Has happened here for quite some time.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Where I am you definitely wouldn’t think there is a lockdown- barring lack of school traffic the roads are busy as ever. Almost everyone seems to be wearing a mask in fairness
Yeah, I’d say there’s some truth to that theory. Just look at historical pandemics. They also created these big waves, without any vaccinations or coordinated lockdowns to cause each wave to subside. Makes sense that the virus picks off all the low hanging fruit and eventually runs out of potential hosts.
Last edited:
454 deaths today compared to 678 last Thursday. Sorry don't have other numbers, this is the only one I've been interested in.
The case data in the UK is interesting, does look to show signs of the beginning of a plateau in the positive cases. One to watch over the next couple of weeks, as they may have to look at accepting a level of case load that will be amongst the population as society opens up.
A plateau implies you’re still at the peak? Surely you’d want to be well into a decline before talking about acceptable caseloads?
Wrong term, then a levelling off on the numbers. The steepness of the decline in cases appears to be slowing.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
There is some goal/target of getting down to a low caseload number before re-opening, In a couple of weeks it could be a struggle to see how they're going to achieve that in the time frames based on that view there.
Ah. Gotcha. We experienced something similar in Ireland. Big slow down in the initial decline. Much more so than in previous lockdowns. I put it down to a combination of lockdown fatigue and this annoyingly infectious new variant (90% dominant now)
This account tweets covid news from same day in 2020. Some of it makes you want to scream at how badly this was all handled
To be fair he said that this was what he was told at the time. He addressed it in an interview where he said that he changed his perspective when more evidence was presented to him. We shouldn't criticise people for changing their opinion once they have more information.
I meant just in general. The account is like a slow motion car crash
he cautioned against masks much later than this.
It divided (expert) opinions for a long time. I remember listening to very smart ID physicians who made a compelling case that masks, inexpertly used, could actually increase transmission.
The consensus shifted over time but that’s the nature of science.
Some absolutely amazing news coming out this evening.
The most significant of those is the impact on transmission. A glimpse of a possible end to most social distancing rules in the future.
So numbers calling in ireland everywhere apart from...
you guessed it, my Fukin village
you guessed it, my Fukin village
Craggy Island?
Some absolutely fantastic news there indeed. And something I haven’t seen mentioned is the gift of a new meme template in this tweet.
Excess mortality in Europe 2020
(Comparison with 2016-2019 levels)
Liechtenstein: 20,8 %
Spain: 18,9 %
Poland: 18,7 %
Slovakia: 18,5 %
Italy: 17,4 %
Belgium: 16,7 %
Czech: 16,6 %
Bulgaria: 15,1 %
Britain & N. Ireland: 15,1 %
Switzerland: 13,0 %
Malta: 12,6 %
Lithuania: 12,3 %
Holland: 11,6 %
Romania: 11,1 %
Austria: 11,1 %
Portugal: 11,0 %
Slovakia: 10,5 %
Luxembourg: 10,4 %
France: 10,4 %
Cyprus: 9,2 %
Croatia: 9,1 %
Hungary: 8,1 %
Sweden: 7,6 %
Greece: 7,5 %
Germany: 5,3 %
Estonia: 3,1 %
Finland: 2,7 %
Iceland: 1,6 %
Denmark: 1,6 %
Latvia: 0,4 %
Norway: -0,4 %
Source: Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, data from Eurostat, University of Oxford och SCB.
Appears a fair bit of under-reporting even in Europe; noticeable that Belgium don’t quite stick out the same in this list.
Hopefully vaccines will see a year or two of lower than normal levels of mortality now. Fingers crossed, some good stats this week have improved my downbeat mood.
(Comparison with 2016-2019 levels)
Liechtenstein: 20,8 %
Spain: 18,9 %
Poland: 18,7 %
Slovakia: 18,5 %
Italy: 17,4 %
Belgium: 16,7 %
Czech: 16,6 %
Bulgaria: 15,1 %
Britain & N. Ireland: 15,1 %
Switzerland: 13,0 %
Malta: 12,6 %
Lithuania: 12,3 %
Holland: 11,6 %
Romania: 11,1 %
Austria: 11,1 %
Portugal: 11,0 %
Slovakia: 10,5 %
Luxembourg: 10,4 %
France: 10,4 %
Cyprus: 9,2 %
Croatia: 9,1 %
Hungary: 8,1 %
Sweden: 7,6 %
Greece: 7,5 %
Germany: 5,3 %
Estonia: 3,1 %
Finland: 2,7 %
Iceland: 1,6 %
Denmark: 1,6 %
Latvia: 0,4 %
Norway: -0,4 %
Source: Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, data from Eurostat, University of Oxford och SCB.
Appears a fair bit of under-reporting even in Europe; noticeable that Belgium don’t quite stick out the same in this list.
Hopefully vaccines will see a year or two of lower than normal levels of mortality now. Fingers crossed, some good stats this week have improved my downbeat mood.
New data coming out of Israel supports that. An observational study in HCWs has a 75% reduction in infections (including asymptomatic) with the Pfizer vaccine.
I very much doubt it when you consider how diagnoses of all diseases are way down and the rate at which elective surgeries have been postponed.
"This is going to be the last lockdown", Matt Hancock says. "No guarantee current lockdown will be the last", minister admits. Can't help but think of Matt Lucas impersonation of Boris when listening to these clowns.
One of the most hilarious news I've ever seen - false positives caused by shaking of saliva containers.
Hong Kong police arrest lab assistant accused of tampering with coronavirus test samples
“The suspect was accused of deliberately shaking utensils containing deep-throat saliva specimens in order to affect the test results in the laboratory on three occasions on February 9 and 11,” she said.
https://amp.scmp.com/news/hong-kong...hong-kong-police-arrest-lab-assistant-accused
Hong Kong police arrest lab assistant accused of tampering with coronavirus test samples
“The suspect was accused of deliberately shaking utensils containing deep-throat saliva specimens in order to affect the test results in the laboratory on three occasions on February 9 and 11,” she said.
https://amp.scmp.com/news/hong-kong...hong-kong-police-arrest-lab-assistant-accused
https://www-forbes-com.cdn.ampproje...es-what-the-cdcs-new-recommendations-say/amp/
Double masking = more protection
Double masking = more protection
You think? You pessistmic sod, my first positive post in here for about half a year and you hit me with this.
I think 2021 will have lower mortality in many a country, and I'm gonna stick to that utterly unscientific claim.
If one condom doesn't work...
Is there any way of calculating (estimating through hospitalisation, R rate, etc) how many people approx in the UK were likely to have been infected? I'm trying to look for this information to see how many people already have immunity in this country coupled with the vaccination programme.
So we know 16 million are now immune from danger because of vaccines. And from 8 Jan figures there were 1.2 million infections reported. But the real number, mostly containing asymptomatic or never reported cases, will push this number a lot higher. The government must be using this to evaluate the risk of re-opening the country.
So we know 16 million are now immune from danger because of vaccines. And from 8 Jan figures there were 1.2 million infections reported. But the real number, mostly containing asymptomatic or never reported cases, will push this number a lot higher. The government must be using this to evaluate the risk of re-opening the country.
Lower excess mortality than last year - probably.
Lower excess mortality than average - seems unlikely if there is a backlog of elective surgeries and missed diagnoses.
I guess the amount of already sick and vulnerable people who have been killed off by this could impact the figures though.
Which is what I'm basing my unscientific positivity on.
The easiest baseline data comes from the ONS, and they are talking about 18% of the population having covid antibodies.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...n-england-wales-northern-ireland-and-scotland
Those are from tests taken during January so those are mostly antibodies from infection rather than vaccination.
Timing is important though - you need to look at Jab + 3 weeks for antibodies. You also need to keep in mind that some people aren't protected by antibodies, even after a jab. Where the antibodies are from prior infection there may not be enough of them to stop reinfection. Mutations throw in another limitation - with the SA variant in particular, the antibodies from past infection with the original strain, don't seem to protect people from reinfection.
There are promising signs at the moment, coming out of the vaccination program (from the UK and from elsewhere) but it could be another month before we really know what's happening.
Going up here too, only 500k vaccinated since Jan, useless
533 deaths today (Friday) compared to 758 last Friday. I'm now officially excited for Monday's announcements.
Puregym emailed me today to petition for ending restrictions on gyms. I probably won't be returning myself but I signed because I want the government to acknowledge the impact that lack of exercise might be having on people's mental health. Also a bit of a power move on their part, I think.
Not surprising at all, everyone can see vaccines have hit the spot and each business area wants to get in Boris' eyeline for Monday. I'm fully expecting outdoor sports to reopen straight away so I started some light jogging for my Saturday 5 a side sessions.
Ps. I will probably hold off from indoor exercise too for a few weeks.
You don't need a gym to get exercise
No you don't as my big bag of water and running shoes demonstrate.
I mentioned the mental health part though because I think having the option of exercise would be help a little, even at what I hope would be massively reduced capacity. I think it's the lesser of a few evils when it comes to reopening again.
That said, I'm not defending Puregym entirely because they did just about the bare minimum to be Covid-safe last night they reopened.
This isn't directed at you, but I get tired of the 'mental health' line rolled out by most gyms over the last 12 months. They really didn't give a shit about it prior to the pandemic. Most of the gyms using it during the pandemic may as well have come out with 'I don't believe in the restrictions' or 'I would like to make money'. I'd probably have a bit more respect for their honesty.
Mental health is being treated currently as an excuse to do whatever you want that is currently being inconvenienced by the restrictions. Lets hope all those businesses who are championing mental health now as a reason for opening up, are advocating for better mental health services when all of this is over.
Like most businesses everything they say and do is completely in their own self interest (profits) and nothing to do with mental health. You don't need a gym to improve your mental health through exercise.