As if on cue:
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
I know I seem to constantly be a Debbie Downer about all your theories but my understanding is that the severity/mortality is driven mainly by the genotype of the host. If your genetics make you vulnerable to severe disease then you get sick and/dead quite quickly. For the virus to set up shop in an immune compromised host for a long time that person must be genetically resistant to severe disease. However, their impaired immune system means they can’t clear the virus as quickly as “normal” people, so they stay mild/moderately sick for a long time.
This means that a variant which evolves in them without making them very sick could kill a different person quite quickly.
Further complicating things is the fact that what makes people most sick is a kind of overactive immune response. Which an immune suppressed patient would be spared.
tl;dr: Probably not but feck knows really!
It didn’t… people died, others gained natural immunity, the virus mutated every year to less deadly forms, although there have been years where it’s been more deadly than the previous year or symptoms have been much stronger.
I think in the late 50s there was a very bad flu season due to a mutation in Asia, then in the late 60s there was the Hong Kong flu which was probably the worse since the Spanish Flu and killed 4m globally, the last very bad mutation was late 00s originating from North America, funnily enough called swine flu and not the USA flu even thou it was H1N1 just like the Spanish Flu, Asian Flu, and Hong Kong Flu..
The flu mutates every year and vaccines are updated every year.
However problematic or not the Omicron variant turns out to be, the latest restrictions regarding face coverings are not likely to have the desired effect.
Most of the big supermarkets have already said that they will not be asking their staff to enforce it.
And same for the biggest bus service First Bus.
Disappointing but understandable.
Most of the big supermarkets have already said that they will not be asking their staff to enforce it.
And same for the biggest bus service First Bus.
Disappointing but understandable.
I went in my local sainsburys yesterday lunchtime, and was pleasantly surprised to see easily 95% of people wearing a mask. None of the signage around the shop had changed - it still said it was personal choice.
I went in my local Aldi a couple of hours ago and that percentage was reversed. I was one of three people in there with a mask, and one of those other two was one of those idiots who wear it under their nose!
Do you live in an afflu… haha I can’t
Great to hear about those Sainsbury's shoppers.
The wearing of face coverings will vary somewhat.
But what I was disappointed at was the speed and publicity given to those supermarkets and First Bus refusal to enforce the latest requirements.
I mean why publicise it. Why not just say nothing.
Course it won't, do you genuinely believe shops are the breeding/incubation ground for covid? It's merely a vanity exercise from the government. If they were serious about having an impact then they would be going full on with social distancing and masks in hospitality if it really was something to be concerned rather than this current approach which has no logic to its decision.
The Pull Out Method is a let down
What I can see with transports services not enforcing it is huge arguments. Imagine if someone whose not wearing a mask decides to sit next to someone who is wearing one? The one wearing the mask who was sitting there first would have every reason to be annoyed.
Interesting, I had both the 1957 and 1968 flu, but not the 2009. Maybe immune to that one after the first two.
It shouldn't be a personal choice. Regarding issues of public health, you have to say "you must" sometimes.
Few people would describe it as that!
Cases are going ballistic in Gauteng. I’ve heard of 9 new cases today of people I know. All vaxxed. For perspective, I probably knew 30 in total during our bad Delta wave.
Having said that, they’re all mild cases - scratchy throat, headaches and body aches.
Having said that, they’re all mild cases - scratchy throat, headaches and body aches.
My local big Asda used to be more or less 100% compliant (and those that didn't were almost all wearing visors). That had tailed off to less than 20% by last week. On Monday (before the rule officially changed) it was already back above 80%.
Yesterday, I was in a big Tesco and I saw no one unmasked. Freak results maybe, but it was encouraging, maybe sometimes it just needs a bit of a kickstart and people can do it. Peer group pressure can be a positive.
Update from the UK on the possible rise of Omicron cases in the last few days. There's a massive caveat when it comes to looking at the curve though - testing of some samples has been deliberately rerouted to PCR test labs who use the test that sees this dropout effect.
A) it didn't and b) it became less of a problem because because many millions died and millions other who supplied go some level of immunity.
are we fecked?
Correct. And of course, the general public understand that as well, which is why compliance will fall away after a short period of time.
Exactly.
I have actually heard a number of times individuals saying that they have been vaccinated so why do they need to wear a face covering.
Omicron either as transmissible as Delta, or less so - expert
I'm glad we have these experts
I'm glad we have these experts
Omicron variant causing increase in reinfections - expert
The new variant is causing more reinfections in South Africa than the Beta and Delta variants did, Professor Anne von Gottberg has warned.
A reinfection is classed as someone who tests positive for COVID at least 90 days after a previous infection.
Professor von Gottberg said that South Africa has high seroprevalance - meaning many people have been infected already - but early data indicates "previous infection does not provide them with protection from infection due to Omicron".
The new variant is causing more reinfections in South Africa than the Beta and Delta variants did, Professor Anne von Gottberg has warned.
A reinfection is classed as someone who tests positive for COVID at least 90 days after a previous infection.
Professor von Gottberg said that South Africa has high seroprevalance - meaning many people have been infected already - but early data indicates "previous infection does not provide them with protection from infection due to Omicron".
Omicron either as transmissible as Delta, or less so - expert
I'm glad we have these experts
So now we know....
Wealthy nations should delay boosters for a month and a half, says WHO
Richer countries should delay their booster roll-outs for a short period of time to allow more vaccines to go to poorer nations, the World Health Organisation's special envoy on COVID-19 has said.
That is never gonna happen!
Richer countries should delay their booster roll-outs for a short period of time to allow more vaccines to go to poorer nations, the World Health Organisation's special envoy on COVID-19 has said.
That is never gonna happen!
There's a desperate rush by people, including some who should know better, to be first with the story. It's like watching transfer gossip.Omicron either as transmissible as Delta, or less so - expert
I'm glad we have these experts
The "less transmissible" thing seems to come from what's become known as anecdata - a couple of examples about individual people stretched as if they are generally true. In this case it's firsthand reports from a few early cases in double vaxxed people who got mild symptoms and didn't pass it on to their vaxxed
households.
We need a lot more cases to know anything. Alternatively, and much better, a lot fewer cases next week would be even more impressive. Unfortunately, based on the last few days in SA (cases and hospitalisations) we're likely to be looking at the lot more cases data version.
https://www.nrk.no/osloogviken/omikron-smitte-i-oslo-etter-julebord-1.15754329
50-60 suspected omicron cases is Oslo, which would be the biggest registered omicron outbreak in the world. Another winter lockdown incoming then
50-60 suspected omicron cases is Oslo, which would be the biggest registered omicron outbreak in the world. Another winter lockdown incoming then
At this stage, it's kinda pointless WHO having these press conferences, as it seems every other comment from an expert or another contradicts each other.
They're all guessing at this point and have very little actual scientific facts to base a full and concise conclusion.
May as well just let politicians give the news, because it's basically the same outcome.
They're all guessing at this point and have very little actual scientific facts to base a full and concise conclusion.
May as well just let politicians give the news, because it's basically the same outcome.
https://www.nrk.no/osloogviken/omikron-smitte-i-oslo-etter-julebord-1.15754329
50-60 suspected omicron cases is Oslo, which would be the biggest registered omicron outbreak in the world. Another winter lockdown incoming then
Hope not, I love watching all the winter sports and would hate that all shutting down again.
Although a lot of people have been infected in SA, a large proportion were infected in wave 1 and 2, which were around July and December last year. So although re-infection may be more likely, it needs to take into account time since last infection (or last vaccine shot).
Omikron confirmed in one of the persons of the 50-60 suspected omikron cases in Norway that @Samid linked to earlier. More expected to be confirmed.
What’s good is the article is saying that most of them have symptoms, but are in good shape.
They are all adults and vaccinated.
edit:This article says none of the 50-60 are seriously ill.
What’s good is the article is saying that most of them have symptoms, but are in good shape.
They are all adults and vaccinated.
edit:This article says none of the 50-60 are seriously ill.
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This virus is never going away, I think we've all accepted that. All we can do is pray that it becomes more and more benign over time and we can start treating it like a cold.
Do you know when the trials for these vaccines officially end?
Which trials are you thinking of? Adult trials are complete except for things like antibody and booster monitoring, and blood tests to look for previously undiagnosed covid infections picked up during the trial. The standard efficacy/safety Pfizer trials are complete in the over 5s and they're now in the rollout/deployment monitoring phase.
Trials in under 5s are underway but I think it will be a while before we see that turned into a released product.
Germany’s new rules make sense to be honest
Think most would agree.
The hard part is at what point do you make the distinction between a Covid pandemic, endemic and then what could justifiably be compared to an extreme cold season.
It will also get to a point where governments and industries benefiting from the pandemic need to opt out/somewhat step aside - which if history has taught us anything is by no means guaranteed.
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Governments benefiting from the pandemic? Pull the other one.
The only industry you could argue is benefitting is the pharmaceutical one. And even then, only two or three companies. The rest of them are being screwed by their main customers (health services) having to divert all their resources to covid. There’s even give and take for the main vaccine providers. Pfizer’s raking in cash from the vaccine while losing cash from other areas. It’s only in the last few months that their share price exceeded what it was at the end of 2018.
Literally everyone would benefit if the pandemic stopped tomorrow.
Governments benefiting from the pandemic? Pull the other one.
The only industry you could argue is benefitting is the pharmaceutical one. And even then, only two or three companies. The rest of them are being screwed by their main customers (health services) having to divert all their resources to covid. There’s even give and take for the main vaccine providers. Pfizer’s raking in cash from the vaccine while losing cash from other areas. It’s only in the last few months that their share price exceeded what it was at the end of 2018.
Literally everyone would benefit if the pandemic stopped tomorrow.
Im not suggesting this is all a conspiracy of course, that’s just stupid but it’s also daft to say that individuals within governments haven’t been benefiting from this. Look at all the dodgy contracts handed out in the UK, they weren’t handed over without reward in the opposite direction.
In addition to that in the US, billionaire wealth grew by 70% during the pandemic.
So while I believe it’s real and I believe in scientists and their science, if we are being completely objective there are definitely motives for individuals in government to use the pandemic to their benefit.
I also think the UK government is using the pandemic to cripple and dismantle the NHS.
Imagine if the UK tried to implement what Austria and Germany have done..
Interesting that some of the more liberal countries and ramping up their rules and becoming quite Draconian.
Interesting that some of the more liberal countries and ramping up their rules and becoming quite Draconian.