SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Today is the first time for months that the UK has more new cases than Italy. Italy's are steadily falling of course, and have eventually reached UK levels.

It's encouraging for Italy, as the vaccine programme was very slow at first but is now going along well.
 
All the far right commentators pushing the false narrative that suicides were were up massively this year, truth is it was down 20% on previous years, they have attributed it to the we are all in it together mentality.

Another month till the pubs reopen, we are doing that COVID passport which should see some of the polish anti vaccers at work get it hopefully, anyone know when 30 to 40s groups will be able to register in Ireland
 
Penna said:
Today is the first time for months that the UK has more new cases than Italy. Italy's are steadily falling of course, and have eventually reached UK levels.

It's encouraging for Italy, as the vaccine programme was very slow at first but is now going along well.
Click to expand...
I saw that Italy is opening up the jab for all over 16s, they must be in overdrive
 
christy87 said:
All the far right commentators pushing the false narrative that suicides were were up massively this year, truth is it was down 20% on previous years, they have attributed it to the we are all in it together mentality.

Another month till the pubs reopen, we are doing that COVID passport which should see some of the polish anti vaccers at work get it hopefully, anyone know when 30 to 40s groups will be able to register in Ireland
Click to expand...

45-49 registration opened up 10 days ago. 40-45 supposed to be open next week.
 
Surely it makes sense to delay the June 21st opening even more now with the clear increase in cases and hospitalisations going up too.
 
Tibs said:
Surely it makes sense to delay the June 21st opening even more now with the clear increase in cases and hospitalisations going up too.
Click to expand...

Feels inevitable to me, I think it will be pushed back to early July (think that's actually logical to study more on how pilots for sports and music events in middle of June go). And of course trying to get up to 50m vaccinated which should be possible for early July with pace of rollout. You're talking of well over 90% take up which is better than many predicted.

I never really expected anything to just end on June 21st anyway, did anyone really think compulsory mask wearing was just going to end there and then so have no issue with these restrictions stretching on for another few weeks while they monitor hospital admissions as there's still plenty you can do in day to day life compared to this time last year.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Wow. Those prior infection % are amazing. Especially 15-24. One in three of them have had covid. Bonkers. Although also blows the claims of zero covid goons about “1 in 10” get long covid right out of the water.
Click to expand...

Here about 40% of symptomatic cases (not just hospitalisations) still had symptoms after 2 months. However, asymptomatic cases don't seem to be suffering from long covid, which isn't surprising. Of course we haven't had mass infection so we haven't had the same mass of young asymptomatic cases so symptomatic cases are a higher % overall here.
 
christy87 said:
All the far right commentators pushing the false narrative that suicides were were up massively this year, truth is it was down 20% on previous years, they have attributed it to the we are all in it together mentality.

Another month till the pubs reopen, we are doing that COVID passport which should see some of the polish anti vaccers at work get it hopefully, anyone know when 30 to 40s groups will be able to register in Ireland
Click to expand...
The Murdoch press was hammering that narrative during Melbournes lockdown.

Just made the Dan Andrews even more popular in the electorate.
 
horsechoker said:
I saw that Italy is opening up the jab for all over 16s, they must be in overdrive
Click to expand...
Yes, but only in some regions. It depends where you live in Italy. Our region hasn't got there yet - my friend here had her first jab this week and she's 57.

It's a national vaccination plan, but the regions have a lot of leeway to tweak things.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Seems like a no-brainer. You’ll be so close to fully opened up by then anyway the economic impact of a short delay should be trivial.
Click to expand...

They're down to over 30s with the vaccines now so you'd think it'd be safer to just delay the remaining easing a bit and encourage outdoor activity now the weather is (sort of) accepting that winter was meant to end 3 months ago. I don't think people will accept facing tougher restrictions again which is what they risk as the other alternative...although with this government that's probably exactly what will happen.

I think ideally you open up fully after eveyrone has at least been offered a vaccine and anyone in the over 50 group who chose to has had the first and second dose, but that might just be a little too far off on the horizon. I don't think there's anything trivial about any delay economically at this point unfortunately. A lot of jobs are hanging by a thread as it is...although the easing of restrictions we've already had should go some way to helping that hopefully.
 
SilentWitness said:
Another protest in London today. :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

Was going to start a thread on this.

I'm very pro rights/protesting when it's needed, but I know people that go to these and its literally just become an excuse to go out at this point because the festival/gig they wanted to go to can't happen. They pay lip service to the cause or whether protesting about it actually makes any sense, but as soon as you engage them in any debate it becomes clear they know feck all about it, never mind believe in it enough to be at a protest. I mean if you go to a protest about not being allowed to protest, and no one stops you from protesting, what are you actually protesting about? All you're going to do is piss everyone off and end up actually getting protests banned or restricted. No one I've spoken to who went to the "kill the bill" protest, had actually read the bill they were protesting about.

Extinction Rebellion already made this into a problem when they decided that protesting didn't have to make any sense or have a logical point anymore, and could literally just be about pissing as many people off as possible. Now these covid generation idiots are just going to make it very easy for the government/police to interpret the bill originally intended to stop stupid people glueing themselves to a bridge/train/airport, as a "beat up protesters whenever you want" licence. On top of that they've probably managed to kill a lot of people over the past year with their infection spreading.

Honestly one of the main things the past year has exposed is just how much stupid there is on BOTH sides of the fence.
 
Last edited:
Late reaction but I was shocked to see how few people wore a mask in the Brentford vs Swansea game, and most of those who wore had worn it wrongly.
 
hmchan said:
Late reaction but I was shocked to see how few people wore a mask in the Brentford vs Swansea game, and most of those who wore had worn it wrongly.
Click to expand...

I think we're nearing the end of mask wearing now. I was in a small supermarket and half the people inside didn't have one on. Not even symbolically on their chin. Certainly none of the cahiers or store workers. The guard at the door wore one but wasn't stopping anyone else from entering without one.
 
Dumbstar said:
I think we're nearing the end of mask wearing now. I was in a small supermarket and half the people inside didn't have one on. Not even symbolically on their chin. Certainly none of the cahiers or store workers. The guard at the door wore one but wasn't stopping anyone else from entering without one.
Click to expand...
a number of supermarkets in the UK have just had plastic barrier around the cashier, I suppose it does keep them safe from direct germ contact but I don't know how effective it is against the airborn component.

In any case with falling cases and more people being vaccinated, fewer people are going to bother with masks. Many weren't bothering at the height of the pandemic.
 
Bars a being forced to close now in Manchester because of covid cases. What is the point in the most vulnerable having thier jab and being protected if we are going to shut up shop every time this happens?
 
fergies coat said:
Bars a being forced to close now in Manchester because of covid cases. What is the point in the most vulnerable having thier jab and being protected if we are going to shut up shop every time this happens?
Click to expand...
I thought they were closing because of positive cases in staff members, that led to the other staff getting instructions to self-isolate?
 
Has there been any research on whether the summer heat affects the spread of covid? Last summer here in Norway we basically went 3-4 months with almost no restrictions(apart from international travel and 1 meter distancing in bars etc). We had new reported covid cases every day, but things never really spiralled out of control. I wonder why that is?

If the heat does matter, then why has things gotten so out of control in India? Is it because of the mutations? Higher population density?
 
OleBoiii said:
If the heat does matter, then why has things gotten so out of control in India? Is it because of the mutations? Higher population density?
Click to expand...
All my colleagues in our BLR office have it or have had it. I asked about social distancing and the reply i got was "well it's not all that easy sometimes, especially at big events."

Plus the govt acted very late
 
OleBoiii said:
Has there been any research on whether the summer heat affects the spread of covid? Last summer here in Norway we basically went 3-4 months with almost no restrictions(apart from international travel and 1 meter distancing in bars etc). We had new reported covid cases every day, but things never really spiralled out of control. I wonder why that is?

If the heat does matter, then why has things gotten so out of control in India? Is it because of the mutations? Higher population density?
Click to expand...

Hard to unpick heat from behavioural changes. In summer the schools are closed, socialising happens outdoors, office and home windows are open etc etc
 
OleBoiii said:
Has there been any research on whether the summer heat affects the spread of covid? Last summer here in Norway we basically went 3-4 months with almost no restrictions(apart from international travel and 1 meter distancing in bars etc). We had new reported covid cases every day, but things never really spiralled out of control. I wonder why that is?

If the heat does matter, then why has things gotten so out of control in India? Is it because of the mutations? Higher population density?
Click to expand...

More outdoor activities, more open windows, no schools open.
 
OleBoiii said:
Has there been any research on whether the summer heat affects the spread of covid? Last summer here in Norway we basically went 3-4 months with almost no restrictions(apart from international travel and 1 meter distancing in bars etc). We had new reported covid cases every day, but things never really spiralled out of control. I wonder why that is?

If the heat does matter, then why has things gotten so out of control in India? Is it because of the mutations? Higher population density?
Click to expand...
I think as far as we can tell the weather matters more in behavioural terms. Warmer weather - more likely to be outdoors, windows open etc. Less likely to be indoors in confined, crowded or unventilated spaces. Unfortunately good weather doesn't protect you from overcrowded public transport, housing or busy, poorly ventilated workplaces.

For the UK, someone did a calculation on the weather effect:

I'd guess Norway would be similar, but with even lower population and housing density than the UK.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Hard to unpick heat from behavioural changes. In summer the schools are closed, socialising happens outdoors, office and home windows are open etc etc
Click to expand...

Eugenius said:
More outdoor activities, more open windows, no schools open.
Click to expand...

jojojo said:
I think as far as we can tell the weather matters more in behavioural terms. Warmer weather - more likely to be outdoors, windows open etc. Less likely to be indoors in confined, crowded or unventilated spaces. Unfortunately good weather doesn't protect you from overcrowded public transport, housing or busy, poorly ventilated workplaces.

For the UK, someone did a calculation on the weather effect:

I'd guess Norway would be similar, but with even lower population and housing density than the UK.
Click to expand...


That makes a lot of sense. People gathered in droves in parks but as long as it's outdoors I reckon the chance of catching covid is lower, even though the group is large? Public transportation was still pretty packed, though. And no one used masks. I also think most bars and restaurants in the capital were full during night hours, though with the 1 meter rule enforced.
 
Pogue Mahone said:


June 21st full reopening looking more and more unlikely. This fecking variant is the real deal.
Click to expand...

Grim. But with so much of the UK vaccinated how bad can it be? The vaccines are still proven to be very effective against it right? Just seems like we'll be in an endless cycle of lockdowns if these variants can STILL feck things up so much even with everyone vaccinated.
 
Massive Spanner said:
Grim. But with so much of the UK vaccinated how bad can it be? The vaccines are still proven to be very effective against it right? Just seems like we'll be in an endless cycle of lockdowns if these variants can STILL feck things up so much even with everyone vaccinated.
Click to expand...
I think it’s pretty clear by now that AZ vaccine is not as effective against these variants and hence the slight surge. Israel who used only Pfizer exclusively and had all the variants (including Indian) present in the country as well is not seeing any surge at all, in fact last I’ve seen they only recorded 5 daily cases or something like that.
 
Rajma said:
I think it’s pretty clear by now that AZ vaccine is not as effective against these variants and hence the slight surge. Israel who used only Pfizer exclusively and had all the variants (including Indian) present in the country as well is not seeing any surge at all, in fact last I’ve seen they only recorded 5 daily cases or something like that.
Click to expand...

Was chatting to a business colleague I know who lives in Israel the other day. He says covid is basically a complete non-issue for them. And not just because of all the other grim recent events in Israel/Gaza :(
 
Massive Spanner said:
Grim. But with so much of the UK vaccinated how bad can it be? The vaccines are still proven to be very effective against it right? Just seems like we'll be in an endless cycle of lockdowns if these variants can STILL feck things up so much even with everyone vaccinated.
Click to expand...

This variant won’t feck things up with everyone vaccinated. The concern is how much damage it can do before we get to that point. With vaccinated” meaning after receiving both doses of the vaccine.

Currently this only applies to 50% (I think?) of the UK population. 20% fully vaccinated in Ireland.
 
OleBoiii said:
Has there been any research on whether the summer heat affects the spread of covid? Last summer here in Norway we basically went 3-4 months with almost no restrictions(apart from international travel and 1 meter distancing in bars etc). We had new reported covid cases every day, but things never really spiralled out of control. I wonder why that is?

If the heat does matter, then why has things gotten so out of control in India? Is it because of the mutations? Higher population density?
Click to expand...

I don't think it's because of the mutation. Last summer was also things were pretty out of control and actually settled down a couple of months after summer.
 
Massive Spanner said:
Grim. But with so much of the UK vaccinated how bad can it be? The vaccines are still proven to be very effective against it right? Just seems like we'll be in an endless cycle of lockdowns if these variants can STILL feck things up so much even with everyone vaccinated.
Click to expand...
That's why everyone's eyes will be on Bolton etc. Right now it seems to be a race between outbreaks and the vaccine. In Bolton it looks like it's being brought under control, with the rate starting to fall again - but it's had vaccine buses, mass testing and a strong message from local government that they'll help people qualify for self-isolation financial support etc.

The thing is that "local factors" are a big deal and if vaccine coverage is as important as it looks then those early warning about cases in London could be a prelude to a sudden growth there, because London has way lower vaccine takeup than the rest of the country (including Bolton when it's numbers started to grow.

Bolton's hospital admissions were mostly in their 30s/40s and either unvaccinated (and ineligible) or they'd only recently become eligible for their first vaccine at the time they got infected. The cases in that age group, even the hospitalisations, aren't expected to turn into deaths, but they can easily fill additional wards and lead to non-covid cases getting cancelled again.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
This variant won’t feck things up with everyone vaccinated. The concern is how much damage it can do before we get to that point. With vaccinated” meaning after receiving both doses of the vaccine.

Currently this only applies to 50% (I think?) of the UK population. 20% fully vaccinated in Ireland.
Click to expand...
Gotcha. Thank feck we're mostly Pfizer then. Sweet, beautiful 4 week gap Pfizer.
 
A vaccine takeup chart of the UK. Basically they're looking at an area's age profile and comparing it to the actual vaccine takeup in the area.

 
jojojo said:
A vaccine takeup chart of the UK. Basically they're looking at an area's age profile and comparing it to the actual vaccine takeup in the area.

Click to expand...

That's interesting. Am I reading it right that the two worst affected areas for the recent surge in infection, Bolton and now Blackburn (with Preston just taking off) actually have a higher take-up of vaccine than the national average? If so that's contrary to what a lot of people are saying up here, namely 'it's the indians and pakistanis, they won't take the vaccine'.
 
Rajma said:
I think it’s pretty clear by now that AZ vaccine is not as effective against these variants and hence the slight surge. Israel who used only Pfizer exclusively and had all the variants (including Indian) present in the country as well is not seeing any surge at all, in fact last I’ve seen they only recorded 5 daily cases or something like that.
Click to expand...

While it's true that AZ is less effective against the variant it seems, I'm going to stick my neck out and say that the movement of people between India and the UK is going to be significantly higher than it is between India and Israel (or indeed India and any other Western country other than the USA).
 
africanspur said:
While it's true that AZ is less effective against the variant it seems, I'm going to stick my neck out and say that the movement of people between India and the UK is going to be significantly higher than it is between India and Israel (or indeed India and any other Western country other than the USA).
Click to expand...
You could at least tag your fellow spurs fan, when you are talking about him.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.