To be fair, large chunks of the population don’t have anything to fear. Especially if they’re vaccinated. We’re asking them to modify their behaviour for the greater good. Which becomes a bigger and bigger ask as time goes on.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
To be fair, large chunks of the population don’t have anything to fear. Especially if they’re vaccinated. We’re asking them to modify their behaviour for the greater good. Which becomes a bigger and bigger ask as time goes on.
I don't "fear" it for myself but certainly for others around me. I know and regularly see a lot of people in the more vulnerable age groups. I'd also hate to be responsible for spreading it amongst a group of friends if I met them (one of our friends already did that and felt like a right dickhead for days even though it wasn't actually his fault).
That said with the vaccines my "fear" has diminished considerably knowing those people are all jabbed, but it's still there, I guess it's finding a reasonable balance between living your life and being careful enough. Right now I'm being a bit more careful than I have been the last number of months cause I'd rather not get Covid before going home to visit the family for Xmas.
I'm sure a lot of people don't give a toss anymore, though. I mean, most of the older, vulnerable cohort I visit give far less of a shit about it than I do, almost feels like a waste of time sometimes.
I work in tax advisory for a firm of chartered accountants.
What. A. Prick.
you already knew thatI have to say it every time though.
Without being too flippant, if you're 75 and imagine yourself having somewhere between 0 and 20 years left - 2 years is a long time.
Some of them can cope with the isolation (and there has been a lot of isolation for people living alone or even in a couple who stuck to the rules). Some have, to all practical purposes, become housebound through fear now. But others decided after they'd been vaccinated that they'd given it their best shot
and they wanted to start going out, visiting family and friends - and take their chances.Unfortunately right now, with Omicron looking like it's good at infecting people (including those with some immunity through vaccine or past infection) the chances are that if we're all "taking our chances" the hospitals will be filling up fast.
Anecdotal evidence but it’s very sad that so many BAME people I know are still resisting the jabs. Aren’t they among the most at risk of severe illness if infected?
On yeah of course, not debating that whatsoever. My father is 73, worked like hell his whole life and it pains me that he has been stuck here for the last two years because he's been doing loads of travelling since he retired. Don't blame his generation one bit.Without being too flippant, if you're 75 and imagine yourself having somewhere between 0 and 20 years left - 2 years is a long time.
Some of them can cope with the isolation (and there has been a lot of isolation for people living alone or even in a couple who stuck to the rules). Some have, to all practical purposes, become housebound through fear now. But others decided after they'd been vaccinated that they'd given it their best shot
Unfortunately right now, with Omicron looking like it's good at infecting people (including those with some immunity through vaccine or past infection) the chances are that if we're all "taking our chances" the hospitals will be filling up fast.
Things are worse than I thought with regards to Omicron. A preliminary study from Pfizer shows that there is next to no protection (at least with regards to antibodies) a few months after getting the second dose. However, things are better with the booster.
Some preliminary data from a lab in Frankfurt are even worse: 0% protection 6 months after two doses of mRNA vaccine. Around 40% after the booster, but it goes to 25% after 3 months. Not a peer reviewed study yet.
We need an updated vaccine ASAP.
Some preliminary data from a lab in Frankfurt are even worse: 0% protection 6 months after two doses of mRNA vaccine. Around 40% after the booster, but it goes to 25% after 3 months. Not a peer reviewed study yet.
We need an updated vaccine ASAP.
There have been multiple studies released in the past 24 hours. That's the most pessimistic one and it's still not as bad as the worst case that some virus scientists had feared. It does make the boosters look more important than ever though.
Crucially - no one should delay getting vaccinated or boosted on the basis that there will be a better vaccine around next summer. We've got a winter to get through and the fewer people who get hospitalised or die the better.
Unless we get news that prior vaccination (or past infection) does little/nothing to protect us from severe disease with Omicron the current vaccines remain vital.
Yes, this seems the most pessimistic one. On the other hand, it seems to be the only one which is done with active virus, not with a pseudo-virus. So, I assume, the one which models real-world best?
Of course, this is only measuring the response of antibodies. We also know that memory cells and T-cells can play a very important role, and my understanding is that they are more general than antobodies, so should be less affected. Furthermore, the study is not telling about the severity of the infection (we won't know it for a while), so while we might get effected, we might still have some defense from the vaccine, enough to not get very sick. The anecdotal evidence in South Africa is that even without vaccinations, the virus is less severe than Delta.
Completely agree about getting the booster. I booked one for 20th of December (5 months and 20 days after the second one). I do not expect the updated vaccine to start getting shipped till March, which likely means that I won't be able to get one until July or so (30yo and healthy), so better to have some protection till then, than none.
It's thought that around 20% of black and 10% of Asian people in England amongst the over 80s are unvaccinated. That's against a background where almost all white British people over 60 are fully vaccinated.
The differences are there in the younger age groups as well. Not quite as potentially deadly, but still taking an unnecessary extra risk for themselves and other family members. Take-up rates in the under 40s in general in England aren't great though - a combination of feeling indestructible + distrust I guess.
There's a decent summary at:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ons-may-not-have-had-a-covid-jab-who-are-they
Uh oh …
Another piece of good news, from Singapore this time.
Don't want the vaccine? Fine, but you'll pay for your own medical care if you catch Covid.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/not-va...y-for-your-own-covid-19-treatment-11638965343
Don't want the vaccine? Fine, but you'll pay for your own medical care if you catch Covid.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/not-va...y-for-your-own-covid-19-treatment-11638965343
Compliance with any restrictions will be on the floor in the UK after this Tory Xmas Party stuff - no one believes it didn’t happen and there’s nothing people like less than one rule for them and another for the rest of us.
this is great. And exactly what I wanted since everybody had the chance to get vaccinated. To add to that, I'd like to see a priority list for hospitals.
There's a lot of people having their cake and eating it here. Criticising the Government for having a party last year while the population were making their heroic sacrifices, while at the same time just last year saying they were having a getting together with friends and family anyway, the rules are nonsensical plus all the other excuses. It's almost like they're taking advantage of an excuse to have another party this year...
I partially agree however, the government as the rule setters, should lead by example.
However the problem comes from people needing the government to set an example rather than making their own sensible judgments. A portion of the population would probably stop wiping their arse if they found out BJ didn't do it.
Rinse & repeat.
With this talk of “plan B” is there any indication of what that means for travel?
We have friends we’ve not seen for two years due to arrive from the US next Friday so I’m really hoping they don’t get scuppered. Obviously jabbed and have even had boosters.
We have friends we’ve not seen for two years due to arrive from the US next Friday so I’m really hoping they don’t get scuppered. Obviously jabbed and have even had boosters.
Everything I’ve seen so far points towards vaccine passports and WFH mandates. Nothing on travel that I’ve seen (other than the day 2 PCR and pre departure tests).
WFH, Vaccine Passports, Masks, quarantine for vaccinated if contact traced and honestly i expect schools not to open in January ... bugger
From what I can gather, I don't think there would be further restrictions on international travel. In regards to required testing, that's currently at the strictest level it's been at since the pandemic started.
I think plan b would mainly include advice regarding WFH, new mask policy and the need for covid test/vaccine certification to access certain public activities/spaces. But it's all feeling very up in the air right now.
To be fair, a portion would also probably start doing it as well.
Good thread
This in particular worries me
This in particular worries me
Thanks both, yea they’re all set up for their PCR tests on arrival so fingers crossed that will be sufficient.
I, for one, followed the rules. Not necessarily because the government told us not to, but largely because it was sensible at the time. Still, posts like this are a huge generalisation and even if some broke them anyway and want to use it as an excuse, there are many people who did follow the rules. And even if the decision this year won’t be changed because of the governments breach of their own rules because people like me will still make our own decisions within the bounds of the rules, it is both incredibly disrespectful from them, and more understandable for those who will now choose not to because of it. And to be honest it isn’t about parties for the most part. It’s the inference on all the other rules people followed to which something like this is a kick in the teeth. It’s the rules preventing you seeing someone in hospital who doesn’t have covid but can’t because of the rules. Or seeing a lonely grand parent because of the rules. Or a whole host of things far more personal and important than Christmas parties.
I don’t see how Omicron is going to significantly prolong the pandemic - at the rate it spreads by the end of January everyone within the U.K. and EU will have either had a booster or have been exposed to it. The scary unknown is unless it is significantly milder I don’t see how hospitals aren’t about to get overwhelmed. Do we introduce tough restrictions for 6 weeks to give everyone the chance to get their booster or do we take a gamble on it being milder/community immunity being high enough to keep hospitalisations manageable…I suspect Boris will be going for option B like he did with Delta in the summer.
For anyone curious about what these antibody neutralisation trials look like and why they differ both in the numbers they produce and the way they present it:
In ireland, 7,359 cases were recorded in the 5-12 age group. An increase of 21% compared to last week.
Wow, who knew that kids pickup every illness going around? It’s almost like everyone stick their head in the sand to this fact.
now they are recommending 5-12 year olds get vaccinated
Wow, who knew that kids pickup every illness going around? It’s almost like everyone stick their head in the sand to this fact.
now they are recommending 5-12 year olds get vaccinated
Yeah, that’s an interesting one. A much steeper peak on the way up could mean a steep peak on the way down. The area under the curve (total infected) much bigger but duration could be shorter.
The big unknown (one of many!) is how this interacts with delta. In South Africa they were out the other end of their delta wave. Everyone is assuming this will immediately dominate delta but what happens if they co-exist over the next couple of months? Could we all end up getting a dose of delta and a dose of omicron? Or vice versa? What does that mean to the duration of the current surge?
It would be interesting to know how many of the 7000 had any symptoms or were actually ill.
All the arguing about kids is getting silly at this point. Nobody was sticking their head in the sand. What’s happening right now is a surge of cases in the unvaccinated. Which obviously includes kids under 12. And we would have ridden that surge out without any real drama thanks to boosters in adults (hospitalisations currently stable/decreasing, ICU likewise) and the fact covid doesn’t make kids very sick; if it wasn’t for omicron on the horizon. That’s the obvious reason behind the recent restrictions/general apprehension from NPHET et al.
I know I take the piss on the kids thing with you but in fairness I think it's justifiable for people to be a bit miffed about how the schools were handled. I don't think anyone realistically wanted them closed but the fact that they got rid of contact tracing, didn't introduce antigen testing when they said they would, sent incredibly mixed messages on mask wearing (and have now changed their minds despite repeatedly saying the opposite) and all around kept saying that schools were perfectly safe. I think questions have to be asked but at the other end of the spectrum they are getting a bit of an unfair rep cause as you said, they are the only cohort not vaxxed now. I think we can all agree though that the best solution is for Storm Barra to hang around until winter is over.
That’s all fair criticism.
The “perfectly safe” thing is a little unfair. The context was that it was safe to keep schools open, with the measures in place at the time. Which it was, based on the variants that were dominant at the time those original quotes were made. Delta move the goalposts.
Delta did move the goalposts but we should have moved in context with it, instead we removed contact tracing etc
I was always annoyed at this idea at the time that kids can’t spread this thing around. Yes they might not get as sick but they surely could spread it like everything else they bring home from school.
but schools needed to stay open at all cost. After all who was going to look after the kids when mummy and daddy were at work? Not the grandparents. Schools were needed. I get that. I just wish there was consistency across the board. For example we had shielding letters and were seeing nobody apart from, sending kids to school. Defeating the purpose. We were told that there was nothing in place for that scenario and we’d be reported to social services if we kept our kids off
I personally think that it’s because kids are getting tested properly now, not just a few here and there, coupled with a surge
Is there a press conference in the UK today regarding potential new covid policies?