It’s mostly a practical decision. There’s a new variant so it’s more important to get the booster out to as many people as possible, and they don’t want to exclude people because of an arbitrary 6-month cut off point. It doesn’t signify anything about the long-term approach to the frequency or volume of boosters. But we can safely say another booster every 3 months is not on the cards.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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It’s mostly a practical decision. There’s a new variant so it’s more important to get the booster out to as many people as possible, and they don’t want to exclude people because of an arbitrary 6-month cut off point. It doesn’t signify anything about the long-term approach to the frequency or volume of boosters. But we can safely say another booster every 3 months is not on the cards.
@jojojo @Pogue Mahone
Thanks for your answers about the Moderna booster. I also did some reading which backs up your points.
On Nov 11 some business-type guy from Moderna said there's no reported myocarditis from boosters (not sure how reliable a seemingly off-hand statement from the company is vs a formal thing from the FDA or CDC, but it's something).
And this paper backs up the point that it's possible that the root cause is 2 doses spaced tightly together - the 2nd dose risk levels are so much higher than first. And the risk drop-off at 25 and again at 30 are pretty massive (Table 2).
I'm turning 30 in a few weeks, so right on the edge of those recommendations
Thanks for your answers about the Moderna booster. I also did some reading which backs up your points.
On Nov 11 some business-type guy from Moderna said there's no reported myocarditis from boosters (not sure how reliable a seemingly off-hand statement from the company is vs a formal thing from the FDA or CDC, but it's something).
And this paper backs up the point that it's possible that the root cause is 2 doses spaced tightly together - the 2nd dose risk levels are so much higher than first. And the risk drop-off at 25 and again at 30 are pretty massive (Table 2).
I'm turning 30 in a few weeks, so right on the edge of those recommendations
https://health-e.org.za/2021/11/29/gauteng-enters-fourth-wave/
‘Groome said most patients being admitted to hospitals are unvaccinated.
“In Tshwane, 13% of hospital admissions are vaccinated people and 87% are unvaccinated people. There is a much higher risk of death among unvaccinated patients who get admitted than vaccinated patients,” she said.’
Unfortunately it doesn’t say of the 13% how many are fully vaccinated which is pretty relevant.
‘Groome said most patients being admitted to hospitals are unvaccinated.
“In Tshwane, 13% of hospital admissions are vaccinated people and 87% are unvaccinated people. There is a much higher risk of death among unvaccinated patients who get admitted than vaccinated patients,” she said.’
Unfortunately it doesn’t say of the 13% how many are fully vaccinated which is pretty relevant.
I would also love to know the ratio of vaccinated to unvaccinated in that region. 87:13 is scarily close to the 75:25 ratio I heard for South Africa as a whole
On a lighter note. This made me chuckle:
In SA you'd expect those kind of stats - as vax rates are low, and perhaps lower still in the young who are less likely to get hospitalised, but who live in the areas with the highest prevalence.
The other big question is around past infection. Some surveys in SA suggest that 80% of people think they've already had covid, but I'm not sure there's been a study confirming that. I suspect those kind of infection rates may exist in some narrow groups/areas, I doubt it's true of the whole population.
I found this thread interesting, probably about as up to date as you can get as well!
All I can find online is they’ve administered 6m doses and the population is 12m…I’ve seen as much as 40% of that may have been J&J. However, in this area the vaccination rate may be higher as it’s in the city. So basically no ideaI would also love to know the ratio of vaccinated to unvaccinated in that region. 87:13 is scarily close to the 75:25 ratio I heard for South Africa as a whole
I guess you're talking about that region, but the vaccine mix is probably similar to the national one.All I can find online is they’ve administered 6m doses and the population is 12m…I’ve seen as much as 40% of that may have been J&J. However, in this area the vaccination rate may be higher as it’s in the city. So basically no idea
Across SA as a whole, about 6m people have had J&J and about 9m people have had Pfizer in SA out of a population of 60m.
All I can find online is they’ve administered 6m doses and the population is 12m…I’ve seen as much as 40% of that may have been J&J. However, in this area the vaccination rate may be higher as it’s in the city. So basically no idea
Slide 12 here: https://sacoronavirus.co.za/latest-vaccine-statistics/
Gauteng seems to be below the national average. (31.6% vs 36% of adult population)
I was looking at the same data he was yesterday. Gauteng had 580 admissions listed for last week. Today that was updated to 647. Seems like other weeks were also revised upward on a sliding scale (sort of similar to daily death data here) so last week might be subject to further upwards revision. Guess that steepens the curve on the second graph slightly.
Edit: Also think "0 days" might be revised backwards in time though.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59473131
So looks like Omicron was in Netherlands earlier than assumed - this variant is already well on its way through Europe IMO.
So looks like Omicron was in Netherlands earlier than assumed - this variant is already well on its way through Europe IMO.
Of course it was. It will already be everywhere, just nobody has been looking for it.
No country has ever successfully kept any Covid variant out.
Sure seems to rip through sports teams more effectively than delta.
its probably behind the spike in Europe over the last few months
Is there a way to check older test for this variant?
I think if it was widespread in most of Europe for more than a few weeks it would have been spotted. Sequencing is usually patchy and slow in most countries but not that far behind. That said, it could easily have started in a country with high case rates but (politically driven?) low reporting transparency or one that does minimal testing or sequencing.
Countries like the UK will start chasing back through old tests though, but they're starting with the last two weeks (because they matter for contact tracing). In the UK, if it was widespread a month ago, we would have seen it - that doesn't mean it wasn't here, just that it wasn't here in large enough amounts to explain any case rate peaks here.
The virus theoreticians who look at every genome example and try to draw infection chains for cases suggest that, based on what they've seen so far, the first omicron case was probably in early October.
It has absolutely nothing to do with Europe's spike. The chance of that is zero.
Boris and crew doing a press conference now. Main announcements are really around boosters - national target is to offer every eligible adult a booster by the end of January. Extra money for pharmacies who are giving vaccines to encourage them to do more hours. Extra money for GPs to help vaccinate more housebound vulnerable people (who are one of the groups that the rollout has been slow in). Vaccine buses are coming back for areas where the vaccination hubs are too difficult to reach.
Ouch. And yes, as regulars in here will guess: I understand why they want to do it. I think it could be a bad idea that won't address the fundamental question of trust in the health services, government and science. Nor does it help people with health issues (physical or psychological) that are affecting their judgment.
I could be wrong of course, maybe the Greek oldies just haven't bothered to get it and this will get them to move on from thinking that it doesn't matter to them, to knowing that it does - I hope so. Maybe they've already tried inducements, education and better access and this is a last resort to be used after a last individualised personal approach - I hope so.
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So i found a place via the Scandinavian supportersclub that solved my problem. Booked in for a test at 07.20 saturday morning with test answers at latest 16.00 same day. My kid is buzzin as he though he would miss his first trip to OT.
We are doomed.
I’d consider myself a fairly moderate person in all this corona nonsense. Wearing a mask, following the guidelines and all that kind of stuff doesn’t bother me. I’m happy to do it.
but at what point do we stop here? What happens if another variant pops up 3-4 months from now, do we just stop the world again?
especially at the minute there is no evidence that this strain is more dangerous. Just that it is more transmissible.
it’s getting to the point where we just have to take our chances with this thing now. The messages from governments are so inconsistent people like me who were happy enough to comply are starting to lose faith rightly or wrongly.
but at what point do we stop here? What happens if another variant pops up 3-4 months from now, do we just stop the world again?
especially at the minute there is no evidence that this strain is more dangerous. Just that it is more transmissible.
it’s getting to the point where we just have to take our chances with this thing now. The messages from governments are so inconsistent people like me who were happy enough to comply are starting to lose faith rightly or wrongly.
Would you not rather we find out if it’s more dangerous before we dismiss it? What if a strain popped up that killed 10% of children that got infected and we took the approach of “let’s wait until we have got the data before we decide to ask people to inconvenience themselves?
Sorry if has been ask but what's going on with testing in the US, why is it so low? Still no change over last week still hovering about the 1.3 to 1.5mil per day same number for the last few months.
We will have to live with it. It's fair to say though that we don't know what living with it means yet. I think the UK has already reached the point where we'd declared ourselves willing to live with Delta.
The only things we were were even attempting to do with Delta was keep tabs on it to try and. avoid it actually killing the NHS (as opposed to being so good that the NHS can get back to doing it's normal job). The boosters matter immensely to that campaign - even with Delta there's a risk of sliding back into lockdown if we fail on the booster program.
A big chunk of the rest of Europe aren't ready for that.
Omicron is the Joker in the pack. The UK have budgeted for vaccines and past infection meaning something. If they don't, and severity is similar or worse than Delta, we'll be filling the hospitals, the ICUs and the cemeteries so fast that we won't get to choose whether to live with it. If you can't get medical care for anything, things will get from fast.
My instincts and my hopes say the vaccine + booster will do enough to keep serious illness down. If that's true, this will probably be the last time we take pre-emptive action on what a mutation might mean. Though I am expecting to hear that next year we'll be using variant modified boosters and we may all need them.
Israel Health Minister earlier said it was looking like vaccines were giving protection and they would release information today - they’ve just announced very early data which I’m assuming is based on SA:
90% protection after two doses within 6 months / booster (I’m assuming this is severe disease/hospitalisation), 30% more transmissible than delta, twice as likely to reinfect than Delta after previous COVID infection - and the kicker - 2.4 times more likely to develop serious symptoms if unvaccinated.
Only article I can find currently is in Hebrew - that’s based on a translation on Reddit! If anyone is able to check the translation:
https://www.mako.co.il/news-lifestyle/2021_q4/Article-0e660b77fe17d71027.htm
90% protection after two doses within 6 months / booster (I’m assuming this is severe disease/hospitalisation), 30% more transmissible than delta, twice as likely to reinfect than Delta after previous COVID infection - and the kicker - 2.4 times more likely to develop serious symptoms if unvaccinated.
Only article I can find currently is in Hebrew - that’s based on a translation on Reddit! If anyone is able to check the translation:
https://www.mako.co.il/news-lifestyle/2021_q4/Article-0e660b77fe17d71027.htm
This is effectively mandatory vaccination, wrong on so many levels.
It really is way too early to be making too much of the data. It depends on case distribution across age groups. It depends on whether these really are Omicron hospitalisations not another burst of Delta.
Just to give an idea of how a calculation like this gets done, and why it comes with massive disclaimers try this thread:
Let's hope some of it's true - for the sake of the vaxxed and for keeping some semblance of normality! Let's hope it isn't actually worse than Delta for the unvaxxed, because that's still a big chunk of the world.
It’s actually even worse than that - according to the article. Fully vaccinated in Israel means 3 doses - so that 90% protection means after 3 doses. I have no clue how they’re calculating that though - the sample size of those in Europe and SA who have both caught Omnicron long enough for serious symptoms to develop and been vaccinated 3 times can’t be anymore than like 3 people…but the fact the entire western world is now obsessing over boosters tells me they must know something so it may stack up:
The information received in Israel about the Omicron - the good and bad news: After Bennett's declaration of a "state of emergency", Israel received preliminary data tonight - both from South Africa and Europe - on the new variant that is causing concern around the world. The data revealed tonight (Tuesday) in the "main edition", shortly after being received in Israel, are preliminary - but indicate that the vaccine is still effective against the newly discovered mutations .
The data were collected in both South Africa and European countries where verifications were found in the new variant. It should be emphasized that these are preliminary data that the whole world is waiting for, and at this point they become the working assumption. According to these data, the effectiveness of the vaccine (for those who received three doses, ie also the booster), decreases only slightly: 90% protection, compared to 95% protection against the Delta strain. These are impressive and somewhat reassuring figures. The effectiveness of the vaccine in preventing serious illness, for those who have been vaccinated three times, is the same as the effectiveness against the Delta strain - the strain that has been the most dominant in Israel so far
But not everything is rosy: the problems start with the risk of recovering being tested. The data show that the risk of recovering from infection is twice as high as in Delta, and the rate of infection is 1.3 times higher than in Delta. This rate of infection is very high: in South Africa there is talk that in 15 days the number of patients has increased 15 times. Although the numbers are low, the rate is problematic and worrying: in Israel there are many Israelis who are not vaccinated.
Another worrying statistic has been revealed regarding the unvaccinated: their risk of becoming seriously ill is 2.4 times that of the original strain of the corona, the one that arrived in Israel nearly two years ago. In "unvaccinated" the reference is also to those vaccinated in two doses who are entitled to a booster and have not yet been vaccinated and therefore their protection is insufficient. Despite this news, the data is a reassuring siren when it comes to protecting vaccinated people from both serious illness and infection
So it's becoming more transmissible AND more deadly for the unvaccinated? This virus just keeps on surprising
And also, unvaccinated in this article refers to those also who have had two doses, rather than the booster
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Almost 3 years of this and it's only getting worse. I'm certain this will be a part of life permanently now. This shit is never going away.
Nearly 2 years but it does feel like 3
Too soon to call. Just not enough yet and some of the stuff that looks like Omicron data may turn out to include Delta and even Alpha. What does seem to be happening is that past infection may not currently be giving as much protection in SA as it did - but that may relate to how long ago they got infected and to things like HIV status - like I say some of the data being cited may not really be about Omicron.
It’s really early data like @jojojo says so hopefully more pathogenic won’t be the case and the vaccine efficacy against severe disease holds up.
At the end of the day even if it is more dangerous for those who are unvaccinated is it right for everyone to rollback into tighter restrictions (discounting face masks that are no real burden) to protect many of those who have refused the offer of vaccination?
It depends. If it started to attack little kids the way it did the old, yep, we'll need restrictions, sometimes even lockdowns to force down case rates while we work out what to do.
If it mostly affects unvaxxed 40 year olds, who thought they were indestructible, there may not be as much sympathy around. Even then though, if it fills up the hospitals, we'll be hard pushed to ignore it.
Even now, in the UK, most hospital admissions are of unvaxxed under 60s. Admission rates in the over 60s are falling as the boosters go out, but boosters are irrelevant if you aren't double vaxxed.
I have little sympathy for the voluntarily unvaccinated but there are children who currently can't be vaccinated, the elderly and those who can't he vaccinated to be considered.
Until the whole world is suitably vaccinated measures to help stop or restrict the spread must stay on the board not matter that they are a minor inconvenience. Major lockdown will likely be rarer in largely vaccinated countries unless we are unlucky with new variants.
Even if we’re happy to let thousands of unvaccinated people die, the problem is they’ll fill up hospital and ICU beds, which will impact on everyone else. Cancellation of elective hip replacements, knee replacements, spinal surgery etc etc
As per the lengthier quote you posted, that’s 2.4 times more likely to cause serious illness than the OG variant. I actually don’t know how much more deadly delta is than original covid but I’m fairly sure it is. So the jump from delta to omicron will be less than the 2.4 they calculated.
Anyhoo. As @jojojo said, large pinches of salt all round.