SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Pogue Mahone said:
And we saw that cases jumped from state to state in Aus, repeatedly. What worked very well was the restrictions around air travel from other countries. Making land borders impermeable to the virus hasn’t worked anywhere.
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Only when the borders were open/reopened.

They are closed again now. Victoria has eradicated again and Qld and NSW has only 2 or 3 cases per day and reducing. Cellularising infection is a highly effective method of control. We just locked down the Northern Beaches and it made a huge and rapid difference.

In Brisbane's recent case it was more about caution as the one case that escaped from the quarantine hotels was the UK variant.
 
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lynchie said:
This was interesting, largely because it suggests to me that the measures taken by schools have actually been very effective. Viruses that we do know children are a significant reservoir for, like flu, are down massively. Credit to schools for that.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ommon-cold-flu-cases-coronavirus-restrictions
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I find data like that slightly scary. If SARS-CoV-2 can surge like it is right now, while incidence of colds and flu fall off a cliff then it must be considerably more transmissible. Which is a big change from the early reassurances that it was about as contagious as flu.
 
Wibble said:
Only when the borders were open/reopened.
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Well borders were only closed after index cases had been identified and distant outbreaks seeded, which were managed by local lockdowns. We certainly don’t have any evidence that closing land borders helped contain the virus.

Also. How long were Australian state borders closed at a time? We could possibly tolerate closing EU land borders for a few days at a time but definitely not for as long as NZ/Aus has had enforced quarantine etc at airports.
 
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lynchie said:
This was interesting, largely because it suggests to me that the measures taken by schools have actually been very effective. Viruses that we do know children are a significant reservoir for, like flu, are down massively. Credit to schools for that.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ommon-cold-flu-cases-coronavirus-restrictions
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The restrictions everywhere have assisted the restriction of all viral respiratory viruses. Any measures schools have taken will help but the relative lack of general transmission will be the biggest factor.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Well borders were only closed after index cases had been identified and distant outbreaks seeded, which were managed by local lockdowns. We certainly don’t have any evidence that closing land borders helped contain the virus.

Also. How long were Australian state borders closed at a time? We could possibly tolerate closing EU land borders for a few days at a time but definitely not for as long as NZ/Aus has had enforced quarantine etc at airports.
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Surely colds and flus are falling into the people who have symptoms but test negative for Covid? Why would people be going to GP’s etc with that at the moment? Most will probably assume Covid until they test negative then leave it there.

Edit: I quoted the wrong post.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Well borders were only closed after index cases had been identified and distant outbreaks seeded, which were managed by local lockdowns. We certainly don’t have any evidence that closing land borders helped contain the virus.

Also. How long were Australian state borders closed at a time? We could possibly tolerate closing EU land borders for a few days at a time but definitely not for as long as NZ/Aus has had enforced quarantine etc at airports.
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The border closures have varied in length. WA were closed for about 6 months I think and are back up again. As far as I remember we haven't had one case seeded from another state when state borders were closed. Maybe one where there were partial border closures (e.g closed to anyone from a hotspot and an infected person lied to cross a border)?

The source of every recent infection/cluster has been quarantine hotels, or associated people, within a particular state and open borders have allowed the spread to other states. States like WA who have had the hardest of closed borders hasn't had any spread.

Even now everyone from any other state has to quarantine for 14 days. Self quarantine for low risk states like NT who haven't had a case for months and under police guard for most others. Seems harsh but it has worked.

If you look at pandemic modelling cellularisation of infection, even with partly porous borders, does make a difference in slowing the spread and allowing gains in any one cell to be maintained.
 
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Solius said:
My gf is awaiting some results because she's felt light-headed and nauseous the last few days. I've felt fine but woken up today quite off-balance and dizzy, also got a bit of nausea but none of the symptoms they tell you to keep an eye out for. I know they can be wide ranging though.

Should get my gfs results soon and my test is on the way I think.
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My gf has these exact same symptoms and been of work for 4 weeks on sick. Doctors haven't seen her but have prescribed vertigo medicine. Let me know if she tests positive and ill send my wife for a test.

Hopefully your gf is ok
 
Wibble said:
The restrictions everywhere have assisted the restriction of all viral respiratory viruses. Any measures schools have taken will help but the relative lack of general transmission will be the biggest factor.
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Well, yeah, obviously all the restictions have helped - but given schools have largely been open to date this winter, and children are known to be a major spreader of flu, it's impressive that we've seen the reduction we have.

Pogue Mahone said:
I find data like that slightly scary. If SARS-CoV-2 can surge like it is right now, while incidence of colds and flu fall off a cliff then it must be considerably more transmissible. Which is a big change from the early reassurances that it was about as contagious as flu.
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That's a good point, but I think it also relates to us putting in place lots of preventative measures (obsessive surface cleaning, etc) because they're effective for colds and flu, while they may not be the ideal measures for this virus.
 
acnumber9 said:
Surely colds and flus are falling into the people who have symptoms but test negative for Covid? Why would people be going to GP’s etc with that at the moment? Most will probably assume Covid until they test negative then leave it there.

Edit: I quoted the wrong post.
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Assuming you mean the article - the guy from Southampton University quoted in it does address this point, but says that can't account for the scale of reduction.
 
lynchie said:
That's a good point, but I think it also relates to us putting in place lots of preventative measures (obsessive surface cleaning, etc) because they're effective for colds and flu, while they may not be the ideal measures for this virus.
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I think the only way to interpret this is that the R for covid is a lot higher than flu/colds. Let’s say 3.5 vs 2.5.

The measures taken drop the R for all respiratory viruses by, say, 1.6. That takes colds/flu to < 1.0 which means they effectively die out but SARS-CoV-2 remains at 1.9 and continues to spread.

As I said that’s a bit depressing/scary as we’ve been assured for a while that it’s not much more contagious than influenza. And this is all before the UK/SA variants become dominant (talking from Irish perspective anyway)
 
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jojojo said:
Closing is genuinely difficult within Europe though, even for an island. France implemented a temporary border closure with the UK just before Christmas - within two days we had 10000 lorries + drivers waiting at the port.

People living in one country, working in another is common in Europe. Maintenance teams often work across the whole of Europe.

Improved testing, with faster (and more reliable) turnround times might be practical, but closures? I'm sure we'll hear the politicians announce them in the future, but the exceptions list will be big.
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That situation isn't unique. The same happened here when Malaysia first closed its borders to Singapore. The two countries quickly worked out a system to ensure trucks and other essential stuff can pass through customs. We did stop the human flow though. Thousands and thousands of Malaysians who work in Singapore but live in Malaysia were affected. We just try to find solutions for that. It's tough. Many Malaysian workers are stuck in Singapore for almost a year already, not being able to go back to see their loved ones. But it's bloody effective in controlling the pandemic.
 
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arnie_ni said:
My gf has these exact same symptoms and been of work for 4 weeks on sick. Doctors haven't seen her but have prescribed vertigo medicine. Let me know if she tests positive and ill send my wife for a test.

Hopefully your gf is ok
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Must be hard to keep both gf and wife happy during a pandemic!
 
lynchie said:
Assuming you mean the article - the guy from Southampton University quoted in it does address this point, but says that can't account for the scale of reduction.
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Yeah, it mentions not contacting GP’s but I think that’s being overplayed slightly. The people getting negatives have to be suffering from some virus, otherwise why are they getting tested? And I imagine contacting GP’s is down across the board.
 
"The worst thing now would be for...the vaccine programme to breed any kind of complacency"

I really hope this isn't the assumption the government are operating under because it seems obvious that as the vaccines roll out to friends and family, people will relax. Many people are agreeing to do things they consider inhuman because we're in the most extreme situation, once people feel it is no longer so extreme, they won't be as vigilant. And once some people in the community start to relax, particularly those you know, you'll start relaxing too. Once the people "at risk" in your community are vaccinated, then you'll be able to rationalise the wider community risks away, and feel more comfortable taking your own personal risks. Even when those rationalisations are based on miscalculations of the risk.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a big spike in hospitalisations among the 45-64 year old age group towards the end of Feb. Once their parents and elderly family and friends are safe, I think a lot of people will start socialising relatively normally. That age group are still about 50% less likely to be infected than younger adults because they adhere more strongly to the restrictions, but they're 3-4x as likely to be hospitalised. If 3x as many people aged 45-64 got infected as do currently, which doesn't seem a huge leap given the sheltered lives so many are living currently, it would make up for all of the 65+s no longer in hospital.

The estimates are based on the hospitalisation rates from here, which suggest in the week after Christmas there were around 200 kids aged 0-14 newly hospitalised with covid, 2,000 15-44 year olds, 5,000 45-64 year olds, 3,500 65-74 year olds, 4,500 75-84 year olds, and 4,000 85+. All of which totals up to just over 19,000 cases, which matches the total for England from here, so probably underestimates the UK total for each age group by ~ 15%.
 
Brwned said:
"The worst thing now would be for...the vaccine programme to breed any kind of complacency"

I really hope this isn't the assumption the government are operating under because it seems obvious that as the vaccines roll out to friends and family, people will relax. Many people are agreeing to do things they consider inhuman because we're in the most extreme situation, once people feel it is no longer so extreme, they won't be as vigilant. And once some people in the community start to relax, particularly those you know, you'll start relaxing too. Once the people "at risk" in your community are vaccinated, then you'll be able to rationalise the wider community risks away, and feel more comfortable taking your own personal risks. Even when those rationalisations are based on miscalculations of the risk.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a big spike in hospitalisations among the 45-64 year old age group towards the end of Feb. Once their parents and elderly family and friends are safe, I think a lot of people will start socialising relatively normally. That age group are still about 50% less likely to be infected than younger adults because they adhere more strongly to the restrictions, but they're 3-4x as likely to be hospitalised. If 3x as many people aged 45-64 got infected as do currently, which doesn't seem a huge leap given the sheltered lives so many are living currently, it would make up for all of the 65+s no longer in hospital.

The estimates are based on the hospitalisation rates from here, which suggest in the week after Christmas there were around 200 kids aged 0-14 newly hospitalised with covid, 2,000 15-44 year olds, 5,000 45-64 year olds, 3,500 65-74 year olds, 4,500 75-84 year olds, and 4,000 85+. All of which totals up to just over 19,000 cases, which matches the total for England from here, so probably underestimates the UK total for each age group by ~ 15%.
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Yeah, that’s a real worry. I actually think this current surge was fuelled by all the good news about vaccines in the last couple of months. Even though (almost) nobody was getting vaccinated the virus felt less threatening once we knew how it could/would be defeated. I’m convinced that led to a load of people taking more risks than they would otherwise.

And you’re dead right. We’re likely heading for a huge surge in younger cases once the older/most vulnerable are protected. And don’t forget that younger cases place q much higher demand on hospitals and ITU beds. A lot of the most frail/elderly victims weren’t even considered for hospital admission, never mind ventilation.

Coming out of lockdown safely this time round is going to be incredibly difficult to manage.
 
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I just realised, i think I preferred the daily press conferences even though they became shit and no one watched towards the end.

Now when theres a press conference announced, like this evening, I get a feeling of dread, like I know I and others are about to get bent over.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Yeah, that’s a real worry. I actually think this current surge was fuelled by all the good news about vaccines in the last couple of months. Even though (almost) nobody was getting vaccinated the virus felt less threatening once we knew how it could/would be defeated. I’m convinced that led to a load of people taking more risks than they would otherwise.

And you’re dead right. We’re likely heading for a huge surge in younger cases once the older/most vulnerable are protected. And don’t forget that younger cases place q much higher demand on hospitals and ITU beds. A lot of the most frail/elderly victims weren’t even considered for hospital admission, never mind ventilation.

Coming out of lockdown safely this time round is going to be incredibly difficult to manage.
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Yeah, agreed. Although I don't think the vaccine news went all in one direction for Christmas. My granny was happy to put off this Christmas when she new a vaccine would be available to her within a month, while just a month earlier she was adamant she was going to see family despite the risks because it could be her last. I think that applies in different contexts across the age ranges. I definitely found it easier to make sacrifices over the holidays knowing there was something to look forward to in the not-too-distant future. But yeah I'm sure it emboldened some of the bigger parties too.

SalfordRed18 said:
I just realised, i think I preferred the daily press conferences even though they became shit and no one watched towards the end.

Now when theres a press conference announced, like this evening, I get a feeling of dread, like I know I and others are about to get bent over.
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I think this is just the start of new daily press conferences, mostly focused on the one positive we have at the moment: the vaccines. They said they were starting daily briefings on that from this Monday. Or is this another one?
 
Brwned said:
"The worst thing now would be for...the vaccine programme to breed any kind of complacency"

I really hope this isn't the assumption the government are operating under because it seems obvious that as the vaccines roll out to friends and family, people will relax. Many people are agreeing to do things they consider inhuman because we're in the most extreme situation, once people feel it is no longer so extreme, they won't be as vigilant. And once some people in the community start to relax, particularly those you know, you'll start relaxing too. Once the people "at risk" in your community are vaccinated, then you'll be able to rationalise the wider community risks away, and feel more comfortable taking your own personal risks. Even when those rationalisations are based on miscalculations of the risk.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a big spike in hospitalisations among the 45-64 year old age group towards the end of Feb. Once their parents and elderly family and friends are safe, I think a lot of people will start socialising relatively normally. That age group are still about 50% less likely to be infected than younger adults because they adhere more strongly to the restrictions, but they're 3-4x as likely to be hospitalised. If 3x as many people aged 45-64 got infected as do currently, which doesn't seem a huge leap given the sheltered lives so many are living currently, it would make up for all of the 65+s no longer in hospital.

The estimates are based on the hospitalisation rates from here, which suggest in the week after Christmas there were around 200 kids aged 0-14 newly hospitalised with covid, 2,000 15-44 year olds, 5,000 45-64 year olds, 3,500 65-74 year olds, 4,500 75-84 year olds, and 4,000 85+. All of which totals up to just over 19,000 cases, which matches the total for England from here, so probably underestimates the UK total for each age group by ~ 15%.
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On which levels of indicators (number of vaccinated people/cases&deaths per day, etc.) do you think that people should start to live relatively normally?
 
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At least y’all have a vaccination plan. Word is coming out here that we really had no true vaccination plan in place after the initial rollout of the vaccine itself.
 
Fingeredmouse said:
As genocide? No.
As a war crime, surely.
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esmufc07 said:
You should go and research the definition of genocide.
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Fluctuation0161 said:
@esmu

I'm unsure why you are both splitting hairs here. I'd say it has destroyed the nation in all but name.

genocide
noun

/ˈdʒenəsaɪd/

/ˈdʒenəsaɪd/
[uncountable, countable]
  1. the murder of a large number of people from a particular nation or ethnic group, with the aim of destroying that nation or group
https://www.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com/definition/english/genocide

Anyway, back on topic...
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Genocide and war crime are political concepts used by institutions and the so-called international community. I prefer a neutral definition "mass murder" whatever the context.
 
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Ecstatic said:
How would explain that Ireland seems to have the worst dynamics?
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Combination of being riddled with the highly contagious “UK variant” and an inherently very sociable culture, that lost the run of ourselves when restrictions were eased in the run up to Christmas.

A lot of it is timing too. We squashed our second wave more effectively than almost every other European country in November which meant that we opened up at a time of year where people always tend to shop/socialise like crazy, while most (all?) other countries were still tightening their restrictions. It didn’t help that we eased off while good news about vaccines was all over the news, which amped up the giddiness.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Combination of being riddled with the very contagious “UK variant” and an inherently very sociable culture, that lost the run of ourselves when restrictions were eased in the run up to Christmas.
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Thanks. Another tweet about the country.

 
Ecstatic said:
Thanks. Another tweet about the country.

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Yeah. That B117 strain took over incredibly fast. Courtesy of constant heavy traffic between Uk and Ireland. No coincidence that our border counties are the worst hit. It’s a hell of a Brexit leaving gift.

I don’t know what the % looks like in the rest of Europe but suspect it’s a lot lower.
 
Fluctuation0161 said:
@esmu

I'm unsure why you are both splitting hairs here. I'd say it has destroyed the nation in all but name.

genocide
noun

/ˈdʒenəsaɪd/

/ˈdʒenəsaɪd/
[uncountable, countable]
  1. the murder of a large number of people from a particular nation or ethnic group, with the aim of destroying that nation or group
https://www.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com/definition/english/genocide

Anyway, back on topic...
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Because it's hyperbolic and undermines the genuine issues of what Blair did.
Anyway. Back, as you rightly say, on topic.
 
Covid-England-trendline-10-01-2021-14-day-new-scale-2.png


https://vip.politicsmeanspolitics.com/2021/01/10/uk-covid-19-data-10-january-2021/
 
Pogue Mahone said:
All hospitalised patients though. I’d be surprised if most people hospitalised with a medical illness didn’t have at least one symptom 6 months later. If you’re so medically ill you need to go into hospital it can take a long time to fully recuperate, no matter what put you there.
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I personally know a couple of people who weren't hospitalised but are still feeling the effects of covid in fairness.

Also, hasn't pogba suffered from long covid to an extent or have I made that up?
 
SalfordRed18 said:
I personally know a couple of people who weren't hospitalised but are still feeling the effects of covid in fairness.

Also, hasn't pogba suffered from long covid to an extent or have I made that up?
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I haven't heard about Pogba, I doubt he could play 90 minutes if he has any lasting effects. Lampard said Kai Havertz has problems though.
 
SalfordRed18 said:
I personally know a couple of people who weren't hospitalised but are still feeling the effects of covid in fairness.

Also, hasn't pogba suffered from long covid to an extent or have I made that up?
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If Pogba’s capable of playing 90 minutes of professional football he’s obviously not doing too bad! There are lots of people out there who don’t end up in hospital that take a long time to recover. That’s true. It’s just that the specific bit of research I was talking about looked at hospitalised people only. When you’re that sick it’s not all that surprising to not be 100% after 6 months.
 
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