SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
By allowing the right amount of people to get it at the right time. Closures will come, but when more people are infected.
The Guardian ran it today but seen it elsewhere.
https://www.theguardian.com/science...ead-by-people-yet-to-show-symptoms-scientists
Seems like a small study investigating the case data so as with most research on this it's far from conclusive.
Dont know why people bash the UK in here. Most of Western Europe is doing the same, meaning feck all
right click incognito
Can schools take things into their own hands and provide remote learning? Or would they not be allowed?
And then it'll be too late and the NHS already straining without Corona largely due to Tory playtime will get overwhelmed.
Sir Patrick Vallance and Chris Witty are absolutely essential watching for eloquently explaining why there are incredibly powerful reasons for why this is a marathon and not a sprint, and captures why calls for just shutting up shop for a month are utterly asinine. It’s going to get far, far worse and that’s when you use the biggest measures. Hiding for a month does not make this go away. If you’re going to hide away, then you do it at the most opportune time.
What are these experts saying?
I've seen many reports and experts criticising the lack of action from the UK.
I've also seen a country take the exact same fecking measures lose control in two weeks.
Despite my best efforts my partner is adamant on going to a concert next week with thousands in an arena. She has asthma and another autoimmune disease and usually catches every cold going. Hoping it's cancelled, it's insanity that such events are still going ahead at this stage.
Who is looking after these kids?
Our science is right, everyone else's is wrong.
Dump her, only sensible solution in this case.
What I've been trying to say, but said much better.
Beth Rigby asking the wrong question, sensationalist.
The British Trumpers in here doing their job of repeating whatever the Tories say i see.
Check this link if you have the time https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
This is one of the dumbest posts I've read in this thread. The reason for social quarantine for two weeks or a month is not to make it go away but to slow the progression of person to person transmission so that the hospitals are not overwhelmed at once by receiving patients over their capacity which is what will happen if the number of infections rises exponentially as it is now.
No one thinks they'll be safe by isolating for a month but if I were to inevitably get infected, I'd much rather it be 3 months from now than today just because there will be advances in testing and understanding of the illness. Someone might even succeed at repurposing some old flu or anti-inflammatory medication to reduce symptoms by then.
Seems fairly clear the plan is to drag it out until the Easter Holidays.
Would expect them to keep the testing to a minimum so the figures are way down too.
Would expect them to keep the testing to a minimum so the figures are way down too.
Does seem Germany in particular is on the same page as UK. Just localized school closures like UK, football matches going ahead, no border closures (Germany actually stating it won't help) Merkel saying most of you will get it.
Germany is everyone's good guy go to country doing the same.
It is not the Tories, it ist the scientists too, do you see the two guys flanking Boris? They tell exactly the same thing.
Real question is if we in reality have up 10k cases how many does italy really have!
This sticks out:
France claims 1,400 cases today and 30 deaths. Using the two methods above, you can have a range of cases: between 24,000 and 140,000
So both Chris Witty and Sir Patrick Vallance are very, very confident that the mortality rate is under 1% overall, but heavily dependent on age and general health. Hence why they are going all in on flattening the curve.
Now talking about why they have not cancelled flights and sporting events. Flights is minimal benefit unless you could close 95% of transport options from China to UK, and that would require a global effort. Sporting events do carry risk, Witty admits, but the R rate is only about 2-3. The average person infected at a stadium is very unlikely to infect large amounts of people around them, only a couple. Most The biggest benefit from cancelling events would be from actually just freeing up emergency staff and public services, but that is not necessary yet.
Now talking about why they have not cancelled flights and sporting events. Flights is minimal benefit unless you could close 95% of transport options from China to UK, and that would require a global effort. Sporting events do carry risk, Witty admits, but the R rate is only about 2-3. The average person infected at a stadium is very unlikely to infect large amounts of people around them, only a couple. Most The biggest benefit from cancelling events would be from actually just freeing up emergency staff and public services, but that is not necessary yet.
My government shutting down our islands. Phew.
But it doesn't seem to take into account the behavioural/economic factors of shutting things down for 3+ months. It's probably impossible to do for more than 4-6 weeks, so you should do it at the peak.
I just don't understand how the current measures will 'flatten the curve' which seems to be the main focus. If anything, it creates a bigger peak.
Italy confirmed cases upto 15,113 from 12,462 yesterday. Now over 1,000 deaths.
The funny thing is the last sentence of his post is true but the opportune time is NOW!
Also has ample data about managing the strain it has on the healthcare system by acting NOW.
When you look at schools, we'd be talking about months of closures to actually do more than a window dressing operation - and as one of the biggest issues is keeping them away from granny, I have no problem believing that it's not enough of an advantage to start the closures now. Because a lot of the younger kids in particular will end up with granny, and a lot of the older ones will (within a couple of weeks) end up meeting anywhere they can.
We're going in this direction. Best thing for the UK to do is to start our own social distancing. Don't NEED to go out, don't go out. Keep it at the minimum.
It's not now because then you will have to do it again. Every time you impose a quarantine it will become less effective as more people ignore it.
Did he just say 95% either side of peak will get infected?! Feck me.
Don't phone 111 until your too ill to pick up the phone.
What a strategy.
Also, note, 'we don't need to know you are ill'
That is insane. If you don't track infections from people who recover, how do you ever plan on actually fighting it?
What a strategy.
Also, note, 'we don't need to know you are ill'
That is insane. If you don't track infections from people who recover, how do you ever plan on actually fighting it?
We are not talking about total lockdown right now but measure that could limit the spread. Closing educational institutions, cancelling sporting and cultural events etc. Will this ensure no else gets the virus? No. But will it help reduce the chances of more people getting it? Hell yeah.
By acting now, you ensure the peak does not spike and is more manageable.