transmission and case numbers compared to the rest of Europe and some otherwise very sensible posters on here genuinely believed they were making up the variant as an excuse for their ineptness.

I've already made my own views clear on this board multiple times about my own discomfort about some of the measures being undertaken in Italy/France etc. Particularly when I keep on being told about how well those countries are doing with controlling Covid through their previous harsh measures....Mandating vaccines and health checks for health professionals though is not at all a new thing. In fact, you can't even get into medical school in the UK without evidence of about 10 different vaccination records.

 

[africanspur]

Ah. I misinterpreted your post above. I thought you were wondering why the doctor interrupted. Yes, it was an absolutely idiotic question from Javid. I guess that can happen when you’re live on camera and run out of things to say. But the obvious lack of any preparation and reliance on doing it all off the cuff is classic BoJo toryism.

True. We may be being unfair and perhaps there was a 50 minute long discussion prior that we weren't privy to and he just slipped and said it.

From a political pov, its just such a ridiculous question, with no upside though. Even if everyone agrees, what's he gained by asking the question. The downside is exactly what's happened.

Idiot.

 

[Member 55443]

I'm struggling to understand your point here.

Do you think Javid and Johnson woke up one day and decided to just mandate vaccines for NHS staff on a whim? For a laugh? This is the same party that has to have a civil war every time it tries to pass even the mildest of Covid restrictions and where they have to send government ministers out on TV to plead about how they're only doing this because there is no other choice and its just temporary etc etc.

Whether its the right decision or not is another matter but they'll have been advised on what to do by medical and scientific experts. Of course sometimes they won't follow that advice because what may make sense from a narrow infectious disease/public health route, may not be the best overall decision for the country. Sometimes they won't because they're Tory cnuts and have other ideas. Sometimes like you said its a balance because different experts say different things and someone will have to make the decision. As you say, a group of experts can have different views and sometimes experts can become so sub-specialised that they become myopic in their views to literally anything other than their field.

Sometimes on this board I feel people are so blinded by their hatred of the Tories (rightly so in fairness) that they will believe some very random things. Reminds me of when the Kent variant first popped up and increased transmission and case numbers compared to the rest of Europe and some otherwise very sensible posters on here genuinely believed they were making up the variant as an excuse for their ineptness.

I've already made my own views clear on this board multiple times about my own discomfort about some of the measures being undertaken in Italy/France etc. Particularly when I keep on being told about how well those countries are doing with controlling Covid through their previous harsh measures....Mandating vaccines and health checks for health professionals though is not at all a new thing. In fact, you can't even get into medical school in the UK without evidence of about 10 different vaccination records.

I don’t necessarily disagree with you here, my point is that if Javid is responsible for this decision (he absolutely is) he should be able to fully justify it to the guys face, after all he is sealing his fate. If he really is sure about this decision and feels fully justified in putting his name behind it, presumably having considered a whole number of factors and strongly believes this is the correct path forward, as he should if he is to enact something like this - he should be able to without hesitation. The fact that he instead stuttered, cowered and squirmed makes me think twice..

 

[Pogue Mahone]

True. We may be being unfair and perhaps there was a 50 minute long discussion prior that we weren't privy to and he just slipped and said it.

From a political pov, its just such a ridiculous question, with no upside though. Even if everyone agrees, what's he gained by asking the question. The downside is exactly what's happened.

Idiot.

The only upside I can imagine is he can give the impression that “we want to listen the opinions of our frontline workers on this potentially controversial issue”, while
expecting zero chance of any push-back. That went well.

 

[Member 55443]

The only upside I can imagine is he can give the impression that “we want to listen the opinions of our frontline workers on this potentially controversial issue”, while
expecting zero chance of any push-back. That went well.

It’s like he is so far detached from the frontline he forgot that the decisions he’s making actually impacts real people. Staggeringly David Brent like.

 

[11101]

I can't understand why the UK continues to give oxygen to these people. How many people watch that and have their mind made up not to get the vaccine. That would never be shown here.

I've been in the UK a month over Christmas and it's everywhere. Even as simple as the transport announcements 'please wear a mask, unless you are exempt, and remember some people's exemptions might not be visible'. Why say that?

 

[Tarrou]

I’m sure all Tories have been told to under absolutely no circumstances ever to get into a debate on the vaccines in public

little upside and a metric feck tonne of downside

 

[Member 55443]

I can't understand why the UK continues to give oxygen to these people. How many people watch that and have their mind made up not to get the vaccine. That would never be shown here.

I've been in the UK a month over Christmas and it's everywhere. Even as simple as the transport announcements 'please wear a mask, unless you are exempt, and remember some people's exemptions might not be visible'. Why say that?

How many people do you think there still are who have genuinely not made their mind up already? To the bolded point; so that people with medical exemptions don't end up getting verbally or even physically abused by the vicious mob? You really have to ask that?

 

[11101]

How many people do you think there still are who have genuinely not made their mind up already? To the bolded point; so that people with medical exemptions don't end up getting verbally or even physically abused by the vicious mob? You really have to ask that?

As people turn up for first jabs all the time, quite a few.

Anybody with an exemption will know they have an exemption, it doesnt need offering up to everybody. There's a constant subliminal message my wife and I have noticed that it's OK to question the government advice. That's perhaps why the UK vaccine rate is lower than others.

 

[Member 55443]

As people turn up for first jabs all the time, quite a few.

Anybody with an exemption will know they have an exemption, it doesnt need offering up to everybody. There's a constant subliminal message my wife and I have noticed that it's OK to question the government advice. That's perhaps why the UK vaccine rate is lower than others.

God forbid we lived in a country where it's not OK to question government advice! The message is not for the person with an exemption, it's for everybody else to serve as a reminder to remain courteous to your fellow passenger.

 

[golden_blunder]

People with exemptions would be wearing a lanyard no? For the rest it’s just an excuse

 

[decorativeed]

To be clear, based on that clip he’s not querying frequency of boosters, he’s saying he isn’t vaccinated at all. He’s also focussing on efficacy vs transmission and completely ignoring protection vs serious disease. Which is astonishing coming from someone who has surely been exposed to severely unwell covid patients. There’s no way you can spin what he said into anything other than dangerously misleading nonsense. Absolute shit-housery on his part.

Agreed. He seems to be taking the ridiculous 'it's not perfect, so I'm not interested' stance.

I live like a hermit at the best of times. I'm not really sociable and I work from home. I also have a long standing phobia of needles. Yet, despite this, I had my 3 vaccinations. It's bizarre to me that people who are trusted to provide health care to all sections of society are deciding not to bother, as it only reduces transmissiblity rather than stops it completely.

 

[Member 55443]

People with exemptions would be wearing a lanyard no? For the rest it’s just an excuse

They might do, they might not. I don’t think they’re compelled to. Too dystopian for a lot of people I think.

 

[golden_blunder]

They might do, they might not. I don’t think they’re compelled to. Too dystopian for a lot of people I think.

Well if they are so worried about people having a go they have a way to show they don’t need to wear one so they can’t be that bothered

 

[Member 55443]

Well if they are so worried about people having a go they have a way to show they don’t need to wear one so they can’t be that bothered

So hypothetically if someone with an exemption got assaulted for not wearing a mask, who would you blame?

 

[Bosws87]

Subliminal message some of you are just as nuts as the people you are moaning about

 

[africanspur]

So hypothetically if someone with an exemption got assaulted for not wearing a mask, who would you blame?

The person assaulting. Even if there were no exemptions, it would still be the person assaulting. There shouldn't be vigilante justice for any reason.

I find it interesting how many more people seem to be exempt from wearing masks in the UK though compared to other European countries.

 

[Bosws87]

The person assaulting. Even if there were no exemptions, it would still be the person assaulting. There shouldn't be vigilante justice for any reason.

I find it interesting how many more people seem to be exempt from wearing masks in the UK though compared to other European countries.

Its not really that interesting, we just have a bunch of idiots like every other country in the world theres no deep meaning to it obviously some people will have a genuine reason a lot will take the piss just like the majority of countries in the world unless you are under some ridiculous oppressive regime or government.

 

[decorativeed]

People with exemptions would be wearing a lanyard no? For the rest it’s just an excuse

I'd say not, as anyone can buy those lanyards and they serve no real purpose.

 

[Sparky Rhiwabon]

I'd say not, as anyone can buy those lanyards and they serve no real purpose.

Those lanyards are more designed to tell people that you’re on the autistic spectrum (or other similar hidden disability)

https://hiddendisabilitiesstore.com/

 

[2cents]

@Pogue Mahone , your boy Luke O’Neill going all-in here:

“By the time we get to March and April, it will be a different story entirely – watch…

…Because this is a seasonal virus, once we come into the spring, the counts will start to fall and the boosters will have worked, for definite…

…by the time we get to St Patrick’s Day, the virus will have gone away almost from Ireland, it will seem to be in the background.”

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/professor-luke-oneill-shares-more-25887529

 

[McGrathsipan]

@Pogue Mahone , your boy Luke O’Neill going all-in here:

“By the time we get to March and April, it will be a different story entirely – watch…

…Because this is a seasonal virus, once we come into the spring, the counts will start to fall and the boosters will have worked, for definite…

…by the time we get to St Patrick’s Day, the virus will have gone away almost from Ireland, it will seem to be in the background.”

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/professor-luke-oneill-shares-more-25887529

He's a bit of a dreamer

 

[Pogue Mahone]

@Pogue Mahone , your boy Luke O’Neill going all-in here:

“By the time we get to March and April, it will be a different story entirely – watch…

…Because this is a seasonal virus, once we come into the spring, the counts will start to fall and the boosters will have worked, for definite…

…by the time we get to St Patrick’s Day, the virus will have gone away almost from Ireland, it will seem to be in the background.”

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/professor-luke-oneill-shares-more-25887529

Lovely fella, Luke, but he’s always been biased to the positive. So I’d take that with a pinch of salt. Although I do kind of agree with him on this one. The sucker punch that could screw us over is, obviously, another variant but we might be lucky this time. Fingers crossed.

 

[Buster15]

Lots of talk about the government stopping free lateral flow test kits. On the basis that it is costing the treasury too much money. And therefore making people having to pay for them.

But the people pay for them already. Where do they think that the money comes from in the first place.

And all that is going to result in is a sharp increase in demand; people stockpiling them. With the likely consequence of more waste.... and cost.

 

[jojojo]

Just a couple of observations on the (much derided!) epidemic modelling for the UK. First and foremost that a model isn't a prediction, it's a "what happens if ..."

The models referred to as the October models were based on Delta. When the actual hospitalisations started to diverge from the expected, we accelerated the booster campaign in the over 50s and that started pulling the numbers down again.

LSHTM December was the first attempt to analyse the impact of Omicron using the early data from SA and elsewhere, and the lab work being done globally - this is the "some behavioural changes, more vaccines," version of the model. The response was to bring in the rest of the plan B controls and massively increase the booster program - which they hoped would do enough to keep us inside this "some reduction in contacts, some reduction in infections/hospitalisations due to boosters and new vaccinations" curve.

In terms of the numbers now. Though you have to dig down into this week's reports to see it, the hospitalisations are starting to flatten. It still looks as if we are somewhere in that LSHTM curve, but we may be heading to the lower, flatter version of it.

At any rate, that's why there are unlikely to be any major rule changes in England - it's behaving pretty much as was expected in early December. It's now almost entirely about how long can the NHS sustain that admission level for. That's mostly about staffing and other demands on the health and care system Vs the vaccines (and prior infection) plus anything about Omicron itself leading to fewer and shorter hospital stays.

 

[jojojo]

Current data on age distribution says in the North, a bigger proportion of cases are in the 60+ groups compared to London (where the majority are in the under 40s). So it's still not quite clear how that will play out over the next couple of weeks. Plus, I'll throw in - Christmas/New year aren't normal times - next week we'll start to see schools and colleges back in action. All, very fragile stuff when it comes to predictions etc.

So (with those provisos about guessing where we're heading) an update on the England NHS current stats, this time from the guy who represents the hospital trusts.

 

[0le]

First and foremost that a model isn't a prediction, it's a "what happens if ..."

You are using the model to make a prediction.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_model#General_remarks

There are three purposes for a statistical model, according to Konishi & Kitagawa.[6]

• Predictions
• Extraction of information
• Description of stochastic structures

With regards to the hospitalisations flattening, maybe in the admittance we are starting to see it (see 1 or 3 month views):
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-patients_admitted_to_hospital

 

[Brwned]

You are using the model to make a prediction.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_model#General_remarks



With regards to the hospitalisations flattening, maybe in the admittance we are starting to see it (see 1 or 3 month views):
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-patients_admitted_to_hospital

They’re using the model to make a prediction under certain conditions, and in most of these cases they expect those conditions to change based on the prediction themselves. Hence it becomes a prediction of what would happen if we didn’t change this path based on the measures we subsequently recommend. Otherwise shortened to what if… in this case.

 

[0le]

They’re using the model to make a prediction under certain conditions, and in most of these cases they expect those conditions to change based on the prediction themselves. Hence it becomes a prediction of what would happen if we didn’t change this path based on the measures we subsequently recommend. Otherwise shortened to what if… in this case.

Which is not what was said by the other poster.