SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Wibble]

Interesting findings that may suggest why Omicron is more infectious but (hopefully) less harmful.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-times-faster-than-delta-in-bronchial-tissue?

 

[Wibble]

The theory with heard immunity is your body builds up some immunity but like the flu, it changes every year, the problem right now with covid, is that there are two major variations (currently) Delta and Omicron and so the body has to fight off two mutations which in theory, can then cause more unknown issues in future as those two evolve and change again, so herd immunity isn't necessary as ideal as it was before.

The biggest worry, is what will come next or even after that in a few years time, which could be more dangerous, as some have already speculated.

Cold, Flu, Covid mutations, we may never find a total cure.

Mutating viruses can affect herd immunity but herd immunity is simply a situation where so many people in a population have immunity that every person infected infects less than one person on average (e.g. 5 infected people only infect 4 others between them) so the virus dies out.

Our real problem with getting to herd immunity is that a) we need a very high percentage of people to be immune (estimated 80-88% for Delta and feck knows for Omicron) and b) the vaccines aren't sterilising so 80-88% of people fully vaxxed (or immune from infection which only gives about 75% of people any protection we think) doesn't equal 88% actually immune. Since few countries will get 90% of adults vaccinated and fewer in younger age groups herd immunity is very unlikely and probably impossible with Omicron unless we manage to develop a sterilising vaccine and they are very rare (and in fact may not exist and just prevent almost all infections and kill all actual infections so fast or make them so mild we don't even test for infection).

That said these vaccines are performing incredibly well in reducing transmission and severity of disease. Far better than we had any right to expect and the mRNA ones can be quickly tweaked for new variants if we need to.

So Covid is almost certain to become endemic once the world is hugely vaccinated and that would mean variants would be far rarer. Once the virus stabilises (which may take a few years I'd guess) we won't need boosters every 6 months (which are to keep antibodies active to reduce infections and take pressure off medical facilities) but rather at longer time periods when either a) a new variant arises (usually far less often with coronaviruses than with influenza) or b) memory cells wane (often years or sometimes virtually never). The current boosters are for a different purpose than normal boosters due to us being in a pandemic.

Sorry for rambling on.

 

[Stack]

The big advantage the UK has, in theory, is a lot of prior exposure to the virus. Which fills in a lot of the gaps left by the unvaccinated. Although South Africa had even higher past exposure and it still took off like crazy. Although that was still a big factor in their (probable) shift to milder illness.

NZ (and Australia) are unusual in that their unvaccinated population is completely naive when it comes to covid exposure. Which might cause a much higher % of serious illness than you’d see elsewhere.

All ifs, buts and maybes though. Something that doesn’t get mentioned much is that it’s summer in South Africa now. And there does seem to be more and more of a seasonal element to the virus. NZ could be saved by a decent summer or in deep shit if omicron doesn’t kick off down under for another few months (highly unlikely).

Absolutely.
Ultimately I think we might just get lucky because of timing and the isolation thing slowing stuff down here. We get to watch again and prepare, fingers crossed we get away with it again.
I know Australians like to call themselves the lucky country but with this covid thing I really think its NZ thats had all the good luck.

 

[Stack]

And just as I type the previous the first Omi case appears here in one of our border isolation hotels.

 

[Wibble]

NZ (and Australia) are unusual in that their unvaccinated population is completely naive when it comes to covid exposure. Which might cause a much higher % of serious illness than you’d see elsewhere.

All ifs, buts and maybes though. Something that doesn’t get mentioned much is that it’s summer in South Africa now. And there does seem to be more and more of a seasonal element to the virus. NZ could be saved by a decent summer or in deep shit if omicron doesn’t kick off down under for another few months (highly unlikely).

NSW will be 95% vaccinated (adults) very soon with a big push on boosters and hopefully we can replicated that in all states which will reduce the spread and severity of illness. Figures from Victoria are encouraging with 91% of ICU/ventilated admissions being unvaccinated (88% not even had 1 shot) and infections are surging in NSW with the reduction in regulations - 1800 today - but hospital numbers are stable so far. Not that I think that will remain the case with 20,000 per day forecast soon but hopefully we will cope.

Omicron is here already so no chance it won't become dominant very soon.

 

[Shakesy]

According to a fascinating Nature article, the future of COVID could follow one of these four evolutionary paths:

• Infection or vaccination provides lifetime protection, and the virus circulates largely on the basis of new births (like measles)
• Most people get infected in their first two years of life, essentially becoming a virus of kids (RSV)
• Seasonal epidemic, propelled largely by spread in adults, who can still develop severe symptoms (Influenza A)
• Transmission is driven largely by infections in children, who have less immunity than adults (Influenza B)

 

[Anustart89]

Must have slept through that lecture. I’ve been telling friends/family that random pleuritic pain is caused by cramp in the intercostal muscles. Just as well none of them listen to me any more.

To be honest, I’ve never heard that in any lecture either. I’ve had it myself and then I read about it in one of those “what weird body thing do you have that you don’t want to see a doctor for” threads on Reddit that pop up now and then. Since learning the name for it (I’ve always assumed that it was a pinched nerve) I’ve found several cases in the ED.

 

[11101]

To be honest, I’ve never heard that in any lecture either. I’ve had it myself and then I read about it in one of those “what weird body thing do you have that you don’t want to see a doctor for” threads on Reddit that pop up now and then. Since learning the name for it (I’ve always assumed that it was a pinched nerve) I’ve found several cases in the ED.

I used to get it too, apparently its not strictly a medical condition a doctor would be taught since nobody knows what it is and its virtually impossible to study as its so random and fleeting.

 

[Sparky Rhiwabon]

Mutating viruses can affect herd immunity but herd immunity is simply a situation where so many people in a population have immunity that every person infected infects less than one person on average (e.g. 5 infected people only infect 4 others between them) so the virus dies out.

Our real problem with getting to herd immunity is that a) we need a very high percentage of people to be immune (estimated 80-88% for Delta and feck knows for Omicron) and b) the vaccines aren't sterilising so 80-88% of people fully vaxxed (or immune from infection which only gives about 75% of people any protection we think) doesn't equal 88% actually immune. Since few countries will get 90% of adults vaccinated and fewer in younger age groups herd immunity is very unlikely and probably impossible with Omicron unless we manage to develop a sterilising vaccine and they are very rare (and in fact may not exist and just prevent almost all infections and kill all actual infections so fast or make them so mild we don't even test for infection).

That said these vaccines are performing incredibly well in reducing transmission and severity of disease. Far better than we had any right to expect and the mRNA ones can be quickly tweaked for new variants if we need to.

So Covid is almost certain to become endemic once the world is hugely vaccinated and that would mean variants would be far rarer. Once the virus stabilises (which may take a few years I'd guess) we won't need boosters every 6 months (which are to keep antibodies active to reduce infections and take pressure off medical facilities) but rather at longer time periods when either a) a new variant arises (usually far less often with coronaviruses than with influenza) or b) memory cells wane (often years or sometimes virtually never). The current boosters are for a different purpose than normal boosters due to us being in a pandemic.

Sorry for rambling on.

Apologies for my ignorance but what is the difference between pandemic and endemic?

 

[Shakesy]

Apologies for my ignorance but what is the difference between pandemic and endemic?

Pandemic = global
Endemic = localized

 

[JuveGER]

On the reddit sub HermanCainAward, Candace is known as "Candeath". She regularly appears in the FaceBook posts of the anti-vaxxers just before they get Covid, demand horse dewormer and then succumb.

I recommend that sub to @CanadianUtd, it's very educational. It shows how mass delusion is killing people (clue - it's not the vaccinated who are dying).

I hate you. I spent a totally unreasonable amount of time going through this sub yesterday, and the first thing I did this morning was checking the updates

But yeah, the stories are remarkably similar with always the same memes and the same quotes of the same people. "Candeath" and her ilk are doing their best to kill of MAGAs, ironically.

 

[Jippy]

 

[jojojo]

Apologies for my ignorance but what is the difference between pandemic and endemic?

Unfortunately it depends who's saying it.

Roughly though:
Epidemic - lots of cases, spreading through a country or an area or population group.
Pandemic - same thing but happening in places all over the world, if not simultaneously, then close to.
Endemic - infection rates rise and fall, but it's always around somewhere, you are "living with it," you aren't expecting it to disappear.

Endemic doesn't mean it's rare (colds are endemic) or that it's everywhere (in fact it can be very localised) or that it's mild (it can be deadly like ebola, endemic in certain areas, usually at a low level but can surge into epidemic territory). The lines are blurry and the people using them don't always mean the same thing.

Right now, if you hear people using the term endemic about the future of covid in the UK - they mean we're going to have to live with it. That doesn't mean ignore it. We can prepare the hospital system to handle it. We can develop vaccines and medicines to protect us from its worst effects. We expect our immune systems will gradually get used to fighting it, so fewer people are killed or injured by it.

We're just looking for the least worst way to get there. Omicron may have decided the next bit of the route for us.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

@Shakesey
@Traub

I remember hearing a South African primary care doc talking about the clinical presentation of omicron and that loss of taste/smell wasn’t really a feature. I’m sure you know loads of people who’ve picked it up recently. Is this holding true for them?

Weirdly, losing my taste/smell is currently my biggest personal fear when it comes to covid.

 

[SilentWitness]

As we have covid and we’re planning to give people Christmas gifts, what’s the best course of action for them? Sanitise them / quarantine? Anyone with experience know how to make them as safe as possible aka how long to quarantine for etc.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

As we have covid and we’re planning to give people Christmas gifts, what’s the best course of action for them? Sanitise them / quarantine? Anyone with experience know how to make them as safe as possible aka how long to quarantine for etc.

I’m no expert but reckon the chances of catching covid from a xmas present are vanishingly small. Just be careful not to cough/sneeze on them, wash your hands before wrapping them up and you’ll be grand.

 

[groovyalbert]

As we have covid and we’re planning to give people Christmas gifts, what’s the best course of action for them? Sanitise them / quarantine? Anyone with experience know how to make them as safe as possible aka how long to quarantine for etc.

Don't lick the envelopes of any cards you write!

 

[Drifter]

France toughens travel rules from UK as Omicron surges

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-59679703

 

[Shakesy]

@Shakesey
@Traub

I remember hearing a South African primary care doc talking about the clinical presentation of omicron and that loss of taste/smell wasn’t really a feature. I’m sure you know loads of people who’ve picked it up recently. Is this holding true for them?

Weirdly, losing my taste/smell is currently my biggest personal fear when it comes to covid.

It's odd, but despite knowing many who have tested positive this year, only a handful have lost both senses of taste and smell. As for the current wave, only one old guy I know lost it (but I only know about 6 who've tested positive this time around).

The taste/smell thing is mind-boggling. Could you perhaps explain medically how this can happen? A friend of mine who lives in Ukraine hasn't been able to taste his favorite thing (garlic) for 6 months! He also love/loved steak, but it just doesn't taste the same for him anymore. In fact, he says it sickens him now.

 

[choccy77]

Say what you will about Brexit, but not being tied to Brussels, has really given the UK an advantage / headstart on vaccinations and it's crazy to think this time last year, some large countries were refusing to use some vaccines.

 

[Shakesy]

@Pogue Mahone

I'll let you know how I experience Omicron in about a week. My mother-in-law is turning 60 and there is a huge party. Indoors. And I can't get out of it without risking horrible marital complications.

It would be cool if I lost my sense of taste for broccoli. Then I'd finally be able to eat it.

 

[Tarrou]

Say what you will about Brexit, but not being tied to Brussels, has really given the UK an advantage / headstart on vaccinations and it's crazy to think this time last year, some large countries were refusing to use some vaccines.

I thought this was dubunked?

 

[SilentWitness]

I’m no expert but reckon the chances of catching covid from a xmas present are vanishingly small. Just be careful not to cough/sneeze on them, wash your hands before wrapping them up and you’ll be grand.

Cheers, that's what we assumed. We have put them in a bag away from us for about a week just in case.

Don't lick the envelopes of any cards you write!

 

[11101]

I thought this was dubunked?

It was, repeatedly.

 

[P-Ro]

Use ffp2/3

Yeah, I went today and used a new high-grade mask for the occasion. It's sensible to do it.

Thank you for reminding me. I found a couple of kn95s at my local independent pharmacy (superdrug and boots had run out). It's weird how I tend to overthink things like going to a vaccination centre way too much and yet upgrading my mask didn't even cross my mind. I'm such an idiot.

 

[africanspur]

Say what you will about Brexit, but not being tied to Brussels, has really given the UK an advantage / headstart on vaccinations and it's crazy to think this time last year, some large countries were refusing to use some vaccines.

What are you talking about?

 

[P-Ro]

As we have covid and we’re planning to give people Christmas gifts, what’s the best course of action for them? Sanitise them / quarantine? Anyone with experience know how to make them as safe as possible aka how long to quarantine for etc.

The earlier variants were unlikely to survive on surfaces after 72 hours. No idea about this new one though.

 

[jojojo]

Useful Twitter thread on the LFTs in use in the UK. In particular, on timing - with the onset speed of Omicron and the possibility that it has a short incubation period - don't rely on a morning test for a nighttime party.

Incidentally this confirms the feeling I already had about test timing. Asking for test results from a test in the past two days as a condition for entry to an event or whatever is pretty irrelevant.



Just to emphasise the timing thing:

 

[0le]

Useful Twitter thread on the LFTs in use in the UK. In particular, on timing - with the onset speed of Omicron and the possibility that it has a short incubation period - don't rely on a morning test for a nighttime party.

Incidentally this confirms the feeling I already had about test timing. Asking for test results from a test in the past two days as a condition for entry to an event or whatever is pretty irrelevant.

Why do so many people use Twitter to have long conversations? It baffles me. It is surely easier to just make a single FB post or YouTube channel to air your view on the topic?

 

[Ferguson’s Hairdryer]

Don’t know if it means anything.
Germany had 50000 daily infections yesterday, and deaths are around 450, can imaging hospitalisations are in the 1000s.

 

[P-Ro]

Why do so many people use Twitter to have long conversations? It baffles me. It is surely easier to just make a single FB post or YouTube channel to air your view on the topic?

Because twitter is a far better platform at getting your views across to as many people as possible. If he wrote this on Facebook then I doubt we would be reading it in this thread.

 

[choccy77]

I thought this was dubunked?

No it wasn't.

European Union delayed ordering vaccines and then refused to approve the Oxford one for a month or two after we had been using it.

It's why europe is behind in vaccination role outs compared to the UK drive

 

[Penna]

I hate you. I spent a totally unreasonable amount of time going through this sub yesterday, and the first thing I did this morning was checking the updates

But yeah, the stories are remarkably similar with always the same memes and the same quotes of the same people. "Candeath" and her ilk are doing their best to kill of MAGAs, ironically.

It wil become a favourite of yours very quickly! Actually, it's a great little community on there. They did a "donate a vaccine" thing a while back and raised $55,000 to buy vaccines for developing countries. They've also raise money for one of the sub members who needed oxygen equipment and couldn't afford it.

 

[Pexbo]

Why do so many people use Twitter to have long conversations? It baffles me. It is surely easier to just make a single FB post or YouTube channel to air your view on the topic?

Facebook is a toxic waste ground. Absolutely nothing is easier about Facebook. I know Twitter isn’t much better but Facebook is a hell hole that should be avoided at all costs - totally different audiences.

 

[Revan]

Say what you will about Brexit, but not being tied to Brussels, has really given the UK an advantage / headstart on vaccinations and it's crazy to think this time last year, some large countries were refusing to use some vaccines.

It has a higher death rate compared to other European large countries (like Italy, Germany, France, Spain) and a lower vaccination rate, in addition to most of vaccines used being worse than those in the EU.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Useful Twitter thread on the LFTs in use in the UK. In particular, on timing - with the onset speed of Omicron and the possibility that it has a short incubation period - don't rely on a morning test for a nighttime party.

Incidentally this confirms the feeling I already had about test timing. Asking for test results from a test in the past two days as a condition for entry to an event or whatever is pretty irrelevant.



Just to emphasise the timing thing:

Hmmm. That seems a little… neurotic?

There was always going to be a moment in time when a test transitions from positive to negative. I always assumed that this moment occurred with a relatively low viral load and you would need to be testing positive for a day or two before you become a meaningful risk of infecting anyone else. And that’s assuming someone who is completely asymptomatic is an infection risk anyway (debatable)

Taking that twitter thread to its logical conclusion we all should all be insisting on hourly LFTs for everyone present at the Christmas dinner table!

 

[choccy77]

It has a higher death rate compared to other European large countries (like Italy, Germany, France, Spain) and a lower vaccination rate, in addition to most of vaccines used being worse than those in the EU.

Agreed and that is where we failed compared to Europe, by not locking down fast enough, plus I would say aside from Italy, we have perhaps the country with the most oldest and underlying ill patients, hence the high death rate. Which is different than the vaccine drive which we still lead compared to most of European countries, if reports are accurate.

 

[P-Ro]

It has a higher death rate compared to other European large countries (like Italy, Germany, France, Spain) and a lower vaccination rate, in addition to most of vaccines used being worse than those in the EU.

Really? I thought we had a comparable adult vaccination rate but our statistics also cover 12-18 year olds whilst the other European countries only report 18+.

 

[Penna]

It has a higher death rate compared to other European large countries (like Italy, Germany, France, Spain) and a lower vaccination rate, in addition to most of vaccines used being worse than those in the EU.

Yes, the advantage hasn't actually translated into the figures, as far as I can see. I don't know about other European countries, but AZ isn't used at all now in Italy and hasn't been for some time. I remember it being there in May when I had my first vaccination, by the time I went back in June there was no-one waiting for AZ.

Went for my booster yesterday and they were only offering Pfizer and Moderna, and some people there were coming for their first jabs.

 

[africanspur]

No it wasn't.

European Union delayed ordering vaccines and then refused to approve the Oxford one for a month or two after we had been using it.

It's why europe is behind in vaccination role outs compared to the UK drive

'Europe' (of which we are a part) or more accurately the EU is not behind in their vaccination role out. Multiple countries in the EU have now overtaken the EU in vaccination coverage, both in terms of just adults and also including teenagers/kids etc.

There may be an argument that if we were still part of the EU, we would not have wanted to deal with the political fallout of deciding to order vaccines alone BUT there is nothing in EU law to say that individual countries could not do so.

So even if we had still been in the EU and even if we had decided to be part of the collective purchasing system (which we could have opted out of), we could then have still made the decision to purchase vaccines independently of those orders and still made the decision to authorise those vaccines before the EMA did.

Other than Russia, we have the most cases and deaths of any European country, though the differences are no longer as high as they were previously.

We are also nowhere near the 2nd oldest population in Europe.