SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

I don’t think we need a “behaviour expert” to draw that conclusion! Of course it’s what we’re all thinking. There is no concrete evidence of it, but it’s the common sense assessment.

So they have an expert saying what most people are thinking, but in the interest of appearing balanced, they bring in another expert that says it might be that, but it also could be this, and then another expert that says it’s too early to say anything, but it is something to keep an eye on. If you assign equal weight to all experts there then you come out knowing less than what you came in with!

That amalgamated view of expertise is such a caricature of what actual expert analysis is that when people roll their eyes at experts, really they’re rolling their eyes at that caricature. I don’t agree with a lot of criticisms of mainstream media but that’s among their biggest failings!

Ah. Ok. Sure. I still prefer that sort of attempt at balance than the fringe media’s preference for trumpeting the most hysterical, click-generating single opinion possible.
 
I don’t think we need a “behaviour expert” to draw that conclusion! Of course it’s what we’re all thinking. There is no concrete evidence of it, but it’s the common sense assessment.

So they have an expert saying what most people are thinking, but in the interest of appearing balanced, they bring in another expert that says it might be that, but it also could be this, and then another expert that says it’s too early to say anything, but it is something to keep an eye on. If you assign equal weight to all experts there then you come out knowing less than what you came in with!

That amalgamated view of expertise is such a caricature of what actual expert analysis is that when people roll their eyes at experts, really they’re rolling their eyes at that caricature. I don’t agree with a lot of criticisms of mainstream media but that’s among their biggest failings!
Reminds me of the way the BBC treated the MMR debate for years, they gave equal air time to the anti-vax loons in the interests of balance, ignoring the weight of argument of just about every scientific and health institution in the world.
 
Ah. Ok. Sure. I still prefer that sort of attempt at balance than the fringe media’s preference for trumpeting the most hysterical, click-generating single opinion possible.

Oh yeah me too. I just don’t think it’s too idealistic to expect something beyond those two choices!

Reminds me of the way the BBC treated the MMR debate for years, they gave equal air time to the anti-vax loons in the interests of balance, ignoring the weight of argument of just about every scientific and health institution in the world.

Yeah exactly! I understand the intention but it has obvious dangers to it. The gradual breakdown in expert trust at least partly lies there.
 
Silverstone is going to be allowed to have the full 140,000 people for the Silverstone GP on July 18th. That feels like a weird decision to me with the current rise in cases and the Delta variant. I guess they're hoping vaccinations will be at such a high level by then it won't matter. There is a quote in the article which suggests there are conditions for entry which might mean fully vaccinated only.

It will be an interesting test at the very least with that number of people in one location.

British Grand Prix: Silverstone at full capacity crowd for next month's race - BBC Sport
 
He has a twitter thread up which seems to explain why the number of sequences analysed are different, it does have to do with stringency.
He was more stringent with one criteria (reconstructing the full sequence), they with the other (getting a lot of depth for the available sequence, they chose 10, he chose 3X coverage).
So they ended up with 50 sequences and he with 13.



I do not do nanopore sequencing, which was used for this, but I'm vaguely familiar with it. Compared to typical modern sequencing, it sequences longer and continuous fragments at the expense of sequencing depth. I don't know if one set of criteria is better than the other for nanopore. For my sequencing we are generally happier with better depth.

And I still feel too stupid to figure out what it means when you get opposite conclusions by using different cutoffs for your data quality.


Here’s the first explanation I’ve found that’s dumbed down enough for my feeble brain to understand.

 
Here’s the first explanation I’ve found that’s dumbed down enough for my feeble brain to understand.



ya i think as an explanation of what the paper says, this thread is good.
the implications are just very vague for me:


maybe the deleted ones change the relative frequencies of lineage a or b?

if the original study authors are uncooperative, i think NCBI should release the email request for deletion they were sent, at the very least.
 
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Last time cases were this high I think was around early December and deaths were around 600 a day

There is going to be an ‘acceptable’ number of dead each day.
 
Last time cases were this high I think was around early December and deaths were around 600 a day

There is going to be an ‘acceptable’ number of dead each day.

That is exactly the type of thinking that resulted in the carnage of the last year or so.
 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-57580118

You can understand why some people dismiss experts when this is how they're presented in fairness
E4q1-mSXMAkaWau


The trouble is that science and scientists in general are like that. Probabilities, statistics, likelihoods over certainty. They're experts because they know the limits of their knowledge as well as their capability.

It's one of the things that the extremes score well on - they "know" they're 100% right, however weak their evidence base, and what's more they know that morality, emotion and/or common sense is on their side. Science gets stuck with a lot of trends, percentages and hypotheses instead.
 


This could be major plot twist on SARS-CoV-2 origin story. I wish I knew enough about genetics to understand it better :(

@berbatrick?

As I understand it, there is no data that supports zoonotic origin, and what we see doesn't follow what we expect to see on those cases. It's a long story though, there is a group called Project Evidence that has done incredible work, the news recently that supports lab release in the media has come from their work.

https://project-evidence.github.io

Found out about them here :

"Exclusive: How Amateur Sleuths Broke the Wuhan Lab Story and Embarrassed the Media"

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-...oke-wuhan-lab-story-embarrassed-media-1596958
 
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That is exactly the type of thinking that resulted in the carnage of the last year or so.
Not really. Zero covid is probably not achievable and restrictions cannot go on forever.

We already have an acceptable number of deaths for all types of infectious diseases and viruses and other types of environmentally influenced/caused deaths

Of course COVID ISN’T the flu but due to vaccines if we eventually get to a point where the number of deaths each year is within a comparable range then that’s when the acceptable level of deaths will be achieved.
 
Are Robert Malone, Bret Weinstein & Steve Kirsch credible in any way? They all seem like anti-vaxxers and clever blokes.
 


The case to hospitalisation rate is about 3% now (13% in winter wave which still blows my mind tbh) and falling as more get vaccinated - length of stay is also reduced due to it primarily being younger patients/at least partially vaccinated - so I think we’re looking as good as could be expected considering what a twat this new variant is and schools breaking up in a few weeks. Other parts of the world won’t be so lucky though unfortunately due to far lower vaccination rates.
 


The case to hospitalisation rate is about 3% now (13% in winter wave which still blows my mind tbh) and falling as more get vaccinated - length of stay is also reduced due to it primarily being younger patients/at least partially vaccinated - so I think we’re looking as good as could be expected considering what a twat this new variant is and schools breaking up in a few weeks. Other parts of the world won’t be so lucky though unfortunately due to far lower vaccination rates.


Yeah, I’m really worried about Africa. Something like 1% vaccinated. There’s a lot of AZ knocking around in countries who aren’t sure what to do with it. Time to shit or get off the pot.
 
Yeah, I’m really worried about Africa. Something like 1% vaccinated. There’s a lot of AZ knocking around in countries who aren’t sure what to do with it. Time to shit or get off the pot.
We will phase out AZ use within 6 months yet can make 1 million doses a week. You would hope that we would move to help vaccinate the pacific region. But with #scottyfrommarketing and Peter Dutton in the mix I doubt it somehow.
 
https://www.thejournal.ie/taoiseach-virgin-media-interview-5476881-Jun2021/

What are your thoughts @Pogue Mahone ? Scaremongering or real threat? Cases, hospitalisations, ICU beds all still going down and vaccinations moving at a faster pace than ever, from the outside it seems a bit nuts to stop the July 5th reopening but after seeing what's happening in the UK I'm unsure.

All seems very reasonable to me. Delta variant is a curve ball and the way our vaccine roll-out panned out we’ve ended up giving almost exclusively AZ to 60-69 year olds, who are a few weeks away from getting their second dose and, hence, remain vulnerable (vaccination stats overall are very encouraging though).



I’m fully in agreement with him about “not going back”. Much better to delay the next stage of reopening then crack on and end up with a surge that forces us to roll back. Sick people aside it would be a devastating blow to the morale of the nation if we went down that path. Absolutely shite state of affairs for people in the hospitality industry but it is what it is.
 
All seems very reasonable to me. Delta variant is a curve ball and the way our vaccine roll-out panned out we’ve ended up giving almost exclusively AZ to 60-69 year olds, who are a few weeks away from getting their second dose and, hence, remain vulnerable (vaccination stats overall are very encouraging though).



I’m fully in agreement with him about “not going back”. Much better to delay the next stage of reopening then crack on and end up with a surge that forces us to roll back. Sick people aside it would be a devastating blow to the morale of the nation if we went down that path. Absolutely shite state of affairs for people in the hospitality industry but it is what it is.

Didn't know that about the 60-69's but that makes sense actually, seeing as my mother is only getting her 2nd today.

It's weird seeing the HSE actually be capable at something.

Side note, it really doesn't help Michael that he always crosses his hands like that and looks like Mr Burns.
 
I've never seen someone that's so obviously out of their depth, in every interview or tv appearance.

You only need to watch one interview to see he's absolutely clueless, i'm amazed the British public keep putting up with this shite.
 
I've never seen someone that's so obviously out of their depth, in every interview or tv appearance.

You only need to watch one interview to see he's absolutely clueless, i'm amazed the British public keep putting up with this shite.

I'm half convinced the British public like people who seem out of depth and are scared of people who actually know what they're doing
 
If you talk about it on YouTube they take down your video.

Why?

Edit: I've just checked and there are plenty of videos with it in their title. So it's not a case of talk about it and it'll be taken down. Is this one of those conspiracy things where they shout we're being 'censored' whilst being everywhere?
 
Why?

Edit: I've just checked and there are plenty of videos with it in their title. So it's not a case of talk about it and it'll be taken down. Is this one of those conspiracy things where they shout we're being 'censored' whilst being everywhere?

The latest Rogan podcast is all about it, i haven't looked into it but the way the guy goes on about Ivermetcin it sounds far too good to be true it solves everything.

He's trying to paint a picture that it's not being used and ignored because there is no money to be made from it as its a generic drug that is no longer patented.

How true any of this is i have no idea.
 
Why?

Edit: I've just checked and there are plenty of videos with it in their title. So it's not a case of talk about it and it'll be taken down. Is this one of those conspiracy things where they shout we're being 'censored' whilst being everywhere?

Correct.

The whole Ivermectin hysteria is such bullshit. There have been plenty of other off-patent drugs extensively tested against COVID.
 
Why?

Edit: I've just checked and there are plenty of videos with it in their title. So it's not a case of talk about it and it'll be taken down. Is this one of those conspiracy things where they shout we're being 'censored' whilst being everywhere?
YouTube have been taking down videos because the FDA has not recommended the drug. There was a lot of concern about misinformation, it seems. I'm glad to hear that it can he talked about now. The channel Peak Prosperity, one of the two most popular channels on YouTube for Covid news and analysis along with MedCram, had videos removed that covered the data coming back in regards to it.

Here's an article about some of the censorship.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/youtube-cancels-the-u-s-senate-11612288061

This source seems pretty good too.

https://taibbi.substack.com/p/why-has-ivermectin-become-a-dirty-7bd

@Pogue Mahone
 
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Quality control
The latest Rogan podcast is all about it, i haven't looked into it but the way the guy goes on about Ivermetcin it sounds far too good to be true it solves everything.

He's trying to paint a picture that it's not being used and ignored because there is no money to be made from it as its a generic drug that is no longer patented.

How true any of this is i have no idea.

Considering money and people I would say that is a very good bet. We are getting some very good data and peer reviewed analysis coming through now so I would expect some clearer answers soon. I'm glad we are trailing in the UK. A worrying peer reviewed study has come out today that says for every 3 lives saved by the vaccine 2 vaccine deaths are caused so there is no silver bullet. Someone alluded above we have to live with acceptable deaths and that includes from treatments as well as the virus it seems.
 
If there are possible any more lockdowns in the future there'll be more people citing yet another breach of lockdown rules by a government official as a reason not to give a feck.
 
Considering money and people I would say that is a very good bet. We are getting some very good data and peer reviewed analysis coming through now so I would expect some clearer answers soon. I'm glad we are trailing in the UK. A worrying peer reviewed study has come out today that says for every 3 lives saved by the vaccine 2 vaccine deaths are caused so there is no silver bullet. Someone alluded above we have to live with acceptable deaths and that includes from treatments as well as the virus it seems.

Please share. Sounds like complete bullshit.
 
Considering money and people I would say that is a very good bet. We are getting some very good data and peer reviewed analysis coming through now so I would expect some clearer answers soon. I'm glad we are trailing in the UK. A worrying peer reviewed study has come out today that says for every 3 lives saved by the vaccine 2 vaccine deaths are caused so there is no silver bullet. Someone alluded above we have to live with acceptable deaths and that includes from treatments as well as the virus it seems.
Link? 14,000 lives are estimated to have been saved so far via vaccination in the U.K. alone. By that maths you’re saying around 9k have died from vaccination…
 
I've just been in the UK for a few weeks and recently returned to Australia, so I'm in the quarantine hotel. I just received a message from the NHS App to self isolate for two days because I've been in contact with someone with Covid. That seems strange, why only two days does that make sense to anyone?