SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Interesting update from the chairman of NHS Providers - the local trusts who administer the NHS hospital system. Some discussion of "incidental covid" - people testing positive for covid who are in for something else, some encouraging news on severity and numbers if ICU patients - though inevitable coming with the cautionary note that we don't yet know what will happen as omicron rates rise in the older groups.

Also:
"Striking how many chief executives are saying that, on current evidence, they think omicron related staff absences may be a greater challenge than number of omicron related severely ill patients they have to treat."

 
Eboue said:


Just a complete failure of governance
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Isn't he basically telling the red States, "Don't make the fed government the evil Vaccination Nazis. If you want to save 'your' people speak up Repubs and save them. Or watch them die".

Basically Biden is damned if he goes national and he's damned if he goes state.
 
Droid_Repairs said:
I don't know what to make of this.

On the one hand, highest admissions since March sounds bad - but cases proportionate to infections remains relatively low, as do deaths.
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Deaths from Covid are low, but what about people who are missing out on cancer treatments and life saving surgery or treatments because of this?

Until we get to a point where the unvaccinated are given the middle finger at the front door and told to feck off our NHS is still going to be overloaded with these cnuts.
 
Mr Pigeon said:
Deaths from Covid are low, but what about people who are missing out on cancer treatments and life saving surgery or treatments because of this?

Until we get to a point where the unvaccinated are given the middle finger at the front door and told to feck off our NHS is still going to be overloaded with these cnuts.
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Unfortunately, well said.
 
Mr Pigeon said:
Deaths from Covid are low, but what about people who are missing out on cancer treatments and life saving surgery or treatments because of this?

Until we get to a point where the unvaccinated are given the middle finger at the front door and told to feck off our NHS is still going to be overloaded with these cnuts.
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I’d love to see a vaccination to work thing set up, as I know there is several of them in my place, including the supervisor, one of them is balls deep in conspiracies.
 
Suedesi said:
Just got my results, SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19): POSITIVE

Last 2 days have been very rough (fever, chills, dry throat, foggy head, extreme fatigue) - but thankfully no chest pains or difficulty breathing. Hoping to put this behind me soon.
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I’m in exactly the same boat right now. Nasty stuff.
 
Given that the UK is already 89% single vaxxed, 82% double vaxxed and 56% boosted, the current set of loose Covid restrictions seem to be designed to save the NHS from getting swamped, while also allowing the whole population to reach some semblance of herd immunity asap.

I think a lot hinges on whether reducing the isolation period to 7 days will free up enough medical staff in time for the inevitable coming surge. And, of course, that the surge itself isn't bigger than than the projections have predicted.

The fact that Scotland and NI have decided to err on the side of caution suggests that Boris is walking a fine line with his gamble. But I'm hopeful that he'll be right. I've got leave booked in February and I don't want to spend it at home.
 
Dante said:
Given that the UK is already 89% single vaxxed, 82% double vaxxed and 56% boosted, the current set of loose Covid restrictions seem to be designed to save the NHS from getting swamped, while also allowing the whole population to reach some semblance of herd immunity asap.

I think a lot hinges on whether reducing the isolation period to 7 days will free up enough medical staff in time for the inevitable coming surge. And, of course, that the surge itself isn't bigger than than the projections have predicted.

The fact that Scotland and NI have decided to err on the side of caution suggests that Boris is walking a fine line with his gamble. But I'm hopeful that he'll be right. I've got leave booked in February and I don't want to spend it at home.
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Are you sure on those numbers? Is that for above a certain age group or the entire population?
 
Stack said:
Are you sure on those numbers? Is that for above a certain age group or the entire population?
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Ah, yeah, sorry. I plugged in 57m instead of 67m as the UK population. It should be 76%, 70% and 48% for the entire population.

That being said, uptake for eligible over 12s it's 89.8%, 82.2% and 56.5%. So if we're bringing age into it, the real figures are even better.
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There was a bit of a pause after 23rd December because all the sites shut down. But I expect the vaccination program to pick up again this week.
 
Will omicron defeat the world's only successful 0-covid strategy?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...battles-biggest-community-outbreak-since-2020


Lockdown restrictions have been tightened in the Chinese city of Xi’an, which is battling the largest community outbreak the country has seen since the initial months of the pandemic when China brought thousands of daily infections under control.

Authorities reported 162 new community infections on Monday, up from 158 on Sunday. All but 10 of Monday’s new cases were reported in Shaanxi province, where 13 million residents of the capital Xi’an have been forced to stay in their homes for five days.

The lockdown is the first time China had implemented such severe measures since 2020, as authorities continue to doggedly pursue a “zero Covid” approach to stamp out all local infections ahead of the Beijing Winter Olympics in February.

Since the coronavirus first emerged in the central city of Wuhan in late 2019, China has largely kept the pandemic at bay with tight border restrictions, lengthy quarantines and targeted lockdowns. It has officially recorded only two deaths in over a year.

While low by international standards, the new case number marks the highest count of local symptomatic infections since March 2020, when the daily bulletin provided by the National Health Commission started to classify asymptomatic carriers separately. On Saturday, the country recorded the highest daily rise in local cases in 21 months as infections more than doubled in Xi’an. In total there have been 635 confirmed coronavirus cases during the 9 to 26 December period.
 
TheLiverBird said:
Exactly this for me
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There are generally some who want restrictions and lockdowns simply for the fun of it. Don’t know if it’s the WFH or hope that furlough returns, but you can see the appeal to some. Stay at home, work whenever, spend time with the family, no travelling to work, go out for that leisurely stroll and grab a takeaway coffee….. I wonder if they’d still want lockdowns if we had a Chinese style lockdown ? I doubt it.

Now don’t get me wrong, if hospitalisations become too much then yes it’s a sacrifice we have to make. But that’s the point it’s a sacrifice eg something I won’t enjoy and hope the need never arises but will accept as a last resort once the data and reality means that’s the only option. But there are some who genuinely seem to just want restrictions and lockdown simply for lifestyle reasons.
 
Dante said:
Given that the UK is already 89% single vaxxed, 82% double vaxxed and 56% boosted, the current set of loose Covid restrictions seem to be designed to save the NHS from getting swamped
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Is that just adults?
 
Ferguson’s Hairdryer said:
There are generally some who want restrictions and lockdowns simply for the fun of it. Don’t know if it’s the WFH or hope that furlough returns, but you can see the appeal to some. Stay at home, work whenever, spend time with the family, no travelling to work, go out for that leisurely stroll and grab a takeaway coffee….. I wonder if they’d still want lockdowns if we had a Chinese style lockdown ? I doubt it.

Now don’t get me wrong, if hospitalisations become too much then yes it’s a sacrifice we have to make. But that’s the point it’s a sacrifice eg something I won’t enjoy and hope the need never arises but will accept as a last resort once the data and reality means that’s the only option. But there are some who genuinely seem to just want restrictions and lockdown simply for lifestyle reasons.
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This just reinforces that the UK's "lockdown" wasn't really a lockdown at all. There were some restrictions which had a big impact on some groups of people (like folk in care homes who couldn't see their families, cancelled weddings and not being able to attend funerals of loved ones), but the general restrictions didn't prevent people from going out and about.
 
Constant lockdowns will also likely further dissuade people from having potential future vaccines. You wonder what impact it’ll have on take up of future jabs, especially in groups more naturally inclined to be resistant, when they start to notice that they’re placed under restrictions on a regular basis whether they’ve had it or not
 
stw2022 said:
Constant lockdowns will also likely further dissuade people from having potential future vaccines. You wonder what impact it’ll have on take up of future jabs, especially in groups more naturally inclined to be resistant, when they start to notice that they’re placed under restrictions on a regular basis whether they’ve had it or not
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What lockdowns? And how on earth will restrictions to restrict the spread dissuade anyone from getting vaccinated?
 
Covid restrictions in sweden now are strange. Case numbers have risen but less than a hundred people in icu in all of sweden and seemingly not rising sharply compared to last year. Average of ~5 covid deaths per day. If this strains our healthcare system it's because of severe underfunding and private actors looting the system. But it's convenient to blame ordinary people trying to just live their lives. At least people here aren't as divided and hateful towards eachother as you seem to be in UK.
 
Blodssvik said:
Covid restrictions in sweden now are strange. Case numbers have risen but less than a hundred people in icu in all of sweden and seemingly not rising sharply compared to last year. Average of ~5 covid deaths per day. If this strains our healthcare system it's because of severe underfunding and private actors looting the system. But it's convenient to blame ordinary people trying to just live their lives. At least people here aren't as divided and hateful towards eachother as you seem to be in UK.
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You have covid restrictions in Sweden?What are they?
 
Ferguson’s Hairdryer said:
There are generally some who want restrictions and lockdowns simply for the fun of it. Don’t know if it’s the WFH or hope that furlough returns, but you can see the appeal to some. Stay at home, work whenever, spend time with the family, no travelling to work, go out for that leisurely stroll and grab a takeaway coffee….. I wonder if they’d still want lockdowns if we had a Chinese style lockdown ? I doubt it.

Now don’t get me wrong, if hospitalisations become too much then yes it’s a sacrifice we have to make. But that’s the point it’s a sacrifice eg something I won’t enjoy and hope the need never arises but will accept as a last resort once the data and reality means that’s the only option. But there are some who genuinely seem to just want restrictions and lockdown simply for lifestyle reasons.
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I have the same thoughts as your first paragraph too mate

and I also agree with your second paragraph. If Hospitals are in serious peril with being over run with hospitalisations then of course most sensible people would accept further lockdowns/heavier restrictions. We are at a stage where they are ever so slightly rising again hitting figures nation wide at around 8,500 Covid patients with less than 1,000 in ICU’s

Pales in comparison too the 50,000 Covid related patients we had in our hospitals at one time during the height of the second wave.

The vaccination program has been outstanding in keeping hospital numbers so low. Which is why my get a little irritated when I see talk of further restrictions or possible lockdowns when the current state seems perfectly manageable thus far with slight increases being a million miles away from worrying.
 
Ferguson’s Hairdryer said:
There are generally some who want restrictions and lockdowns simply for the fun of it. Don’t know if it’s the WFH or hope that furlough returns, but you can see the appeal to some. Stay at home, work whenever, spend time with the family, no travelling to work, go out for that leisurely stroll and grab a takeaway coffee….. I wonder if they’d still want lockdowns if we had a Chinese style lockdown ? I doubt it.

Now don’t get me wrong, if hospitalisations become too much then yes it’s a sacrifice we have to make. But that’s the point it’s a sacrifice eg something I won’t enjoy and hope the need never arises but will accept as a last resort once the data and reality means that’s the only option. But there are some who genuinely seem to just want restrictions and lockdown simply for lifestyle reasons.
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Middle class people generally did quite well in lockdown, so it's not surprise those are the ones who seem eager to return to those restrictions.
 
Mogget said:
Middle class people generally did quite well in lockdown, so it's not surprise those are the ones who seem eager to return to those restrictions.
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You could also swap “class” for “aged”. Right now, I couldn’t give a shit about night clubs being shuttered, or limitations on how many people are allowed in bars. Twenty years ago it would have been absolute agony.
 
TheLiverBird said:
The vaccination program has been outstanding in keeping hospital numbers so low. Which is why my get a little irritated when I see talk of further restrictions or possible lockdowns when the current state seems perfectly manageable thus far with slight increases being a million miles away from worrying.
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The worry is always that if you look at today's hospital stats you're effectively always about two weeks out of date. Where case rates are growing fast (and we know Omicron cases are capable of doubling in two days) that could mean that there are a lot of hospitalisations/deaths already in the queue.

Some countries and people want to act as if some of those potential doublings have already happened, and to stop it doubling again before it's too late.

The UK, looking at a combination of SA data and its own (mostly London) data, have decided they can wait to see what really happens to case rates and hospitalisations. The timing is terrible - Christmas sees massive intergenerational mixing and New Year usually means a lot of strangers or occasional contacts meet up. But, looking at the data, it really still looks possible we can ride it out. With no restrictions, other than the self-imposed ones or with restrictions that don't start until we know more, rather than just because we fear more.

Incidentally, when I say ride it out - that's not because I dismiss the deaths or the suffering, it's that I suspect the only choice we have is between them taking place in January and them being spread over the next 3 months. I lost three family members in the first wave, I've got vulnerable family members now. I don't take it lightly. However, I do believe that life does have to go on, and that while new lockdowns and restrictions are only minor inconveniences for some they are seriously damaging for others - whether financially, educationally or emotionally.
 
Blodssvik said:
They are not very strict but basically means no nightclubs, limited access to pubs, live concerts and sports. Something I can deal with but shouldn't have to.
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I guess they'll be removed as/when they know more about the risks posed by Omicron? Denmark and the UK should have a lot of data in the next two weeks.

If the news is bad, those restrictions won't be enough but they may have kept starting numbers low enough to cope better, and without really strong measures. If the news is good, then they may have gone in three weeks time.
 
Wibble said:
What lockdowns? And how on earth will restrictions to restrict the spread dissuade anyone from getting vaccinated?
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The sales pitch in most of Europe was that the vaccine was the road back to normality. That was given as a reason why we needed restrictions - to give time for vaccine development and rollout. It was given as an inducement to the young (and the naive) who imagined they were invulnerable to covid to get vaccinated anyway.

The pandemic and the lockdowns were massively painful (financially and emotionally) for some people. Meanwhile, others benefited financially, enjoyed the lack of a daily commute, and weren't bothered by most of the impositions. Even so, most people felt the pain of not seeing family/friends as they had before, or of not being able to travel freely.

Like I say, the vaccines, masks, restrictions weren't just sold on personal health benefits, or even as a way to protect others. They were sold to people as the way out of a crisis and back towards a normal life.
 
In Denmark, the region that include Copenhagen, has stated today that 1/3 of hospitalizations registered as Covid cases is actually only a byproduct of other procedures where the hospitalized just so happens to have Covid as well. It seems like a lot of the patients in the psych wards have covid
 
fellwin said:
In Denmark, the region that include Copenhagen, has stated today that 1/3 of hospitalizations registered as Covid cases is actually only a byproduct of other procedures where the hospitalized just so happens to have Covid as well. It seems like a lot of the patients in the psych wards have covid
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Do they indicate how many of those cases are amongst people who caught it in hospital or similar settings?
 
TheLiverBird said:
I have the same thoughts as your first paragraph too mate

and I also agree with your second paragraph. If Hospitals are in serious peril with being over run with hospitalisations then of course most sensible people would accept further lockdowns/heavier restrictions. We are at a stage where they are ever so slightly rising again hitting figures nation wide at around 8,500 Covid patients with less than 1,000 in ICU’s

Pales in comparison too the 50,000 Covid related patients we had in our hospitals at one time during the height of the second wave.

The vaccination program has been outstanding in keeping hospital numbers so low. Which is why my get a little irritated when I see talk of further restrictions or possible lockdowns when the current state seems perfectly manageable thus far with slight increases being a million miles away from worrying.
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Agreed fully. Rationality is the best and only way forward. We’ve done a great job with the vaccinations and should enjoy the benefits it’s offering us and remain optimistic as long as the data regarding hospitalisations and deaths affords us to do so.
 
Posting this not necessarily as an endorsement, but I think many are coming around to this point of view right now (note he is a UCL professor who, according to Wikipedia, “led the first large-scale sequencing project of the Sars-CoV2 genome”):





 
Penna said:
This just reinforces that the UK's "lockdown" wasn't really a lockdown at all. There were some restrictions which had a big impact on some groups of people (like folk in care homes who couldn't see their families, cancelled weddings and not being able to attend funerals of loved ones), but the general restrictions didn't prevent people from going out and about.
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lockdown 1 was pretty strict and strongly enforced. The second lockdown from Jan to March was more lenient in regards to being outdoors . For that i assumed it was based on what they had learnt about the virus.
 
jojojo said:
Do they indicate how many of those cases are amongst people who caught it in hospital or similar settings?
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They might have, unfortunately the finer details are only available in a report directly to the government, which might be public, but I haven’t found it.


However, anecdotically my sister is a doctor in a cancer ward, and she says almost all of their covid infections happen after the patients (quite sick as it’s a ward for the less treatable cancers) are hospitalized
 
Mogget said:
Middle class people generally did quite well in lockdown, so it's not surprise those are the ones who seem eager to return to those restrictions.
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I doubt they would have the same enthusiasm if they weren’t being paid holiday through furlough.
 
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