SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Looks like this hasn't been mentioned on the forum yet: clinial trial results suggest that Fluvoxamine (a cheap existing drug) might be very effective at preventing infected people from dying or going to intensive care.

Longer article with further links: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02988-4

There are some caveats (the study only just came out and was limited to Brazilian adults), but this is looking really promising right now.
Come out addicted instead
 
As long as the patients are gradually weaned off of the drug it's worth trying, I suppose. I'd worry that if it is left up to the patient they'll just stop abruptly and get some nasty side effects.
Come out addicted instead
I have to admit I know nothing about this medication besides what's in the article I quoted. But if it's used only in a hospital setting to prevent the worst outcomes, then I suppose the addiction risk is lower and can be managed by hospital staff?
 
Just a quickie for anyone booking a jab, I'd advise against choosing a time slot late in the day, I had mine at 7:00pm and they closed the doors 5 minutes after I got in because they were running out, so I'd estimate about 60 people would have been turned away to re-book for another time. Not blaming anyone, nothing runs perfectly at the best of times and I'm sure a lot of people in the whole system are working flat out at the moment.
 
Amazingly irresponsible bit of journalism by the Guardian here.

They’re reporting on a new study in the Lancet analysing household transmission of delta variant.

The key findings are as follows:





So. Less likely to catch it from a household member if you’re vaccinated and if you do get infected you clear the infection sooner.

Guess what headline/sub-headline they went with?
Jabs do not reduce risk of passing Covid within household, study suggests
Research reveals fully vaccinated people are just as likely to pass virus on to those they share a home with

It's a negligible difference considering all the messaging about how everyone had to take the vaccine otherwise you'll kill everybody's nan.

Read a preprint that said there is 0 difference in transmissibility for delta between the AZ vaccine and the unvaccinated after 3 months.

Protection against onward transmission waned within 3 months post second vaccination. For Alpha this still left good levels of protection against transmission, but for Delta this eroded much of the protection against onward transmission, particularly for ChAdOx1, which by 3 months post second vaccine had no evidence of difference in transmission compared to that seen in unvaccinated individuals

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.28.21264260v1.full

Certainly makes the justification for vaccine passports look shaky
 
It's a negligible difference considering all the messaging about how everyone had to take the vaccine otherwise you'll kill everybody's nan.

Read a preprint that said there is 0 difference in transmissibility for delta between the AZ vaccine and the unvaccinated after 3 months.



https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.09.28.21264260v1.full

Certainly makes the justification for vaccine passports look shaky

Disagree. It’s not a negligible difference, even at an individual level. And the whole point of a mass vaccination program is about making a difference at a population level. Where even just moving the dial 1% or 2% can save many many lives. So these data fully endorse the need to get vaccinated.

You seem to be misunderstanding/misinterpreting the preprint you shared, by the way. It analyses the possibility of infecting someone else if you have covid. The chances of having covid are - obviously - a lot lower in someone who is vaccinated than someone who is not vaccinated. Likewise catching it on a night out. Hence it makes sense to allow vaccinated people a little more freedom in terms of socialising indoors.

And one last time - for the cheap seats - the vacccines aren’t flawless. They don’t need to be. When you’re dealing with the behaviour of thousands and thousands of people, you just need to tilt the balance a little bit to have fairly profound benefits. It’s amazing this needs to be pointed out seeing as we have so much evidence all around us of life getting back very close to normal without the same healthcare burden we’ve seen in previous waves, pre-vaccine.
 
Interesting thread from the chairman of the committee that represents the NHS hospital trusts on mandatory vaccination of NHS workers. Not surprisingly, they're worried about the impact on staff retention. They also want to emphasise that the unvaxxed staff in general are not the stereotype anti-vaxxers of the US right etc, and that demonising the hesitant or resistant doesn't help.



Compulsory vaccination in the care sector has already compounded staffing problems there. It's not surprising that the NHS bosses are nervous.

I must admit I'm a complete hypocrite on this. I want me and my family to be seen by vaxxed staff. But I also don't want to drive young women out of the NHS or discriminate against black staff and others who've already paid a heavy price for working through the pandemic.
 
Some depressing reading on excess deaths in a number of countries. The big standout, because it's the biggest number of people - Russia's excess deaths across the pandemic are around 750k, their declared covid death toll over the period is less than a third of that.

 
Some depressing reading on excess deaths in a number of countries. The big standout, because it's the biggest number of people - Russia's excess deaths across the pandemic are around 750k, their declared covid death toll over the period is less than a third of that.


Interesting that this isn't being harped on more, by those wishing others to take the issue more seriously.
 
Interesting thread from the chairman of the committee that represents the NHS hospital trusts on mandatory vaccination of NHS workers. Not surprisingly, they're worried about the impact on staff retention. They also want to emphasise that the unvaxxed staff in general are not the stereotype anti-vaxxers of the US right etc, and that demonising the hesitant or resistant doesn't help.



Compulsory vaccination in the care sector has already compounded staffing problems there. It's not surprising that the NHS bosses are nervous.

I must admit I'm a complete hypocrite on this. I want me and my family to be seen by vaxxed staff. But I also don't want to drive young women out of the NHS or discriminate against black staff and others who've already paid a heavy price for working through the pandemic.


If that's the case they will probably accept the vaccine once forced. It's been compulsory here for a long time with no negative effects. I think there were a few hundred people at most.

Aside from the usual benefits of vaccination, being swayed by such false or misleading scientific information calls into question their competence as medical staff.
 
The UK has approved molnupiravir as an early (as soon as diagnosed) covid treatment. It'll be used for vulnerable patients recently diagnosed with covid. It'll be interesting to se how that "vulnerable" definition works and whether it will also be prescribed to vulnerable patients who are household contacts of someone with covid.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59163899
 
Found this interesting article on Newsweek. It certainly challenges the current narrative without any tin-foil-hat-ness.

Please, read all through, don't stop at the title.

Some interesting points in there. Some absolute nonsense too. And the whole premise seems to be based around criticising decisions made before the evidence became available to question those decisions. It’s always easy to be wise with the benefit of hindsight.
 
Some interesting points in there. Some absolute nonsense too. And the whole premise seems to be based around criticising decisions made before the evidence became available to question those decisions. It’s always easy to be wise with the benefit of hindsight.
Well, I would think many didn't necessarily agree with the decisions at the time they were made but those who dared to criticise the decisions with well thought-through points were waved off or dismissed (not to mention those who were ridiculed).
 
Well, I would think many didn't necessarily agree with the decisions at the time they were made but those who dared to criticise the decisions with well thought-through points were waved off or dismissed (not to mention those who were ridiculed).

You’re missing the point. Almost all the decisions were the correct ones at the time they were made. Even if hindsight calls some of them into question.

As for differing opinions they’ve always existed. They still exist now. A lot of experts would disagree with almost everything in that article you linked. It’s only the really dumb opinions that get ridiculed. Unfortunately there’s been a lot of dumb opinions aired on this topic.
 
You’re missing the point. Almost all the decisions were the correct ones at the time they were made. Even if hindsight calls some of them into question.

As for differing opinions they’ve always existed. They still exist now. A lot of experts would disagree with almost everything in that article you linked. It’s only the really dumb opinions that get ridiculed. Unfortunately there’s been a lot of dumb opinions aired on this topic.
You too might be missing the point that some of the disputed decisions are actually present policies, not just past ones. I think it's fair to point out that there has been no admission of previous misguided decisions, especially when people had raised doubts at the time, and to make things worse, current decisions mostly go in direct line with the previous ill-advised takes.
 
Disagree. It’s not a negligible difference, even at an individual level. And the whole point of a mass vaccination program is about making a difference at a population level. Where even just moving the dial 1% or 2% can save many many lives. So these data fully endorse the need to get vaccinated.

You seem to be misunderstanding/misinterpreting the preprint you shared, by the way. It analyses the possibility of infecting someone else if you have covid. The chances of having covid are - obviously - a lot lower in someone who is vaccinated than someone who is not vaccinated. Likewise catching it on a night out. Hence it makes sense to allow vaccinated people a little more freedom in terms of socialising indoors.

And one last time - for the cheap seats - the vacccines aren’t flawless. They don’t need to be. When you’re dealing with the behaviour of thousands and thousands of people, you just need to tilt the balance a little bit to have fairly profound benefits. It’s amazing this needs to be pointed out seeing as we have so much evidence all around us of life getting back very close to normal without the same healthcare burden we’ve seen in previous waves, pre-vaccine.

13% is not a significant difference in transmission - I guarantee if this number was presented before the vaccination program we'd see far fewer people, especially young people who are at extremely low risk, taking the jabs. You only have to look at Waterford, which has the highest rate of vaccination in Ireland with 99.7 per cent of adults over the age of 18 fully vaccinated. The county has gone from having one of the lowest rates of Covid-19 infection in Ireland to one of the highest.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/hea...highest-rate-of-covid-19-infections-1.4707344 - we're seeing other examples all over the world.

It's great these vaccines have shown to work well in reducing symptoms and death in the short-term for those who are vulnerable, but the evidence shows there is very little difference in transmission and viral load between the vaccinated and unvaccinated for the delta variant therefore the draconian vaccine passport systems implemented in places like Lithuania, Australia, and Canada are ridiculous - I don't understand why anyone would want to introduce them here in the UK.

Also, and I'm asking in good faith and genuinely, I'd be interested to know when you think this pandemic will be over? How many bi-yearly boosters do you think it'll take before we're 'back to normal?'
 
13% is not a significant difference in transmission - I guarantee if this number was presented before the vaccination program we'd see far fewer people, especially young people who are at extremely low risk, taking the jabs. You only have to look at Waterford, which has the highest rate of vaccination in Ireland with 99.7 per cent of adults over the age of 18 fully vaccinated. The county has gone from having one of the lowest rates of Covid-19 infection in Ireland to one of the highest.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/hea...highest-rate-of-covid-19-infections-1.4707344 - we're seeing other examples all over the world.

It's great these vaccines have shown to work well in reducing symptoms and death in the short-term for those who are vulnerable, but the evidence shows there is very little difference in transmission and viral load between the vaccinated and unvaccinated for the delta variant therefore the draconian vaccine passport systems implemented in places like Lithuania, Australia, and Canada are ridiculous - I don't understand why anyone would want to introduce them here in the UK.

Also, and I'm asking in good faith and genuinely, I'd be interested to know when you think this pandemic will be over? How many bi-yearly boosters do you think it'll take before we're 'back to normal?'

This pandemic is not going to ever be “over”. The virus is going to be endemic all over the world and from here on in it’s about damage limitation. With vaccines as by far the most useful tool in our armoury.

Never mind looking at counties, look at countries. Look at what’s happening in the Eastern European countries with the lowest vaccine rates and then tell me that ‘draconian’ vaccine passports (or any other system intended to increase vaccine uptake) are a bad idea. Vaccines are saving lives on a massive scale. We obviously need to do everything possible to encourage people to take them.

I’m reasonably hopeful that we won’t need boosters every year. There are other vaccines that give very long term protection when the doses are spaced six months apart and we’re seeing loads of evidence recently that a “booster” dose gives a much better antibody response than either of the first two doses. So it’s definitely possible that a booster after six months could give several years protection (maybe even longer?)
 
Just got over Covid myself. Thankfully I'm young and keep myself fit and healthy, but even still I could feel it on my chest and lungs. I felt alright in myself but had a tight chest on day 5 or 6 of it. There was a slight burning sensation in my chest one night, but that subsided thankfully. It seems to have cleared up now, and I feel fine.

But I caught it off my parents, and they were really rough. My mother in particular was bad, to the point where we thought she may have to go into hospital. They have an oximeter and the numbers were ok, thankfully. We've all been double jabbed, and my mother actually got her booster on the Wednesday and tested positive on the Sunday.

Dread to think how bad it would be without the vaccine.
 
Just got over Covid myself. Thankfully I'm young and keep myself fit and healthy, but even still I could feel it on my chest and lungs. I felt alright in myself but had a tight chest on day 5 or 6 of it. There was a slight burning sensation in my chest one night, but that subsided thankfully. It seems to have cleared up now, and I feel fine.

But I caught it off my parents, and they were really rough. My mother in particular was bad, to the point where we thought she may have to go into hospital. They have an oximeter and the numbers were ok, thankfully. We've all been double jabbed, and my mother actually got her booster on the Wednesday and tested positive on the Sunday.

Dread to think how bad it would be without the vaccine.
Glad you’re all on the mend
 
Some interesting points in there. Some absolute nonsense too. And the whole premise seems to be based around criticising decisions made before the evidence became available to question those decisions. It’s always easy to be wise with the benefit of hindsight.

The utter nonsense stood out (the majority) and the rest was "so what?"
 
Just got over Covid myself. Thankfully I'm young and keep myself fit and healthy, but even still I could feel it on my chest and lungs. I felt alright in myself but had a tight chest on day 5 or 6 of it. There was a slight burning sensation in my chest one night, but that subsided thankfully. It seems to have cleared up now, and I feel fine.

But I caught it off my parents, and they were really rough. My mother in particular was bad, to the point where we thought she may have to go into hospital. They have an oximeter and the numbers were ok, thankfully. We've all been double jabbed, and my mother actually got her booster on the Wednesday and tested positive on the Sunday.

Dread to think how bad it would be without the vaccine.

Glad you are all on the mend and vaccinated.
 
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You too might be missing the point that some of the disputed decisions are actually present policies, not just past ones. I think it's fair to point out that there has been no admission of previous misguided decisions, especially when people had raised doubts at the time, and to make things worse, current decisions mostly go in direct line with the previous ill-advised takes.

Out of interest in your opinion which bits of that article mean a policy change is a good idea?
 
It's great these vaccines have shown to work well in reducing symptoms and death in the short-term for those who are vulnerable, but the evidence shows there is very little difference in transmission and viral load between the vaccinated and unvaccinated for the delta variant therefore the draconian vaccine passport systems implemented in places like Lithuania, Australia, and Canada are ridiculous - I don't understand why anyone would want to introduce them here in the UK.
The passport isn't draconian, it's just a record of your vaccinations. Virtually all of Europe is using the same system. I assume you mean the use of the passport to take part in activities such as going to a restaurant, a concert, a cinema or for work?

Vaccines have meant that in many countries, people have been able to return to a more or less normal life (even in Italy, which was so badly hit before the rest of Europe). It's perfectly reasonable to ask people to demonstrate that they're fully-vaccinated.
 


Impressive results from Pfizer’s oral treatment, following on from recent approval of Merck drug.

I must admit I prefer the sound of this Pfizer one to the Merck drug. The mechanism for its antiviral behaviour just feels less scary!

That's obviously got nothing to do with clinical reality of course, just that first impression thing.

Obvious disclaimer: I know nothing about the subject, other than the basic summary stuff provided by the media. I'm just hoping that someone who understands more about the science of these drugs can offer a bit more.
 
Glad you’re all on the mend

Glad you are all on the mend and vaccinated.

Cheers guys

Yeah, I hate to think how bad it would have been for my parents had they not been vaccinated. Not that you didn't feel for the people who had it really bad before, but when you experience it yourself it really highlights how rough it must have been for people who had it at the beginning when no vaccine was available.
 
Here in NL we are about to reach our highest ever positive tests per day, since covid began. From 1500 pd 6 weeks ago to 12000 today, highest was 12900. I expect a new regional lockdown very soon. Open everything up, what could possibly go wrong?
 
Kids visited England for the weekend, I’m wondering if they are allowed back to school on Monday?
HSE just says that quarantine no longer needed
 
Never mind looking at counties, look at countries. Look at what’s happening in the Eastern European countries with the lowest vaccine rates and then tell me that ‘draconian’ vaccine passports (or any other system intended to increase vaccine uptake) are a bad idea. Vaccines are saving lives on a massive scale. We obviously need to do everything possible to encourage people to take them.

Yes, we can talk about countries. This analysis showed 'At the country-level, there appears to be no discernible relationship between percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases in the last 7 days. In fact, the trend line suggests a marginally positive association such that countries with higher percentage of population fully vaccinated have higher COVID-19 cases per 1 million people. Notably, Israel with over 60% of their population fully vaccinated had the highest COVID-19 cases per 1 million people in the last 7 days. The lack of a meaningful association between percentage population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases is further exemplified, for instance, by comparison of Iceland and Portugal.'

More recently, we see Wales who have a vaccine pass system yet they had more cases than England per capita. Even in this thread, the guy in NL where they have high vaccination rates and vaccine passports yet they are reporting the record cases per day, even prior to vaccine roll outs. And according to this hospital 9 out of 10 of the beds are the vaccinated

Also, saying vaccine passes are simply just a mode of encouragement is incredibly euphemistic when the consequences are people losing their jobs and being medically segregated from society. I could understand if these vaccines were sterilising or if COVID was actually dangerous for most people but it's not. We've seen studies showing that between 1.4% to 78.3% of cases don't reach the symptomatic stage - I was one such case. We also know that natural immunity confers broader and longer lasting immunity than two doses of the Pfizer vaccine. Furthermore, we now know that the vaccines only offer a 13% improvement in transmissibility. The vaccine passports don't make any sense. Give the vaccines to those who need protecting, because the idea of herd immunity with the vaccines is not a possibility.

I’m reasonably hopeful that we won’t need boosters every year. There are other vaccines that give very long term protection when the doses are spaced six months apart and we’re seeing loads of evidence recently that a “booster” dose gives a much better antibody response than either of the first two doses. So it’s definitely possible that a booster after six months could give several years protection (maybe even longer?)

I hope you're right, but I suspect you're not. Israel are on their 2nd booster already.

The passport isn't draconian, it's just a record of your vaccinations. Virtually all of Europe is using the same system. I assume you mean the use of the passport to take part in activities such as going to a restaurant, a concert, a cinema or for work?

Vaccines have meant that in many countries, people have been able to return to a more or less normal life (even in Italy, which was so badly hit before the rest of Europe). It's perfectly reasonable to ask people to demonstrate that they're fully-vaccinated.

England and the Scandinavian countries don't have vaccine passports (by this I do mean a pass to use restaurants, gyms etc) and things are also 'back to normal' except people aren't losing their livelihoods and aren't medically segregated. Can you provide any studies or evidence that show that vaccine passports work? Because I've listed a whole load of sources above that show they don't. I'm someone who trains and competes in a highly athletic sport and it's one of my greatest passions. I need to be in prime condition to compete but as we've seen there is a risk of pericarditis/myocarditis with these vaccines, especially in the young and healthy hence Finland, Sweden and Denmark pausing Moderna in under 30s - there are several accounts of athletes having bad reactions to the vaccine and having to stop their season and I don't want to be one of them. COVID attacks the old, the vulnerable and the unhealthy while adverse reactions can strike anyone - it's not worth the risk for me as someone who has had COVID and didn't even realise until my test came back positive - I have no risk from infection but I do have a risk (albeit small) from vaccination. The fact some people think banishing people like me from society isn't draconian is genuinely disappointing, especially with all the new data we have coming out showing how these vaccines only stop transmission by 13%.
 
Yes, we can talk about countries. This analysis showed 'At the country-level, there appears to be no discernible relationship between percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases in the last 7 days. In fact, the trend line suggests a marginally positive association such that countries with higher percentage of population fully vaccinated have higher COVID-19 cases per 1 million people. Notably, Israel with over 60% of their population fully vaccinated had the highest COVID-19 cases per 1 million people in the last 7 days. The lack of a meaningful association between percentage population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases is further exemplified, for instance, by comparison of Iceland and Portugal.'

More recently, we see Wales who have a vaccine pass system yet they had more cases than England per capita. Even in this thread, the guy in NL where they have high vaccination rates and vaccine passports yet they are reporting the record cases per day, even prior to vaccine roll outs. And according to this hospital 9 out of 10 of the beds are the vaccinated

Also, saying vaccine passes are simply just a mode of encouragement is incredibly euphemistic when the consequences are people losing their jobs and being medically segregated from society. I could understand if these vaccines were sterilising or if COVID was actually dangerous for most people but it's not. We've seen studies showing that between 1.4% to 78.3% of cases don't reach the symptomatic stage - I was one such case. We also know that natural immunity confers broader and longer lasting immunity than two doses of the Pfizer vaccine. Furthermore, we now know that the vaccines only offer a 13% improvement in transmissibility. The vaccine passports don't make any sense. Give the vaccines to those who need protecting, because the idea of herd immunity with the vaccines is not a possibility.



I hope you're right, but I suspect you're not. Israel are on their 2nd booster already.



England and the Scandinavian countries don't have vaccine passports (by this I do mean a pass to use restaurants, gyms etc) and things are also 'back to normal' except people aren't losing their livelihoods and aren't medically segregated. Can you provide any studies or evidence that show that vaccine passports work? Because I've listed a whole load of sources above that show they don't. I'm someone who trains and competes in a highly athletic sport and it's one of my greatest passions. I need to be in prime condition to compete but as we've seen there is a risk of pericarditis/myocarditis with these vaccines, especially in the young and healthy hence Finland, Sweden and Denmark pausing Moderna in under 30s - there are several accounts of athletes having bad reactions to the vaccine and having to stop their season and I don't want to be one of them. COVID attacks the old, the vulnerable and the unhealthy while adverse reactions can strike anyone - it's not worth the risk for me as someone who has had COVID and didn't even realise until my test came back positive - I have no risk from infection but I do have a risk (albeit small) from vaccination. The fact some people think banishing people like me from society isn't draconian is genuinely disappointing, especially with all the new data we have coming out showing how these vaccines only stop transmission by 13%.

I assume you're being disingenuous but maybe you really don't know. Just in case it's the latter and for anyone confused by what you've said let's have a look at a couple of those reports.

On vaccination % by country v cases stats. First lets go for the obvious. Policies on testing vary massively between countries - the UK tests all its secondary age kids plus lots of other groups routinely every week. Some countries only test for diagnostic purposes, once someone is seriously ill enough to need medical attention. In many areas the people least likely to come forward for testing are the same group that are least likely to get vaccinated. Now add in the fact that for vaccinated countries - one of the big gains has been to reopen - and cases v vaccine takeup between countries really tells you very little. It's useful for more detailed analysis of things like vaccine waning but only if you understand the exact nature of the stats.

More generally, of course vaccines reduce transmission. Even if you take the worse case stats from the UK and look at groups where vaccine efficacy is waning you still see at least a 50% reduction in cases between the vaxxed and unvaxxed in comparable cohorts. You also see a reduction in onward transmission - not in initial viral load that some sites talk about (broadly the same vaxxed/unvaxxed) but in the number of days they remain infectious for.

You're correct to believe that the biggest advantage though is in reducing hospitalisations of the vulnerable where vulnerable includes a lot of working age adults. For most people who don't live in social isolation, the vulnerable are all around you and don't necessarily conform to the standard model of 80+ and frail.

I'm someone who trains and competes in a highly athletic sport and it's one of my greatest passions. I need to be in prime condition to compete but as we've seen there is a risk of pericarditis/myocarditis with these vaccines, especially in the young and healthy hence Finland, Sweden and Denmark pausing Moderna in under 30s - there are several accounts of athletes having bad reactions to the vaccine and having to stop their season and I don't want to be one of them. COVID attacks the old, the vulnerable and the unhealthy while adverse reactions can strike anyone - it's not worth the risk for me as someone who has had COVID and didn't even realise until my test came back positive - I have no risk from infection but I do have a risk (albeit small) from vaccination. The fact some people think banishing people like me from society isn't draconian is genuinely disappointing, especially with all the new data we have coming out showing how these vaccines only stop transmission by 13%.

That just isn't true. Many people don't know they're vulnerable until they find it out the hard way. Others like Paul Pogba, Allan Saint-Maximin didn't know they were vulnerable until they took weeks to recover from it, Karl Darlow probably reckoned he was safe until he was hospitalised with it. Or maybe you'd prefer the stories from some US based athletes.

Or you could try reading up on the myocarditis and covid studies in young men, including those cautioning athletes about the hidden risks as they return to training. https://www.jwatch.org/na53704/2021/06/04/covid-19-myocarditis-athletes

Of course regulators internationally are constantly looking at vaccine adverse reactions. It's their job. Sometimes that leads to new advice like the advice in some countries (with low covid case incidence and plenty of Pfizer as an alternative) not to use Moderna.

I'm not going to tell anyone their personal odds of being seriously affected by covid or their odds of being affected badly by the vaccine. It's a statistical question. The odds for almost everyone (main exception: people with allergic responses to the vaccine components) are that they as individuals are safer with the vaccine than without.

As an aside, personally I'm not a fan of vaccine passports etc as a long term fix and I think we're already at the point in some countries where they might do more harm in terms of public confidence and vaccine takeup than good, and compound some institutional discrimination in the process. But that's got nothing to do with my belief that we're all a lot safer in highly vaccinated communities and that mass vaccination is the safest (lowest loss of life, lowest longterm health impacts, lowest hospitalisation levels) route to reopening and normal life.
 
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Yes, we can talk about countries. This analysis showed 'At the country-level, there appears to be no discernible relationship between percentage of population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases in the last 7 days. In fact, the trend line suggests a marginally positive association such that countries with higher percentage of population fully vaccinated have higher COVID-19 cases per 1 million people. Notably, Israel with over 60% of their population fully vaccinated had the highest COVID-19 cases per 1 million people in the last 7 days. The lack of a meaningful association between percentage population fully vaccinated and new COVID-19 cases is further exemplified, for instance, by comparison of Iceland and Portugal.'

More recently, we see Wales who have a vaccine pass system yet they had more cases than England per capita. Even in this thread, the guy in NL where they have high vaccination rates and vaccine passports yet they are reporting the record cases per day, even prior to vaccine roll outs. And according to this hospital 9 out of 10 of the beds are the vaccinated

Also, saying vaccine passes are simply just a mode of encouragement is incredibly euphemistic when the consequences are people losing their jobs and being medically segregated from society. I could understand if these vaccines were sterilising or if COVID was actually dangerous for most people but it's not. We've seen studies showing that between 1.4% to 78.3% of cases don't reach the symptomatic stage - I was one such case. We also know that natural immunity confers broader and longer lasting immunity than two doses of the Pfizer vaccine. Furthermore, we now know that the vaccines only offer a 13% improvement in transmissibility. The vaccine passports don't make any sense. Give the vaccines to those who need protecting, because the idea of herd immunity with the vaccines is not a possibility.



I hope you're right, but I suspect you're not. Israel are on their 2nd booster already.



England and the Scandinavian countries don't have vaccine passports (by this I do mean a pass to use restaurants, gyms etc) and things are also 'back to normal' except people aren't losing their livelihoods and aren't medically segregated. Can you provide any studies or evidence that show that vaccine passports work? Because I've listed a whole load of sources above that show they don't. I'm someone who trains and competes in a highly athletic sport and it's one of my greatest passions. I need to be in prime condition to compete but as we've seen there is a risk of pericarditis/myocarditis with these vaccines, especially in the young and healthy hence Finland, Sweden and Denmark pausing Moderna in under 30s - there are several accounts of athletes having bad reactions to the vaccine and having to stop their season and I don't want to be one of them. COVID attacks the old, the vulnerable and the unhealthy while adverse reactions can strike anyone - it's not worth the risk for me as someone who has had COVID and didn't even realise until my test came back positive - I have no risk from infection but I do have a risk (albeit small) from vaccination. The fact some people think banishing people like me from society isn't draconian is genuinely disappointing, especially with all the new data we have coming out showing how these vaccines only stop transmission by 13%.

Can’t be arsed unpicking all of that (although I disagree with a lot of it) but want to correct two obvious factual inaccuracies. First of all, Israel doesn’t have the highest cases over the last 7 days. That’s nonsense. Their cases have come right down after, guess what, more vaccinations. And this wasn’t a second booster. It was the first.
 
If anyone needs PCR/Antigen tests for travel do not use Boots pharmacy. As I was coming from Spain to N.Ireland I ordered a day 2 antigen test from them thinking they're a reputable company. More fool me. Flew into Dublin yesterday and traveled up north the same day. Took the test today with the result a very clear negative. Scanned the results off to them only to be told the results were inconclusive so I now have to self isolate (Am I feck) and pay for another test and they'll refund me the money (Yeah right)

Any other members here have similar experiences or advice because I'm at a loss on what to do?