We have had quite a few people who have caught SARS-CoV-2 when in hotel quarantine. So aerosol transmission does occur.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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We have had quite a few people who have caught SARS-CoV-2 when in hotel quarantine. So aerosol transmission does occur.
Took them long enough. Will we finally stop being obsessed with clean surfaces and objects, rather than ensuring proper masking, social distancing and proper indoor ventilation?
I posted this article back in November. Cynically, I could suggest the reason why airborne was played down and surface cleaning, hand washing etc was played up was because of early PPE shortages in hospitals. For it to continue this long is probably a mix of inertia and the fact that things like AC systems with inadequate filters, windows that don't open etc are more difficult to fix than telling people they should have sanitised their shopping trolley.
https://english.elpais.com/society/...he-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html
So if you're planning to restart socialising (particularly if you or one of them is vulnerable to infection) it's worth knowing what to look out for. In general if you're meeting indoors - look at shorter visits, ventilation, turn the background music down so you don't have to shout, avoid sitting face to face - it all may help. Facemasks help of course, but on some occasions the other rules may be easier to apply.
Take the specific numbers it mentions in that article as coming with lots of "more or less" provisos, but the broad sweep is probably accurate.
https://english.elpais.com/society/...he-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html
So if you're planning to restart socialising (particularly if you or one of them is vulnerable to infection) it's worth knowing what to look out for. In general if you're meeting indoors - look at shorter visits, ventilation, turn the background music down so you don't have to shout, avoid sitting face to face - it all may help. Facemasks help of course, but on some occasions the other rules may be easier to apply.
Take the specific numbers it mentions in that article as coming with lots of "more or less" provisos, but the broad sweep is probably accurate.
Here you suspect that the Feds want to downplay aerosol transmission so they don't have to take responsibility for quarantine leaving the states with little choice but to use hotels.
I would imagine the much more virulent new variants are the main reason behind the moving goalposts. The “close contact” referred to by the CDC was probably needed to pass on enough of a viral load of the original wuhan strain to infect anyone else.
You used to need to be right up in somebody’s face to get enough virus on board to catch covid. Or swipe a big goop of body fluids off a surface and into your eyes/nose. Now it takes a much smaller dose of viruses to trigger an infection we’re at a stage where it’s possible to infect other people over greater distances, via tiny aerosolised particles.
That El Pais article is from October last year. It would be interesting to see it rehashed based on the transmissibility of the new variants.
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Could be. But the early super-spreader events all suggested that airborne infection was viable - particularly those studies on restaurants and choir practices etc.
I can easily believe that those events got lost in the noise once widespread community transmission really kicked off though.
Interestingly we're back at that question again now as infection rates fall - like the school in Long Eaton that suddenly had 100 cases (and at least 200 now identified as part of that cluster) last week. If that's not the heating system or a mass choir practice etc then I'd be really surprised.
I don’t think it’s binary. I’m sure, given a very particular set of circumstances, it’s always been possible for infection to be passed on via airborne transmission. But there’s an increased focus on it now the virus has dramatically increased its ability to gain a foothold in a new host. Which seems reasonable to me.
We’re very definitely up against a different virus, in terms of transmissibility, these last six months. So makes sense that we might need to change the public health advice to reflect this modified threat.
I kind of see it as the other way round. The emphasis should have been on aerosol spread from much earlier and the new variants (and lower general spread) have forced the issue to the front of the queue. Super-spreader individuals and events have always been the great randomisers in the R number debate.
I blame that movie, Contagion and all those images of fomite spread
To be fair the, meet outside, "open the windows" advice was always there (in the UK at least) but it tended to get lost in the other advice about cleaning surfaces, groceries, deliveries etc. It then drowned in the silly debates about whether it was ok to sit on a bench and drink a coffee during a walk in the park, and actions like chaining off play equipment. Personally, I suspect some of the outdoor rules made indoor rule-breaking more common - but that may be influenced by what I've seen rather than what's generally happened.
I kind of see it as the other way round. The emphasis should have been on aerosol spread from much earlier and the new variants (and lower general spread) have forced the issue to the front of the queue. Super-spreader individuals and events have always been the great randomisers in the R number debate.
I blame that movie, Contagion and all those images of fomite spread
To be fair the, meet outside, "open the windows" advice was always there (in the UK at least) but it tended to get lost in the other advice about cleaning surfaces, groceries, deliveries etc. It then drowned in the silly debates about whether it was ok to sit on a bench and drink a coffee during a walk in the park, and actions like chaining off play equipment. Personally, I suspect some of the outdoor rules made indoor rule-breaking more common - but that may be influenced by what I've seen rather than what's generally happened.
The messaging in Ireland has been very similar to the Uk re ventilation, outdoors over indoor socialising etc. going back to this time last year.
There’s never been any formal advice re cleaning deliveries or groceries. That seemed to be mainly down to very scared people choosing to use an abundance of caution. Surface cleaning probably still makes sense. One of those things that’s easy to do and has no obvious downsides.
I definitely think the severe restrictions on outdoor activities have been too cautious. Even in the face of these new variants. Locked up playgrounds, road blocks on the way to the beach and a ban on kids playing sport always seemed over the top and even more so with hindsight.
No covid deaths reported in England today. Or in Ireland (North and South). A nice wee milestone.
Hospital numbers continuing to fall too, which is awesome. Hopefully today's easing of restrictions doesn't bollock anything up.
I’m feeling very optimistic this week. First time in ages. Schools/colleges etc closing in a month’s time will add to the vaccine effect. We should have a decent summer. Bring it on.
I wonder what effect the next phase of the vaccines will have going forward? A lot of the most vulnerable are already fully vaccinated and most over 60's have had their first dose, so surely it'll be diminishing returns from here on in won't it? Clearly that's had a massive impact thus far.
It’s barely touched the daily case numbers, with the vast majority in people too young for a vaccine yet. That will be the next improvement you’d hope to see. Or at least keep them more or less where they are while society opens back up.
21 year olds getting first jab in Anglesey now , things are much more like normal now , schools open , people visiting each other , definitely feels like we have cracked it here now .
Balls. From feeling very optimistic to stressed all over again. In the space of 10 minutes. Thank you Twitter
Balls. From feeling very optimistic to stressed all over again. In the space of 10 minutes. Thank you Twitter
Just saw that myself. Feels like everyone is just ignoring it, because things are temporarily looking good.
The graph reminds me of when the Kent variant was kicking off and loads of people (including me!) were trying to downplay the significance.
Balls. From feeling very optimistic to stressed all over again. In the space of 10 minutes. Thank you Twitter
I saw that earlier on. The hope I'm clinging to is that when you look at the case heat maps in those high rate areas the dominant group are the under 25s (particularly secondary school age) - which might suggest that we haven't seen evidence for vaccine evasion so far. The flipside is that if it is a variant that's more dangerous for kids than the original variant (which has been suggested by some reports from India) then we may be about to swap one pandemic for another one. Let's hope the vaccines can keep it suppressed.
While I’m already on a massive downer might as well check those reports out! Where did you read that?
Side note, they must surely know whether each of those “Indian variant” cases have been vaccinated or not. Which is information that should be shared with the rest of the world asap.
Balls. From feeling very optimistic to stressed all over again. In the space of 10 minutes. Thank you Twitter
But surely with most vulnerable vaccinated, case numbers aren't altogether indicative of what they once were.
Obviously not ideal, but the main issue will be if this sees spikes in ICU admissions.
Here's one for Bolton:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Bolton
To get the daily cases click the "data" button on the Daily graph.
The heat map is interactive so you can zoom in on this week's tests, and see where the results are coming from. The pessimistic view would be that they're the tip of the iceberg because they may correspond to routine LFTs in schools and their families/neighbours haven't been tested yet.
Bit of grim reading. Can’t copy the full article whilst on my phone.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/10/who...are|com.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
A World Health Organization official said Monday it is reclassifying the highly contagious triple-mutant Covid variant spreading in India as a “variant of concern,” indicating that it’s become a global health threat.
Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO’s technical lead for Covid-19, said the agency will provide more details in its weekly situation report on the pandemic Tuesday but added that the variant, known as B.1.617, has been found in preliminary studies to spread more easily than the original virus and there is some evidence it may able to evade vaccines.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/10/who...are|com.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard
A World Health Organization official said Monday it is reclassifying the highly contagious triple-mutant Covid variant spreading in India as a “variant of concern,” indicating that it’s become a global health threat.
Maria Van Kerkhove, the WHO’s technical lead for Covid-19, said the agency will provide more details in its weekly situation report on the pandemic Tuesday but added that the variant, known as B.1.617, has been found in preliminary studies to spread more easily than the original virus and there is some evidence it may able to evade vaccines.
Sorry, just realised you highlighted the kids bit. I think it's just twitter noise at present. It's easy for a doctor to see the odd cases in kids and turn them into a pattern. It's the usual things when people look at the graphs of hospitalisations/deaths by age drawn up until, they see a zero in the under 16s column whereas they're actually looking at a small number compared to the other figures - so any illness is more than a doctor expects.
Glass is definitely half empty in this thread 
Ah. Ok. Cool. I remember similar concerns in the early days of the Kent variant. When you go through an explosive surge like UK then/India now it can be hard to see the wood for the trees.
Only a small story today but I read Uruguay is having a few issues now after largely being unscathed in last year compared to many parts of the world. Hospitals filling up and Brazilian variant being blamed.
This is still going to be causing significant disruption for first half of 2022 isn't it? Just needs a very elusive variant to get roaming around the world once travel significantly returns and day to day life will remain frustrating.
As ever hope I'm wrong!
This is still going to be causing significant disruption for first half of 2022 isn't it? Just needs a very elusive variant to get roaming around the world once travel significantly returns and day to day life will remain frustrating.
As ever hope I'm wrong!
Vaccines are the main potential offset to that, and I know that the situations in Chile and Seychelles cause some concern because they had achieved a decent level of vaccinations and still saw case counts accelerate. But without vaccination I would describe covid as being something that will visit each society almost inevitably, and more than once. Only very tough measures like those in Australia/NZ seem capable of almost keeping it out entirely.
Covid Twitter has - as usual - split along the usual party lines about these new data showing the Indian variant getting a foothold in the UK. Zero covid crew are losing their minds and accusing the UK government of sleepwalking into another apocalypse (if I never read another tweet from one more epidemiologist who thinks they’re a virologist that will be too soon). The Chemical Ali crew are, of course, taking the piss out of them and pretending this is a big fuss about nothing.
I’m honestly struggling to work out how significant this really is. I would have to say potentially very significant indeed but am reasonably hopeful this is a big fuss about not much.
This bloke seems fairly balanced about it all and better informed than most.
I’m honestly struggling to work out how significant this really is. I would have to say potentially very significant indeed but am reasonably hopeful this is a big fuss about not much.
This bloke seems fairly balanced about it all and better informed than most.
Another excellent thread on the same issue.
Thanks for those pogue. Seems that hopefully the vaccines work against this new variant.
It is likely to be due to the vaccines they take.
China has had only 4 deaths from covid since April 2020, apparently.
How is vaccination going in Ireland? In the UK the vaccination levels are obviously a major driver of the good figures so I'm assuming Ireland isn't far behind.
We have done very well so far which is largely down to the state governments. Getting out of this is now the tough bit as the Federal government are incompetent and bough far too few different vaccines as they had in their head an announcement that UQ vaccine (AU developed but now failed) and AZ (AU produced but now only for the over 50's) would be given to all by mid year. They had 12 huge flags ready for the PR stunt. Now we only have a dribble of Pfizer to vaccinate the majority of the population. The target of everyone by October is now looking like October 2023 unless other vaccines come on line or we get more Pfizer or actually try to order some Moderna (a year ago would have been sensible). So the feds may keep us locked internationally until after the next election (about a year away) so we don't have Australian fatalities that are entirely their fault.
I can understand why. Better to know what we’re fighting than sticking your head in the sand and complaining laterGlass is definitely half empty in this thread
30% done I believe
We are far behind, to be honest. Although almost all our most vulnerable have been vaccinated (all the over 60s plus any age with co-morbidities) which has emptied out hospitals and brought the deaths right down. Currently in that awkward situation where we have enough unvaccinated to still have a huge surge if we open up very quickly but might be able to stop the hospitals being overwhelmed, if we’re lucky.
Thankfully case numbers are amongst the lowest in Europe thanks to one of the longest, most rigorous lockdowns. Although schools have been open for a few months now without much of a negative effect. Which is good.