SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Eire Red United]

Our Curfew in NL has been deemed to be 'An infringment on peoples freedom' by judges in the hague and they have asked to govt to cancel it immidiately. How bizzare.

Brilliant

 

[acnumber9]

Don’t be ridiculous. Have you any idea how difficult that would be to police.

Incredibly. But that’s not the point I’m making. If borders need to be closed to stop infection circulating, it shouldn’t matter which ones we’re referring to.

 

[entropy]

“Some of you may die. But it’s a sacrifice I’m willing to make”

 

[golden_blunder]

Brilliant

I don’t think it’s brilliant at all, a judge has made a decision going against health experts advice. If people start doing what they want, his decision could cost many lives

 

[McGrathsipan]

Didn’t we have one of those already after we bailed out the banks?! I try not to think about that stuff. Macroeconomics is weird. It’s not real money. We’ll muddle through, I’m sure.

I think people are losing their minds with this lockdown, never mind another one. They really need to get the fecking schools open soon.

Yeah I'm not worried about the economy. Its not in anyones interest to see us go under. Plus everyone owes money at this point.

 

[Tibs]

I watched a film called Contagion earlier on Netflix.

Uncanny how accurate it is

 

[Eendracht maakt macht]

Our Curfew in NL has been deemed to be 'An infringment on peoples freedom' by judges in the hague and they have asked to govt to cancel it immidiately. How bizzare.

Actually they said the law had no legal base for infringement on peoples freedom which is true. The goverment had to run it trough the Parliament. It’s just yet another feck up from the government and their legal advisors. SGP had told them beforehand. Now it will take weeks to install it again probably.

 

[Stanley Road]

Actually they said the law had no legal base for infringement on peoples freedom which is true. The goverment had to run it trough the Parliament. It’s just yet another feck up from the government and their legal advisors. SGP had told them beforehand. Now it will take weeks to install it again probably.

Thats the same thing, anyhow, its fecking stupid, however, I don't think it's working. If you look at Fridays figures for the last 3 weeks they are the same.

 

[arnie_ni]

I'm absolutely dying for a night out.

 

[Stanley Road]

Actually they said the law had no legal base for infringement on peoples freedom which is true. The goverment had to run it trough the Parliament. It’s just yet another feck up from the government and their legal advisors. SGP had told them beforehand. Now it will take weeks to install it again probably.

And 600k vaccines since jan 8, what the feck.

 

[Eendracht maakt macht]

And 600k vaccines since jan 8, what the feck.

Yes it’s all a monumental feck up I agree.

 

[Wibble]

I'm absolutely dying for a night out.

You could well be without the lockdown.

 

[Baxter]

This is surely impossible with mass testing? What’s the point of a vaccine if you’re basing decisions on arbitrary numbers. Beginning to get a horrible feeling this will never end. Much more months of this is going to be tough.

Struggling with the never ending cycle of work and sleep. Our area’s health board has a rate of around 45/100,000 just now and there’s no sign of any easing.

 

[Port Vale Devil]

I watched a film called Contagion earlier on Netflix.

Uncanny how accurate it is

Yeah it is crazy. Watched it when we originally went into lockdown and it was definitely predicting the pandemic.

 

[F-Red]

This is surely impossible with mass testing? What’s the point of a vaccine if you’re basing decisions on arbitrary numbers. Beginning to get a horrible feeling this will never end. Much more months of this is going to be tough.

Struggling with the never ending cycle of work and sleep. Our area’s health board has a rate of around 45/100,000 just now and there’s no sign of any easing.

The issue is still the numbers in hospital. Unless that drops significantly along with admission numbers, the case number is broadly irrelevant at this point in a discussion around easing of lockdown.

 

[stepic]

The issue is still the numbers in hospital. Unless that drops significantly along with admission numbers, the case number is broadly irrelevant at this point in a discussion around easing of lockdown.

Numbers in hospital is dropping too though.

 

[utdalltheway]

This is for my county (Orange County, CA); data from the New York Times.

Note: The 14-day average is the average of a day and the previous 13 days of data.
An average of 704 cases per day were reported in Orange County, a 59 percent decrease from the average two weeks ago. We were at a daily high case count of 4514 in late December.
Recent deaths have dropped a lot too; from a 14 day average of 53 in late Jan down to 33 per day average for the last 14 days.

Some positives..

 

[F-Red]

Numbers in hospital is dropping too though.

Yep, but there's more people in hospital with covid currently that there was in the first wave.

 

[RobinLFC]

Worldwide cases dropping drastically since a month or so - some much needed good news for once.

Free translation: pandemic is shrinking since the middle of January, from 750k worldwide cases per day at its peak to around 400k now.

 

[lynchie]

Yep, but there's more people in hospital with covid currently that there was in the first wave.

Just yesterday, the number of people in hospital dipped below the peak of the first wave. Cases, admissions, deaths etc all coming down fairly rapidly, but we have to acknowledge that it started at a very high level. Looking vaguely at how quickly the number of people in hospital is currently dropping, it takes about a month for it to reduce by half.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Good article in Nature about what the future might look like.

 

[F-Red]

Just yesterday, the number of people in hospital dipped below the peak of the first wave. Cases, admissions, deaths etc all coming down fairly rapidly, but we have to acknowledge that it started at a very high level. Looking vaguely at how quickly the number of people in hospital is currently dropping, it takes about a month for it to reduce by half.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

The latest data still shows it above it, but I would expect it to be under by the next update of data. The time this takes will determine how quickly society opens back up again, and falls in line with the expected date of May for hospitality. At some point there will be a crossing point of the data of hospitalisation/death rates with the higher risk age groups of the vaccine. Back to the original point I think using case rates as a judgement for reopening society quicker is probably the wrong metric to look at.

 

[Balljy]

How can our government be so bad at organising things? An excerpt from somebody arriving on a plane to go to into a quarantine hotel

"On board the plane from Madrid I was sitting with people who had not been in a high-risk country. When we arrived, I had to board a crowded transit shuttle to the terminal. It was absolutely packed with people, some from high-risk countries, others from lower risk. It is a frustrating system, it doesn't follow logic."

Also, of course they're like prisons in the sense you're not allowed out of the room. That's the whole point of them, although we do seem to be allowing people out for a bit to get fresh air.

Quarantine hotel rooms are 'like a prison' - BBC News

 

[Stanley Road]

How can our government be so bad at organising things? An excerpt from somebody arriving on a plane to go to into a quarantine hotel

"On board the plane from Madrid I was sitting with people who had not been in a high-risk country. When we arrived, I had to board a crowded transit shuttle to the terminal. It was absolutely packed with people, some from high-risk countries, others from lower risk. It is a frustrating system, it doesn't follow logic."

Also, of course they're like prisons in the sense you're not allowed out of the room. That's the whole point of them, although we do seem to be allowing people out for a bit to get fresh air.

Quarantine hotel rooms are 'like a prison' - BBC News

Stop fkin travelling, simple

 

[berbatrick]

 

[Eire Red United]

Boris to make announcement today? What do we reckon?
Hopefully schools beginning of March, still hoping we get the pubs back for Easter.

 

[evil_geko]

I think I've had it in January, 4 days of 38+C fever, then 5th day no more fever but I lost smell, which I got back 10 days later. So nothing that severe, didn't test, just isolated and stayed home, but might've been good old C-19.

 

[F-Red]

Boris to make announcement today? What do we reckon?
Hopefully schools beginning of March, still hoping we get the pubs back for Easter.

He's making an announcement on Monday with regards to the opening of society back up the next few months.

 

[jojojo]

Got a phone call from United today, basically saying nothing is happening and would I like my money back (from the last couple of games of the 19/20 season) As they said back in December he also confirmed that if they're allowed to, they'll have some fans back on a match ticket basis by the end of the season, but they aren't assuming/predicting anything.

I do think United have acted with some dignity during the epidemic - keeping their staff on, not attempting to get money from the season ticket holders etc, repaying as soon as you ask for it. It might seem a weird thing to congratulate them on, but I do.

 

[Eire Red United]

He's making an announcement on Monday with regards to the opening of society back up the next few months.

Stormont meeting today and supposed to make announcement. Must have got the two confused

 

[golden_blunder]

I think I've had it in January, 4 days of 38+C fever, then 5th day no more fever but I lost smell, which I got back 10 days later. So nothing that severe, didn't test, just isolated and stayed home, but might've been good old C-19.

Sure sounds like you had a mild dose of it

 

[FootballHQ]

Do you not get a breakdown of first and second jabs? Our covid hub in Ireland breaks it down into first and second doses. So we can fully appreciate how incredibly slowly our population is getting vaccinated.

It's around 600k for second doses from seeing the figures the other day. My dad had AZ first dose on Feb 3rd so will see how long before he gets invitation for second, probably sometime in April.

 

[FootballHQ]

Good article in Nature about what the future might look like.

Saw that elsewhere, interesting first time in a while there was speculation on the old herd immunity pipe dream and some number crunching.

55% of population being vaxxed is very realistic within next few monhs and what caught my eye is lifting of all social distancing measures if vaccine can be reached to 2/3s of population which again feels very realistic within six months).

The crux and there's always one is covid is needing vaccine to be 90% effective against transmission and no signficant variants emerging which feels a bit of a long shot given how the last few months have gone but we live in hope.

I wonder where we'd be now with opening up the country again if no significant variant had emerged?

 

[Pexbo]

Worldwide cases dropping drastically since a month or so - some much needed good news for once.

Free translation: pandemic is shrinking since the middle of January, from 750k worldwide cases per day at its peak to around 400k now.

Guessing this is a combination of vaccines (minimal) and natural herd immunity?

Regarding herd immunity, with people in routines and a lot in lockdowns surely the required immunity % is a lot lower as people are not mingling like they would in a normal functioning society?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Guessing this is a combination of vaccines (minimal) and natural herd immunity?

Regarding herd immunity, with people in routines and a lot in lockdowns surely the required immunity % is a lot lower as people are not mingling like they would in a normal functioning society?

Varying degrees of lockdown in most countries is likely the most influential factor.

 

[Hound Dog]

Varying degrees of lockdown in most countries is likely the most influential factor.

Could be but there are cases like my country - we have 14% of population vaccinated (not both doses) and had a lot of people infected and cases have gone down dramatically compared to before with virtually no lockdown to speak of.

 

[Pexbo]

Varying degrees of lockdown in most countries is likely the most influential factor.

I think my question was more a case of “is there a herd immunity achieved within the subset of people who cannot follow strict lock down rules?”


By that I mean... are plenty of bubbles that exist in offices, building sites, factories ect ect actually benefiting from natural herd immunity now it’s ravaged through a lot of them?

 

[RobinLFC]

Varying degrees of lockdown in most countries is likely the most influential factor.

You sure? I would've thought vaccines had to do something with it since most countries were already in a sort of lockdown between Nov 2020 - January 2021 when worldwide cases were rising to the absolute peak.

 

[prateik]

Guessing this is a combination of vaccines (minimal) and natural herd immunity?

Regarding herd immunity, with people in routines and a lot in lockdowns surely the required immunity % is a lot lower as people are not mingling like they would in a normal functioning society?

The US had very close to 300k during the global peak.. its down to around 70k now.. thats over 200k down. The US had been on an upward trend since after the thanksgiving/elections things from oct .. it was going to fall at some point.

The peak was around Jan 8th.. just after the Christmas/ holiday/ new year break.
Also.. it goes up and down without much action anyway.. there has to be some tipping point where it gets so out of control that people start taking more precautions on their own..

I'm sure vaccines can only help.. but the cases were quite likely to drop after that Jan peak regardless.

 

[Smores]

People are going to start ignoring the lockdown long before they're actually allowed so i think it's a wise move not to rush the public message.

Getting people to comply with any restrictions might be tough enough.