SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[jojojo]

Just a personal anecdotal update here from SA - I know a shit ton of people who are covid positive now. Probably more than Wuhan, Beta and Delta waves combined. Lots are re-infection after double Pfizer as well (also some with double J&J). From what I’ve seen:
- families more likely to get it now I.e. one infection in the house leads to all infected
- everyone seems to start with a sore throat. No loss of taste or smell this time around.
- this thing is much much milder than past waves. Don’t know a single person who has had to go onto oxygen or hospital (last waves I knew quite a few who went into hospital including ICU)

That's interesting. First summaries on cases amongst people who've had boosters are saying sore throat and fatigue as the clearest first symptoms, followed by a dry cough a few days later.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3981711

Big question now is how it behaves when it's the older groups who catch it. Plus, the other big unknown - what about those who've neither been vaxxed nor had prior infection? In the UK and SA there probably aren't many over 18s who haven't either had it before or been vaxxed. Not all countries are at the same point.

 

[stw2022]

Long term IF this is a milder variant could the fact it spreads so fast be positive and potentially help if more deadly variants spread in future

 

[decorativeed]

As for the bolded, as opposed to 410bn (and counting) in the UK on nothing tangible? In my opinion, yes. Hell, use them afterwards and turn them into regular wards, and decommission/sell off some the old haggered hospitals/wards/departments to property developers when the time comes.

We're not talking regular construction money here, it'd be throwing the kitchen sink at it. And we're not saying build it in 15 days like the T20 Tower, I'm saying 2 years for specialist Covid wards or Covid hospitals with almost an unlimited amount of money.

The NHS did an online course to train up non-ICU nurses to work with intensive care Covid patients, New York had something similar. Nepal trained up 11,000. We're pretty much approaching 2 years now so I'm not talking about that kind of ridiculous fast tracking. Fair enough regarding taking away resources from other fields, whilst I'm not sure it's the "non-starter" you claim it is, as well, we're having to do that constantly as it is, but yeah that's obviously a real difficult one.

You seem to think we could have spent the £410bn on new hospitals rather than nothing, when what we'd actually needed to have done is to spend the £410bn on having lockdowns while also spending however many billions on the hospitals and staff.

The staff part is much easier said than done, given how devastating the pandemic has been to the physical and mental health of the health workers themselves. The building of these facilities would also have taken the best part of a decade in normal times and likely much moreso given the shortage of labour in that sector following brexit, the shortage of and high cost of materials following brexit and the pandemic and the issues we've had recently with big construction firms like Carillion going bust. By the time the first of these facilities were opened and staffed, the likelihood would be that the pandemic would be long behind us.

 

[stw2022]

We were promised 40 new hospitals which turned out to be a new car park for one and refurbished entrance doors on the other 39

 

[Sparky Rhiwabon]

This will make me sound insensitive and a bit of a prick but the monumental effort it’s taken/taking to get any form of vaccination as quick as they have is mental enough as it is.

Im sure pills/alternatives might be developed but It’s got to make sense to focus on one form of vaccination in the short term so you’ll likely just have to grin and bare it.

Yeah, I know, I get it but there is a practical advantage in maximising the amount of vaccination take up, as well as the selfish reason of me being a big wuss. To be fair, they are the least painful ones I’ve had, I couldn’t even feel the one yesterday, but I know that if I somehow get a bad one where it hurts and gives me flashbacks to the bad experience, it will finish me off from getting any more.

 

[jojojo]

Long term IF this is a milder variant could the fact it spreads so fast be positive and potentially help if more deadly variants spread in future

Basically, yes but maybe not, and certainly not in a way that guarantees how much more/less deadly future variants might be.

The Spanish flu is still here, it still kills people, it kills fewer people than it did in its pandemic phase because we aren't immune naive, and the most vulnerable (mostly kids and the old) get vaccines/boosters.

That said, if it really is less deadly and less likely to leave people with ongoing illness then the fact it's so contagious is indeed good news. Unfortunately we don't know the answer to the less deadly, less ongoing illness questions and won't really know for sure for weeks.

There's a massive amount of luck involved right now. In countries where vaccine uptake is high, and past infection is covering most of the rest of the population - this might well be the wave that tips us from pandemic to endemic, and leave almost everyone with immune responses ready for future fights. The hope is that it does so without a massive number of new deaths and massive disruption to social harmony.

So far we know next to nothing about what it will do when it hits previously uninfected and unvaxxed people - there may be nothing mild about this variant at all.

 

[Massive Spanner]

Worrying reports this morning of the AZ vaccine offering little or no resistance to the omicron variant.

That’s a heck of a lot of folk!

I feel so invincible with my Pfizer. Bring it on, omicron.

 

[Pexbo]

Basically, yes but maybe not, and certainly not in a way that guarantees how much more/less deadly future variants might be.

The Spanish flu is still here, it still kills people, it kills fewer people than it did in its pandemic phase because we aren't immune naive, and the most vulnerable (mostly kids and the old) get vaccines/boosters.

That said, if it really is less deadly and less likely to leave people with ongoing illness then the fact it's so contagious is indeed good news. Unfortunately we don't know the answer to the less deadly, less ongoing illness questions and won't really know for sure for weeks.

There's a massive amount of luck involved right now. In countries where vaccine uptake is high, and past infection is covering most of the rest of the population - this might well be the wave that tips us from pandemic to endemic, and leave almost everyone with immune responses ready for future fights. The hope is that it does so without a massive number of new deaths and massive disruption to social harmony.

So far we know next to nothing about what it will do when it hits previously uninfected and unvaxxed people - there may be nothing mild about this variant at all.

One thing I worry about and is probably my lack of understanding is if this is vaccine/immune resistant of the alpha/delta targeted vaccines and immunity, what’s to say that it’s not going to work in the opposite direction?

So omicron immunity won’t protect from another alpha/delta lineage variation?

 

[jojojo]

One thing I worry about and is probably my lack of understanding is if this is vaccine/immune resistant of the alpha/delta targeted vaccines and immunity, what’s to say that it’s not going to work in the opposite direction?

So omicron immunity won’t protect from another alpha/delta lineage variation?

Unknown and unknowable? They will be able to do some retrospective tests soon - blood taken from Omicron cases tested to see if it neutralises Delta, alpha, beta viruses. There's a major complication though - it's going to be really hard in most countries to find someone who is unvaxxed and can be shown not to have had a past infection.

The other kind of study that we'll get results from soon (January maybe?) will be the first trials of Omicron targeted vaccines. They'll certainly test the blood for its ability to neutralise other variants. Again though, there's a complication - the chances of finding a clinical trial volunteer who has neither been previously vaccinated nor infected by then is probably closer to zero. Though they may be able to find people whose immunity has waned.

They may get some data from animal trials, but that will come with caveats as well.

 

[jojojo]

These are all chronic problems going on for years and years. One thing a pandemic is good at is exposing all the cracks in a health service that have been papered over (or made worse) by mismanagement from the very top down. I’m just not sure there’s the expertise or political will to fix so many long term problems in time to make a meaningful difference with this pandemic. It’s certainly has no bearing on our response to omicron.

Sure. I think I'm just profoundly frustrated by the idea that Tory politicians can still get away with talking about protecting the NHS while strangling it.

Mind you I'm even more frustrated that Labour have let them get away with it. They've had time to make the argument about resources in health and social care and for better sick pay and to put that centre stage. Instead they've continually let themselves get caught up in government rhetoric about stronger border controls and more stringent lockdowns.

 

[Shakesy]

I'm trying to determine what the chances are that I've had Covid. Things to consider:

• I live in a remote South African town - a holiday destination
• We've not been spared any wave
• My wife has been sick many times, but she has never tested positive
• I've been ill a couple of times since March 2020
• I've never been tested

So, 60%? 70%? Or 30%?

 

[choccy77]

I feel so invincible with my Pfizer. Bring it on, omicron.

Pfizer guy said you need 4 injections though.

Hardly invincible, although great from a marketing point of view

 

[Jippy]

Just had my booster. Moderna on top of two AZ doses. Hopefully it's fine like the second jab, not horrendous like the first one.

 

[F-Red]

For those in the UK, this was broadcast last night and definitely worth watching on catch up. Interesting insight on Pfizer and we'll probably begin to hear more of this in the coming months/years

 

[jojojo]

Updated report on ICU admissions in the UK. This week's version contains the latest data on vaxxed/unvaxxed status of ICU admissions.

Summarising - get vaccinated. If you're eligible, get boosted. If you or someone you know is unvaxxed and can get vaccinated, particularly if they are pregnant, male or over 40 - encourage them to get vaccinated.

Leave those ICU beds free for the unlucky.

 

[Pexbo]

Unknown and unknowable? They will be able to do some retrospective tests soon - blood taken from Omicron cases tested to see if it neutralises Delta, alpha, beta viruses. There's a major complication though - it's going to be really hard in most countries to find someone who is unvaxxed and can be shown not to have had a past infection.

The other kind of study that we'll get results from soon (January maybe?) will be the first trials of Omicron targeted vaccines. They'll certainly test the blood for its ability to neutralise other variants. Again though, there's a complication - the chances of finding a clinical trial volunteer who has neither been previously vaccinated nor infected by then is probably closer to zero. Though they may be able to find people whose immunity has waned.

They may get some data from animal trials, but that will come with caveats as well.

Thanks for the explanation it makes sense.

 

[F-Red]

Updated report on ICU admissions in the UK. This week's version contains the latest data on vaxxed/unvaxxed status of ICU admissions.

Summarising - get vaccinated. If you're eligible, get boosted. If you or someone you know is unvaxxed and can get vaccinated, particularly if they are pregnant, male or over 40 - encourage them to get vaccinated.

Leave those ICU beds free for the unlucky.

My relative is high up at Wythenshawe and as of Wednesday their entire covid ICU capacity was taken up by unvaccinated folk.

 

[Rado_N]

Do we know when boosters might be made available to under 40’s? I’m keen to get that in my arm ASAP.

 

[F-Red]

Do we know when boosters might be made available to under 40’s? I’m keen to get that in my arm ASAP.

Rumours that next week we'll see it opened up to the under 40's.

 

[ZupZup]

I am just under 40 and had been hoping to get the booster in before Christmas… but I’ve just caught Covid and tested positive after developing symptoms on Wednesday evening.

Ran a fever for just over 24 hours… muscle aches and a headache. Now feeling better and just have cold like symptoms - stuffy nose and slight cough. No loss of taste or smell thankfully.

 

[jojojo]

Rumours that next week we'll see it opened up to the under 40's.

Yep. Booking system has changed to allowing over 40s to book at 3 months + from second dose. Expected to change next week (basically once the pre-Christmas slots have gone) to include under 40s.

Some walk-ins are being more generous though. Large London sites in particular, where there are doctors available (they can override the official vaccination checklist on the computers) seem to be accepting younger people (particularly those at 6 months +) and over 40s at 3 months.

That said, as of yesterday, some walk-in sites - particularly the pharmacy led ones that don't have a doctor on site - were still not accepting over 40s who had been booked at 179 days after second dose (insisting that it had to be at least 182) as the national instruction hasn't been updated. Hopefully that bit has now been fixed for this weekend's walk-ins.

 

[One Night Only]

How many jabs will we have to have in the end? 2 or 3 a year?

At this rate we would be better off developing a vaccine that goes into toothpaste. Daily doses.

 

[theyneverlearn]

I am just under 40 and had been hoping to get the booster in before Christmas… but I’ve just caught Covid and tested positive after developing symptoms on Wednesday evening.

Ran a fever for just over 24 hours… muscle aches and a headache. Now feeling better and just have cold like symptoms - stuffy nose and slight cough. No loss of taste or smell thankfully.

Sorry to hear.

I’ve got identical symptoms and took a PCR this morning, but I’ve been getting negative LFT’s all week (I complete them daily for work).

How did you test for it?

 

[decorativeed]

Do we know when boosters might be made available to under 40’s? I’m keen to get that in my arm ASAP.

Over in Tameside, we've got vaccine buses offering first, second and third doses to anyone over 18. My wife is under 40 and is booked in at a local vaccination centre next week, so you should be able to get one whenever you want, I'd have thought.

 

[ZupZup]

Sorry to hear.

I’ve got identical symptoms and took a PCR this morning, but I’ve been getting negative LFT’s all week (I complete them daily for work).

How did you test for it?

LFT… however, I did an LFT when I first started feeling under the weather and that was negative. After a night of worsening symptoms I did one in the morning and that was positive.

I don’t really trust the LFT’s that much but I think false positives are very rare and tbh, with my symptoms I just kind of knew it was Covid anyway. A PCR test arrived in the post today so I will do that and send it back.

 

[Garethw]

So are the figures bad enough for Boris to push the button on another Christmas lockdown? Or is January more likely?

 

[horsechoker]

So are the figures bad enough for Boris to push the button on another Christmas lockdown? Or is January more likely?

Which is more beneficial to Boris? That's the only thing he cares about

 

[groovyalbert]

Do we know when boosters might be made available to under 40’s? I’m keen to get that in my arm ASAP.

Check to see with local walk in centers now

 

[FootballHQ]

Do we know when boosters might be made available to under 40’s? I’m keen to get that in my arm ASAP.

Early Jan I'd presume unless you fancy one on xmas day.

Think end of January is target for all people who want a booster to receive one but seems wildly optmisitc, probably more start of March. And then a revised vaccine hopefully produced from May to make summer as normal as possible.

 

[Rado_N]

Cheers all. Might try my luck with a walk-in centre.

 

[Utd heap]

So are the figures bad enough for Boris to push the button on another Christmas lockdown? Or is January more likely?

They'll do everything they can to avoid a lock down but more and more tightening of restrictions look inevitable.

Basically watch what Scotland and Wales do. We will do it a week later.

 

[FriedClams]

I wonder in retrospect if the entire planet could turn back the clock, would we just switch the world off for 3 weeks and allow the military to drop rations at our doors.

I’m having difficulty maintaining a neutral mentality when it comes to discussing this now, which so far I’ve found to be the best way to avoid damaging relationships. There are people who say “you can’t lock us down, the economy will suffer too much” yet don’t realize that if people get too sick to go to work (particularly in the hospitality industry) then it causes a huge blow to the economy anyway.

 

[djembatheking]

After the first jab it was implied that we would be pretty well protected after having the 2nd 6 months later . Now we also need a booster and there is talk of a tweaked vaccine for Omicron next year. I know it`s all new and no one can really answer the questions but it seems more and more hit and miss and experimental as we go along. Surely if you have had 2 jabs then you must have a fair bit of protection, especially if you have had covid and recovered without being too ill ? I do wonder where it will end and at what point people will start to call it a day on the jabs, especially the younger ones.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I wonder in retrospect if the entire planet could turn back the clock, would we just switch the world off for 3 weeks and allow the military to drop rations at our doors.

I’m having difficulty maintaining a neutral mentality when it comes to discussing this now, which so far I’ve found to be the best way to avoid damaging relationships. There are people who say “you can’t lock us down, the economy will suffer too much” yet don’t realize that if people get too sick to go to work (particularly in the hospitality industry) then it causes a huge blow to the economy anyway.

I think about that a lot. But we now know covid can infect animals. So even what you describe there wouldn’t eradicate it.

 

[Garethw]

Hopefully the work from home order and the closing of schools for Christmas next week will help to reduce the infection rates.

 

[MTF]

I wonder in retrospect if the entire planet could turn back the clock, would we just switch the world off for 3 weeks and allow the military to drop rations at our doors.

I’m having difficulty maintaining a neutral mentality when it comes to discussing this now, which so far I’ve found to be the best way to avoid damaging relationships. There are people who say “you can’t lock us down, the economy will suffer too much” yet don’t realize that if people get too sick to go to work (particularly in the hospitality industry) then it causes a huge blow to the economy anyway.

Are the military and food supply chain workers immune from covid? It's a pipe dream.

Also the impact of a lock down is greater to the economy than any of the waves that have occurred under low-to-no restrictions, by some magnitude.

 

[theyneverlearn]

LFT… however, I did an LFT when I first started feeling under the weather and that was negative. After a night of worsening symptoms I did one in the morning and that was positive.

I don’t really trust the LFT’s that much but I think false positives are very rare and tbh, with my symptoms I just kind of knew it was Covid anyway. A PCR test arrived in the post today so I will do that and send it back.

Thanks. I expect the PCR to come negative, but have heard of people getting negative LFT’s and then positive PCR’s.

 

[djembatheking]

Hopefully the work from home order and the closing of schools for Christmas next week will help to reduce the infection rates.

It might make a small difference but pubs will be packed from now til the end of the year while the weather is shite, it`s hard to see cases coming down. Hopefully our hospitals can cope. My wife has just come out after surgery and I have never seen it so busy.

 

[Massive Spanner]

I think about that a lot. But we now know covid can infect animals. So even what you describe there wouldn’t eradicate it.

It’s true, there’s just no way of keeping the Travellers locked up.

 

[jojojo]

One for people interested in what kind of modelling the scientists are presenting via SAGE to the NHS and the government.

Two things to note before you read the headlines about "scientists predict" millions of cases, hundreds of thousands of hospitalisations and tens of thousands of deaths:
First - they aren't predictions. They describe a set of assumptions based on current best evidence and look at what happens if nothing else changes (ie: no lockdowns, no people deciding to limit their own social activities etc and that their other assumptions about vaccines etc hold true)
Second - they have to make assumptions about severity. So they assume that once infected you're as likely to get hospitalised/die as you would be if you caught delta. In reality we don't yet know if that's true.

A glimpse into the complex and difficult world of statistical modelling and what goes on behind the headlines: