SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Pogue Mahone said:
What’s happening in the US anyway? Youngest wait the longest?

Ireland seems to be a real outlier with the 18-35s ahead of 35-50s. It seems like a sensible approach to me. Was expecting more countries to go down the same route. Especially when you consider how some of the biggest clusters have been at universities.
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Currently they’re still working their way through Phase 1B.
I hear Florida is doing it differently but it’s Florida so .....

In CA as of yesterday they've administered 8m doses already.

Phase 1A
Healthcare workers and long-term care residents
Members of this group remain a first priority for vaccination. They've got most or all of this done.

Phase 1B
Seniors and workers in certain sectors*
People 65 and older as well as those who work in education, childcare, emergency services and food and agriculture. - They're flying through this phase.

Phase 1C
Those with disabilities or at high risk
Starting March 15, people ages 16 to 64 with severe underlying medical conditions will be eligible. Age-based groups will follow.

There are now roughly 13 million Californians eligible to receive a COVID-19 vaccination. On March 15, an additional 4 million to 6 million residents with severe underlying medical conditions will qualify.
Because no vaccine has been approved for people younger than 16, roughly 8 million people, or 20% of the state’s population, are not eligible.

https://www.latimes.com/projects/ca.../covid-19-vaccines-distribution/#availability
 
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Pogue Mahone said:
What does that even mean? You don’t think the virus works well enough? If so, why should you be able to go about your business as normal after you’re vaccinated?

If you’re genuinely worried about this issue then allowing society to ease off the social distancing gradually, one cohort at a time, is the best approach anyway. Much safer than everyone all getting back to normal all at once.

I’m finding the responses on this really odd. Seems to be straight up jealousy. Dare I say it, slightly immature?!
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The elderly are the most vulnerable, but that doesn't mean young people are totally immune from it. They have a lower chance of dying but it can still cause real problems. Once the vaccinated cohorts are safe from the virus (but as far as we know can still transmit it), it is not fair that they can be free to go out and spread it as much as they like, putting those who are still unvaccinated at risk, even if it is a lower risk. Everybody should be careful until we are all safe.


What you will find with a vaccine passport is that those who are vaccinated feel invulnerable and ignore the rules, and in return everybody else will see that and think why should they follow rules if half the population doesn't have to.
 
11101 said:
The elderly are the most vulnerable, but that doesn't mean young people are totally immune from it. They have a lower chance of dying but it can still cause real problems. Once the vaccinated cohorts are safe from the virus (but as far as we know can still transmit it), it is not fair that they can be free to go out and spread it as much as they like, putting those who are still unvaccinated at risk, even if it is a lower risk. Everybody should be careful until we are all safe.


What you will find with a vaccine passport is that those who are vaccinated feel invulnerable and ignore the rules, and in return everybody else will see that and think why should they follow rules if half the population doesn't have to.
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You're speaking for an awful lot of people there.
 
345 deaths today compared to 533 last Friday. Also infections down to 8523 from last Friday's 12,000 odd. Very positive week.
 
Dumbstar said:
345 deaths today compared to 533 last Friday. Also infections down to 8523 from last Friday's 12,000 odd. Very positive week.
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Not as positive as last week though, so that’s good.
 
I'm not particularly against vaccine passports on principal. But after the last few years in the UK, the prospect of a bunch of 50+ year olds posting their selfies of pints in the pub on Facebook while 20 year olds are barred would be fairly likely to add to inter-generational resentment that's already running at pretty worrying levels.
 
Vaccine passports are a ridiculous idea. It'll somehow cost us a feckin fortune to implement like everything else the government have spent money on.

Then itll be people who have been vaccinated somehow can't log in / download their passport or something, or the businesses systems won't work as they should and it'll all be a shit show.

Add in the government will somehow add a fee on the businesses for the system.

I highly doubt it would be a bit of paper/card that could be lost easily, even if it is, they're easily forged.

It's upto people to get vaccinated or not, the uptake is around 80% anyway isn't it? So if 80% of the country is vaccinated that should be fine anyway. The other 20%, some have probably already had it so built up antibodies anyway, others will never come into contact with it, and some will get it but those vaccinated will be protected.

They're just arsing abiut pretending like this is a good idea to look as if they're doing something. Then it'll be a "we justify this tax hike because our vaccine passports scheme cost £4billion".

Call me cynical, but meh, it's stupid and won't benefit anybody or any business in reality.
 
lynchie said:
I'm not particularly against vaccine passports on principal. But after the last few years in the UK, the prospect of a bunch of 50+ year olds posting their selfies of pints in the pub on Facebook while 20 year olds are barred would be fairly likely to add to inter-generational resentment that's already running at pretty worrying levels.
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In the UK, that would be a short-lived differential though. Young people will be able to get the vaccine before the summer's over, I'm pretty sure.
 
One of my brothers in the US got his first shot of Pfizer. He’s got heart related issues like me. It was given to him in a Kruger pharmacy
 
One Night Only said:
Vaccine passports are a ridiculous idea. It'll somehow cost us a feckin fortune to implement like everything else the government have spent money on.

Then itll be people who have been vaccinated somehow can't log in / download their passport or something, or the businesses systems won't work as they should and it'll all be a shit show.

Add in the government will somehow add a fee on the businesses for the system.

I highly doubt it would be a bit of paper/card that could be lost easily, even if it is, they're easily forged.

It's upto people to get vaccinated or not, the uptake is around 80% anyway isn't it? So if 80% of the country is vaccinated that should be fine anyway. The other 20%, some have probably already had it so built up antibodies anyway, others will never come into contact with it, and some will get it but those vaccinated will be protected.

They're just arsing abiut pretending like this is a good idea to look as if they're doing something. Then it'll be a "we justify this tax hike because our vaccine passports scheme cost £4billion".

Call me cynical, but meh, it's stupid and won't benefit anybody or any business in reality.
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They should have ensured it was part of the track and trace app, sort of like when you scan your phone/check in paper going through the airport. So when you get your jab, your individual code from track and trace/QR Code gets inputted/scanned and it updates your track and trace and this is what you show, input or scan when going through the airport at your chosen destination.
 
giggs-beckham said:
Why is the rate of case decline slowing down.
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There's a good piece in the MEN on it. Essential workers and those in precarious employment having to go out and mix with others is likely a big part of why rates in some places seem to never come down as far. Hopefully the evidence that the vaccines are cutting transmission can help with the push to keep the numbers dropping.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.c...-news/north-south-divide-covid-rates-19918490
 
lynchie said:
There's a good piece in the MEN on it. Essential workers and those in precarious employment having to go out and mix with others is likely a big part of why rates in some places seem to never come down as far. Hopefully the evidence that the vaccines are cutting transmission can help with the push to keep the numbers dropping.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.c...-news/north-south-divide-covid-rates-19918490
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You’d also wonder if differences in vaccine uptake between different regions could be a factor. If not now, then soon. Is that data available?
 
Pogue Mahone said:
You’d also wonder if differences in vaccine uptake between different regions could be a factor. If not now, then soon. Is that data available?
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It is, but I don't think the publicly available data is at a granular enough level to link to particular areas. There is substantial evidence that there's less uptake in a number of BAME communities, and you can infer something by linking that to local demographics, but it's a problem without an obvious good solution. Someone suggested sending vaccination teams door to door, but I think that might just make things worse - if you're already skeptical, strangers banging on your door is probably not that reassuring.
 
pascell said:
They should have ensured it was part of the track and trace app, sort of like when you scan your phone/check in paper going through the airport. So when you get your jab, your individual code from track and trace/QR Code gets inputted/scanned and it updates your track and trace and this is what you show, input or scan when going through the airport at your chosen destination.
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Obviously that was too simple for them, they like to go arse first with everything and plan nothing. That app is garbage anyway. They love giving themselves a pat on the back and saying it works wonderfully but in reality it doesn't.
 
lynchie said:
It is, but I don't think the publicly available data is at a granular enough level to link to particular areas. There is substantial evidence that there's less uptake in a number of BAME communities, and you can infer something by linking that to local demographics, but it's a problem without an obvious good solution. Someone suggested sending vaccination teams door to door, but I think that might just make things worse - if you're already skeptical, strangers banging on your door is probably not that reassuring.
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It’s going to be a really important but really tough nut to crack. I guess you just have to engage with local community leaders and go from there.
 
Sparky Rhiwabon said:
I think there are a lot of problems with vaccine passports

It discriminates on various fronts, for example-

Against people of ethnic minority, who are less likely to take up the vaccine for cultural and historical reasons
Against people with health conditions which makes it difficult to take the vaccine
Against younger people on the basis of age
Against people who may choose not to take the vaccine for a variety of reasons including distrust of government, phobia of injections, logistical difficulties, etc
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To be honest, I'm struggling a bit at the moment to feel that much sympathy for the first group. I understand mistrust of authority but go and educate yourself, especially when it disproportionately affects your community. I've seen groups of African, Indian and Phillipino nurses at work huddled round videos of some random quacks talking about how the vaccine is a ploy by white people to control us/ sterilise us. I engage as best I can but honestly its infuriating. Of course the PH approach needs to be much more than just general annoyance but its still annoying.

Younger people on the age bothers me for now but when we get to the stage where everyone has been offered the vaccine, if you've decided to turn it down, then the sympathy level again drops down quite a bit. Was talking to someone last week who is talking about how she isn't going to have the vaccine (in her 30s) as she believes in natural solutions to things and doesn't want to take medicines and seek medical help because nature always has the way. I bit my lip about the fact she is currently seeking the most medical way to have a baby at the moment as nature has decided that her and her husband aren't to have a baby in the normal way. What can you do?
 
Pogue Mahone said:
You’d also wonder if differences in vaccine uptake between different regions could be a factor. If not now, then soon. Is that data available?
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Right now, we know that a lower percentage of the population have been vaccinated in London compared to the north. London's figures have fallen faster and further than the North.

As time goes on, I think we'll see particular areas struggling over vaccination take-up, but I don't think that's what we're seeing in case numbers at the moment. It could affect some areas more than others on the future, but I think you'd need to have vaccination data on a really local level to see that.

The broad current pattern seems to be similar to the September one - some combination of jobs that require you to go to a workplace, precarious/grey economy employment, use of informal care for kids, and insufficient support for self isolation etc. Throw in household unit sizes and that's probably the current story.
 
In regards to people not taking the vaccine, it's upto them totally, hasn't this been massively rushed through anyway? Even I've got slight reservations about it due to how quickly it got approved when there was talk of it normally taking much much longer.

I'd probably get it anyway, but I can see why some won't. I ain't an anti Vax nut job who thinks bill gates wants to montior how many wanks I have a day.
 
africanspur said:
To be honest, I'm struggling a bit at the moment to feel that much sympathy for the first group. I understand mistrust of authority but go and educate yourself, especially when it disproportionately affects your community. I've seen groups of African, Indian and Phillipino nurses at work huddled round videos of some random quacks talking about how the vaccine is a ploy by white people to control us/ sterilise us. I engage as best I can but honestly its infuriating. Of course the PH approach needs to be much more than just general annoyance but its still annoying.

Younger people on the age bothers me for now but when we get to the stage where everyone has been offered the vaccine, if you've decided to turn it down, then the sympathy level again drops down quite a bit. Was talking to someone last week who is talking about how she isn't going to have the vaccine (in her 30s) as she believes in natural solutions to things and doesn't want to take medicines and seek medical help because nature always has the way. I bit my lip about the fact she is currently seeking the most medical way to have a baby at the moment as nature has decided that her and her husband aren't to have a baby in the normal way. What can you do?
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I'm slightly forceful with it now and am finding out how to deal with it better because I have knowledge of the nonsense and therefore know how to combat it better.

I work at a practice with a lot of south asian patients, we went on a popular local radio station to answer some misconceptions. Changed a lot of minds, more than we thought we would. The misinformation around this thing is insane spread around whatsapp but your word and standing as a medical professional does carry more weight than you think.

Plandemic, great reset etc. Some of that shit honestly has more snazzy production values, infographics and voiceovers than even the loose change 9-11 inside job documentaries. To people not familiar with conspiracy theorism it can be a bit of a rabbit hole to fall down under. I've annoyingly had a few medic and scientist friends who are vaccine hesitant. I think we need more effective ways to combat misinformation too, they had load of famous BAME celebs talking slightly monotonously and dispassionately I just didn't think would cut it (as good as their intentions were).
 
A big problem I feel also is that aside from a smallish group of adults (although slightly larger number of over 65s) apart from the flu many didn't have to get a vaccine for any reasons. Most of the ones they got were as kids or for their kids (some of the newer ones are for teens) so they were ripe for misinformers to target to induce hesitancy.
 
One Night Only said:
In regards to people not taking the vaccine, it's upto them totally, hasn't this been massively rushed through anyway? Even I've got slight reservations about it due to how quickly it got approved when there was talk of it normally taking much much longer.

I'd probably get it anyway, but I can see why some won't. I ain't an anti Vax nut job who thinks bill gates wants to montior how many wanks I have a day.
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They usually take years but most of that is waiting for funding/approval, submitting requests etc. With Covid, the whole world is right on it throwing as much money on it as possible so the waiting times have been massively reduced and there's more volunteers than some random vaccine.
 
One Night Only said:
In regards to people not taking the vaccine, it's upto them totally, hasn't this been massively rushed through anyway? Even I've got slight reservations about it due to how quickly it got approved when there was talk of it normally taking much much longer.
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No. There are no extra safety concerns in comparison to any other vaccine. They went through normal phase 3 testing.
 
RonaldoVII said:
They usually take years but most of that is waiting for funding/approval, submitting requests etc. With Covid, the whole world is right on it throwing as much money on it as possible so the waiting times have been massively reduced and there's more volunteers than some random vaccine.
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Agreed. No amount of funding can replace long term trials though.
 
lynchie said:
There's a good piece in the MEN on it. Essential workers and those in precarious employment having to go out and mix with others is likely a big part of why rates in some places seem to never come down as far. Hopefully the evidence that the vaccines are cutting transmission can help with the push to keep the numbers dropping.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.c...-news/north-south-divide-covid-rates-19918490
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Wouldn't that have always been the case as in why would we see a gradual levelling out as we are now. It's probably because people are starting to take the piss a bit more as is predicted in behaviour models or more testing.
 
With regards to vaccine passports, I can see places like bars/restaurants and stadiums being split into restricted and non-restricted areas, with the former maintaining current levels of social distancing and masks.
 
I'd think a certain level of social distancing albeit smaller and mask wearing will be maintained for the rest of the year. I'll certainly keep wearing a mask in some public places.
 
giggs-beckham said:
Wouldn't that have always been the case as in why would we see a gradual levelling out as we are now. It's probably because people are starting to take the piss a bit more as is predicted in behaviour models or more testing.
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Not at all. With the lockdown, most people have seriously reduced their contact with others, which is why cases came down rapidly. But there's a baseline of people who can't do that because of their circumstances, and so there's a low point that we'll continue to struggle to drop below, unless we actually pay people to stay home with proper isolation support and temporarily close some less critical businesses.
 
lynchie said:
Not at all. With the lockdown, most people have seriously reduced their contact with others, which is why cases came down rapidly. But there's a baseline of people who can't do that because of their circumstances, and so there's a low point that we'll continue to struggle to drop below, unless we actually pay people to stay home with proper isolation support and temporarily close some less critical businesses.
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Don’t you think this lockdown is different to the previous ones? It is where I live. Shops, restaurants etc all closed but much more traffic on the roads, offices are busier, more people are out and about and there’s generally more willingness to bend the rules.

I don’t blame us though. Everyone is so jaded by this whole thing. Plus when we hear about the most vulnerable being vaccinated it makes the pandemic seem less threatening. Combine that with a more virulent, more contagious virus and you can see why the downwards slops of cases is a hell of a lot bumpier and less steep than it was during previous lockdowns.

That’s what’s happening in Ireland anyway. We’re taking a longer to get numbers right down than we have done in previous lockdowns. With a less constant downward trend. Numbers even came down quicker when we tried regional partial lockdowns with schools remaining open.

How does this UK decline compare?
 
lynchie said:
Not at all. With the lockdown, most people have seriously reduced their contact with others, which is why cases came down rapidly. But there's a baseline of people who can't do that because of their circumstances, and so there's a low point that we'll continue to struggle to drop below, unless we actually pay people to stay home with proper isolation support and temporarily close some less critical businesses.
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I see so there's a natural curve towards that base line.
 
africanspur said:
To be honest, I'm struggling a bit at the moment to feel that much sympathy for the first group. I understand mistrust of authority but go and educate yourself, especially when it disproportionately affects your community. I've seen groups of African, Indian and Phillipino nurses at work huddled round videos of some random quacks talking about how the vaccine is a ploy by white people to control us/ sterilise us. I engage as best I can but honestly its infuriating. Of course the PH approach needs to be much more than just general annoyance but its still annoying.

Younger people on the age bothers me for now but when we get to the stage where everyone has been offered the vaccine, if you've decided to turn it down, then the sympathy level again drops down quite a bit. Was talking to someone last week who is talking about how she isn't going to have the vaccine (in her 30s) as she believes in natural solutions to things and doesn't want to take medicines and seek medical help because nature always has the way. I bit my lip about the fact she is currently seeking the most medical way to have a baby at the moment as nature has decided that her and her husband aren't to have a baby in the normal way. What can you do?
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I read recently that the reason a lot of Muslims are not taking the vaccine is that they are being told that the white man is putting pork in it.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Don’t you think this lockdown is different to the previous ones? It is where I live. Shops, restaurants etc all closed but much more traffic on the roads, offices are busier, more people are out and about and there’s generally more willingness to bend the rules.

I don’t blame us though. Everyone is so jaded by this whole thing. Plus when we hear about the most vulnerable being vaccinated it makes the pandemic seem less threatening. Combine that with a more virulent, more contagious virus and you can see why the downwards slops of cases is a hell of a lot bumpier and less steep than it was during previous lockdowns.

That’s what’s happening in Ireland anyway. We’re taking a longer to get numbers right down than we have done in previous lockdowns. With a less constant downward trend. Numbers even came down quicker when we tried regional partial lockdowns with schools remaining open.

How does this UK decline compare?
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I do think it's more relaxed than the first lockdown, but cases in the UK have been coming down steadily. It'll always flatten out, partly because of that baseline I mentioned, and partly because that's just what exponential decay looks like, but I think there's only been one day in the last fortnight with higher cases than the week before.
 
lynchie said:
I do think it's more relaxed than the first lockdown, but cases in the UK have been coming down steadily. It'll always flatten out, partly because of that baseline I mentioned, and partly because that's just what exponential decay looks like, but I think there's only been one day in the last fortnight with higher cases than the week before.
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True that. With a much higher peak, that helps explain why cases are plateauing at about ten times higher than previous plateaus.
 
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