SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Pogue Mahone said:
Very cool. Although obviously full of guesstimates. Once every 9 years and sick for 2.5 days. I’ll take that. I’d love to know what the equivalent stats are for flu.
Click to expand...

So if that is based on 20000 infections per day and eventually 7000 deaths per year then from further down the link,


"The CDC produces half-decent estimates for the US. Dividing them by 5 for the UK offers a rough estimate for the UK yearly flu death toll of ~2,400-12,200 depending on year."

So we lose more people to flu in a bad year and less in a good year once this becomes endemic and normalized.
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
So if that is based on 20000 infections per day and eventually 7000 deaths per year then from further down the link,


"The CDC produces half-decent estimates for the US. Dividing them by 5 for the UK offers a rough estimate for the UK yearly flu death toll of ~2,400-12,200 depending on year."

So we lose more people to flu in a bad year and less in a good year once this becomes endemic and normalized.
Click to expand...

Yeah, that’s the deaths data. I was mainly curious if the “once every nine years” thing applied to flu. I’m fairly sure I’ve only had flu about once in the last 20 years.
 
I get what you mean now.

Its probably very similar but you can't directly read across from deaths, my mistake.
 
sullydnl said:
Click to expand...


Stuff like this is very encouraging. The booster dose isn’t just about trying to boost waning immunity back up to where it was before. It seems to increase to a level way above anything previously achieved.

This always comes with the usual caveats about antibody levels being only a crude proxy for actual immunity but I’m seeing more and more data that antibody levels are actually very closely correlated with vaccine efficacy.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Stuff like this is very encouraging. The booster dose isn’t just about trying to boost waning immunity back up to where it was before. It seems to increase to a level way above anything previously achieved.

This always comes with the usual caveats about antibody levels being only a crude proxy for actual immunity but I’m seeing more and more data that antibody levels are actually very closely correlated with vaccine efficacy.
Click to expand...
It raises the question again of whether this is really a third dose or a booster.

As for what antibody levels mean, the studies so far certainly suggest circulating antibodies have a big role to play in stopping exposure turning into PCR detectable infection. Which if true, would be a huge deal over the next few months.

Whether, outside pandemic conditions, that's relevant for the bulk of the population I guess is the great unknown. As long as the rest of the immune system is primed to make antibodies and is going to do the job against serious illness, maybe the vaccines will have done enough. It's going to take some pretty serious trialling/monitoring over the next year or so. Hopefully it'll trigger further growth in vaccine manufacturing, not just give the rich countries an excuse to build bigger stockpiles.
 
Covid: Get your booster jab, says Boris Johnson, as cases rise

That should do it.
 
Jericholyte2 said:
52k cases today, another world beating threshold passed!

RULE BRITANNIA!!!
Click to expand...

52k cases today but a ridiculously low 115 ish deaths. Isn't that really encouraging? What am I missing? Are the hospitalisation figures becoming unmanageable?
 
mitChley said:
Absolutely infuriating. A girl at work came in Monday with a chest infection, her line manager sent her home. She's asked to come in today again "Do you still have a chest infection" "Yes" "No then"
Click to expand...
There are people I work with (remotely, thank feck) who are working through Covid. Them and their whole families are full of it, but rather than take a few days off, they are 'soldiering on' coughing their way through the kinds of meetings that nobody in the world would deem in any way essential. Everyone is telling them they don't need to be there. What's wrong with people!?
 
Dumbstar said:
52k cases today but a ridiculously low 115 ish deaths. Isn't that really encouraging? What am I missing? Are the hospitalisation figures becoming unmanageable?
Click to expand...

Hospitalisations are regularly at close to 1k per day with reports that, in general, NHS hospitals are at 98.5% capacity, and the ‘tough winter’ hasn’t even started yet. So I’d imagine that’s something to be concerned about.
 
Dumbstar said:
52k cases today but a ridiculously low 115 ish deaths. Isn't that really encouraging? What am I missing? Are the hospitalisation figures becoming unmanageable?
Click to expand...
The hospitalisation numbers are manageable but have basically removed all the opportunities to catch up on elective surgery etc. Staff redeployment has basically closed all the non-urgent care stuff from physio to mental health.

They're also putting a lot of stress on intensive care staff, and some of the internal medicine specialties. Asking people not to take holidays, or to do extra overtime, for a few months is one thing - to keep asking for it 18 months later and with seemingly no end in sight is a different kind of problem. The emotional and physical strain is showing. A&E departments and the ambulance service are having to deal with more work than they should and covid wards are heavy on staff and space. Hospitals are struggling to discharge patients because things like care plans can't be created and residential and community care don't want potentially infectious people being transferred to them, even if they don't need further hospital care.

That said, the statistical models said this was coming. In fact the main ones suggested that hospitalisations could be twice as high by now. Those models generally showed higher but narrower peaks than we're experiencing. The total numbers, deaths/hospitalisations, are as predicted but they're happening as a near flat line. We have indeed flattened the curve but at a level that's been continuously hard on staff for months.

You're right in general terms though. The case rates are as expected, the death rates are not racing away, hospitalisations are high but less than a quarter of the previous peak. Sustainable? No, according to the front line staff handling it or the people who are being kept waiting for medical attention. Yes, according to raw bed counts.

At any rate Javid was right about one thing. We are utterly dependant on the vaccines keeping working, the rollout continuing and the boosters doing what we hope. The booking system website updated last night to stop telling the 6 month+ group to wait until their GP calls and to allow them to book boosters directly, so maybe things will start to speed up.

TLDR - case rates are high but don't take them as the key indicator, they won't fall much until enough under 18s have been vaxxed or been infected. Deaths and hospitalisations are both in line with the most optimistic models the government is using, and may fall quite quickly if the booster program works.
 
Rhyme Animal said:
Is there likely to be another lockdown in U.K?

If so, when? Hoe much worse will it have to get before they pull the trigger on it?
Click to expand...

20k in hospital? But there's next to no chance of that happening, unless the vaccine stops working.

More likely are a push back on basic things. Masks on public transport and in shops etc. Return to WfH if you can. More push on contact tracing - though probably encouraging daily LFTs if you've been in contact rather than self isolation.

Lots of government ministers will start talking about the importance of staying home and getting tested if you've got symptoms - but probably nothing practical like better sickpay. Lots of pious lectures in general, with government ministers stalling for time and pretending to be doing something.

Meanwhile, anything that they can do to speed up boosters - perhaps with bigger incentives for local pharmacies to get involved. Provision so 12-15s can use walk-in centres. Vaccine busses in areas where the booster or the general rollout is going slow.
 
jojojo said:
20k in hospital? But there's next to no chance of that happening, unless the vaccine stops working.

More likely are a push back on basic things. Masks on public transport and in shops etc. Return to WfH if you can. More push on contact tracing - though probably encouraging daily LFTs if you've been in contact rather than self isolation.

Lots of government ministers will start talking about the importance of staying home and getting tested if you've got symptoms - but probably nothing practical like better sickpay. Lots of pious lectures in general, with government ministers stalling for time and pretending to be doing something.

Meanwhile, anything that they can do to speed up boosters - perhaps with bigger incentives for local pharmacies to get involved. Provision so 12-15s can use walk-in centres. Vaccine busses in areas where the booster or the general rollout is going slow.
Click to expand...

Reports this morning were of a potential option C. Basically the economy open (shops, pubs, clubs etc) but no indoor mixing with family etc. Absolute political suicide if they stop families seeing each other for a second Christmas running but allow a good booze up at the pub!
 
jojojo said:
The hospitalisation numbers are manageable but have basically removed all the opportunities to catch up on elective surgery etc. Staff redeployment has basically closed all the non-urgent care stuff from physio to mental health.

They're also putting a lot of stress on intensive care staff, and some of the internal medicine specialties. Asking people not to take holidays, or to do extra overtime, for a few months is one thing - to keep asking for it 18 months later and with seemingly no end in sight is a different kind of problem. The emotional and physical strain is showing. A&E departments and the ambulance service are having to deal with more work than they should and covid wards are heavy on staff and space. Hospitals are struggling to discharge patients because things like care plans can't be created and residential and community care don't want potentially infectious people being transferred to them, even if they don't need further hospital care.

That said, the statistical models said this was coming. In fact the main ones suggested that hospitalisations could be twice as high by now. Those models generally showed higher but narrower peaks than we're experiencing. The total numbers, deaths/hospitalisations, are as predicted but they're happening as a near flat line. We have indeed flattened the curve but at a level that's been continuously hard on staff for months.

You're right in general terms though. The case rates are as expected, the death rates are not racing away, hospitalisations are high but less than a quarter of the previous peak. Sustainable? No, according to the front line staff handling it or the people who are being kept waiting for medical attention. Yes, according to raw bed counts.

At any rate Javid was right about one thing. We are utterly dependant on the vaccines keeping working, the rollout continuing and the boosters doing what we hope. The booking system website updated last night to stop telling the 6 month+ group to wait until their GP calls and to allow them to book boosters directly, so maybe things will start to speed up.

TLDR - case rates are high but don't take them as the key indicator, they won't fall much until enough under 18s have been vaxxed or been infected. Deaths and hospitalisations are both in line with the most optimistic models the government is using, and may fall quite quickly if the booster program works.
Click to expand...

Surely this capacity issue is why/when we needed the nightingale hospitals though no??

Staff shortages is a separate issue but there needed and needs to be a massive incentive to get nurses / doctors in place.
 
Heardy said:
Surely this capacity issue is why/when we needed the nightingale hospitals though no??

Staff shortages is a separate issue but there needed and needs to be a massive incentive to get nurses / doctors in place.
Click to expand...
Most of the nightingale hospitals have closed, a lot of them never saw patients. They needed the same staff that the hospital ICUs and high dependency units needed.

Some areas have been able to reorganize so they can keep certain hospitals/wings covid free. But most areas still get stuck when it comes to ICU places and A&E. It's not that the units are "overwhelmed" as in full (though some are sending patients to neighbouring hospitals and have ambulances queuing outside). It's more that they're too full to do their normal job, that includes things like ICUs looking after heart operation patients for a couple of days after surgery, so people wait longer for "routine" care.

We didn't have the capacity before the pandemic, and covid has loaded extra work on the system.

GPs are in the same boat - Javid can make his cheap shots about them needing to get back to normal, seeing people face to face. But there are fewer now than there were 5 years ago. The shortages are worst in the most deprived areas (where health outcomes are usually worse). Now they're supposed to be dealing with the booster program.

As to whether the tactics work and we start seeing hospitalisations and deaths fall - in time for Christmas and the flu season - we should see over the next month.
 
Garethw said:
Reports this morning were of a potential option C. Basically the economy open (shops, pubs, clubs etc) but no indoor mixing with family etc. Absolute political suicide if they stop families seeing each other for a second Christmas running but allow a good booze up at the pub!
Click to expand...
Not a chance - unless something goes wrong with the vaccine/booster rollout and/or we see a variant emerge that can evade the vaccine. If death/hospital rates jumped massively then maybe, but I don't believe even Boris would then have the nerve to say you can still go to the pub but we'll send the police round to confiscate the turkey if you have the family round at home.

We might hear some pre-emptive buck passing from ministers, so they can do their "told you so" speech later if it goes wrong. Hopefully though they'll get someone the public like, like JvT, to remind people to do LFTs before they meet, to open the windows, to get boosters if eligible etc.
 
Heardy said:
Surely this capacity issue is why/when we needed the nightingale hospitals though no??

Staff shortages is a separate issue but there needed and needs to be a massive incentive to get nurses / doctors in place.
Click to expand...
You just can't get them. Intensive care nurses are hard to find.
 
jojojo said:
The hospitalisation numbers are manageable but have basically removed all the opportunities to catch up on elective surgery etc. Staff redeployment has basically closed all the non-urgent care stuff from physio to mental health.

They're also putting a lot of stress on intensive care staff, and some of the internal medicine specialties. Asking people not to take holidays, or to do extra overtime, for a few months is one thing - to keep asking for it 18 months later and with seemingly no end in sight is a different kind of problem. The emotional and physical strain is showing. A&E departments and the ambulance service are having to deal with more work than they should and covid wards are heavy on staff and space. Hospitals are struggling to discharge patients because things like care plans can't be created and residential and community care don't want potentially infectious people being transferred to them, even if they don't need further hospital care.

That said, the statistical models said this was coming. In fact the main ones suggested that hospitalisations could be twice as high by now. Those models generally showed higher but narrower peaks than we're experiencing. The total numbers, deaths/hospitalisations, are as predicted but they're happening as a near flat line. We have indeed flattened the curve but at a level that's been continuously hard on staff for months.

You're right in general terms though. The case rates are as expected, the death rates are not racing away, hospitalisations are high but less than a quarter of the previous peak. Sustainable? No, according to the front line staff handling it or the people who are being kept waiting for medical attention. Yes, according to raw bed counts.

At any rate Javid was right about one thing. We are utterly dependant on the vaccines keeping working, the rollout continuing and the boosters doing what we hope. The booking system website updated last night to stop telling the 6 month+ group to wait until their GP calls and to allow them to book boosters directly, so maybe things will start to speed up.

TLDR - case rates are high but don't take them as the key indicator, they won't fall much until enough under 18s have been vaxxed or been infected. Deaths and hospitalisations are both in line with the most optimistic models the government is using, and may fall quite quickly if the booster program works.
Click to expand...

Thanks. A very informative read. And yes I read every single word. :)
 
jojojo said:
At any rate Javid was right about one thing. We are utterly dependant on the vaccines keeping working, the rollout continuing and the boosters doing what we hope. The booking system website updated last night to stop telling the 6 month+ group to wait until their GP calls and to allow them to book boosters directly, so maybe things will start to speed up.
Click to expand...
And inevitably that was also spin! The booking system appeared to change a few hours after Javid's speech (despite him implying that it was just lazy oldies not taking up the booster offer - despite the booking system telling them they couldn't) but actually the back end hasn't changed yet so people just ended up with "not allowed" after they entered their "allowed according to the rules" data.



The booking system is accepting 12-15s now though, but only for certain vaccine sites so potentially not for people's local ones. Walk-in sites currently look like the better bet, but no one seems to be quite sure if all sites are allowed to deal with 12-15s - certainly some walk-in sites are saying explicitly no boosters at this stage. :wenger:
 
golden_blunder said:
They will end up replacing the shortage from Europe with more Indian & nurses from the Philippines. That will please the brexit gang
Click to expand...
Yes, this is a problem because countries like India and certainly some of the African countries need to keep their own nurses and doctors. It's different when we recruited Spanish and German nurses, those are wealthy countries.
 
Penna said:
You just can't get them. Intensive care nurses are hard to find.
Click to expand...

Oh I know that, I didn’t mean by magic - but perhaps through incentives (like a decent wage) practitioners that have left the profession might return.

The pay / conditions point is a longer term issue but the gap has to be plugged one way or another…
 
One for the geeks. I keep mentioning the modelling that the government is using. The latest updates to the guidance are here:
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/sage-meetings-october-2021

SPI-M-O contains the models for hospital admissions over the next 6 months. They look at various scenarios depending on how fast the vaccines (and boosters) wane and how close we go to our pre-pandemic behaviour. Broadly though, if we behave as we are doing now, the boosters rollout works and the boosters (at least) restore efficacy for at least 6 months then hospital admission rates are currently at/about their peak, they'll decline through November and will keep falling as we go through the flu season. If we mix more (Christmas parties? Family get togethers?) - the risks get higher, but provided the vaccines hold up, hospitalisations don't go much above where we are now (but they don't go down to make way for flu or for other kinds of medical care).

The "considerations for impact of Plan B" talks about likely outcomes of the Plan B mitigations if used. Their basic conclusion is that the biggest actual hit on case rates would be a return to more WfH. Though they suggest that masks and vaccine passes will contribute to steadying the levels as well. Psychologically though, triggering Plan B might trip us to stay at our current mixing level, rather than getting bolder.
 
It's time for Plan B.

Even the thickest of bastards would be able to learn something from how Covid has progressed in the UK...but Boris & co are beyond that.
 
They don’t have the political capital yet for Plan B. They have to wait until it’s literally desperation and thousands of deaths per day before they can be seen to give in to external pressures and bring in new restrictions.


We all know the reality of what this is going to mean and it’s holding out until everyone has had their Christmas and a minimum 4 week full lock down in January.
 
Cases are bound to decline towards end of next week (kids off school). Or a slow down in the growth. We just need to get through this winter and so have the hope we can get through every winter if we provide boosters annually. Deaths will continue. People keep asking what's an acceptable count. Ask anyone and all will have a different opinion. There's no easy answer and the balance between avoiding restrictions and keeping the pressure on the NHS low is so fragile.

My only hope is cyclical reinfections will render this virus weaker and weaker. On top of boosters. Not sure if the majority of hospitalizations are unvaccinated still. Havnt looked recently. If so, this is disappointing..
 
Reddevildans said:
Cases are bound to decline towards end of next week (kids off school). Or a slow down in the growth. We just need to get through this winter and so have the hope we can get through every winter if we provide boosters annually. Deaths will continue. People keep asking what's an acceptable count. Ask anyone and all will have a different opinion. There's no easy answer and the balance between avoiding restrictions and keeping the pressure on the NHS low is so fragile.

My only hope is cyclical reinfections will render this virus weaker and weaker. On top of boosters. Not sure if the majority of hospitalizations are unvaccinated still. Havnt looked recently. If so, this is disappointing..
Click to expand...
The majority of hospitalisations among the under 50s are unvaxxed. But the hospitalisation risks are much higher in the 70+, almost all of them are vaccinated, and so most of the hospitalisations in that age group are vaxxed. If you look at individual odds of course, you're safer vaxxed than unvaxxed at any age. Boosters will have a huge impact on the 50+ hospitalisations, if the early results from Pfizer and Israel are confirmed.

In terms of deaths/hospitalisations what the government are working with (even if they don't want to be heard saying it at a press conference) is the idea that they can get away with 1000 hospitalisations/day and 1000 deaths/week. But they can't get away with those indefinitely. If the boosters work (and the rollout speeds up and places like carehomes don't get forgotten) then we'll see the hospitalisations/deaths start falling sometime in November.

If the boosters don't work or the rollout stalls (which may have already happened in the carehome sector) then they'll have to hit the panic button. Whether Plan B starts now or not, the outcome relies on the boosters. They've gone for a vaccines only approach, most of their health/science advisors would probably have gone vaccines+ mostly to concentrate people's minds on the problem (encourage testing/vaccines). The stats currently say it's too close to call.
 
Last edited:
Reddevildans said:
Cases are bound to decline towards end of next week (kids off school). Or a slow down in the growth. We just need to get through this winter and so have the hope we can get through every winter if we provide boosters annually. Deaths will continue. People keep asking what's an acceptable count. Ask anyone and all will have a different opinion. There's no easy answer and the balance between avoiding restrictions and keeping the pressure on the NHS low is so fragile.

My only hope is cyclical reinfections will render this virus weaker and weaker. On top of boosters. Not sure if the majority of hospitalizations are unvaccinated still. Havnt looked recently. If so, this is disappointing..
Click to expand...
95% hospitalised people unvaxxed in NL
 
Beans said:
Don't need to wear a mask when you're meeting people you know, great news! Or does Boris just not want to wear a mask?
Click to expand...

Who knows. But my main concern is that he is giving those who simply cannot be bothered to do the right thing an excuse not to.
 
In Paris at the moment. Fascinating how different people behave here to when I was in London recently. Very close to 100% compliance with mask wearing. None of the racial/ethnic divides re masks that was so obvious in London.

Obviously, the difference that masks make in controlling the epidemic is debatable but I always think they’re a useful visible proxy for people doing all the other stuff. Including, presumably, getting vaccinated. All of which helps explain the huge difference between case numbers in the UK and France.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
In Paris at the moment. Fascinating how different people behave here to when I was in London recently. Very close to 100% compliance with mask wearing. None of the racial/ethnic divides re masks that was so obvious in London.

Obviously, the difference that masks make in controlling the epidemic is debatable but I always think they’re a useful visible proxy for people doing all the other stuff. Including, presumably, getting vaccinated. All of which helps explain the huge difference between case numbers in the UK and France.
Click to expand...
France aren't finding it plain sailing though, even with the low case rates. They've currently got about 6.5k hospitalised compared to the UK's 8.5k. As much as I'd like it to be about cheap fixes like masks, particularly on public transport and in shops etc (ie: places those who know they're vulnerable can avoid), I think reopening is a tough project and a lot of countries will find this winter hard.
 
jojojo said:
France aren't finding it plain sailing though, even with the low case rates. They've currently got about 6.5k hospitalised compared to the UK's 8.5k. As much as I'd like it to be about cheap fixes like masks, particularly on public transport and in shops etc (ie: places those who know they're vulnerable can avoid), I think reopening is a tough project and a lot of countries will find this winter hard.
Click to expand...

I definitely don’t think masks are a quick fix. I’m not even convinced they’re a slow fix! It’s just that they give the impression in Paris that everyone is in this together and all pulling in the same direction. Which I didn’t expect and definitely didn’t see in London.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.