That wasn’t my point though. I wasn’t saying we should listen to them. My point was that if people that “educated” can believe that kind of BS then no wonder so many other less-educated people are too.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
That wasn’t my point though. I wasn’t saying we should listen to them. My point was that if people that “educated” can believe that kind of BS then no wonder so many other less-educated people are too.
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If we had a system where there was the remotest concept of personal responsibility then over half the citizens would be locked up. Trouble is our culture has degenerated to the point where we can always absolve our appalling behaviour by saying the fault lies with someone else. For example does it really need Boris or anyone else to tell us that we should stay local before we realise it’s the logical and sensible thing to do.
If we had a system where there was the remotest concept of personal responsibility then over half the citizens would be locked up. Trouble is our culture has degenerated to the point where we can always absolve our appalling behaviour by saying the fault lies with someone else. For example does it really need Boris or anyone else to tell us that we should stay local before we realise it’s the logical and sensible thing to do.
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Sorry - it’s a good point. But it depends who they hang around with that affects what they choose to believe to be honest, I’d like to think any intelligent person that can think independently would know vaccines have been a working method of preventing diseases for centuries and these conspiracy ideas about controlling the public etc. are just hilarious nonsense.
Any of the medical guys on here able to give a rough idea how many of the 41000 new cases yesterday will end up in hospital, or needing critical care for that matter.?
These figures are eye-watering, but I know we are doing way more testing than earlier in the year.
These figures are eye-watering, but I know we are doing way more testing than earlier in the year.
A very crude calculation is total positive tests vs total hospitalised which would be roughly around 10% obviously there is deaths and people that weren't tested or didn't go for one to take into account, also age of infected makes a huge difference.
A reasonable estimate would be between 5-10% i guess.
Lots of rumours school openings will be pushed back by a week in a lot of places. Fiance's a teacher in Hackney and keeping a keen eye on this, and these are the noises coming out of her union.
Yeah it really depends on the age profile of infections. This is the latest data released by the ONS up to the 13th December, where you have the the familiar diverging stories: most people getting infected are younger, but most people going to hospitals are older. Unfortunately, infections among the older age groups are increasing vs. the prior week. And we have every reason to expect infections among older people to increase the most over the holidays.
If we keep seeing more people 45+ getting infected then we will see larger proportions hospitalised and higher average mortality rates. The growing hospitalisation rate pre-Christmas for folks aged 85+ was a legitimate problem. For the week ending 29th November, for every 100,000 85+ year olds in the country, 139 of them were hospitalised with covid. The following week it had increased to 147, and the next week it had increased to 173. That was a couple of weeks pre-Christmas. They just weren't as well shielded as before.
If you take a rough overall estimate from cases and hospitalisation rate, there were 20k cases on the 8th December and 2,000 people hospitalised with covid on the 15th December (allowing for a c. 7-day lag). If you go back to the beginning of November, there were 16,000 cases on the 1st and and 1,700 hospitalisations on the 8th. So about 10% of people would go to hospital, and it varies somewhere in that 5-10% range depending on the age profile, the hospital situation etc. So the 40k cases a day would likely bring us up above our 3,000 hospitalisations a day peak from back in April, just next week, which fits with early reports of hospitals saying they're already above their peak.
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I doubt there will be another national lockdown as Boris had previously said it would be disastrous for the economy if that were to happen, so he’ll probably persist with the regional approach even if it ends up that all regions except the Shetland Isles are in Tier 5 or whatever.
Boris has made a u-turn basically every other day. You can’t take anything he says seriously.
I genuinely thought the Oxford vaccine would be approved today
Whether he calls it a national lockdown, or Tier 4/5....nearly everywhere in the UK will be in it Thursday or Friday imo
I don’t think they’ll do it this week personally. Think we’ll seem them persist with the tier system for another week or two unfortunately.
53K today. 414 deaths.
I think the only thing certain is the government will make the important decisions a week or so later than they should have been made, that's the consistent pattern.
Yeah pretty much.
This. It’s insane how much they continue to dither after all that’s happened.
Over 53k confirmed cases reported today. 
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Christmas lag or just the way it’s going?
I fecking hate this government.
Its a bit of both. Mental how quickly its going up.
But then again people are fecking stupid.
Yeah. I needed to go in to my local town centre to post something and it was crazy - like a normal day! People out eating food from the various vans, masks on only maybe 10% outside and probably 60% (worn correctly) inside, absolutely no social distancing. It’s a real shit show at the moment.
Thanks, both of you. @Brwned , those figures over 3000 hospitalizations are particularly concerning, even more so considering we have over 50000 new cases today.
I think I'm still in shock no further lockdown ( a proper one, at least matching those in France, Germany, Spain and Italy) has been announced.
Yep. I work with the people who produce those numbers here in Canada; it's actually even a little more complex. They look at long-term death numbers for the period in question, and also take demographic changes into account (how the population's size and make-up change due to deaths, births, and migration). Based on that, they calculate the range of expected deaths (the expected average, and the plus/minus ranges; see for example the Statistics Canada graph). The difference between the actual number of deaths and this expected average then produces the excess deaths number.
Of course, there are a few footnotes to that number. First, as I said, there is a range of expected deaths. Only one excess deaths number is provided, and that's based on the average number of expected deaths (i.e., the middle of the range); but the actual number of excess deaths could be anything between the top or bottom of the range of expected deaths. And second, the excess deaths number lacks context. Because of the lockdowns and hygiene measures, some diseases are not spreading as much as usual. For example, the flu season is reduced, and has led to reduced flu deaths. And as people are staying home, they are less likely to get into a car accident - and so on. On the other hand, due to the lockdowns, a lot of regular health care (like surgery, regular appointments and preventive screenings) have been suspended, leading to additional deaths, which are not directly caused by COVID-19 but are nonetheless caused by the pandemic.
It's hard to say what the exact impact is of each of those footnotes. But as a general indicator, the excess deaths number is much more interesting than the 'simple' number of COVID-19 deaths, which is certainly an underestimate (as people are not tested for COVID-19 consistently) and incomparable across countries (as different countries have different rules for when to attribute a death to COVID-19).
It’s just a matter of time now imho. We’re just slow and indecisive
Apparently they’re holding a meeting to discuss new tiers tomorrow, I’d be surprised if most of the uk isn’t just put into tier 4 It’s spiralling out of control again
Can we agree the guys below wish them love, prosperity and long life?
Anyway, let's move on.
Yeah they are. Hancock will be announcing the changes at 3PM tomorrow.
From what I’ve seen it’s suggesting the midlands and more of the north in tier 4.
I get the impression there's still a lot of support for a regional approach, or resentment for region x being "punished" for region y's high case numbers. People don't really want to look at it from a national perspective. Once you move to the local perspective, people adapt to that. Folks in the north saying we spent ages in the highest tier, got things back down, and now the southerners are screwing things up we get screwed again. Folks in the south west saying we've kept things under some control the entire time and you're killing our businesses all over again because folks on the other side of the country are out galivanting etc.
There's a lot of blame culture and regional politics that make the national lockdown seem less viable for many. And the government have lost a shitload more credibility from a low base just in the last month, so it's hard to know what kind of reaction it would be met with. I'm sure the behavioural science folks are worried at this point it might just push people in the other direction: if they're locking us down again, clearly lockdowns don't work, and why did they open things up at Christmas, what's all this bollocks about new strains, I'm not having it any more.
It's not a good excuse for delaying things, that only makes things worse, but it seems plausible to me that the situation is bad enough on multiple dimensions that when they do finally take action, it won't work this time round. It's hard to know who's the silent majority and loud minority any more. The mood definitely seems very different in here, which was already disproportionately "pro-lockdown".
France - 3K today. 364 deaths.
The ratio deaths/case is so different for each country.
Very difficult to interpret data and make international comparisons.
My Mate just text me and told me his GF tested positive and he cant understand how as she only saw her family and his family over christmas eve and christmas day - just the 12 people. FOR F**K SAKE!!!
I mean this is an intelligent man saying this to me. Now they have brought it to our village. Thanks man.
I mean this is an intelligent man saying this to me. Now they have brought it to our village. Thanks man.
If you control for the time delays (c. 2-3 weeks between deaths and cases), age profiles (people 65+ are over 100x more likely to die than 18-29 year olds) and comorbidities, the mortality rate is mostly very consistent across countries. The only thing that tends to influence things beyond that is how people report cases (e.g. Russia's recent acknowldegment of under-reporting). You shouldn't be looking at the cases and deaths ratio on the same day because people don't die the day they're diagnosed, they're both lagging indicators with significantly different lags.
Thanks. You're absolutely right. I have made a schoolboy error!
The way the Tories have handled this whole thing has been a disgrace. Should see them unelectable for the foreseeable but obviously that's impossible.
We had an advantage over other countries in that we're an island and we should have closed the borders way back at the start of March or even earlier even. No flights in or out (allowances of course for Brit nationals abroad etc). An extremely stringent lockdown put in place right from the start that was actually enforced. No rush to open pubs and hospitality. No summer jollies abroad to packed beaches in Spain et al. No 'it's christmas time so we'll ignore the virus exists for a few days, go mix and be happy' crap.
Just an absolute shambles.
We had an advantage over other countries in that we're an island and we should have closed the borders way back at the start of March or even earlier even. No flights in or out (allowances of course for Brit nationals abroad etc). An extremely stringent lockdown put in place right from the start that was actually enforced. No rush to open pubs and hospitality. No summer jollies abroad to packed beaches in Spain et al. No 'it's christmas time so we'll ignore the virus exists for a few days, go mix and be happy' crap.
Just an absolute shambles.
Apparently hundreds of today’s cases in Ireland have between 10 and 30 close contacts. All very well moaning about the government but that’s fecking ridiculous behaviour.
Chile said on Tuesday it had recorded its first case of the British variant of coronavirus, prompting health authorities to reinstate a mandatory quarantine period for all visitors entering the South American nation from abroad. The variant, which could be up to 70% more transmissible, has spread rapidly from Britain, where it was first identified, to countries across the globe, including Pakistan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Canada and Israel, among others.