“Coughing around the Christmas tree,
Have a happy holiday..”
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Have a happy holiday..”
I heard a good analogy on why omicron being milder is probably wishful thinking. If you have a rapid population explosion then you’ll have a much higher proportion of young people in your population than you did before the recent dramatic increase in numbers. In covid terms “young” = diagnosed within the last week and it takes at least a week to end up sick enough to need oxygen/hospital.
All of which needs to be taken into account when we see stats about only a small % of total cases being serious.
All of which needs to be taken into account when we see stats about only a small % of total cases being serious.
Lockdowns are gone, with all the stuff that’s leaked out and the idiots in charge you can say it’s a lockdown but theres a considerable amount of the population now that don’t care.
Im on the optimistic side that this is the beginning of the end and this is turning into a mainly mild disease and we will move on, could be a struggle this winter but from then on I believe the worst of it is behind us.
I long stopped caring about the media narrative.
An opposite view to the most frequent posters which appear to be in the glass half empty side, couldn’t tell you whose right or wrong just different perspectives
Im on the optimistic side that this is the beginning of the end and this is turning into a mainly mild disease and we will move on, could be a struggle this winter but from then on I believe the worst of it is behind us.
I long stopped caring about the media narrative.
An opposite view to the most frequent posters which appear to be in the glass half empty side, couldn’t tell you whose right or wrong just different perspectives
What are you saying though? Do you think it will completely evade immunity or that vaccinations and previous infections will make it appear milder because of the T-Cell response?
Im pretty sure that’s near impossible it can evade to a degree but never completely.
I’m referring to the early data coming out of South Africa showing a higher % of mild cases than with previous waves. A lot of people are seeing this as ‘proof’ that omicron causes less serious disease than delta. Without considering how much steeper this wave is than previous waves. Steeper wave = much higher proportion newly diagnosed/not yet serious. Which we can’t infer to mean omicron definitely causes fewer serious cases.
Immune escape is a separate issue. The anecdotal reports of multiple cases amongst the recently boosted are a worry (although not surprising when you see exponential growth in a population with very high % of previous infections). But it’s possible that the vaccinated are still getting good protection against serious illness. It’s also possible that prior illness in the unvaccinated gives similar protection. It’s too early to know though. And, to be honest, a scenario where neither of these things hold true doesn’t bear thinking about.
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Consensus is that it will be ok for most people who've been vaxxed (especially the boosted) and most people who've been previously infected.
It's the definition of most that we're struggling with. Does that mean the same number of people that are vulnerable to Delta will be vulnerable to Omicron? If that's the case and Omicron spreads as fast as it appears to, hospitals will be full just after Christmas and people will be dying because they don't have room to treat them (covid cases or otherwise) properly.
If things are worse, that is if not only do more people catch it, but the effectiveness of the vaccine or past infection against serious disease is reduced then we crash sooner.
If the vulnerable to severe illness is reduced (Omicron for optimists) then we might get away with it - but we'll still see a lot of deaths over Christmas and into the new year and hospitals will basically come to a standstill on anything except emergency care.
In the UK they're already considering changing the infection control rules in hospitals because wards containing people who aren't in because of covid, but who test positive for it, need extra space around them. Current rules may reduce overall bed capacity by so much, that if general case rates rise further they'll run out of space just due to that.
Most of the virologists etc that I've heard say this is unlikely at least.
I take your first point which is why I'm half dreading this wedding I've got this weekend. Two days inside a small country pub. It seems that we're stuck in the worst position where Omicron could be circulating but we don't know just how bad it is yet. I've not yet been told of any mitigation measures in place for the event either and I don't really want to be the person complaining about it!
Finally some positive news coming out of Tottenham
Exactly. I’ve done everything that they have asked, but this year I will be doing a lateral flow test on Xmas eve and as long as I get a negative reading I will be seeing my family this Christmas regardless of the restrictions.
Exactly the same as the mass infection at the christmas party in Norway. All double vaxxed, all minor symptoms or asymptomatic.
Which is perfectly fair and balanced. It's what everyone should be doing.
I'd have thought most would accept restrictions around office parties and nightclubs etc if it meant they could have christmas with the family.
I feel like i made this argument last year but the all or nothing approach from the government doesn't make much sense to me. They insist on public concern being high before doing anything sensible.
My gut feeling is that if you’re young and fully vaccinated you don’t have much to worry about, omicron or no omicron. We could all be locked down soon, so might as well enjoy ourselves as much as we can meanwhile!
Cheers. I'll try my best to enjoy it!
So what's the status around the world? Looking increasingly likely that our government (Denmark) will pull another lever soon and close down the nightlife after having re-introduced masks in shops and public transport last week. That in itself wouldn't be a big deal (except for cancelling a few Christmas get-togethers), but it is a step towards shutting down gyms, restaurants, bars, etc. altogether.
Don't really know what to make of it anymore. It seems completely hopeless to ever stop this, when an almost 80% vaccination rate hasn't done it. I'm afraid we will soon be doing more harm than good with the restrictions, and I don't have any confidence in our government making the right decisions. Spring can't come fast enough.
Don't really know what to make of it anymore. It seems completely hopeless to ever stop this, when an almost 80% vaccination rate hasn't done it. I'm afraid we will soon be doing more harm than good with the restrictions, and I don't have any confidence in our government making the right decisions. Spring can't come fast enough.
I'm going to France for a few days, from 12th - 14th December.
I'm hoping I'm safe from any potential catastrophies in terms of having to stay over there, miss Xmas etc. - but the worry keeps nagging in my head. I've already spent over £200 in additional tests in the last week or two.
It's absolutely horrible waiting this week for something to go wrong, the trip be cancelled, UK-France travel be banned etc - does anyone have any reassuring words?
I'm hoping I'm safe from any potential catastrophies in terms of having to stay over there, miss Xmas etc. - but the worry keeps nagging in my head. I've already spent over £200 in additional tests in the last week or two.
It's absolutely horrible waiting this week for something to go wrong, the trip be cancelled, UK-France travel be banned etc - does anyone have any reassuring words?
I'm going to France for a few days, from 12th - 14th December.
I'm hoping I'm safe from any potential catastrophies in terms of having to stay over there, miss Xmas etc. - but the worry keeps nagging in my head. I've already spent over £200 in additional tests in the last week or two.
It's absolutely horrible waiting this week for something to go wrong, the trip be cancelled, UK-France travel be banned etc - does anyone have any reassuring words?
Stay home in the fetal position.
In all seriousness, though, how do you spend £200 on tests? That's a massive amount! How many tests is that?
It's a reasonable approach and to be honest it's pretty much what I've been doing before major events or meeting up with older or vulnerable family/friends for a while. LFTs (as supplied free in the UK) are a really good resource.
I will throw in an extra suggestion for people looking at taking a cautious approach though. I won't be going out socialising in the week before Christmas and (because my work and home life lets me) I'll be dodging meeting people in their homes and other indoors settings. That may not be relevant or practical for everyone though.
Ha. It was/is a surprise for my girlfriend's birthday so I've had to buy all of mine and hers (pre-flight, -48h before departure & Day 2 return PCR). So 6 tests in total costing about £200.
fecking infuriating considering I'm literally only there 2 nights
but I knew the risks when I bought the trip, a few days before they announced the testing necessity.Our office Christmas party was meant to be the 17th but has been cancelled on the basis that it’s within 10 days of Christmas and the partners would feel like shit if we got a confirmed omicron case which meant the entire office had to isolate for Christmas Day itself, which is entirely reasonable.
Ha. It was/is a surprise for my girlfriend's birthday so I've had to buy all of mine and hers (pre-flight, -48h before departure & Day 2 return PCR). So 6 tests in total costing about £200.
fecking infuriating considering I'm literally only there 2 nights
Damn. I guess I can't complain too much, when testing is still free here. Hope the trip goes through without incident.
Yeah, I wish I could have the same - free tests here unless you’re travelling, then you have to pay yourself. Hopefully it will be ok. I don’t even care if I have to self isolate here to be honest, it will give me peace for a week or two
Not their biggest fan, far from it, but wishing them a speedy recovery.
Mine are cancelled before the new restrictions came in over here. We're working onsite for another company so I would have had two. It seems like it was mostly employees pulling out that did it.
Given that Omicron is more transmissible than Delta, I'd guess that we're going to see a lot of PL clubs being affect by this over the next couple of months. There'll probably a fair few match postponements in the coming weeks.
Just to comment on how the virus and vaccine science heavyweights on twitter (not joking - there are some real experts on there and some of them are willing to simplify it enough to try and explain this stuff) are responding to these first lab results.
The experiment tells us that more people who were previously infected or double vaxxed will get infected with omicron than would get infected with delta - but that 2 doses of vaccine do have some action against infection and that vaccine+infection has a stronger one. Put simply this is what they were expecting to see and better than they feared it might be. It means they know what kind of problem we're up against and they understand what will help.
It doesn't tell us how severe it will be if we do catch it - we need real data from a large number of people including the elderly, and others with additional risk factors to answer that. It does suggest that boosters will do an important job and maybe a crucial one.
Data from another, similar, study.
I know the history of predictions has often been wrong… but should we be worried?
Why I’m concerned, is because of Boris’ lack of concern, it’s very reminiscent of his attitude in Jan-early March 2020.
https://apple.news/ArlwqTUeJSRK5Vf59SZGlfQ
For those that can’t access.. it’s an independent article, saying:
UK could reach 90,000 infections a day by Christmas, experts warn
Health officials in Whitehall are becoming increasingly worried by the emerging data on omicron, as NHS bosses warned that a significant rise in cases could add to current healthcare pressures
Covid cases could hit 90,000 a day by Christmas, experts have warned, as hospital admissions begin to increase even before the more transmissible omicron variant takes hold across Britain.
Scientific government officials say the daily number of positive cases is on course to surpass the highest peak of the pandemic within a matter of weeks, with both the omicron and delta variants circulating alongside one another to fuel a swift wave of infections
Ahead of this expected surge and a feared subsequent rise in admissions, NHS leaders have warned there is already “huge amounts of pressure” on hospitals. The risk of doctors and nurses catching omicron and being forced out of work is also adding to growing “nervousness” in the health service.
It is understood health officials in Whitehall are becoming increasingly worried by the emerging data on omicron, as the UK recorded 45,691 new Covid cases on Tuesday – a 15 per cent increase on last week’s figure.
A total of 437 omicron infections have been detected to date, but experts believe this figure to be closer to 2,000, with cases of the variant suspected to be doubling every day.
Why I’m concerned, is because of Boris’ lack of concern, it’s very reminiscent of his attitude in Jan-early March 2020.
https://apple.news/ArlwqTUeJSRK5Vf59SZGlfQ
For those that can’t access.. it’s an independent article, saying:
UK could reach 90,000 infections a day by Christmas, experts warn
Health officials in Whitehall are becoming increasingly worried by the emerging data on omicron, as NHS bosses warned that a significant rise in cases could add to current healthcare pressures
Covid cases could hit 90,000 a day by Christmas, experts have warned, as hospital admissions begin to increase even before the more transmissible omicron variant takes hold across Britain.
Scientific government officials say the daily number of positive cases is on course to surpass the highest peak of the pandemic within a matter of weeks, with both the omicron and delta variants circulating alongside one another to fuel a swift wave of infections
Ahead of this expected surge and a feared subsequent rise in admissions, NHS leaders have warned there is already “huge amounts of pressure” on hospitals. The risk of doctors and nurses catching omicron and being forced out of work is also adding to growing “nervousness” in the health service.
It is understood health officials in Whitehall are becoming increasingly worried by the emerging data on omicron, as the UK recorded 45,691 new Covid cases on Tuesday – a 15 per cent increase on last week’s figure.
A total of 437 omicron infections have been detected to date, but experts believe this figure to be closer to 2,000, with cases of the variant suspected to be doubling every day.
From what I am reading on the BBC right now he's not going to have a Merry Christmas trying to worm out of the party allegations from last year.
Not kept up to date on that story… simply because I’ve accepted it’s one (no) rule for them and we’re the ones making the sacrifices.
Sounds like you are right anyway. This should be a major shitstorm don't think the papers are going to let go of this one.
With a long incubation period there is very little pressure to reduce severity of disease but also none to increase it. So other factors (including random antigen drift) will likely decide where it ends up.
As long as the virus can be passed on then fatality isn't that important. If a virus infected and killed you very quickly there would be significant selection pressure for it to become less virulent/fatal and any new variant that was still highly infectious but less virulent would likely become the dominant variant. However, when the infectious period is long and fatality occurs after that period then there isn't much selection pressure at all to reduce virulence and other factors are likely to be more important.
I posted this in the Antipodean news thread but worth repeating here.
Antivaxxers lose court case trying to prevent police and health working being mandate to be vaccinated. With costs awarded against them. This pleases me.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12...caICvmgATfwhjbCIYj7YnusfTR17CNSl0yJ3pZAtU9t_0
Antivaxxers lose court case trying to prevent police and health working being mandate to be vaccinated. With costs awarded against them. This pleases me.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12...caICvmgATfwhjbCIYj7YnusfTR17CNSl0yJ3pZAtU9t_0
What do you do (work wise)?
The double number of infections by Christmas/New Year is likely unless we make some major behaviour changes. However it's the unknown - hospitalisations, deaths v boosters - is what everyone is watching for now.
Right now, cases are rising and hospitalisations/deaths are falling (due to boosters) but ICU numbers aren't falling and hospitalisations may be about to rise. The ICU cases are mostly unvaxxed but general hospitalisations are more split.
There's a good chance though that what will really hammer us are infections of hospital staff and carers. Even if those cases are mild for fully vaxxed healthy staff - Omicron looks very easy to pass on, and dodging/reducing isolation times is a risk that nobody will want to take. Until we get desperate.
So hmmm yeah. I think we'll see a lot of Christmas parties etc cancelled and a lot of people hunkering down at home with a plan to have Christmas with family/friends. We'll know a lot more about Omicron over the next ten days.
I get the impression big chunks of populations simply dont have any fear of this disease.