I wonder if the shorter timeline might paradoxically be a good thing? More explosive increase in cases but shorter overall duration of each surge. Arguably the worst thing about this virus is the very lengthy disease course, which means we get horribly lengthy incidence spikes. If it operated on the same timeline as, say, influenza the whole pandemic would probably be done and dusted by now.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
I wonder if the shorter timeline might paradoxically be a good thing? More explosive increase in cases but shorter overall duration of each surge. Arguably the worst thing about this virus is the very lengthy disease course, which means we get horribly lengthy incidence spikes. If it operated on the same timeline as, say, influenza the whole pandemic would probably be done and dusted by now.
What am I missing? Now you want quick herd-immunity? I don’t see any benefit in that.
With shorter infectious time and more infectious, I guess you could quarantine people with less exposure but for shorter time.
@jojojo Why wouldn't test & trace exist? It is instrumental in Finland, the app has been useless, and we had one of the highest amounts of downloads.
The epedemiology debate is above my paygrade I'm afraid. I've read people suggest that it means event - symptoms is shorter, and therefore assuming we recognise the symptoms we don't walk around with it for as long in the asymptomatic/early symptom phase. So on average we meet fewer different people while infectious.
Across the country it might help describe the way it seems to surge in one local area, and then falls back or flattens again soon after.
The benefit of a shorter disease/infectiousness duration surely doesn’t need to be explained?
Of course, I’m assuming that a quicker onset of symptoms also means a shorter overall illness. Which might not be the case.
Test and trace relies on a timeline between positive test and contacts informed.
If you go with a picture of day one - symptoms, day two - test, day three - result, day 4 - trace start phoning the contacts. Those contacts will already be in their most infectious phase and some will have symptoms themselves. Realistically, it's about which people does the person who tested positive warn themself.
In honesty that formal timeline is itself optimistic in terms of what typically happens. If you look at UK testing data, fewer people get tested at weekends, and on holidays - because most people don't react the instant they get symptoms, and presumably decide that they'll get a test if they still feel bad on Monday
If you go into the idea of asking the people who are contacts of the contacts of the person who tested positive (which you need to if infected to infectious is 4 days) then with UK case rates you'd be quarantining hundreds of thousands of people per day. It's just not going to happen here.
Ok. I did misunderstand.
But given it has been a lot harder to contain in places like Vietnam, Thailand or Sydney, I don't think it matters if some aspects of it is better. When there is clear evidence that on the whole it is much harder to contain.
@jojojo Yes, that has been one of the main reason to keep infections relatively low during the whole ordeal. So that t&t can work. But probably will be different tactics in the future.
Yes. I agree with this.
I just remember hearing someone say very early on that the very slow/lengthy duration of illness is one of the reasons it will last much longer than previous flu pandemics.
You’re probably right though. It’s just semantics. Ironically you’ve shut down one of my rare moments of positivity!
I still think the biggest problem with indoor dining right now is that unvaccinated young people will be serving vaccinated older people, I just don't think it's remotely acceptable. The government keep citing that they've made J&J available to 18+ in pharmacies but that's still not nearly enough. They simply need to make more of an effort to get these workers vaccinated, fast. I think once we have a scenario where these workers are vaccinated and can actually walk into their own pubs/restaurants and sit down too as opposed to just serving vaccinated people, the indoor dining issue becomes a lot less difficult to agree with.
At the end of the day, vaccinated people can still spread Covid to unvaccinated people, it could turn into a total shambles.
True. It’s a good point that I’ve also seen elsewhere. The indoor dining might comeback to bite.
Is this different for outdoor dining?
Yeah outdoor dining is already open and available to all. Unfortunately Ireland isn't very well equipped for it due to our unpredictable weather so it hasn't been a feasible option for a lot of establishments.
But isn't it the same problem of unvaccinated people serving vaccinated?
It is, but imagine a cool wind blowing around outside as per usual in Ireland, versus a pokey little restaurant with bad ventilation
No, because unvaccinated can also get served in that scenario, anyone can. Also Covid has also been proven to be far less transmissible outdoors.
Covid hospitalisations in AU resulting from a Delta outbreak suggest that it affects young people more severely than before but the data isn't sufficient to be certain. Schools seem to be affected far more but again with the same small data set proviso.
Italy is toying with the idea of reintroducing restrictions in some regions, including ours. We haven't had any "grand opening" here, as it's all been done at a regional level for the duration of the pandemic.
The only thing I don't want them to bring back is mask-wearing outside, which is awful in hot weather.
The only thing I don't want them to bring back is mask-wearing outside, which is awful in hot weather.
Ireland on the rise now, over 900 cases reported today
Been on the rise for a while now. Only real surprise is how it took this long to go exponential. As far as this fecking pandemic goes, where the Uk leads we follow.
We’ll U.K. are something like 45k per day which is nuts so let’s hope you’re wrong
I was checking the UK stats and saw Northern Ireland had 1,083 cases today. Seems crazy high given they have about 1/3 the population of Ireland.
It was the same way with previous surges. Followed by inevitable overflow into all the border counties. Kind of makes a mockery of our efforts to keep numbers down when they’re off the charts the far side of a basically nonexistent border.
So, 48k new infections, with deaths and hospitalisations rising.
Next week restrictions will be eased further.
IMO, restrictions should be kept the same or tightened.
I am 99% sure that we are heading for another lockdown...probably in August and that lockdown could be staved off, if we don't ease restrictions further.
Are there any statistics to show what % of deaths are vaccinated persons?
I'm assuming it's mostly the unvaccinated that are passing away, I can't see how else the opening is justified.
I'm assuming it's mostly the unvaccinated that are passing away, I can't see how else the opening is justified.
How bad an idea is it to head to London this weekend? The trip was booked a month or so ago but the rising number of cases has spooked me a bit. I would be avoiding pubs and restaurants and probably just do some touristy things such as the museums and art galleries. I'm in my late 20s and have had one dose of Pfizer with my second due next week. Obviously not in the vulnerable category but still would rather not be exposed to it before I have been fully vaccinated.
Got my positive test today. Had symptoms for 3 days now. The lateral flow tests all came back negative which is worrying but the PCR I took yesterday said positive. Had one vaccine so far, in my mid 20s. Just feels like a very mild cold so far, so I’ve been lucky. Hopefully stays this way.
It’s worrying how many people have symptoms and just do one lateral flow test, then carry on like normal once it comes back negative. I wonder if they do more harm than good in the long run.
These lateral flow tests are fecking hopeless aren't they!?
They’ve been massively controversial in Ireland. Our advisory body have consistently pushed back against them for exactly the reason you mention. Which a whole load of very smart people don’t seem to want to accept is a risk at all.
Just been as a visitor. The underground is crowded and not nice, but then again an awful lot of London is in walking distance. The museums are very quiet, especially at opening time, but that's always the best time anyway. Visit early, do the parks and riverside afterwards. The amazing thing is the people, so friendly, without all the tourists they've turned into normal human beings. All in all a good time to visit.
Cheers for the info. I will take the risk then and avoid the tube as much as possible.
Yep tested negative then had PCR day after and was positive.
@massi83
My fellow scaremonger, Prof Pagel, is also going for an optimistic take on that paper we were discussing earlier
@massi83
My fellow scaremonger, Prof Pagel, is also going for an optimistic take on that paper we were discussing earlier
I am not sure of the importance of this. Probably something I am not understanding. Isn't the only difference that instead of becoming infectious after 6 days previously, now it is 4 days (in addition to higher r0). So if you make a policy change, like she says, it affects on average 2 days quicker. But when doubling times in most places are around 2 weeks, 2 days seems inconsequential, and there is ample time to react anyways. Unless you do a De Ligt and 8x cases in a week. But as I said probably something I am missing, and just glanced at the actual paper in question.
See he calculates it as 98% or herd immunity through vaccinations not even possible now...good luck to the government explaining that to the general public.
. Has to be throwing the kitchen sink from his b and c options and crossing many fingers the outcome isn't too bad.So let's say Delta hadn't emerged...would we be on very comfortable path now (despite the panic over the South African and Kent variants last December/January when vaxx roll out was in very early stages).
So Chris Whitty says that a new lockdown is likely because of the sky high rate of infections from under 20's.
Hmmmmm, I wonder what has caused this and how it wasn't foreseen from happening............?
Also, those fully vaccinated with Oxford jabs, 3 times more likely to catch covid again over Pfizer.
Infection rates going up like crazy as are deaths including amongst fully vaccinated people and the governments response is, drop your masks (and trousers if an MP) and open up everything and let the fittest survive and sod the rest.
Hmmmmm, I wonder what has caused this and how it wasn't foreseen from happening............?
Also, those fully vaccinated with Oxford jabs, 3 times more likely to catch covid again over Pfizer.
Infection rates going up like crazy as are deaths including amongst fully vaccinated people and the governments response is, drop your masks (and trousers if an MP) and open up everything and let the fittest survive and sod the rest.
It's a risk. Small risk. But bigger than staying at home.
The delta variant is wreaking havoc in indonesia. The alpha variant is mostly subdued by the early vaccine.
Your vaccine is like wearing a helmet, helps prefent death in the event of accident but hardly a guarantee.
But then again. Life must go on. Just know the risk and that it's never 100% safe regardless of what the government says