Oof, 263 deaths in UK today! Ok, shit got real now. 
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Oof, 263 deaths in UK today! Ok, shit got real now.
New measures will be introduced in NL next week, thats the word on the street and I hope it's true
Oof, 263 deaths in UK today! Ok, shit got real now.
Not all purely on one day, the 263 are highlighted in orange. Average deaths look to be dropping on this chart here (obviously not taking into account the lag).
Not all purely on one day, the 263 are highlighted in orange. Average deaths look to be dropping on this chart here (obviously not taking into account the lag).
Tuesday is usually the 'high' day when weekend lag is caught up, no? But recent previous highs have never hit 250+. That centred average line will be curving upwards if the rising case rates are finally translating to deaths.
Very anecdotal, but I slept in the same bed as my girlfriend for 3 days whilst I unknowingly had COVID a couple of weeks ago. She had got her booster exactly 14 days beforehand (she’s a Dr), and she remained resolutely COVID free - confirmed via a PCR and numerous lat flows.
It's weird, I know couples where one has had it and the other never got it. Or the kids got it and neither parent did. Houses of 5-6 people where only 1 got it. This was before most people were jabbed too. It still seems random as hell who actually catches it.
Then I know people who have got it from basically being nowhere near anyone.
Tuesday is usually the 'high' day when weekend lag is caught up, no? But recent previous highs have never hit 250+. That centred average line will be curving upwards if the rising case rates are finally translating to deaths.
Deaths are up by 7% on this time last week, I see your point of the reported daily number being high but I think some perspective is needed in the context of where those deaths are falling. It's not as though all 250+ happened yesterday, when we had reporting of deaths from 7 days ago in those numbers. The weekly average is the metric to look at, and more so hospitalisation being the all important metric.
My dad is in his late 60’s, overweight with multiple health conditions and slept in the same bed as my mum who unknowingly had Covid for about 10 days. He was exactly 15 days post 2nd jab. Turns out mum was getting severe Covid and spent 3 weeks in ICU thereafter. Dad tested negative twice.
The vaccines are incredible, no matter what the idiotic Insta models think.
Tuesday is usually the 'high' day when weekend lag is caught up, no? But recent previous highs have never hit 250+. That centred average line will be curving upwards if the rising case rates are finally translating to deaths.
There are signs that UK case rates are falling - what we don't know yet is whether that's just another bump on the "more or less steady adult case rate" we've had since July, or if it's the start of a real fall. Vaccine rates are about to hit 90% of all 18+, the first 6.5m boosters have been done. About 30% of the population have covid antibodies from past infection.
In some parts of the country it looks like we've hit a kind of herd immunity, and rates in some areas are definitely falling. Other areas look more fragile. Some areas/groups where the boosters aren't going out quickly enough (including some carehomes) look very fragile.
Overall though, if the main statistical models are accurate and we don't change our behaviour to mix/socialise more, and booster and first vaccination doses keep rolling out, then hospitalisations are at their peak, they'll fall in the first half of November and deaths will fall soon after. Will it turn out that way? Too close to call, too many unknowns on the vaccine rollout and particularly on how people's behaviour will change as it gets colder and the party season approaches.
I think hand hygiene is massive, especially in a house where someone has it.
So I had a bloodtest to show I was double vaccinated and I got a reading of 82 and my wife got 390. I had my jabs in Feb and May, hers were in April and June, all AZ.
Does the impact wear off that quick or is a large part of that reflective of my underlying health -liver, lung and kidney- issues?
Does the impact wear off that quick or is a large part of that reflective of my underlying health -liver, lung and kidney- issues?
There’s huge person to person variability, independent of any underlying health issues. So you both could have got identical results even if you had the internal organs of a 20 year old triathlete.
Presuming the results are antibody levels, I wouldn’t worry too much. They can fall away without too much of a reduction in actual protection. If every antibody we produced in response to a vaccine/antigen stayed around forever your blood would eventually turn to sludge.
That’s great doctors have had a booster already. Still waiting in Ireland.
Thanks, I guess mine are wearing out just as cases over here rise to record highs though.Amazingly irresponsible bit of journalism by the Guardian here.
They’re reporting on a new study in the Lancet analysing household transmission of delta variant.
The key findings are as follows:
So. Less likely to catch it from a household member if you’re vaccinated and if you do get infected you clear the infection sooner.
Guess what headline/sub-headline they went with?
They’re reporting on a new study in the Lancet analysing household transmission of delta variant.
The key findings are as follows:
So. Less likely to catch it from a household member if you’re vaccinated and if you do get infected you clear the infection sooner.
Guess what headline/sub-headline they went with?
Jabs do not reduce risk of passing Covid within household, study suggests
Research reveals fully vaccinated people are just as likely to pass virus on to those they share a home with
An official milestone of 5,000,000 deaths due to Covid has been reported. And it is of course highly likely that this figure is much lower than the actual number by a wide margin.
Got my third dose today, about a month later than I was supposed to but better late than never. Apparently this one hurts a lot more compared to the first two. My arm is already all tingly.
That's so bad.
Incidentally, a vaccinated friend of mine got it at work, before he knew he had it he went to the pub with a big load of our pals, went to see his parents and such. Not a single one of them caught it off him, not even his girlfriend who he lives with. The vaccines work!
Got mine yesterday. No reaction whatsoever.
Numbers from the latest ONS (random representative sample across the UK) testing. This data was collected the week prior to 23 Oct, so it's already out of date, but it gives you an idea of what's been happening across the UK. Case numbers in 9-15s running at their highest ever, and (their parents?) the 40-somethings getting pulled along behind them, along with the babysitter age grandparent group. Crucially though, cases are falling in the over 80s, which may mean the boosters were already having an effect a week ago.
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK - Office for National Statistics
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...es/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK - Office for National Statistics
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...es/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights
With teenagers reaching herd-immunity and boosters, your numbers will be considerably lower in a month's time.
One for the geeks. The UK's stats geeks are having a row - basically Public Heath England v everyone else. When they produce the weekly covid surveillance stats for the UK, they include some basic calculations of hospitalisation rates in the vaccinated by age - this is easy because they know how many people have been vaxxed. They also produce figures for the unvaxxed - this is a much tougher problem because we don't know how many people are unvaxxed, because we don't know how many people live in the UK.
Sounds odd? Well, yes, but it's the same in most countries (hence why some countries have reported vax rates above 100% in some age groups). We know "roughly" how many people live here, but when it comes down to the 70+ group for example we think 97% or more have had the jab. That's when roughly doesn't help. An error in the total population in that age group of +/-1% and we have somewhere between 2 and 4% unvaxxed. In other words any calculation of hospitalisation rates for the unvaxxed are massively error prone. It's known as the denominators problem.
The ONS - who run the population survey, and monitor births, deaths etc give one set of numbers. NIMS, which lists people on GPs lists, gives another one - usually a higher one. That relies on up to date GP records, including old GP registrations getting cancelled when people move house or leave the UK, and no typos of people's names, DoB, NHS number etc creep in.
This matters when it comes to reporting those vaxxed v unvaxxed rates:
PHE prefer to use NIMS internally (because NIMS is where they get the vaxxed number from) and that's what they use in their public report. Fair enough? Not really, because it's being used by antivaxxers.
Incidentally, my guess is that NIMS is probably more accurate than ONS in the over 75s and the under 16s because the chances are they're the groups most likely to be correctly registered with GPs. The ONS probably matches the general population better, particularly the working age one. Whichever numbers get used in this kind of chart though, they need massive caveats next to them.
Sounds odd? Well, yes, but it's the same in most countries (hence why some countries have reported vax rates above 100% in some age groups). We know "roughly" how many people live here, but when it comes down to the 70+ group for example we think 97% or more have had the jab. That's when roughly doesn't help. An error in the total population in that age group of +/-1% and we have somewhere between 2 and 4% unvaxxed. In other words any calculation of hospitalisation rates for the unvaxxed are massively error prone. It's known as the denominators problem.
The ONS - who run the population survey, and monitor births, deaths etc give one set of numbers. NIMS, which lists people on GPs lists, gives another one - usually a higher one. That relies on up to date GP records, including old GP registrations getting cancelled when people move house or leave the UK, and no typos of people's names, DoB, NHS number etc creep in.
This matters when it comes to reporting those vaxxed v unvaxxed rates:
PHE prefer to use NIMS internally (because NIMS is where they get the vaxxed number from) and that's what they use in their public report. Fair enough? Not really, because it's being used by antivaxxers.
Incidentally, my guess is that NIMS is probably more accurate than ONS in the over 75s and the under 16s because the chances are they're the groups most likely to be correctly registered with GPs. The ONS probably matches the general population better, particularly the working age one. Whichever numbers get used in this kind of chart though, they need massive caveats next to them.
That's what the people doing the main statistical models for the UK are suggesting. Death rates and hospitalisations should start dropping in the next couple of weeks, unless something (people's behaviour, vaccine efficacy) changes. It'll vary a lot across regions and even within small areas though, so it's going to be a bumpy ride.
Got my booster yesterday and had no reaction at all. Worryingly though a girl I work with who had COVID last year when it was all new and trendy, has got it again and that’s after being vaccinated and she’s had her booster as well. She’s just got mild symptoms so could be much worse without the jabs.
https://www.thelocal.se/20211029/sw...coronavirus-commission-to-present-new-report/
No mention of the timing of Stockholm's ski holidays though, so probably worthless report.
No mention of the timing of Stockholm's ski holidays though, so probably worthless report.
Not worrying, its expected. Mild symptoms is good news.
So why are people 'shouting for' plan B? Even learned posters on here?
Looks like this hasn't been mentioned on the forum yet: clinial trial results suggest that Fluvoxamine (a cheap existing drug) might be very effective at preventing infected people from dying or going to intensive care.
There are some caveats (the study only just came out and was limited to Brazilian adults), but this is looking really promising right now.
Longer article with further links: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02988-4Nature Briefing said:
There are some caveats (the study only just came out and was limited to Brazilian adults), but this is looking really promising right now.
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As long as the patients are gradually weaned off of the drug it's worth trying, I suppose. I'd worry that if it is left up to the patient they'll just stop abruptly and get some nasty side effects.
The UK (in particular England) has taken a gamble and most of the world is watching to see how it goes. In theory, if the gamble comes off, the UK will reach a kind of herd immunity (previous infection and/or vaccination) by around Christmas. That's with adult vaccination of around 90%, kids with maybe as much as 70% prior infection/vax, and the adult unvaxxed adding an extra few percent of immunity by infection. The cost will be several thousand lives.
From that point on we'll view covid as endemic. Not a thing with negligible cases or deaths, but a thing that vaccine boosters and the occasional repeat infection will keep within what modern life can handle.
That's the thing though - what can we handle and what are we willing to live with? It's a moral decision, more than a scientific one. If you don't want to go back to normal life, then you might get to endemic with fewer deaths but it might take years as we wait for higher vaccination levels and better drugs.
A lot of people around Europe (and in the UK) still hope we can get to normal quickly but have fewer deaths. They may be right, but that's where the gamble is. The plan B stuff for England (masks, vaccine passports, work from home advice) haven't kept case rates low in Scotland/Wales. It looks like it needs more restrictions than that to make a difference - some people think that's ok, some don't.
Yeah, I saw that. Looks encouraging. Much more so than any ivermectin data I’ve ever seen. They could be onto something here.
One for the geeks. The UK's stats geeks are having a row - basically Public Heath England v everyone else. When they produce the weekly covid surveillance stats for the UK, they include some basic calculations of hospitalisation rates in the vaccinated by age - this is easy because they know how many people have been vaxxed. They also produce figures for the unvaxxed - this is a much tougher problem because we don't know how many people are unvaxxed, because we don't know how many people live in the UK.
Sounds odd? Well, yes, but it's the same in most countries (hence why some countries have reported vax rates above 100% in some age groups). We know "roughly" how many people live here, but when it comes down to the 70+ group for example we think 97% or more have had the jab. That's when roughly doesn't help. An error in the total population in that age group of +/-1% and we have somewhere between 2 and 4% unvaxxed. In other words any calculation of hospitalisation rates for the unvaxxed are massively error prone. It's known as the denominators problem.
The ONS - who run the population survey, and monitor births, deaths etc give one set of numbers. NIMS, which lists people on GPs lists, gives another one - usually a higher one. That relies on up to date GP records, including old GP registrations getting cancelled when people move house or leave the UK, and no typos of people's names, DoB, NHS number etc creep in.
This matters when it comes to reporting those vaxxed v unvaxxed rates:
PHE prefer to use NIMS internally (because NIMS is where they get the vaxxed number from) and that's what they use in their public report. Fair enough? Not really, because it's being used by antivaxxers.
Incidentally, my guess is that NIMS is probably more accurate than ONS in the over 75s and the under 16s because the chances are they're the groups most likely to be correctly registered with GPs. The ONS probably matches the general population better, particularly the working age one. Whichever numbers get used in this kind of chart though, they need massive caveats next to them.
We had 2 Central.Sydney LGA's lagging enexpectedly in the % vaccinated. It is thought that it is because we are comparing real vax numbers with population figures that include huge numbers of international students and workers who went home.
I get that the UK is pushing on early and I'm not sure I agree with that so early on, but eventually other countries will have to follow within the next year or so. If there is a possibility of either a sterilising vaccine or a drug which is highly effective at reducing mortality rates then it makes sense to wait, but if that doesn't happen then the virus is just being held off and we have to deal with it eventually anyway,
I think the overlap with flu mortality will become quite important in individual countries decisions over the winter.
Yep. Best case, the UK case rates (and hospitalisations/deaths) fall enough before Christmas that when the flu season kicks off the hospitals don't collapse completely.
The best case may not be a great picture, but it is part of the reason some modellers suggest that controls now might not help at all. They might just change the shape of the curve in a way that means we'll be dealing with peak covid cases and peak flu cases at the same time.
From the U.K. it seems people are voluntarily not going out as much or avoiding unnecessarily going out. In past week or so some places that usually have a lot of foot traffic are almost like the week before the first lockdown was announced.
Just for anyone who thinks I've been sounding unreasonably positive about the UK's stats recently - I'm not. I'm just aware that there isn't an easy route through winter, even for countries that think they're doing it right at the moment, and that the UK will have some key lessons for our European neighbours in particular.
Unfortunately lesson number one is that if you're committed to using vaccines and boosters as your primary defence against hospitalisations and deaths, you'd better be quick about getting the boosters done.
The "third dose/boost at 6 month" idea is based on UK antibody and early infection data, and the booster's near instant impact has been seen in Israel. Javid said there are plenty of jabs and plenty of bookings available - but people aren't coming forward quickly enough. However, just to relate a 78 year old family member's experience - he wasn't able to book until a week after his 6 month schedule, the first booking offered was for 2 weeks after that and at a site that basically he can't get to without a car. Looking at that twitter thread, I'm guessing he's not the only one.
Unfortunately lesson number one is that if you're committed to using vaccines and boosters as your primary defence against hospitalisations and deaths, you'd better be quick about getting the boosters done.
The "third dose/boost at 6 month" idea is based on UK antibody and early infection data, and the booster's near instant impact has been seen in Israel. Javid said there are plenty of jabs and plenty of bookings available - but people aren't coming forward quickly enough. However, just to relate a 78 year old family member's experience - he wasn't able to book until a week after his 6 month schedule, the first booking offered was for 2 weeks after that and at a site that basically he can't get to without a car. Looking at that twitter thread, I'm guessing he's not the only one.
Quality balanced post as always.