SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Dante said:
Omicron is almost a different disease that we're dealing with.

The more widespread Covid is, the more it mutates. And the more it mutates, the more difficult it is to pin down and eradicate with targetted treatment.

The 'end' is to try and bring down the numbers so that mutations become less frequent. Once that happens, we can deal with a single enemy rather than multiple ones that can keep evading our traps.

The light at the end of the tunnel is that Omicron is so different from the rest that if we can deal with that, we can hopefully deal with anything.
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Thanks. I know it's early and I imagine everything now is a better safe than sorry approach but last I heard (may be out of date) was that this variant is, for the most part, less harmful compared to others. But is clearly quicker to spread. Is that ultimately not what people kept saying is ideal? Faster to spread and become dominant but less harmful?

I understand the less harmful nature comes from people being vaccinated and having antibodies, so it's not the same for everyone but still

Sorry if these are dumb questions covered before but just wanted to understand what I'm missing to see a bigger picture
 
Dante said:
If you look at how much more mutated Omicron is compared to previous variants...

FFJsarsUUAUpNLv

Link

And you check the genetic distance of Omicron compared to the rest...
1920px-Omicron_SARS-CoV-2_radial_distance_tree_2021-Dec-01.svg.png


It's tempting to think of this current wave as almost a different pandemic of a different disease. That's why the vaccine advice has changed so suddenly. We're not dealing with the same thing that hit us in March 2020.

I've read some reports suggesting that Omicron is an unholy union between the Delta variant + the Common Cold. That makes sense (to me as a layman) as we now seem to be facing a wave that shares some of the worst traits of both.
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The bold section interests me, as I have read varying reports that state that the Omicron variant potentially came from a human who had both the common cold and SARS cov2, or potentially from an animal host.
If an animal host, there's a lot to say about it being a new virus completely separate from what's gone before, which is a warning sign for the future!

Early signs from what I've read are though that due to the ease of transmissibility this variant does seem to be more mild in terms of symptoms and illness, although I understand that data is still being collected, this looks to be a good sign.
 
Shakesey said:
Turns out we all built up some form of immunity according to Pogue. We call it H1N1 now. Just a normal seasonal flu.
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I wonder whether we are stopping this from happening this time by having people wear masks, wash their hands more, limit contact etc?
 
LARulz said:
So what's the out now? Vaccines last year were the answer. Now we have the vaccines nothing has changed

How does this actually end? If it is a case of just living with it/continuing as normal, then when does that actually start? Can't keep doing this every few months
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I thought this was just the new normal?
 
Dante said:
If you look at how much more mutated Omicron is compared to previous variants...

FFJsarsUUAUpNLv

Link

And you check the genetic distance of Omicron compared to the rest...
1920px-Omicron_SARS-CoV-2_radial_distance_tree_2021-Dec-01.svg.png


It's tempting to think of this current wave as almost a different pandemic of a different disease. That's why the vaccine advice has changed so suddenly. We're not dealing with the same thing that hit us in March 2020.

I've read some reports suggesting that Omicron is an unholy union between the Delta variant + the Common Cold. That makes sense (to me as a layman) as we now seem to be facing a wave that shares some of the worst traits of both.
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One of the very first tweets I read about this was a virologist going “fecking hell, this is SARS-CoV-3”
 
I haven’t read into it to fact check but I’ve heard a lot of people say a super transmissible version was what brought a close to the last big flu pandemic. So if that’s true we might be on the course to being on the other side in the next few months.

Need someone to actually fact check that though! Makes sense logically though because the immunity Population wise is going to be built up in a couple of weeks instead of the long drawn out months process of the other waves.
 
LARulz said:
Thanks. I know it's early and I imagine everything now is a better safe than sorry approach but last I heard (may be out of date) was that this variant is, for the most part, less harmful compared to others. But is clearly quicker to spread. Is that ultimately not what people kept saying is ideal? Faster to spread and become dominant but less harmful?

I understand the less harmful nature comes from people being vaccinated and having antibodies, so it's not the same for everyone but still

Sorry if these are dumb questions covered before but just wanted to understand what I'm missing to see a bigger picture
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At this stage for a country like the UK (high vaccination rates, high levels of past infection) it's all about small percentages.

If it's half as likely to hospitalise you then the cases will still overwhelm the hospitals (whether or not those patients go on to fill the morgues). If it's a quarter we might just wobble through it, but it will be brutal.

If it's significantly better than that we may as well have a party (or better still, a series of them, to stagger the hospitalisations and the absences from work) and get it over with quickly. If we can do it fast enough and warn the most vulnerable (including those who can't take the vaccine) to stay home - maybe even supply them with therapeutics in advance - then it might be as good as it gets.

Trouble is we may not have those numbers to do those calculations until we're so deep into it that we can't jump back if they say we'll have no workforce to deliver food next week and we have to use church halls as plague hospitals. I don't think that will happen, I think we'll see people vote with their feet. Parties will be scaled down, events will get cancelled. Oddly enough, the UK people seem to have become quite adept at curve flattening.

The calculation is going to be different in every country though. There is a possibility that some countries will ride this out in its Omicron form (if the most hopeful mildness data holds) and others will find it unbearable. Personally I can't imagine why people would want to wait for another round of tailor made vaccines (that might already be out of date the day they arrive) but some countries and some people won't see it that way. And mild in the vaxxed/past infected population might be nothing like mild in a previously unexposed group.
 
I do feel like we are at the point where we just need to get as many people vaccinated and boostered as possible and just let the thing spread now (while protecting and shielding the vunerable).

I don't see how we can keep this up year after year otherwise because it's not going to just go away.
 
Ireland gonna lockdown just in time for Christmas. This feels very familiar.
 
Wouldn't it make sense to close schools in Ireland from today?
 
Woodzy said:
I do feel like we are at the point where we just need to get as many people vaccinated and boostered as possible and just let the thing spread now (while protecting and shielding the vunerable).

I don't see how we can keep this up year after year otherwise because it's not going to just go away.
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We can't keep what up exactly?

Vaccines and masks in limited circumstances and periods is hardly some huge societal pressure we can't sustain for a few years.
 
Smores said:
We can't keep what up exactly?

Vaccines and masks in limited circumstances and periods is hardly some huge societal pressure we can't sustain for a few years.
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We can do vaccines and masks for as long as it takes and I should hope we do.

But the lockdowns, panic and general anxiety that this virus is causing globally is not healthy. It was necessary before the vaccines, but is it necessary now (genuine question as I don't know)?
 
Another day, another silly question from owlo.

Are those who are mrna vaccinated and had infection from Sars-Cov-1 succeptible to omicron?
 
Heardy said:
Got my booster later this morning. My pregnant wife is booked in too.

I hope she’s ok after getting it - the tin foil hat posts re pregnant women have got under my skin and I feel a bit sick about it all.
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Welcome to parenthood! Nothing but worries about your kid/s for the rest of your life. I'm sure you'll all be fine.
 
owlo said:
Another day, another silly question from owlo.

Are those who are mrna vaccinated and had infection from Sars-Cov-1 succeptible to omicron?
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Yes. Although likely less susceptible than anyone else. The lab data on omicron has “hybrid immunity” (infection + vaccine) giving the best protection. Although still a long way below 100%.
 
My head is spinning again with all this vaccine spike protein evasion talk.

Do the vaccines work or not against this Omicron disease?
 
McGrathsipan said:
My head is spinning again with all this vaccine spike protein evasion talk.

Do the vaccines work or not against this Omicron disease?
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It seems like it works pretty (maybe very?) well against severe disease, doesn’t look like it works very well in stopping transmission though.
 
A bit of a niche request, but any sort of data correlating to recovery times on those with omicron, vaxxed or otherwise? Just anecdotally speaking, I tested positive for the virus on Tuesday with the full board of symptoms (I'm doubled vaxxed with the Pfizer vaccine), but I've almost made a full recovery as of today. Some of my friends and family members also seem to be on the mend rather quickly too.
 
Kaos said:
A bit of a niche request, but any sort of data correlating to recovery times on those with omicron, vaxxed or otherwise? Just anecdotally speaking, I tested positive for the virus on Tuesday with the full board of symptoms (I'm doubled vaxxed with the Pfizer vaccine), but I've almost made a full recovery as of today. Some of my friends and family members also seem to be on the mend rather quickly too.
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Data from South Africa is that duration of illness is shorter than in previous waves.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Data from South Africa is that duration of illness is shorter than previous waves.
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That's certainly encouraging. I assume that's for those who've built up immunity through a vaccination course and/or previous infection? Or is it agnostic of that?
 
Kaos said:
That's certainly encouraging. I assume that's for those who've built up immunity through a vaccination course and/or previous infection? Or is it agnostic of that?
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the doctor that first found it in South Africa was claiming no matter on vaccination or not the majority of cases were ok in a couple of days 5 max
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Yes. Although likely less susceptible than anyone else. The lab data on omicron has “hybrid immunity” (infection + vaccine) giving the best protection. Although still a long way below 100%.
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Interesting. So prior infection from SARS-COV2 offers better protection in tandem with the vaccines than prior infection from SARS-Cov1 ?
 
Pogue Mahone said:


This is great to see. A small % of a very big number is still a big number but still…
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Yep. I think a lot of countries including the UK would see that as great news, of it applies to them. The "yes, but" issues come round the specifics of course. In the UK the hospitalisation rate fell from around 8% of positive tests (early alpha) to about 2% with Delta. That seemed to be entirely a vaccination/immunity thing so we may already have had some/all of our big leap. In which case it's not good news for the UK at all.

Good news for countries like India of course, which had to cope with Delta with next to no vaccines and limited past immunity.

Incidentally, England will hit its (current rules) PCR test capacity end of this week/early next. Hopefully they'll change the rules to prioritise the right tests, rather than just let the system become completely logjammed and useless.
 
jojojo said:
Yep. I think a lot of countries including the UK would see that as great news, of it applies to them. The "yes, but" issues come round the specifics of course. In the UK the hospitalisation rate fell from around 8% of positive tests (early alpha) to about 2% with Delta. That seemed to be entirely a vaccination/immunity thing so we may already have had some/all of our big leap. In which case it's not good news for the UK at all.

Good news for countries like India of course, which had to cope with Delta with next to no vaccines and limited past immunity.

Incidentally, England will hit its (current rules) PCR test capacity end of this week/early next. Hopefully they'll change the rules to prioritise the right tests, rather than just let the system become completely logjammed and useless.
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How would they further narrow the prioritisation though? As far as I recall, the guidelines state that to be eligible for a PCR you should either display symptoms, have been in contact with someone who's tested positive, or you need one done for travel reasons. All of them seem pretty sensible criteria.
 
jojojo said:
Yep. I think a lot of countries including the UK would see that as great news, of it applies to them. The "yes, but" issues come round the specifics of course. In the UK the hospitalisation rate fell from around 8% of positive tests (early alpha) to about 2% with Delta. That seemed to be entirely a vaccination/immunity thing so we may already have had some/all of our big leap. In which case it's not good news for the UK at all.

Good news for countries like India of course, which had to cope with Delta with next to no vaccines and limited past immunity.

Incidentally, England will hit its (current rules) PCR test capacity end of this week/early next. Hopefully they'll change the rules to prioritise the right tests, rather than just let the system become completely logjammed and useless.
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True but SA have already gone through that with their second and third waves (also on graph)
 
This is giving me the same vibe as how I approached my exams at school wing it hope for the best and it turned out great!

Wouldn’t recommend it but that’s how the data reads.
 
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