but the increase w.r.t prev day is less ?
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
She's just keeping the economy going, good on her.
Denmark's closing down, and we're three years away from an election.
You are confusing social distancing, self isolation and the quarantine of large populations.
Your treatment and outcomes will be largely determined by your age and health. If you get complications, you don’t want it at the peak.
And that means we are still at the flat part of the chart. Imagine the hysteria soon.
We're all very aware of who they are by now mate. They're advice is in the context of the government's strategy, that's what they're appointed to do.
The only actual strategy so far that's working is strict measures but let's ignore that because you see a spokesperson repeat the word science. If you've seen this research yourself and have been won over fine but can you link me to it?
Of the ones who'll get infected, most will get it in within a few weeks of the peak.
And the point of immediate social isolation is to attenuate the rise in occurrence to avoid a peak.
You fight it by having anyone with symptoms stay at home so it doesn't spread, treating the worst of them. I'm not sure what the benefit in spending resources identifying each and every case would be when a) there'll be an overwhelming amount of them and b) the treatment for the majority of those will consist of them doing what they've already been told to do and stay at home.
Different stages of the the outbreak.
UK has at the moment 8.7 cases per 1million of population.
Denmark has nearly 120 cases per 1million of poulation
Different stages mean different measures.
I'm not sure what you mean by the peak. The whole idea of social distancing is to ensure that there is no such "peak" and the rate of new infections stays flat so that the hospitals and doctors can cope.
Your outcome might be influenced by age and health but the people you infect without social distancing could still be vulnerable because of it.
Think of it as this.
Out of 100, at the current rate, 70 people could get infected tomorrow and if the hospital capacity is 20, then they're fecked.
Instead if the same 100 people get infected at the rate of 10 per week, then the hospitals can treat and discharge the first 20 in two weeks before the next 20 start hitting the hospital beds. That's the logic behind social distancing and slowing the transmission.
And how long do you think closing schools and having people away from non-medical, non-utility, and non-emergency services jobs is sustainable for? A fortnight, 4 weeks? We’re not going to be close to the peak then.
even worse, since their numbers are higher. They are the UK a couple of days ahead.
I work an office job, and drive to work. I'm fairly safe for now. But I've limited going out when I don't need to.
You still have a peak flattening the curve. We are still right at the beginning of this. The numbers grow massively from here in any best case scenario. A significant proportion of the population is getting COVID-19. That isn’t going to be avoided.
Donovan Mitchell from the Utah Jazz alongside Gobert as tested positive for the corona
But we're not yet at the point where this would be valuable, as each time you implement measurers they become less effective, and they also become less effective the longer they last. Timing is crucial.
Economy. Same as always with Tories. Science, GLOBALLY, has stated that 14 days is needed for even moderately successful quarantine.
It's solely about money for them. This is what people need to accept.
Your life or Healthcare means feck all to the people who (currently) take your taxes, all that matters is that you keep slogging away.
These are the same people who've dismantled the NHS.
And singing Happy Birthday to yourself - twice
The reported numbers are going to rise simply because more people will get tested. That's inevitable. They can't reduce the cases that are already out there but by keeping people at home, they can slow down person to person transmission so that they can get a grip on identifying those that are infected, quarantining them and reducing the exposure before the social distancing inevitably ends. You're right that this is not sustainable but the idea isn't to keep this going indefinitely but to make a dent large enough to get a grip on things.
Let's hope 'the science' and all their base case modelling takes into account the unpredictable nature of viruses.
If not, Boris has a lot of blood on his hands.
If not, Boris has a lot of blood on his hands.
It seems to me that Boris is taking a leaf out of Singapore's book with this 'marathon and not a sprint' approach. Sensible.
Are you trying to suggest that good hygiene is not worth the effort to limit this?And singing Happy Birthday to yourself - twice
I’m pretty happy with that. The peak is over 10 weeks away. I’m not sure what people are expecting to happen. Not everyone can afford to sit at home on redcafe micro analysing the virus news every day until summer
The 7 day isolation is weird though. Why not just say 14
The 7 day isolation is weird though. Why not just say 14
I don't understand this. If you look at the number of new cases, for example in Denmark it rose up by 10x yesterday, indicating that it is going to be exponential growth and unmanageable if it is allowed to go on.
I don’t think we are disagreeing.
That’s going to the be the case even if we put the country on lockdown tomorrow for six weeks. Then a population wide quarantine would be no longer sustainable when the situation is far, far worse.
Thanks, I've worked it out now! Was a bit mesmerised by the conference.
Ridiculous if that's the case. There should be a number specifically for simply reporting feeling unwell.
Who does the daycare?
Who does the daycare?
It's not about being "close" to the peak.
It's about outright avoiding the peak so we dont overwhelm the healthcare services.
We will get exponential growth at some point, if we quarantine now we reduce our ability to do it later when it could be more valuable.
Is he that pillock who spread it on the reporters mics?
We're not disagreeing on the action needed but we disagree on the timeline. You keep mentioning that this peak is three months away but the peak was clearly yesterday in Denmark, two weeks ago in Italy and not too far elsewhere in Europe. That is exactly why there are drastic measures being taken.
Only in the UK is ignoring a government quarantine order an actual thing considered by the government itself.
Feck me.
Feck me.
Those same healthcare services that are already overwhelmed due to ohwait, tories austerity toy.
Question I'd like to ask is what extra resources have the NHS been given?
Double the number of critical care units? Because we'll fecking need it.
That point was yesterday in Denmark, two weeks ago in Italy and its likely not too far away in the UK, hoping they are even testing at the same rate. One thing they've done here in Denmark is be efficient at testing.
Gobert is, no way to know who got infected first and did the rest but that's pointless, in times like these, you cannot joke about this.
Underappreicated dark humor there. Good stuff.
There’s a peak on every curve. It’s called “flattening the curve” for a reason and not “making a flat line”.