SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Can any experts (@esmufc07 ) explain to an idiot like me if it's likely that, due to the variants that keep popping up, we could potentially end up with years of various lockdowns? Or is the Oxford vaccine just plain shit* when it comes to dealing with other variants and there's not really much to panic over?

*It's not really shit, it's a marvel of modern medicine, but you get my point.
 
Mr Pigeon said:
Can any experts (@esmufc07 ) explain to an idiot like me if it's likely that, due to the variants that keep popping up, we could potentially end up with years of various lockdowns? Or is the Oxford vaccine just plain shit* when it comes to dealing with other variants and there's not really much to panic over?

*It's not really shit, it's a marvel of modern medicine, but you get my point.
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Not an expert but...
I think a lot of it isn't about technical stuff, it's about human behaviour, so anyone's guess really.

I think we'll see years of border controls, mask wearing on planes etc. The covid vaccines have been remarkably fast, and they'll adapt them fast as variants reduce efficacy. I think annual vaccinations for flu will turn into a winter vaccination for multiple things and the number of people who need it will rise.

It's almost inevitable that there will be jobs/activities where vaccination and/or regular testing become routine requirements.

As impressed as I am with the vaccines, I'll admit I've been disappointed with the tests so far. I'm hoping that quick tests will get steadily better and easier to administer. We might not get to the "lick the piece of paper, and it'll change colour" sort of simple. But if someone can come up with the equivalent of a breathalyser test for covid, then that would be huge.

As for lockdowns where you can't go to school, can't see family/friends, can't go to the seaside, can't have a game of 5-a-side etc. I don't think people can do that for much longer. So, I think that will stop. Stopping it without killing too many will be complicated - reopening on site teaching at universities for example, doesn't sound great, unless vaccination/testing is in place.
 
esmufc07 said:
Interesting read

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i might sound like a complete ass....but HOW is this not common knowledge? Isn't the idea of virus mutation just a given "broadly known fact" in society? Isn't it a well known fact that if you just let disease run rampant in a society, it can change?

I feel like this article is trying it's best, but in reality the headline is the equivalent of "did you know the sun is hot"?

I don't feel like i actually follow biological science news or really keep up with virology studies but you scroll the comments and there's some people talking about mutation as "something scary out of a movie"

WHAT!!?? :lol: :wenger: Are societies going to actually act shocked that uncontrolled and widespread infection could lead to dangerous mutations?
 
Mr Pigeon said:
Can any experts (@esmufc07 ) explain to an idiot like me if it's likely that, due to the variants that keep popping up, we could potentially end up with years of various lockdowns? Or is the Oxford vaccine just plain shit* when it comes to dealing with other variants and there's not really much to panic over?

*It's not really shit, it's a marvel of modern medicine, but you get my point.
Click to expand...

I'm no expert, but I don't think we'll see years of this lockdown process, the goal in all of this has been ensuring health care systems do not get overrun. We're seeing regularly, the discovery of new treatments to help patients being admitted so healthcare systems are learning quickly how to treat it. Vaccines will need some alterations annually to manage the new variants as it mutates (akin to how the flu vaccine works). More and more manufacturers will come on board in the coming years, so the way in which to manage this will become easier.

What we may see is some differing ways of things like air travel, akin to the changes the world made after the 9/11 plane attacks.
 
WPMUFC said:
i might sound like a complete ass....but HOW is this not common knowledge? Isn't the idea of virus mutation just a given "broadly known fact" in society? Isn't it a well known fact that if you just let disease run rampant in a society, it can change?

I feel like this article is trying it's best, but in reality the headline is the equivalent of "did you know the sun is hot"?

I don't feel like i actually follow biological science news or really keep up with virology studies but you scroll the comments and there's some people talking about mutation as "something scary out of a movie"

WHAT!!?? :lol: :wenger: Are societies going to actually act shocked that uncontrolled and widespread infection could lead to dangerous mutations?
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Actually, if you don't know that viruses are likely to mutate then you're qualified to run test and trace in the UK:

https://www.channel4.com/news/factc...ef-claims-variant-couldnt-have-been-predicted
 
Eire Red United said:
Did you read it? Makes a lot of very good points.
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I did. Although I was tempted to stop with the outrageous bullshit in the first couple of paragraphs about medical scientists taking their kids out of school for two weeks when another kid is sick. He doesn’t make any good points. Just whinges about how hard life is and takes some childish cheap shots at some of the experts who have to make tough decisions. It’s not even well written.

There is an interesting discussion to be had about where we go from here. I think the Zero Covid stuff is a pipe dream and get annoyed at the tactics used to sell it to us. Here’s a genuinely interesting article about the tough decisions ahead and why there needs to be debate. Much better than that dross.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
I did. Although I was tempted to stop with the outrageous bullshit in the first couple of paragraphs about medical scientists taking their kids out of school for two weeks when another kid is sick. He doesn’t make any good points. Just whinges about how hard life is and takes some childish cheap shots at some of the experts who have to make tough decisions. It’s not even well written.

There is an interesting discussion to be had about where we go from here. I think the Zero Covid stuff is a pipe dream and get annoyed at the tactics used to sell it to us. Here’s a genuinely interesting article about the tough decisions ahead and why there needs to be debate. Much better than that dross.
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Cheers for that article, just shared it with a couple of mates that have been harping on about being like New Zealand and Australia for a good while now.

I do think the jump from using China as an example, to warning we'd be in the exact same situation is a little much though due to the massive political and social differences between the two countries.
 
esmufc07 said:
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He seems to run a company that does home office setups for people, so I'd say he's definitely biased. While there are certainly some good aspects to working from home, I think people should be reluctant to allow their company to go fully WFH.

And $2,000 for the 'best remote setup on the planet' might be true, but if people are still working from the corner of their bedroom, no set-up will make that any less grim over an extended period.
 
McGrathsipan said:
Makes me boil the thoughts of them jsut fecking off on holidays while we are locking down

Then again going on holiday is now to be looked on with disdain because of this virus ! feck me
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I agree, it’s not fair to those of us trying to do the right things whilst the “don’t give 2 flying fcuks” brigade do what they want as usual
 
I’m getting sick and tired of hearing every fecking journalist banging on about summer holidays.

I’d like to be able to have my mother round for a cup of tea. I’d like to be able to try a new pair of jeans on in a shop. I’d like to be able to have a socially distanced beer with my friends.

But no, what’s important to so many idiots is travelling around the world spreading infection and feck the consequences.
 
jojojo said:
Not an expert but...
I think a lot of it isn't about technical stuff, it's about human behaviour, so anyone's guess really.

I think we'll see years of border controls, mask wearing on planes etc. The covid vaccines have been remarkably fast, and they'll adapt them fast as variants reduce efficacy. I think annual vaccinations for flu will turn into a winter vaccination for multiple things and the number of people who need it will rise.

It's almost inevitable that there will be jobs/activities where vaccination and/or regular testing become routine requirements.

As impressed as I am with the vaccines, I'll admit I've been disappointed with the tests so far. I'm hoping that quick tests will get steadily better and easier to administer. We might not get to the "lick the piece of paper, and it'll change colour" sort of simple. But if someone can come up with the equivalent of a breathalyser test for covid, then that would be huge.

As for lockdowns where you can't go to school, can't see family/friends, can't go to the seaside, can't have a game of 5-a-side etc. I don't think people can do that for much longer. So, I think that will stop. Stopping it without killing too many will be complicated - reopening on site teaching at universities for example, doesn't sound great, unless vaccination/testing is in place.
Click to expand...
F-Red said:
I'm no expert, but I don't think we'll see years of this lockdown process, the goal in all of this has been ensuring health care systems do not get overrun. We're seeing regularly, the discovery of new treatments to help patients being admitted so healthcare systems are learning quickly how to treat it. Vaccines will need some alterations annually to manage the new variants as it mutates (akin to how the flu vaccine works). More and more manufacturers will come on board in the coming years, so the way in which to manage this will become easier.

What we may see is some differing ways of things like air travel, akin to the changes the world made after the 9/11 plane attacks.
Click to expand...
Thanks folks, some very grounded observations. If anyone needs me, though, I'll still be in the bunker that belongs to @Dwazza Gunnar Solskjær
 
Garethw said:
I’m getting sick and tired of hearing every fecking journalist banging on about summer holidays.

I’d like to be able to have my mother round for a cup of tea. I’d like to be able to try a new pair of jeans on in a shop. I’d like to be able to have a socially distanced beer with my friends.

But no, what’s important to so many idiots is travelling around the world spreading infection and feck the consequences.
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Yeah, it's starting to get annoying. Apparently two weeks in Benidorm shouting "Five Stellas and a half dozen packs of scampi fries por favor" is more important than people just getting a chance to be people again.
 
P-Nut said:
Cheers for that article, just shared it with a couple of mates that have been harping on about being like New Zealand and Australia for a good while now.

I do think the jump from using China as an example, to warning we'd be in the exact same situation is a little much though due to the massive political and social differences between the two countries.
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A lot of it is scientists doing exactly what they hate other people doing. Refusing to listen to experts.

Politicians know a hell of lot more than they do about diplomacy but when politicians tell them that actually it won’t be possible to negotiate a hard border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK these scientists stick their fingers in their ears and say “we’re doing the science, so you should be able to do the politics”.

They’re just as bad on logistics. When pressed on how road transport would work in the EU with closed borders they waffle about trucks swapping trailers every time they reach a border, or dedicated toilets for foreign truck drivers at every service station.

Complete pie in the sky fantasy stuff. Which sound especially ridiculous coming from people who are typically perceived as being amongst the most rational.
 
Garethw said:
I’m getting sick and tired of hearing every fecking journalist banging on about summer holidays.

I’d like to be able to have my mother round for a cup of tea. I’d like to be able to try a new pair of jeans on in a shop. I’d like to be able to have a socially distanced beer with my friends.

But no, what’s important to so many idiots is travelling around the world spreading infection and feck the consequences.
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Totally agreed. Haven’t been home in a year
 
Pogue Mahone said:
I did. Although I was tempted to stop with the outrageous bullshit in the first couple of paragraphs about medical scientists taking their kids out of school for two weeks when another kid is sick. He doesn’t make any good points. Just whinges about how hard life is and takes some childish cheap shots at some of the experts who have to make tough decisions. It’s not even well written.

There is an interesting discussion to be had about where we go from here. I think the Zero Covid stuff is a pipe dream and get annoyed at the tactics used to sell it to us. Here’s a genuinely interesting article about the tough decisions ahead and why there needs to be debate. Much better than that dross.
Click to expand...
I don't see zero covid as achievable or even as a reasonable use of human resources.

Too many things have stopped happening. Babies aren't meeting their grandparents. People who aren't in relationships aren't getting the chance to make them. While there a massive amount of volunteer effort happening - a lot of things have disappeared (from libraries to local health walks).

Meanwhile some people are still working full-time in busy workplaces, but being told not to go to the pub, or even on a park run with the same people.

I've stalled older family members, who were all set to say, "bugger it, I don't care if I catch it, I want to sit down and have Christmas dinner with the family." I stalled them with talk about vaccine and summer picnics.

If I tell them to wait until sometime, maybe in 2022, maybe who knows when, after everyone's had two jabs and a booster, border controls are in place, track and trace of all people as they enter venues, all covid tests being sequenced, 0-10/cases per 100k etc etc etc. Nah, they won't want it. Life really is too short and the only numbers most people actually take seriously are the deaths.

I think people will decide to live with it, like they live with flu.
 
jojojo said:
I don't see zero covid as achievable or even as a reasonable use of human resources.

Too many things have stopped happening. Babies aren't meeting their grandparents. People who aren't in relationships aren't getting the chance to make them. While there a massive amount of volunteer effort happening - a lot of things have disappeared (from libraries to local health walks).

Meanwhile some people are still working full-time in busy workplaces, but being told not to go to the pub, or even on a park run with the same people.

I've stalled older family members, who were all set to say, "bugger it, I don't care if I catch it, I want to sit down and have Christmas dinner with the family." I stalled them with talk about vaccine and summer picnics.

If I tell them to wait until sometime, maybe in 2022, maybe who knows when, after everyone's had two jabs and a booster, border controls are in place, track and trace of all people as they enter venues, all covid tests being sequenced, 0-10/cases per 100k etc etc etc. Nah, they won't want it. Life really is too short and the only numbers most people actually take seriously are the deaths.

I think people will decide to live with it, like they live with flu.
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Absolutely. 100% agree.
 
jojojo said:
I don't see zero covid as achievable or even as a reasonable use of human resources.

Too many things have stopped happening. Babies aren't meeting their grandparents. People who aren't in relationships aren't getting the chance to make them. While there a massive amount of volunteer effort happening - a lot of things have disappeared (from libraries to local health walks).

Meanwhile some people are still working full-time in busy workplaces, but being told not to go to the pub, or even on a park run with the same people.

I've stalled older family members, who were all set to say, "bugger it, I don't care if I catch it, I want to sit down and have Christmas dinner with the family." I stalled them with talk about vaccine and summer picnics.

If I tell them to wait until sometime, maybe in 2022, maybe who knows when, after everyone's had two jabs and a booster, border controls are in place, track and trace of all people as they enter venues, all covid tests being sequenced, 0-10/cases per 100k etc etc etc. Nah, they won't want it. Life really is too short and the only numbers most people actually take seriously are the deaths.

I think people will decide to live with it, like they live with flu.
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China has near-zero covid without any of the restrictions you describe. It's a question of which freedoms are valued more.
 
berbatrick said:
China has near-zero covid without any of the restrictions you describe. It's a question of which freedoms are valued more.
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China is able to operate in almost complete isolation from its neighbours. It has to. So it’s a poor comparison.

It also expects its citizens to give up a right to privacy and civil liberties that wouldn’t fly in any western country.
 
Garethw said:
I’m getting sick and tired of hearing every fecking journalist banging on about summer holidays.

I’d like to be able to have my mother round for a cup of tea. I’d like to be able to try a new pair of jeans on in a shop. I’d like to be able to have a socially distanced beer with my friends.

But no, what’s important to so many idiots is travelling around the world spreading infection and feck the consequences.
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They're a bunch of knobheads - they did the same thing in the run up to Christmas.

It's why until 22nd, ministers should not appear on TV or answer journalist Qs unless its during a covid press conference imo
 
My mum and dad both got their first shots today, oxford vaccine, over 65s have started in my area
 
Bratt said:
How is the daily infections? Still going down?
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Up by a couple of hundred from yesterday. But these numbers are hard to read anything from as number of tests conducted are always increasing.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
China is able to operate in almost complete isolation from its neighbours. It has to. So it’s a poor comparison.

It also expects its citizens to give up a right to privacy and civil liberties that wouldn’t fly in any western country.
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Isolation is one factor, but industrialised countries with closed borders (like the US and Canada) aren't comparable in both deaths and cases. So it's a valid comparison for non-EU countries.

According to that article, which I don't fully trust*, it requires people to check in to every place they go, which enables contact tracing. 2 things:
Google, FB, etc know down to about a square meter where I am (and what I'm saying, etc) all the time. So the information is out there, and is used for better targeting ads which I block, rather than either something obviously nefarious (govt tracking dissidents) or something useful (contact tracing).
Secondly, I am in a university in the US that had a good covid record. Just like in China, I have to sign in with a university-built app, submit my symptoms, and tell the app I am entering campus, and swipe my ID card every time I go through a door. I have to report for random covid testing 1-2 times a week on 24 hours notice, if I don't all access is stopped and I have to get it cleared with the head of department. Since this is the only way to enter my lab and do my work, I would have been kicked out of the university and country by now if I hadn't submitted to these invasions of privacy.

In return for giving up these freedoms, Chinese "babies get to meet grandparents", "people in relationships get the chance to meet", unemployment numbers aren't insane, etc. Oh also less people dead.

*i know some people in China and while they use the app a lot I don't think it's as pervasive as the article describes, I'll ask.
 
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Dumbstar said:
Up by a couple of hundred from yesterday. But these numbers are hard to read anything from as number of tests conducted are always increasing.
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Quoting day to day differences is fairly useless. The 7 day average of cases continues to drop steadily.
 
berbatrick said:
Isolation is one factor, but industrialised countries with closed borders (like the US and Canada) aren't comparable in both deaths and cases. So it's a valid comparison for non-EU countries.

According to that article, which I don't fully trust*, it requires people to check in to every place they go, which enables contact tracing. 2 things:
Google, FB, etc know down to about a square meter where I am (and what I'm saying, etc) all the time. So the information is out there, and is used for better targeting ads which I block, rather than either something obviously nefarious (govt tracking dissidents) or something useful (contact tracing).
Secondly, I am in a university in the US that had a good covid record. Just like in China, I have to sign in with a university-built app, submit my symptoms, and tell the app I am entering campus, and swipe my ID card every time I go through a door. I have to report for random covid testing 1-2 times a week on 24 hours notice, if I don't all access is stopped and I have to get it cleared with the head of department. Since this is the only way to enter my lab and do my work, I would have been kicked out of the university and country by now if I hadn't submitted to these invasions of privacy.

In return for giving up these freedoms, Chinese "babies get to meet grandparents", "people in relationships get the chance to meet", unemployment numbers aren't insane, etc. Oh also less people dead.

*i know some people in China and while they use the app a lot I don't think it's as pervasive as the article describes, I'll ask.
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The thing is, I have absolutely no problem with the loss of data privacy required to go down the same route as China. My personal opinion is that personal data is over-valued in Europe and the recent changes to our data privacy legislation are over the top. And terribly timed, from the point of view of this pandemic.
 
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