SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Increasingly likely that schools will be closed. Or at least be postponed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...s-possible-new-covid-restrictions-source-says

Dr Michael Tildesley, of the University of Warwick, who is part of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, which also feeds into Sage, said he had not heard anything about a “tier 5” but that it seems likely that if any extra measures were taken, these might include schools and universities closing.

“In terms of tier 4, it doesn’t appear to be effective in those parts of the country where the new variant is circulating, but we will learn more over the next week or so,” he said.

The move to close schools has been backed by Dr Nick Davies, another member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling and an author of the recent analysis.

“If our parameter estimates are correct … it seems like [tier 4] alone isn’t enough, so something else might need to be done on top of that. And we’ve looked at school closures because that’s sort of the next obvious thing to do on top of those restrictions,” he said, although he added that the evidence around schools closing is unclear.

Schools closed for the majority of pupils during the first lockdown in the spring, while the other restrictions included the edict to venture outside only once a day for exercise, leave home only for essentials, and for all non-essential shops and places of worship to close.


Yep. I work with the people who produce those numbers here in Canada; it's actually even a little more complex. They look at long-term death numbers for the period in question, and also take demographic changes into account (how the population's size and make-up change due to deaths, births, and migration). Based on that, they calculate the range of expected deaths (the expected average, and the plus/minus ranges; see for example the Statistics Canada graph). The difference between the actual number of deaths and this expected average then produces the excess deaths number.

Of course, there are a few footnotes to that number. First, as I said, there is a range of expected deaths. Only one excess deaths number is provided, and that's based on the average number of expected deaths (i.e., the middle of the range); but the actual number of excess deaths could be anything between the top or bottom of the range of expected deaths. And second, the excess deaths number lacks context. Because of the lockdowns and hygiene measures, some diseases are not spreading as much as usual. For example, the flu season is reduced, and has led to reduced flu deaths. And as people are staying home, they are less likely to get into a car accident - and so on. On the other hand, due to the lockdowns, a lot of regular health care (like surgery, regular appointments and preventive screenings) have been suspended, leading to additional deaths, which are not directly caused by COVID-19 but are nonetheless caused by the pandemic.

It's hard to say what the exact impact is of each of those footnotes. But as a general indicator, the excess deaths number is much more interesting than the 'simple' number of COVID-19 deaths, which is certainly an underestimate (as people are not tested for COVID-19 consistently) and incomparable across countries (as different countries have different rules for when to attribute a death to COVID-19).
Yeah. The trend is consistent in most countries I've bothered to check around the world. If anything, we're undercounting the number of deaths.

Good point about the reduced deaths from other causes not being accounted for as well. People staying home means less accidents, less flu, etc.


The Empire Strikes Back!! :devil:
:lol: :lol: :lol:
 
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We should carry on doing nothing different for a few more days, just to make completely sure the hospitals wont be able to cope.

Then around NYE or start of the new year, the government can announce a bunch of new measures and act as if the surge in cases was completely unforseeable and hadn't been predicted by anyone. Just make sure it's announced too late to stop anyone partying and infecting their relatives on NYE itself.

If only it was possible to forsee in some way that a variant of the virus that has been present in London for months would somehow spread to other areas of the country, where thousands of people from London travel to and from every day.
 
My Mate just text me and told me his GF tested positive and he cant understand how as she only saw her family and his family over christmas eve and christmas day - just the 12 people. FOR F**K SAKE!!!

I mean this is an intelligent man saying this to me. Now they have brought it to our village. Thanks man.
Crap. I thought gatherings were banned? I guess this means the tier restrictions are useless because people blatantly ignore it.

Maybe provide a tip hotline to report offenders with a 100 pound reward if true. That would solve a lot of problems with idiots.
 
My Mate just text me and told me his GF tested positive and he cant understand how as she only saw her family and his family over christmas eve and christmas day - just the 12 people. FOR F**K SAKE!!!

I mean this is an intelligent man saying this to me. Now they have brought it to our village. Thanks man.
Intelligent man with a lack of common sense or logic
 
Can we agree the guys below wish them love, prosperity and long life? :)

Anyway, let's move on.

I didn’t say they wished them love, I said they didn’t wish death on her family, which is what you claimed. This is like the third time I’ve had to explain this to you ye damn tool.

Anyway, let’s move on. Wishing you love, prosperity and a long life :)
 
Crap. I thought gatherings were banned? I guess this means the tier restrictions are useless because people blatantly ignore it.

Maybe provide a tip hotline to report offenders with a 100 pound reward if true. That would solve a lot of problems with idiots.
He’s in ireland
 
We should carry on doing nothing different for a few more days, just to make completely sure the hospitals wont be able to cope.

Then around NYE or start of the new year, the government can announce a bunch of new measures and act as if the surge in cases was completely unforseeable and hadn't been predicted by anyone. Just make sure it's announced too late to stop anyone partying and infecting their relatives on NYE itself.

If only it was possible to forsee in some way that a variant of the virus that has been present in London for months would somehow spread to other areas of the country, where thousands of people from London travel to and from every day.
I'm still shocked that they found it in Sept and it was spreading for 3 months before they realised it was a problem and did something. I thought they were boasting about all their testing, and all the forensic and epidemiological work.

Intelligent man with a lack of common sense or logic
Ah, I see. Thanks for the clarification.
 
I'd actually forgotten we still have NYE to come. :nervous:

Yep. Today has been a real eye opener. I live in a small village on a National trust estate and although the NT have closed the park off there are numerous footpaths in from the village. Literally hordes of people today, so many I can’t even describe it without it sounding like hyperbole. It’s snowed really heavily here and I went outside at one point and there must have been 12 - 15 people all in a huge group, completely taking the whole pavement up and you could see their breath clouds all mingling. Do these dolts not read or watch the news? >50k new infections, a number that was scoffed at when Sage predicted it in October.

Wherever I looked today, I saw people just not being careful. As usual, us residents just stayed in.
 
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All I know is if I was to take a dozen random pictures of Belfast city centre just before Christmas you would not find 90% of people wearing masks in and out of shops, and if you have anyone in your family working in hospitality or retail you would have no shortage of stories every day of the pains they have to go to reminding people to put their masks on, keep their distance, etc. So again it's about the proportions you deem acceptable here. "By and large", "fantastic compliance" etc. are quite vague descriptions of quantitative measurements, so you might be seeing the same thing other people are seeing but describing it differently because they are imprecise descriptions on both sides, and you have different expectations.

Personally I would expect 100% adherence to masks by this point so 80%, while a big improvement on the summer, is still unacceptably poor. 90% is acceptable. 99% is fantastic. Imperfection is just a part of life. Social distancing is harder to say because they're context-dependent but I would say the majority in supermarkets I've been to don't make much effort to distance. There aren't mass crowds because there are fewer people but there are still people impatiently squeezing through busy aisles, some have no problem brushing up against you because they feel entitled to walk through that space at that time, and lots of people walk around as if they're unaware of their surroundings and the moment they're in.

I get the desire for normality. Many of the spaces we've been going to for years are shut off from us, so in the few places we're allowed to go back to we would like to act relatively normally, if we have to put on a mask then fine but I'm not going to space myself out on an escalator, wait for people to go past in the aisles, etc. That's how it comes across and it isn't an uncommon thing where I'm at.

The reality is we live in a global world and can see how other citizens have adhered. It is the case that many countries in the East have seen more rigorous adherence, and it has had a positive effect on transmission. They hold themselves to higher standards in this regard, in large part because the social pressure forces them to. That social pressure is uncomfortable but it isn't unkind. There is this idea that saying people are doing the wrong thing is unkind, but the counter-argument is that doing the wrong thing is itself unkind to other citizens.

I agree with you that there are a lot of people that seem unhealthily angry at the world, and seeking out that information verges on masochism at points. Then again I just assume that is mostly just their coping mechanism at the moment. We all have to have some kind of coping mechanism. It helps you cope to focus on most people complying but some people need a different kind of focus to help them get by. But I don't think pointing out the imperfections in society's response that you see in every day life are all like that. I'm not angry at people, but I think it's both necessary and healthy to expect more from our citizens at the moment. Things are getting worse so we need to make more sacrifices. That's unfortunate but true. You can blame the government while still demanding more from individuals.

You see, in my experience I’d say that 9/10 folk wearing masks when in the supermarket is about par for the course. I’m not going to pretend that my anecdotal evidence is worth a jot, mind. It will certainly vary from person to person. On the whole, however, I don’t conduct my day-to-day activities and feel as if people are being reckless, or behaving with a total disregard for the safety of others. As I’ve said several times now, I think people, generally, are trying their best to get through this. I agree with the tone of your post more generally, however. What I’m finding a little tedious, mind you, is this sort of thing...

Yeah. I needed to go in to my local town centre to post something and it was crazy - like a normal day! People out eating food from the various vans, masks on only maybe 10% outside and probably 60% (worn correctly) inside, absolutely no social distancing. It’s a real shit show at the moment.

I really don’t mean to get at you but what is your issue here? If it is people (en masse) not wearing masks, or refusing to display good manners in a shop, then you’re well within your rights to feel distressed. But let’s get it right: people eating takeaway food from a van is absolutely fine. People walking around a town centre is absolutely fine and well within what the public has been instructed to do (area dependent). Or is it only acceptable to do so when somebody such as yourself decides that they need to post something? I mean, now we’ve started to dissect the decision making of others re. eating food from takeaway vans, it really begs the question as to whether or not you really needed to post whatever it is that required posting. Am I being unfair? Of course I am. I’m being a bit of twat. But this is the kind of discourse that we really need to nip in the bud: there are people milling around that town centre who are going about their business no differently to you; perhaps trying to maintain some semblance of normality or routine. That shouldn’t be discouraged until the government make an executive (belated?) decision to demand that they stop doing those things.

And while I’m at it, without meaning to discredit what you’re saying, if only 6 out of 10 people were wearing masks inside of shops then I’d be very alarmed as to what they’re putting in the water wherever you happen to live. I walked around a busy city centre last night (I wanted some new work clothes for next week - was this allowed?) and there is no way that 40% of people weren’t wearing masks inside. Anecdotal again, mind you, but you see my point.
 
Are people really getting worked up about posters saying they hope some totally random person on a news report suffers with covid because they are ignorant about wearing a mask and taking precautions?

Who cares.
 
Are people really getting worked up about posters saying they hope some totally random person on a news report suffers with covid because they are ignorant about wearing a mask and taking precautions?

Who cares.

Pointing out that it’s more than a little strange is perfectly reasonable.
 
Pointing out that it’s more than a little strange is perfectly reasonable.

But really who cares? Are we getting offended on other people's behalf again. People who we don't even know and don't even know us or never will. Random people from the TV.

Then you have posters angling for mods to punish people. Feck me :lol:
 
But really who cares? Are we getting offended on other people's behalf again. People who we don't even know and don't even know us or never will. Random people from the TV.

Then you have posters angling for mods to punish people. Feck me :lol:

Some people care more than others, I guess. It doesn’t bother me; I do think it’s objectively strange, however. If you’re going to say really silly things every time you see somebody doing something that might contravene any sort of guidance then you’d be best locking yourself away and turning off the television for another year or so. It’s unhealthy.
 
It’s amazing that the UK has done by far the most testing, almost 0.75 tests per person. Yet we have no control over this thing at all. Wasted effort.
 
But really who cares? Are we getting offended on other people's behalf again. People who we don't even know and don't even know us or never will. Random people from the TV.

Then you have posters angling for mods to punish people. Feck me :lol:

Been a bit of this going on the last few days. I find it strange, when you get to that point people should hit the ‘log out’ button.
 
Hopefully it's a national lockdown tomorrow. It doesn't matter whether the government or public are to blame, people are doing as much as is allowed which just causes rebound so the government need a strong hand.

Personally i can't understand why people feel the need to go shopping in busy city centres right now. Had to bite my tongue talking to friends/family.
 
Been a bit of this going on the last few days. I find it strange, when you get to that point people should hit the ‘log out’ button.

I tend to avoid the thread now. Then again im trying to avoid covid related doom and gloom in general where I can and just pick on Chelsea fans and what not instead.
 
We've been hit by another earthquake today, 6,2 on richter, you can't make this shit up.

This one was more devastating than the one in March, there are 7 people dead with many more injured and there are people still under ruins.

Several cities have been ruined like it was war again, my hometown Glina looks like it's been hit with atomic bomb, there's no house in town without some damage.

Friend of my sister lost father and brother, devastating situation all around :(
 
We've been hit by another earthquake today, 6,2 on richter, you can't make this shit up.

This one was more devastating than the one in March, there are 7 people dead with many more injured and there are people still under ruins.

Several cities have been ruined like it was war again, my hometown Glina looks like it's been hit with atomic bomb, there's no house in town without some damage.

Friend of my sister lost father and brother, devastating situation all around :(
Christ. Hope y’all recover from this as soon as possible.
 
Danish government just prolonged the current lockdown until Jan 17. As in all stores except pharmacies and supermarkets, gyms, schools etc. closed.
 
Holidays happening this summer or what? Supposed to be off to Mexico in June which was already rescheduled from last summer, starting to get doubts again.
 
Are people really getting worked up about posters saying they hope some totally random person on a news report suffers with covid because they are ignorant about wearing a mask and taking precautions?

Who cares.
This makes sense because aren't you a police officer lool why would you care
 
Holidays happening this summer or what? Supposed to be off to Mexico in June which was already rescheduled from last summer, starting to get doubts again.
Tbh they should if the vaccine is rolled out as they're saying it will. It depends on that.
 
People's personal experiences in various parts of the UK/Ireland are valid. My sis lives in Bolton. She was in a queue in the bank today and the man behind her was coughing incessantly, no mask. She didn't bother waiting.

Then she went into a huge supermarket. The security guy who usually tells people to put a mask on wasn't there, and evidently only a handful of people were wearing masks.

The cashier also didn't have a mask. She told my sister that she had asthma and couldn't wear one. My sis (who isn't confrontational) said "could you not wear a face shield instead?" The answer was no, because she feels claustrophobic. That woman is interacting with hundreds of people every time she goes to work.

I simply don't understand this unwillingness to wear a mask, or a simple face-covering.
 
situation feels a bit hopeless atm. Winter, inaction by Johnson etc..
It does. There seems to be no end in sight even with the vaccines coming out. Every day seems to take longer to pass compared to the last. I am hating every minute of this. The situation isn't so hopeless, we have to keep our head up or we'll really lose the plot.

The winter was always gonna be tough. Let's just pull together and try to get through this. There'll be tier announcements tomorrow and then hopefully the good news of the vaccine with the roll out for January. Let's get past jan and hopefully we will see sunnier days.
 

That's the thing that really annoys me when people start bringing in conspiracy theories, downplaying the numbers etc that the toll on the physical and mental health of nurses/doctors is fecking immense and people just don't seem to be cognizant of that. It's just appalling what they must be going through.
 
It does. There seems to be no end in sight even with the vaccines coming out. Every day seems to take longer to pass compared to the last. I am hating every minute of this. The situation isn't so hopeless, we have to keep our head up or we'll really lose the plot.

The winter was always gonna be tough. Let's just pull together and try to get through this. There'll be tier announcements tomorrow and then hopefully the good news of the vaccine with the roll out for January. Let's get past jan and hopefully we will see sunnier days.

I think many of us are in this situation.

I've experienced a lockdown in two different countries. First in China from December - January and then in England from March - now. The difference is night and day.

I can't go back to Shanghai as their border controls are super strict. I Haven't seen my girlfriend out there since December last year... we have pretty much split up. It's also ruined any business plans I had out there. Feel quite hopeless.
 
You see, in my experience I’d say that 9/10 folk wearing masks when in the supermarket is about par for the course. I’m not going to pretend that my anecdotal evidence is worth a jot, mind. It will certainly vary from person to person. On the whole, however, I don’t conduct my day-to-day activities and feel as if people are being reckless, or behaving with a total disregard for the safety of others. As I’ve said several times now, I think people, generally, are trying their best to get through this. I agree with the tone of your post more generally, however. What I’m finding a little tedious, mind you, is this sort of thing...



I really don’t mean to get at you but what is your issue here? If it is people (en masse) not wearing masks, or refusing to display good manners in a shop, then you’re well within your rights to feel distressed. But let’s get it right: people eating takeaway food from a van is absolutely fine. People walking around a town centre is absolutely fine and well within what the public has been instructed to do (area dependent). Or is it only acceptable to do so when somebody such as yourself decides that they need to post something? I mean, now we’ve started to dissect the decision making of others re. eating food from takeaway vans, it really begs the question as to whether or not you really needed to post whatever it is that required posting. Am I being unfair? Of course I am. I’m being a bit of twat. But this is the kind of discourse that we really need to nip in the bud: there are people milling around that town centre who are going about their business no differently to you; perhaps trying to maintain some semblance of normality or routine. That shouldn’t be discouraged until the government make an executive (belated?) decision to demand that they stop doing those things.

And while I’m at it, without meaning to discredit what you’re saying, if only 6 out of 10 people were wearing masks inside of shops then I’d be very alarmed as to what they’re putting in the water wherever you happen to live. I walked around a busy city centre last night (I wanted some new work clothes for next week - was this allowed?) and there is no way that 40% of people weren’t wearing masks inside. Anecdotal again, mind you, but you see my point.
I agree with everything you’ve said and I understand because we all only have these anecdotal experiences that are largely quite different depending on location, demographic etc. What’s happening in my town may not be happening in yours. I didn’t say 30% weren’t wearing masks inside, I said that 60% were wearing it correctly - I don’t consider a mask over the mouth but not the nose or over the chin correct, it’s the same as wearing no mask IMO.

I get what you’re saying about the vans etc but to me, being in a tier 4 area where we are instructed to go out only for essentials, having a burger outside and eating with your hands on tables closer than 2m from others is unnecessary, so is not wearing a mask outside in a busy town centre whilst not social distancing, even though we aren’t instructed to do that

Imaybe I am being a dick because my Mrs pulled me up on it today, saying that it’s not as black and white as I make it out to be, that people need a semblance of normality but I just can’t comprehend it. This is a once is a century event we are currently in and in my brain it requires us to do absolutely everything in our power to keep ourselves and others safe.

So perhaps I need to be more understanding to other views on this. I would also say the same goes for you because there are people out there like me that are absolutely petrified by this thing

I’m certainly not naive enough to think that I am always right so maybe on this occasion i’m not.
 
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