SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Massive Spanner said:
It might be! All I’m saying is that for most people they don’t feel the full effects until the next day. I’ve known people who haven’t had any, though. It does seem that generally the booster is hitting people harder than the first two.
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I think you might have been right. I'm beginning to feel it now.

Wouldn't go as far as to say I'm feeling ill. More so a bit foggy with a slight headache and a sore shoulder.

Kind of like the hangover after a night out when somebody punched me in my arm.
 
Because we've had a lot of talk about tests recently a couple of observations.

With infection rates high, the odds of a LFT giving a false positive are lower than the odds of a PCR test giving a false negative. If the LFT says you're infected and the PCR says you aren't, you need to be suspicious - at least do another LFT test to make sure.

A PCR done one morning can be too early to pick up an infection that's visible on LFT the next day. A negative PCR done two days ago is basically useless today. PCRs can see a lower viral load, which means they can pick up an infection maybe a day earlier than a LFT and they may continue to give a positive result for days (or weeks) after the LFT goes back to seeing negatives again - in general though those late PCR positives are seeing dead viral material not the infectious kind. The early PCR positives are obviously useful though, and PCRs can pick up asymptomatic cases that LFTS miss - provided you get the timing right.

The FT did a graphic based on the data:

FHNjOiVWQAQer7C
 
Is there any reason to believe that further variants of the disease will continue to weaken? Or is it just as likely to mutate into a more virulent and/or dangerous strain?

Thanks.
 
Ferguson’s Hairdryer said:
You’ve probably had it without symptoms or had it earlier with minor symptoms and thought it was a cold / flu, you have anything early 2020 from Jan/Feb ?
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I have thought it’s possible that I’ve just been asymptomatic, but I have tested fairly regularly. I have nothing early to end 2020, the worst flu I’ve ever had is post a visit to Venice September 2019. A few months before the whole thing kicked off. Although quite a few people claimed the same thing so maybe it’s just a case of confirmation bias.
 
Brwned said:
In that case I agree @Pogue Mahone it seems likely a lot will be getting boosted + infected and my theory’s completely redundant:D
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Just to throw in a couple of numbers. Real world efficacy/effectiveness against Alpha, for people who had covid in the previous 6 months was around 80-85% against infection. That same calculation done now for Omicron would show a drop to around 20% - it's not just vaccine efficacy that wanes or took a hit against Omicron.

Looks like protection against hospitalisation post infection remains strong - but that's not an easy calculation to do. There's more or less no immune naive control group in the UK now. We've almost all either been vaxxed, or vaxxed + infected, or infected. Makes doing the analysis really messy. You can see things on population trend lines but there are lots of anomalies as you zoom in and the sub-group denominator errors start to take hold.
 
Got the booster the other day and felt like I’d had mad whiplash the day after. Neck was in agony. Feeling better now though.
 
Droid_Repairs said:
Is there any reason to believe that further variants of the disease will continue to weaken? Or is it just as likely to mutate into a more virulent and/or dangerous strain?

Thanks.
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There's no reason to assume that new variants will get weaker or stronger. As long as they spread they're done their job before their host becomes immobile and useless at spreading it around.

There's strong reason to believe that they will appear weaker to us, as we build up immunity through vaccination and infection. In time it'll probably look like another cold to most of us. In an immune naive population, it could still wreak havoc though, even if we think it's milder.
 
Bosws87 said:
Now its been proven the vaccination in its current form has little effect on transmission i don't think this is even a starting point.

Trying to force people or discriminate against people doesn't encourage them to change their mind it just makes them double down on the original bollocks they believe.

Ignoring the very small chance that something goes wrong when they have got the jab is that just seen as collateral when you are forcing people.
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Part in bold, not necessary. Singapore was probably the first to implement this and a big chunk of those vaccine reluctant people promptly signed up for their shots. The remaining ones are those you just can't change their mind no matter what.
 
This is a bit of a nonsense question but I'm curious anyway. A week ago when I went to get my booster I was wearing my ffp2 mask which supposedly gives you 95 percent effectiveness in filtration of air particles. I was told to put on a surgical mask which gives an 80 percent filtation effectiveness on top of the ffp2 mask I was already wearing. The surgical mask was tightly fitted against my nose/mouth. Does this mean:

a) No effect at all, I should have 95% protection from outside air particles
b) The effect of the ffp2 is to provide 95% protection against the 20% of air particles that get through the first layer: 1 - (0.2 x (1 - 0.95)) = 99% effective
c) There's some additional, unquantifiable level of protection from the surgical mask so it's somewhere between 95 and 99 percent.
 
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P-Ro said:
This is a bit on a nonsense question but I'm curious anyway. A week ago when I went to get my booster I was wearing my ffp2 mask which supposedly gives you 95 percent effectiveness in filtration of air particles. I was told to put on a surgical mask which gives an 80 percent filtation effectiveness on top of the ffp2 mask I was already wearing. The surgical mask was tightly fitted against my nose/mouth. Does this mean:

a) No effect at all, I should have 95% protection from outside air particles
b) The effect of the ffp2 is to provide 95% protection against the 20% of air particles that get through the first layer: 1 - (0.2 x (1 - 0.95)) = 99% effective
c) There's some additional, unquantifiable level of protection from the surgical mask so it's somewhere between 95 and 99 percent.
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or perhaps it's d) You have reduced the effectiveness of the mask to zero. Enjoy your covid over Christmas.
 
P-Ro said:
This is a bit of a nonsense question but I'm curious anyway. A week ago when I went to get my booster I was wearing my ffp2 mask which supposedly gives you 95 percent effectiveness in filtration of air particles. I was told to put on a surgical mask which gives an 80 percent filtation effectiveness on top of the ffp2 mask I was already wearing. The surgical mask was tightly fitted against my nose/mouth. Does this mean:

a) No effect at all, I should have 95% protection from outside air particles
b) The effect of the ffp2 is to provide 95% protection against the 20% of air particles that get through the first layer: 1 - (0.2 x (1 - 0.95)) = 99% effective
c) There's some additional, unquantifiable level of protection from the surgical mask so it's somewhere between 95 and 99 percent.
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Sounds a bit overkill if I'm honest, depends on so many other variables of the setting you're in.
 
McGrathsipan said:
I've a slight tickly throat now and I'm paranoid!
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Girl at work tested positive and I have the same symptom as you. Waiting on pcr but lateral flows negative so far.

Can I still pick up a normal run of the mill cold with 2 vaccines and a flu jab?
 
Tarrou said:
I'm into my third day of symptoms today (had a positive pcr test yesterday) and feeling quite rough now

I'm starting to get a bit short of breathe which is worrying, but had an old asthma inhaler lying around which did the trick

Are there any over the counter treatments which can help? I guess just all the regular cold and flu stuff?
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You ok buddy?
 
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arnie_ni said:
Girl at work tested positive and I have the same symptom as you. Waiting on pcr but lateral flows negative so far.

Can I still pick up a normal run of the mill cold with 2 vaccines and a flu jab?
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God knows at this stage.

I've a banging headache. Extremely bad since about 4pm yesterday. But maybe that's a caffeine withdrawal since I only had one cup yesterday instead of the usual 4 or 5
 
My parents are on their way, luckily both tested negative multiple times and my gf, gf's mum and me have all tested negative too. Nice not to have to worry after last Christmas.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Definitely possible but (unfortunately) covid more likely. Hopefully PCR negative. You could definitely get lucky.
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I done the pcr yesterday, negative lateral flow yesterday, will do another this evening and think I'll hold off going home until the morning and do another one before going up home instead of tonight, provided all are negative.
 
golden_blunder said:
And do you not understand that omnicron is just getting started and things will rise in proportion?
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golden_blunder said:
You’re forgetting this is unprecedented. The vaccines were developed before Omnicron raised its dirty head. Let’s see how it pans out. At this point they are rightly being cautious because if it’s super transmissible then the hospitals will be under more pressure during the winter months when they are already pushed from winter virals. And their own staff are isolating more too
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golden_blunder said:
Wonder does that mean you and the chap above caught delta. I thought I’d read somewhere that omnicron doesn’t cause loss of taste and smell
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golden_blunder said:
What’s the incubation period for omnicron?
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Geebs if you say omnicron instead of omicron again I am going to have to ban you.
 
arnie_ni said:
I done the pcr yesterday, negative lateral flow yesterday, will do another this evening and think I'll hold off going home until the morning and do another one before going up home instead of tonight, provided all are negative.
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Sounds like a good plan. A negative PCR will be very reassuring. You should still be careful about ventilation, keeping your distance etc. As you’ve just seen for yourself catching a virus is a massive pain in the arse right now, even if it isn’t covid!
 
It's amazing how easily your body can manifest symptoms in the few hours up to taking an antigen, which then magically disappear once you get the negative. It's constantly happening to me, around the time of my near daily antigens :lol:
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Sounds like a good plan. A negative PCR will be very reassuring. You should still be careful about ventilation, keeping your distance etc. As you’ve just seen for yourself catching a virus is a massive pain in the arse right now, even if it isn’t covid!
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Thanks for the feedback pogue. Great work.

Nice to be able to get a bit of advice in a maddening time
 
Droid_Repairs said:
Is there any reason to believe that further variants of the disease will continue to weaken? Or is it just as likely to mutate into a more virulent and/or dangerous strain?
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There is little or no selection pressure to make covid more or less virulent because all variants to date haven't killed fast enough or often enough to prevent transmission. So what has happened so far is that more infectious variants keep replacing previous variants. The mutations that enable increased infectiousness may also make the severity of disease somewhat more or less. So if a new variant is more infectious it will replace the previous predominant variant unless it is so harmful that increased fatality inhibits the spread more than the increased infectioness increases the spread.

Given how infectious Omicron is and hopefully that it Is a bit milder, new variants will occur less often as a) worldwide vaccination will increase reducing the chances of a new variant arising and b) any new variant will need to out-compete Omicron to become the predominant new variant.

New variants may well arise but the chances of a new dominant variant reduceces every time a new one takes over.
 
esmufc07 said:
Right, where’s my ban button.
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Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron
 
golden_blunder said:
Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron
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Is this the new pedal stool?
 
golden_blunder said:
Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron Omnicron
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Is this like when someone reported 32 posts and got banned for frivolous reporting?
 
The wife and I just got negative LFTs. Look forward to tickling my brain again tomorrow morning. Meanwhile the in-laws are locked up in the box room
 
LARulz said:
Been having a lot of discussion with friends and family naturally over COVID and pretty much all of us are now boosted. Some have had COVID too and some (like me as far as I know) haven't

But a lot of them, especially people my age, are now saying that's it for them in terms of vaccines for at least a year. If after 3 vaccines and COVID (for some) is still not enough then nothing is. I was indifferent initially and was just doing what seemed to get this to an end quickly but it has made me wonder what is the end point and how much more people are willing to do
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Big problem really. I mean the studies are suggesting boosters are waning 10 weeks in which isn't long at all if I've interpreted the data correctly. Israel on verge of administrating a fourth dose so UK will follow soon enough.

Again it's a question of how long before the virus recedes to just needing a vaccine once a year in the winter to protect rather than having to get a top up every 3-4 months.

As I've said many times it's an issue when over 50m of any population is doing what they're told and still it's nowhere near enough to push the virus into manageable day to day life levels. We'll see what 2022 brings I guess.
 
Does anyone know why someone who got their pcr 3 hours after me at the same test centre would have her results and I wouldn't
 
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