Ok. How many fans will be there, maybe 30-40k? Even if 5% get infected (highly unlikely) it won't really matter, there are thousands of cases in Europe already. Delta won't be a big problem in Europe. A problem sure, big problem, not really. Vaccinations are far enough that next wave will be much smaller than previous ones.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
I'm not so sure that your optimism stands up to scrutiny, unfortunately. This could be a very big problem.
I’m really curious about the delta variant ex-UK. It makes no sense for it to drive such a big surge in the Uk yet spare the rest of Europe. Either things are very finely balanced and a few super spreader events could create a lot of problems or the increased transmissibility is being over-stated. I obviously hope the latter but would rather not see that hypothesis tested!
The Delta variant is at very low levels here in Italy, about 1% of cases. I'd love to think we'll keep it that way as our daily numbers are good now. I think the reintroduction of quarantine for UK visitors (which happened yesterday) will be a help.
Even in UK the doubling time is like 2 weeks. Europe is 5-6 weeks behind UK in vaccinations. Europe will have less trouble from delta than UK. And UK won't have that big of a problem. Depending on one's definition of "big problem".
It will only be a problem if it results in hospitalisations and that is looking unlikely as most cases are in younger folk and most older people are double jabbed. Very relaxed in the UK now.
China shutting down again? I'll admit I haven't been paying as much attention lately, things are opening up in the US and I haven't heard about any hospitals filling up. I have noticed this thread is still full of variant data, and that the UK is still closed.
Is this related to the fact that China's vaccine is less effective? I would think everyone there has been vaccinated.
Wuhan shutting down is what got my attention in the first place. China doesn't seem to prefer a cautious shutdown approach like NZ, and I don't trust their publicly available infection numbers. So it seems this could be bad. But I believe China has done other shut downs, I was to say in Beijing, since opening up again, and they didn't lead to further shut downs. But that's Beijing where the govt is and perhaps they were being extra cautious for that reason.
I want to ask what the odds are that things are going to get worse again.
https://www.scmp.com/coronavirus/gr...ancelled-and-districts-locked-down-amid-fresh
Is this related to the fact that China's vaccine is less effective? I would think everyone there has been vaccinated.
Wuhan shutting down is what got my attention in the first place. China doesn't seem to prefer a cautious shutdown approach like NZ, and I don't trust their publicly available infection numbers. So it seems this could be bad. But I believe China has done other shut downs, I was to say in Beijing, since opening up again, and they didn't lead to further shut downs. But that's Beijing where the govt is and perhaps they were being extra cautious for that reason.
I want to ask what the odds are that things are going to get worse again.
https://www.scmp.com/coronavirus/gr...ancelled-and-districts-locked-down-amid-fresh
China’s been going for a zero covid policy from day one. Which means that vaccine efficacy and variants are irrelevant. They don’t want any cases of covid at all. So jump straight to draconian lockdowns every time they have even a handful of cases.
It means that their citizens have led a much more normal life than us over the last 18 months but they’re going to have to change tack at some point and let the virus spread throughout their country, hoping that the vaccines will keep the inevitable outbreaks fairly small, with few casualties. When to change this strategy is a tough call. And it’s going to be very unpopular with a lot of people that live there.
See also NZ/Australia
Okay I didn't realize they were taking a NZ/AUS approach now. I never believed their claims of low numbers though after they switched their method early on. But I guess it's true. Just hard to believe they really got transmission to stop after having so many early cases.
Grim thought but like the Kent variant (by definition) spread quickly and initially primarily here, could the UK benefit in a perverse way from early and rapid exposure to the Delta variant?
No, thank you. China is not a model. Not convinced by the quality of their data too...
How exactly did the UK benefit from its exposure to the Kent variant?
By early and rapid exposure they were able to target and get the variant under control . Isn’t the Kent variant still the dominant strain in much of Europe?
I'm not sure having more cases and more deaths over this last winter than anywhere else in Europe counts as a benefit.
You don’t target variants. It’s the same approach for all variants. It’s just that this same approach can be less effective with some variants than others. There’s no upside to having a high % of those difficult to control variants within your borders. Only downsides.
Our small (so far) outbreak in Sydney is the Delta variant and at least 2 of the 9 cases were transmitted by very fleeting contact. In one case patient zero walked past someone at an outside Cafe table and transmitted the virus.
I would call any increase on the numbers of cases that were being seen just 2 weeks ago. The vaccinations clearly had a positive impact but if cases start to rise above the plateau that had been reach has to be a worry. This thing increases exponentially and even if the majority are safe because of vaccinations the increased infectiousness means it will find those unvaccinated. A big problem in my view is increased hospitalisations and any increase in deaths. It already looks like a big problem to me. Infections have jumped ahead of the first wave in Britain and that was considered a big problem at that time.
I think it is likely that it is only how long the Delta variant takes to dominate in each country and in turn how big a problem it is will be directly correlated to vaccination rates. We really need to hit HIT of at all possible. Vaccine hesitancy can feck us yet.
Nope. Testing was pretty non-existant. And I do understand exponential growth.
Delta dominates in Portugal btw @Pogue Mahone . Moronic to open travel for Brits. Spain probably next. There is very little reason for cases to be rising anywhere in Europe. So basicly it is enough to look where they are rising to determine where delta is dominating.
https://amp.ft.com/content/d4abbe5e-8650-4a76-9fea-2d3efa2ed52b?__twitter_impression=true FT reckons delta is at 26% in Italy, Germany 15%, France 7%.
Google the headline: "Delta variant begins to spread, threatening EU's covid progress" for free read, if the link doesn't work.
Google the headline: "Delta variant begins to spread, threatening EU's covid progress" for free read, if the link doesn't work.
The "where is Delta" question is complicated by the monitoring strategy in different countries as well. Some are faster than others (so are only just reporting samples taken in mid May) some monitor almost all cases (Denmark), most cases (UK), few cases (most including Portugal) - so the story is incomplete.
There's a big chance of sampling bias in this smaller data sets. So for example this chart:
It looks detailed but some of the case numbers behind it aren't so convincing.
There's a big chance of sampling bias in this smaller data sets. So for example this chart:
It looks detailed but some of the case numbers behind it aren't so convincing.
The "where is Delta" question is complicated by the monitoring strategy in different countries as well. Some are faster than others (so are only just reporting samples taken in mid May) some monitor almost all cases (Denmark), most cases (UK), few cases (most including Portugal) - so the story is incomplete.
There's a big chance of sampling bias in this smaller data sets. So for example this chart:
It looks detailed but some of the case numbers behind it aren't so convincing.
Small sample sizes won’t necessarily cause bias per se so long as the sample is carefully selected. When the numbers are as low as, say, Portugal then that becomes almost impossible.
One thing’s for sure. It’s a matter of when not if this variant becomes dominant in Europe.
I would imagine FT has taken those into account. They have been very good with their analysis throughout.
Also Portugal vs Spain isn't really surprising at all. Portugal's absolute numbers were quite low so much easier for delta's proportional size to grow faster.
Also Portugal vs Spain isn't really surprising at all. Portugal's absolute numbers were quite low so much easier for delta's proportional size to grow faster.
Here’s where the FT are getting their data from. Doesn’t get into the methodology behind the sampling in the various countries and includes this disclaimer
Not that it matters very much. Each country will end up making their own judgement calls based on their own data. And they will have a better understanding of exactly how reliable it is.
Countries like Italy who continously say they are at around 1%?
7.7% according to GISAID. Whose data is supplied to them by individual countries. Where are Italy contradicting that %?
In Ireland the 2.2% figure on GISAID exactly matches what is published in our local press.
Well that was overly facetious of me. Penna is referencing the 1-2%, so I would expect that is what they say in the press. But it does seem some countires are either behind FT on their analysis or spreding misinfromation.
Also gisaid is last 4 weeks, which is behind the current situation by a lot. And the 26% from FT is pretty close to (a bit more) what you would expect the share to be today if it has been 7.7% over the last 4 weeks.
And gisaid data seems to be lacking even more. Finland has had over 200 cases of delta and there it reads 51, and 0,0%.
It’s even more complicated than that. As @jojojo alluded to, differing genotyping methodologies between countries mean sometimes the “latest” survey results are from samples collected two weeks ago. In other countries (e.g. UK) there’s a 24 hour turnaround.
Basically it’s very difficult to get accurate comparisons between countries for all sorts of reasons. Hence what matters most of all are trends within countries. And the decision-makers in those individual countries will be best placed to understand limitations of the data which they are basing their decisions on.
I obviously know your point from 1st paragraph. As for 2nd, several countries have made several very simple mistakes throughout pandemic. You seem confident that they won't repeat themselves. I have no idea why you think so.
I’m only discussing the scientific interpretation of these data. How reliable they are and the potential for biased/misleading results.
As you well know, the “simple mistakes” come when science interacts with politics.
Fair enough.
I will add that when I challenged Finnish health authorities in March 2020 when they were saying that IFR is 0.1%, or later when Tegnell said it is 0.3%, I was also met with "scientist know better". Some scientists are bad at their job.
Yeah, I think that’s fair. I remember @Arruda making some great points early on last year about how the conventional approach to scientific consensus just doesn’t work in a fast moving scenario like this pandemic.
Although I think a lot of lessons were learned after previous surges and the decision-making has got better each time.
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U.K is currently very close to 80% for first doses with many many more young people ready and willing when called as seen with queues at major hubs in London at the weekend.
I personally think we'll hit low 90s %, second doses is just over 30m now so very close to 60% of those eligible who are now as protected as possible at this present time.
Allegedly at the time of first roll out in December and with some of the negative press headlines government here were thinking it would only be 75% or thereabouts take up.
Hopefully will be similar rates in all the other major countries. O.k it's not every single person in every single country but 90% + surely gives a decent fighting chance of keeping covid at arms length. Or do we still have to wait years for its impact to significantly lessen.
Italy has been saying around 1% based on samples done up to 11th June, it was declining slightly in some areas but there have been outbreaks in a couple of towns this last few days.
I wouldn't trust the FT estimates or the sources they are pulling it from, simply because Italy hasn't been doing much sequencing until now. They have no way of knowing beyond statistical models and guesswork. 0.7% of positive tests are sequenced as of yesterday which makes any estimates fairly useless.
For what it’s worth, since I posted that they’ve released the latest sampling results from Ireland and they were at 20%. Currently takes a week get the results so the true % probably even higher right now. It never really made sense for us to be so much lower than the Uk when the borders are so permeable.
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Bollocks. Sydney well on the way to a new lockdown. We are up to 37 cases, mostly traced and isolating, but it is the Delta variant and is seems that it really is far more transmissible with people getting infected with the most fleeting of contacts with an infected person.
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...085935857e0371#block-60d28bee8f085935857e0371
https://www.nsw.gov.au/media-releases/new-covid-19-restrictions-for-greater-sydney-23-june-2021
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...085935857e0371#block-60d28bee8f085935857e0371
https://www.nsw.gov.au/media-releases/new-covid-19-restrictions-for-greater-sydney-23-june-2021
Ive just had 3 days work in Wellington postponed because of our move to alert level 2. Our vaccination program has gone from everyone vaccinated by the end of August to by Xmas. Currently we have just 1/10th of the population with 2 doses done so we are well behind Europe and other countries. At some point we will have another lockdown of some form, thats inevitable, just hope this delta variant when it sneaks in is able to be suppressed like the original till we can catch up on the vaccination numbers. Good luck, hope they can catch it fast enough.
I think #scottyfrommarketing has set a new target for AU of 50% to get their first shot before the heat death of the universe.