I'm not suggesting their results are wrong but perhaps their interpretation is at the pessimistic end of the scale. Probably not a bad idea to encourage getting the third shot for health and for (Pfizer's) financial reasons.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
I'm not suggesting their results are wrong but perhaps their interpretation is at the pessimistic end of the scale. Probably not a bad idea to encourage getting the third shot for health and for (Pfizer's) financial reasons.
Yeah wasn't the prediction 100k a day once freedom day happened in mid July? Nearly 6 months on and I think it's rarely gone above 50k daily cases despite more limited mask wearing on public transport/shops and full again sports stadiums.
Of course next two months are going to be a problem with how quickly this new variant is spreading but we'll see, just basic looking at graphs shows we're still some way off last December's grim figures currently.
I think schools being broken up a week early and then perhaps starting again middle of January might need to be looked at.
I think I'm going to have to organise a Christmas party if I want a work meeting in the next few weeks
So is it back to empty football grounds?
Since the Covid Pass has come in Italy has risen to 88% vaccination coverage in the over 12s but oddly it's the 40 year olds who are most reluctant to get it. Population coverage:
Age range 12-19 years 79%
20-29 years 93%
30-39 years 88%
40-49 years 86%
50-59 years 91%
60-69 years 92%
80-89 years 98%
Age range 12-19 years 79%
20-29 years 93%
30-39 years 88%
40-49 years 86%
50-59 years 91%
60-69 years 92%
80-89 years 98%
No, it'll just mean that everyone attending will have to either have a vaccine cert or a negative lateral flow.
This system has been in place in Scotland for a while now, but in larger venues it's only spot checks so maybe 30-40% of people actually get their certificate checked.
Another day and another chart of lab results on antibody neutralisation. Broadly that's your blood's ability to kill off Omicron before reinforcements (from the rest of your immune system) arrive.
This time, we've reached the pinnacle of emergency reporting. The preprint isn't ready but the tweet is! I'm only posting this because some proper scientists say it's actual lab results and that they have already seen more of the details:
Summarising. Past infection (labelled convalescent on the charts) unless very recent isn't helping against reinfection with Omicron. The ones optimistically labelled super immune are people who've had two vaccine doses + infection.
AZ + Pfizer (one dose of each) looks like a good combination. Boosters aren't on here but I'm going to guess anyone who has two doses of AZ + infection and had now been topped up with a Pfizer booster is about as well defended as you can get right now.
None of this tells you about protection from serious disease. It does give scientists modelling the likely infection rate growth over the next few weeks something to start from.
B.1.1.529 is Omicron
B.1.617.2 is Delta
This time, we've reached the pinnacle of emergency reporting. The preprint isn't ready but the tweet is! I'm only posting this because some proper scientists say it's actual lab results and that they have already seen more of the details:
Summarising. Past infection (labelled convalescent on the charts) unless very recent isn't helping against reinfection with Omicron. The ones optimistically labelled super immune are people who've had two vaccine doses + infection.
AZ + Pfizer (one dose of each) looks like a good combination. Boosters aren't on here but I'm going to guess anyone who has two doses of AZ + infection and had now been topped up with a Pfizer booster is about as well defended as you can get right now.
None of this tells you about protection from serious disease. It does give scientists modelling the likely infection rate growth over the next few weeks something to start from.
B.1.1.529 is Omicron
B.1.617.2 is Delta
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We've done well here, particularly when you consider it's not as easy to actually get a vaccination as it is in the UK. I suspect you have more choice where you live, but it's almost an hour's drive to the nearest centre offering me an appointment.
We have one small pharmacy in the village and although they're doing testing, you can't get a vaccination there (understandable, they simply don't have the capacity).
Agree. Been listening to LBC this morning and a couple of callers said they will refuse to get the booster after hearing about these parties. It's anecdotal and stupid, but I hope it doesn't become a big trend.
The timing of all of these data is interesting in the context of a possible drive to vaccinate 5 to 12 year olds. I will gladly queue up for my booster but I honestly find it impossible to justify giving my 10 year old daughter two doses of Pfizer in the knowledge it will provide so little protection and she has almost nothing to fear from covid anyway (nearly half her class have tested positive at some point, approx 50:50 split between minor head cold and no symptoms whatsoever)
So, help me if I'm wrong, but one needs to have had three immune responses to be considered "safe". It has nothing to do with the time that's elapsed since the second vaccination, right?
I've been fully vaccinated (August), but I need to wait 6 months (February) before I can get a booster.
That'll teach Boris, eh...
Thankfully people who call into radio shows are an odd little bunch who are not particularly representative of the wider public.
Excellent, I’ve had 2 AZ, Covid in November and a booster next week so I look forward to letting the world cough in my face
You need to verify your ID to get your COVID pass @Redlambs
I was wondering why I couldn't get mine yesterday so sent off my ID and got an email back today confirming it had been validated. Logged on and was able to download my pass immediately.
I was wondering why I couldn't get mine yesterday so sent off my ID and got an email back today confirming it had been validated. Logged on and was able to download my pass immediately.
I'm the same. Was expecting my booster date by now as my younger brother has his but I'm guessing I might be bumped down a few weeks after having covid.
My 6 months and 28 day periods came to pretty much the same day so I'll ask about the booster if I've not heard by New Year.
This is the group I'm fortunate to have just joined today. Had Covid early October following 2 AZ shots and managed to find a walk in centre in London offering Pfizer jabs to anyone over 18. Hopefully the booster drive carries on at the pace it seems to be, at least here. Queues were round the block - all ages and a range of backgrounds.
Remember - everyone has to stick to the, "it's a party," cover story of course.I think I'm going to have to organise a Christmas party if I want a work meeting in the next few weeks
@Redlambs did you ever figure it out? I have the exact same issue. Though curiously I'm able to download the travel pass, just not the domestic one which also gives me the same "How to get your domestic vaccine pass..." page.
Those of you saying that you need to send ID for validation? How? I don't see any prompt for such a thing.
Those of you saying that you need to send ID for validation? How? I don't see any prompt for such a thing.
It's working for me now, you might just have to wait a bit longer.
But no, you don't need to do the ID thing.
Got the Moderna booster 6 hours ago. Arm not really hurting, no weird feeling. Hopefully I have no symptoms in the morning either. Friend at work got her booster two days ago and it was hard on her almost immediately.
So that's two AZs and a Moderna. Decent combo.
So that's two AZs and a Moderna. Decent combo.
Jesus, Sturgeon’s conference all doom and gloom.
Wales has moved to weekly review of restrictions. So-called “Rule of Six” loading…
Similar pattern for UK overall. Omicron will be dominant by Christmas.
What’s the data looking like on severity of illness? Regardless, I’m convinced next week will bring stricter measures.
Too early to know. I’d say it’s extremely likely the % serious cases is lower than it would be in a completely naive population. Even though it’s spreading so fast it’s almost as though nobody has been exposed/vaccinated before.
If the illness isn't as serious why are people championing lockdown style restrictions again?
Surely its a different situation.
Because nobody knows for sure if the illness is less serious. Plus it could be a lot less serious and still leave hospitals completely overwhelmed if it keeps spreading at the current rate.
Surely though bringing in lockdown style restrictions without seeing any increase in admissions or deaths would be overly cautious?
Infection rate is climbing, granted, but until there's any inclination that the other two will do then I don't see the logic.
The logic is that hospitalisations and deaths (in that order) are the last metrics to change. If they start to sky-rocket it’s already too late to react. This is like steering a supertanker. Every tweak takes ages to have any effect but things can go very badly wrong very quickly.
Obviously everyone is watching countries further down this road extremely closely (i.e. South Africa) to try and use their experience to predict the UK’s future. But you can’t necessarily extrapolate one country’s experience to another. Uk has higher vaccination rates (good) but a much higher proportion of elderly/vulnerable (bad) And the whole situation is moving incredibly fast.
No I understand and that makes sense but there's no noise anywhere that this is becoming serious is there?
I'm not anti lockdown by any stretch and I'm vaccinated and happy to do whatever is required however I don't think we should just go into lockdowns without careful consideration based on the damage it does to people and the economy.
There’s plenty of noise about this being very serious indeed. All of the experts are extremely nervous.
I don’t think a full lockdown is on the cards. I hope not anyway. I do think we’ll come very close to needing one. Squeaky bum time for at least another month or two.
Essentially the gap between exposure to covid and hospitalisation is around two weeks. We're already seeing a drift up in hospitalisations (currently only in working age adults. We're still talking about a relatively small number of omicron cases - we're at least a week from knowing what the hospitalisation profile looks like: by age, by past infection, by double vaxxed, by boosted etc. The raw numbers/rates needed to model what happens next simply don't exist.
Some people are going with caution - assume severity pattern same as delta but with a larger group capable of getting infected and infecting others. In which case we need to slam the infection control brakes on. If it's milder then early controls leave the door open to keeping things normal for family/friends meeting over Christmas without crashing the hospital system by New Year's.
Once you "wait and see" you have zero control over timing of any surge. You either get away with it - and we're all happy or we don't and we've baked in a huge rise in hospitalisations and deaths starting around Christmas and accelerating in January.
For me personally that means no proper parties until Christmas and LFTs in the morning before I meet older/more vulnerable relatives and friends. That pattern won't be true for everyone of course.
Thanks. Yeah that's sensible and I think everyone should be. I guess everyone has different opinions on how to approach the risk it presents. I'm cautious however I also feel we have to be realistic.
First report I've seen detailing disease progress in a group of young vaccine triple dosed/boosted adults.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3981711
Only 7 cases noted but it definitely confirms that boosted adults can not only catch it, they do get symptoms. None hospitalised, but then that would be typical for 7 young adults with any of the variants.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3981711
Only 7 cases noted but it definitely confirms that boosted adults can not only catch it, they do get symptoms. None hospitalised, but then that would be typical for 7 young adults with any of the variants.
I know it’s very early for any significant data on Omicron severe illnesses and deaths but is there anything at all to work with?
Burn-Murdoch just did a new twitter thread 20mins ago. Pretty certain it will lead to less deaths/hospitalisations, whether the reason is vaccines/prior infection or milder variant (it isn't really that important which it is).
Given it seems to be doubling every 2,5 days, only a hard lock-down would contain it, and unless one wants to do it for several months, it is most likely best, to just let it go through population.
Thread on latest omicron data in uk.
tl;dr. Previous infection/unboosted vaccines gives little or no protection against infection. Unboosted AZ gives zero protection, Pfizer = 30% (both may still give protection against serious disease)
Boosted vaccine (Pfizer, in 1st month) does give reasonable protection (70%) against infection (the good news!).
Seems to be a hell of lot more transmissible than delta (or any other known variant). Individual cases much more likely to become household outbreak and cases rising faster than any previous wave.
Small numbers make all the above not very robust but is consistent with data in other countries and in labs.
"Both may still give..." May? That sounds a little worrisome... I prefer "would" to "may"