I think boosters are a bit of a plot twist. If they ramp up efficacy to a level which will see cases squashed to a very low level (as well as enhanced protection for elderly/vulnerable) then that’s a rationale for buying more time with mitigation. Early data out of Israel about efficacy of boosters is impressive.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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I think boosters are a bit of a plot twist. If they ramp up efficacy to a level which will see cases squashed to a very low level (as well as enhanced protection for elderly/vulnerable) then that’s a rationale for buying more time with mitigation. Early data out of Israel about efficacy of boosters is impressive.
Yep, Javid and that mob have been going on about the importance of getting the normal health services going again, and scoring cheap points by moaning about GPs not seeing more patients in person. That's despite the number of GPs being reduced in the past few years and continuing to fall. And despite an actual rise in GP consultations (including phone/video) over the past year.
I think they'll quietly drop the rhetoric for a couple of weeks - go on about national emergencies (aka back to bare bones GP services and more volunteers) and restart the big vaccination hubs full-time.
I suspect the main role for masks/working from home etc will be if they need them as part of the, "it's serious," messaging. I really doubt they'll order any businesses to close/bring back social distancing, they might go for vaccine passports but I suspect it will be more about the appearance of action than reality.
As you said, first sentence is a lie, US has more, as do Russia, they just lie about it. Not to mention how silly it is to use absolute numbers and not proportionate to population. Second sentence is also a lie, as there is plenty of protection through infection (and first dose).
Comparing to China is moronic for obvious reasons.
Actually just noticed. He’s sorted by daily new cases. So he’s correct to say Uk highest in world. Also explains countries selected. They’re in order of daily case numbers. Obviously big variation in accuracy of these figures but still…
Good point re cases per capita fairer comparison. Uk pretty terrible on this metric too (deaths per capita also very bad) but not absolute worst.
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Where is the Uk at with boosters anyway? We’ve been boosting 80+ for a while now (think nearly all done?) and got go ahead for 60+ as of yesterday.
This is a more time critical issue in Uk than rest of Europe as you got your first round of jabs out so much earlier.
Well, as if by magic
"Health Secretary Sajid Javid will hold a press conference this afternoon.
He is due to speak at 17:00 BST and is expected to focus on booster vaccinations and the work of the government's antivirals taskforce."
Broadly though the crunch is that vaccine rollout was fast, booster rollout isn't as fast:
They're going through the ambulant 75+ (at least those with family/friends as drivers) group fast but they've got big issues due to GPs having basically had to step back from the process. Mundane things, like free taxis to vaccine centres etc might help, but reactivating the GP/nurse teams who helped the carehomes and the mostly housebound etc last time is needed as well. There's no doubt that resources are thinner this time and it's not as easy for some of the key risk groups to take up the offer.
He isn't correct. US has more. Worldometer does US reporting state by state. He has picked a moment in time where only few states have reported their numbers on that day. Also day-to-day fluctuation is meaningless and 7-day average should be used.
I am not even angry that you thought I would get something so simple wrong. Just disappointed.
Can Covid affect your ears/hearing? I'm vaccinated and I was sick about a week ago, lasted a day or so and I feel fine now but ever since I've had slight discomfort in my right ear and muffled hearing .
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Well, as if by magic
"Health Secretary Sajid Javid will hold a press conference this afternoon.
He is due to speak at 17:00 BST and is expected to focus on booster vaccinations and the work of the government's antivirals taskforce."
Broadly though the crunch is that vaccine rollout was fast, booster rollout isn't as fast:
They're going through the ambulant 75+ (at least those with family/friends as drivers) group fast but they've got big issues due to GPs having basically had to step back from the process. Mundane things, like free taxis to vaccine centres etc might help, but reactivating the GP/nurse teams who helped the carehomes and the mostly housebound etc last time is needed as well. There's no doubt that resources are thinner this time and it's not as easy for some of the key risk groups to take up the offer.
Interesting. Thanks.
Plans in Ireland as follows:
Looks like at least two week delay between giving ok and actually getting needles into arms. Although if a proportion of them are still within 6 months of second dose that does make this a little less urgent. Be nice to get all >60s done before mid-winter though.
Maybe a bad head cold or ear infection? Best to get it checked outCan Covid affect your ears/hearing? I'm vaccinated and I was sick about a week ago, lasted a day or so and I feel fine now but ever since I've had slight discomfort in my right ear and muffled hearing
Hmmm I think my vaccination was May so by counting 6 months will be up next month. May have to so some hiding in the house again til booster time whenever that may be
On the plus I’m getting my flu jab tomorrow
On the plus I’m getting my flu jab tomorrow
Did you get bumped up the queue originally because of health issues? They’re already boosting immune compromised so your GP might be able to sort you out.
I don’t think so, or if I did it wasn’t by long. The gp rang me the day after I’d been vaxxed
Are we heading for another lockdown?
Why have they given up on that belief though? The public is by and large following the mixed messaging from the government. The rest of the world is still attempting to keep the virus at bay as much as possible, it is only the UK that has diverged from common opinion at so many steps along the way of this pandemic. British exceptionalism? Or a knowledge that the economy needs to be the priority. All this business as usual talk from Boris Johnson suggests the priority has always been the economy.
For anyone wondering what's happening to the U16s who are currently experiencing the bulk of the infections in England:
Not the whole story of course, as long covid can also have a massive impact on young lives, but it is part of the picture of why JCVI were so reticent about recommending vaccinations for U16s. It also helps explain why the UK authorities more or less ignore half the cases being reported each day - except to tell the infected not to visit granny.
As to why the hospitalisations aren't rising and falling with case rates, some of that may be down to vaccination of the clinically vulnerable under 18s. Beyond that, a bit of a statistical mystery - but at least a mystery in the broadly good news direction.
Not the whole story of course, as long covid can also have a massive impact on young lives, but it is part of the picture of why JCVI were so reticent about recommending vaccinations for U16s. It also helps explain why the UK authorities more or less ignore half the cases being reported each day - except to tell the infected not to visit granny.
As to why the hospitalisations aren't rising and falling with case rates, some of that may be down to vaccination of the clinically vulnerable under 18s. Beyond that, a bit of a statistical mystery - but at least a mystery in the broadly good news direction.
I don’t think that’s true. This is recent - and unexpected - data so couldn’t possibly have influenced the JCVI decision.
Haven’t they started vaccinating 12-15 yo’s already? Isn’t that the most obvious factor in what we’re seeing here? (some kids vaccinated now vs zero kids vaccinated in July)
The JCVI gave its ruling on clinically vulnerable 12+ back in mid-July - so most of them were vaccinated in early August. That ruling was based on hospitalisations in previous waves.
When they did their assessment on the rest of the 12-16s they said they were only looking at covid hospitalisations in the "no pre-existing conditions" group v vaccine myocarditis risk. They excluded the vulnerable from the hospitalisation from covid stat as they'd already been advised to get the vaccine and most of them had had it.
They have started vaccinating U16s more generally now, but only since mid-September and not that many have had it - certainly not enough to explain the flat line. If it's not mostly about successful targeting of the most vulnerable groups, it really is a mystery.
Wasn't feeling well today had a sore throat but couldn't think of anyway it could be COVID as I try to be super careful being diabetic as well.
Then I got pinged for the first time ever so booking for a test now.
Hopefully I don't have it but it does seem to be kicking off again as so many people seem to be treating it as a joke
Then I got pinged for the first time ever so booking for a test now.
Hopefully I don't have it but it does seem to be kicking off again as so many people seem to be treating it as a joke
Ah. Ok. I see what you mean. It certainly makes these data less unexpected. If all clinically vulnerable (and proportion of the rest) vaccinated then it stands to reason that overall hospitalisation rates will be considerably lower than in July. They would be lower still if better vaccine coverage by now.
Possible re-infection (following an infection last year or over the winter) may be contributing as well, particularly in historic high case rate areas. I'm assuming there that past infection offers some protection from more serious illness in this age group.
There's also another potential contribution:
On average that "least deprived" group also have better health outcomes generally, and fewer comorbidities etc so maybe less likely to get covid complications.
Edited to say: I definitely did not post the wrong tweet in this thread. Pogue just imagined that
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Cases up 17% in a week, deaths up 21.1%, hospitalisations up 11%.
We all remember when that POS Johnson stood in the HOUSE OF COMMONS and lied, saying they'd severed the link between cases, deaths and hospitalisations, right?
We all remember when that POS Johnson stood in the HOUSE OF COMMONS and lied, saying they'd severed the link between cases, deaths and hospitalisations, right?
Oops.
Maybe try this one instead:
I wonder why it’s so much higher in least deprived? Lack of testing in most deprived?
It's been the other way round for most of the pandemic so it's almost certainly about lower levels of past infection in the least deprived areas.
Judging from the graphs and all the data its is severely weakened there's a huge amount you can pull the fool up on but that's one of the few things which is factually right.
We will never achieve a completely severed link some people are just going to succumb to this virus no matter what we do, at what number or amount of deaths do we accept as a society is the question that no one wants to answer (neither do i)
Gotcha. I guess this is what endemic covid looks like. For children anyway. Hospitalisation rates low to begin with, even lower after prior infection. For them it’s not even “bad flu”. It’s more benign than that. Just a pity that there’s a heavy collateral damage amongst adults while the kids reach an equilibrium with the virus.
There's an interesting primer on calculating what endemic might mean here - worth noting though that he's talking about "infections" not positive tests (not every infection will get caught by testing, with the proportion actually identified depending on the country and the type of people affected). His "20k" for UK might look like 10 to 15k on test with current policies here, but might look even smaller if we really do see hospitalisations/deaths fall and we start to test as a diagnostic only (like flu).
That was rubbish then and still rubbish now.
The pandemic was brought under reasonable control in the middle of the summer, but is again completely out of control.
I can see no logic at all in not making the wearing of a face covering inside public spaces mandatory.
Ask yourself a simple question. Would you go into a Doctor Surgery or Hospital not wearing a face covering?
If no, why not inside all enclosed public places?
Good luck
My dad got it at the weekend. Double-jabbed and said he felt horrendous on Sunday but much better today. I was a bit miffed to only find out this afternoon, mostly out of concern.
Edit - The virus, not the vaccine
Edit - The virus, not the vaccine
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Why?
Well for one because my mum text me saying he had Covid and so I then spent a few hours worrying about it until he text back to say he felt bad at the weekend and was better today.
She made it sound like he was in a bad way...
Very cool. Although obviously full of guesstimates. Once every 9 years and sick for 2.5 days. I’ll take that. I’d love to know what the equivalent stats are for flu.
Ahhh, gotcha. It read like you were miffed that he got vaccinated and didn't tell you.
Ah you're right it does. Sorry about the confusion
Boris not telling the truth? Who would have guessed?
The clue is when he opens his mouth to speak. And after a few seconds, his mouth becomes disconnected from his brain. And from reality.
But people seem to love that. So why change a winning formula.
Edit.
He is after all just an actor on a stage. Playing a part.
That is the state of politics today.