SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Well the government's chief science advisor has quite literally told us all today that the mutated version of the virus is in all areas of the country, that there'll be a spike in cases due to the "inevitable" Christmas mixing, and that tougher restrictions will follow as a result.

So basically you can expect case numbers to rocket up in a lot of areas over the next few weeks and then the government to snap into action after it's too late to do anything about it, acting as if it's some kind of unforseen surprise, even though clearly it wont be.

And then it will probably be the people's fault for not sticking to guidelines that for most of them inexplicably aren't even due to be in place yet, or something.

We were told today that its 1,179 cases per 100,000 in our area now. It was 800 odd only a few days ago, 500 odd the week before. 300 odd the week before that. Nothing meaningful was done until 2 days ago despite the alarm bell being rung for weeks, and now cases will carry on spiking here until Christmas is out of the way as people were given no time at all to adjust plans. I'm back to helping out with medicine and food delivery from tomorrow because they've allowed it to get to a stage again where the support systems can't cope, despite making that mistake in March and having the data available this time to have avoided it. I suspect this is going to get quite bad.

The government has aimed for the bare minimum of the NHS not complately running out of capacity, and they're in very severe danger now of failing to even achieve that in large areas of the country, and yet still failing to heed the warning from their own advisor for the areas where there is still time to do something about it.
 
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A friend is a GP and said Monday she will get getting the vaccine to give out, will she be getting it??... Eerrh no.

Because why would the people trained to give this vaccine out, need protection? Idiots the lot of them.
 
Zlatan 7 said:
Stupid or uneducated question if anyone can answer it.
the new strain of virus is 70% more infectious, what does that mean and how do they get the percentage.

does it last on surfaces longer or linger in the air longer or is it simply if you had coronavirus on your hands and rubbed your nose you may not catch the virus, this new strain has a 70% more chance of you catching it with a COVID hand. Sounds funny but hope makes sense.
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I don't think they know for sure that it is more infectious, much less 70% more infectious. The 70% figure seems to be primarily so that Boris cango into locking without admitting he should have done so a long time ago.

There are concerns that some genetic changes may make it more infectious but we aren't sure yet.

https://amp.9news.com.au/article/63439cea-1e05-4d48-aceb-3a39ed7f9dcb
 
noodlehair said:
Well the government's chief science advisor has quite literally told us all today that the mutated version of the virus is in all areas of the country, that there'll be a spike in cases due to the "inevitable" Christmas mixing, and that tougher restrictions will follow as a result.

So basically you can expect case numbers to rocket up in a lot of areas over the next few weeks and then the government to snap into action after it's too late to do anything about it, acting as if it's some kind of unforseen surprise, even though clearly it wont be.

And then it will probably be the people's fault for not sticking to guidelines that for most of them inexplicably aren't even due to be in place yet, or something.

We were told today that its 1,179 cases per 100,000 in our area now. It was 800 odd only a few days ago, 500 odd the week before. 300 odd the week before that. Nothing meaningful was done until 2 days ago despite the alarm bell being rung for weeks, and now cases will carry on spiking here until Christmas is out of the way as people were given no time at all to adjust plans. I'm back to helping out with medicine and food delivery from tomorrow because they've allowed it to get to a stage again where the support systems can't cope, despite making that mistake in March and having the data available this time to have avoided it. I suspect this is going to get quite bad.

The government has aimed for the bare minimum of the NHS not complately running out of capacity, and they're in very severe danger now of failing to even achieve that in large areas of the country, and yet still failing to heed the warning from their own advisor for the areas where there is still time to do something about it.
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Yet despite their deadly incompetence they will get voted in again
 
SiRed said:
Does anybody believe this new strain is being exaggerated and used as a fear mongering tactic?
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It is being bigged up beyond the evidence so that Boris can do what he should have done a long time ago. And it might well turn out that it is far more infectious but we are still collecting the data but based on quite valid concerns.

Christmas round the corner, Vaccine in place, people relaxing on their restrictions. I have difficulty believing much of what we are told when the easiest way to gain more compliance from the masses towards the restrictions would be to suggest we are all fecked all over again.
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Why would a Tory government want to restrict you more than necessary when their instincts is to do the opposite?

Only a conspiracy theory nut would think it is "because control" for "reason".

I wish we were just left to live normal now. You catch it, you catch it. You need a ventilator, you go to hospital, no space at the hospital, you die.
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Seriously? Let people die because of some ill formulated idea about "freedom". Apart from the ethics of letting people die you do realise that your idiotic plan would produce the exact opposite as the death rate would surge as hospitals were overwhelmed. At least we might have a use for all of those refrigerated trucks stuck in Kent I suppose.

Your life, your risk, its up to you.
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Except you are risking other people's lives. I'm sure you must know that.
 
Saw that WHO said vaccine is still good for the strain.

But a bit pissed it's referred to the "UK strain". Only Boris could want to take claim of a virus to cover the fact he over promised and didn't want to look worse..... and think it was a good idea. The fecking moron
 
LARulz said:
That's really worried me. My fiance is flying there (from elsewhere) and then coming here on Jan 10th. Now realistically they won't resume flights by then. I know they say it's only banned coming from the UK, but realistically flights going to the UK will be cancelled as well.

The visa she is on requires us to get married in a short time frame. It was hard enough with Tier 4 banning weddings but her not even being in the country is a fecking double whammy
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LARulz said:
That's really worried me. My fiance is flying there (from elsewhere) and then coming here on Jan 10th. Now realistically they won't resume flights by then. I know they say it's only banned coming from the UK, but realistically flights going to the UK will be cancelled as well.

The visa she is on requires us to get married in a short time frame. It was hard enough with Tier 4 banning weddings but her not even being in the country is a fecking double whammy
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That's a very sticky situation. Agree with samsky's advice. Try contacting your local authorities, these being such extraordinary circumstances maybe they'll extend the visa. Although I know immigration services in the UK are a bitch to deal with.
 
Shakesey said:
So, apparently it isn't a new strain, just a new variant. There is a difference, but don't ask me what it is. Yet, most websites call it a new strain. Can someone shed some light on this?

https://ewn.co.za/2020/12/21/covid-19-here-s-the-difference-between-a-variant-and-a-strain
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Can't remember a formal definition, but informally both terms are used interchangeably in my microbio lab. Especially given that we're dealing with a virus here, I can't imagine a difference, an the article doesn't get into it. From that article, the way the professor is talking, a strain seems to be a variant with more changes than a normal variant?
 
Shakesey said:
So, apparently it isn't a new strain, just a new variant. There is a difference, but don't ask me what it is. Yet, most websites call it a new strain. Can someone shed some light on this?

https://ewn.co.za/2020/12/21/covid-19-here-s-the-difference-between-a-variant-and-a-strain
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From what I read there is no widely agreed definition as to what constitutes a new virus strain, so strain and varient seem to be used interchangeably. I could be wrong of course.

@Pogue Mahone @Tony Babangida @berbatrick - any info re. strain vs variant?

Edit: just seen that @berbatrick has already answered.
 
prateik said:
Do you know if this applies to the Oxford vaccine as well?
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The Oxford vaccine presents the spike as well. It's technically different to the Moderna, Pfizer, Novavax, J&J designs which all incorporate a change that basically makes the spike show more of its surface when injected into the body. I guess not showing so much surface could mean the Astra Zeneca will have more problems as the virus mutates - but who knows, maybe another difference in the design will mean it does better. All the teams will be testing the new variant in the lab to see how it behaves.

This time, though it's viewed as a big mutation by coronavirus standards, it still only affects a small part of the virus. So the vaccine people aren't expecting problems, even if they are preparing for them.
 
berbatrick said:
Can't remember a formal definition, but informally both terms are used interchangeably in my microbio lab. Especially given that we're dealing with a virus here, I can't imagine a difference, an the article doesn't get into it. From that article, the way the professor is talking, a strain seems to be a variant with more changes than a normal variant?
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My understanding is that you can only use strain if the virus has a well defined difference in biology compared to the wild-type. So at this point it is correct to call the new UK lineage a variant, but it could be designated a new strain at some point in the future. Pretty academic but it can be a useful distinction.
 
LARulz said:
Saw that WHO said vaccine is still good for the strain.

But a bit pissed it's referred to the "UK strain". Only Boris could want to take claim of a virus to cover the fact he over promised and didn't want to look worse..... and think it was a good idea. The fecking moron
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Where’s Donald to all it the “Brit Flu”?
 
Roger said:
With regard to Boris Johnson and this Governments handling of this crisis I suggest you take the time to read my other posts. If you had taken the time you would know that I don't need a lecture from you or anyone else regarding Doris and his cohorts trustworthiness. As for you being a conspiracy theorist I have read some of your posts. If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then it's probably a duck.

For your information it is not the Government that is keeping me alive or safe for that matter. I'm doing that all by myself.

You have responded that you are not conspiracy theorist however your previous contributions to this thread suggest otherwise. I also suggested you are not very bright. It is noted that you have not denied this. Your comments regarding Chris Whitty have absolutely no basis is reality but then that's not one of your strong points, is it.
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Sorry. I really can't understand what this sentence means!
 
Wibble said:
It is being bigged up beyond the evidence so that Boris can do what he should have done a long time ago. And it might well turn out that it is far more infectious but we are still collecting the data but based on quite valid concerns.



Why would a Tory government want to restrict you more than necessary when their instincts is to do the opposite?

Only a conspiracy theory nut would think it is "because control" for "reason".



Seriously? Let people die because of some ill formulated idea about "freedom". Apart from the ethics of letting people die you do realise that your idiotic plan would produce the exact opposite as the death rate would surge as hospitals were overwhelmed. At least we might have a use for all of those refrigerated trucks stuck in Kent I suppose.



Except you are risking other people's lives. I'm sure you must know that.
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Maybe, but only if the other person is risking their life by being out and about anyway. If everyone is aware of the risks, nobody can complain. Dog eat dog
 
Smores said:
So looking at that chart the fact it's winning out over the other variant is a given.

Is it causing more cases than would have otherwise been seen? Or is it replacing other variants?

The claims would suggest the former but then why has the number of cases involving previously known variants reduced so significantly?
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Because we've been in lockdown
 
SiRed said:
Maybe, but only if the other person is risking their life by being out and about anyway. If everyone is aware of the risks, nobody can complain. Dog eat dog
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Don’t be so stupid. Imagine if all the nurses were shielding. Who’s gonna help you if you or a family member need to go to hospital?
 
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SiRed said:
Maybe, but only if the other person is risking their life by being out and about anyway. If everyone is aware of the risks, nobody can complain. Dog eat dog
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Just as I thought you couldn't be more of an idiot you exceed expectations, well almost. Not quite on par with the liquid microchip in the vaccine idea you put forward, in a previous post, but pretty damn close.
 
Wibble said:
I don't think they know for sure that it is more infectious, much less 70% more infectious. The 70% figure seems to be primarily so that Boris cango into locking without admitting he should have done so a long time ago.

There are concerns that some genetic changes may make it more infectious but we aren't sure yet.

https://amp.9news.com.au/article/63439cea-1e05-4d48-aceb-3a39ed7f9dcb
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The WHO said as much yesterday. They have no evidence that it is any more infectious yet and wont quote figures until they do. They also disagree that it's out of control as the UK has said. The 70% figure seems to have come from it becoming the dominant variant in a number of areas? However, there is clearly something to it or so many countries wouldn't have cut us off.

Even if it is 70% more infectious, it still needs people to be in close contact to spread. It cant fly.
 
Smores said:
So looking at that chart the fact it's winning out over the other variant is a given.

Is it causing more cases than would have otherwise been seen? Or is it replacing other variants?

The claims would suggest the former but then why has the number of cases involving previously known variants reduced so significantly?
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Think of it as little fires in a field of straw. Each blade of straw is a person and the little fires are clusters of cases . These little fires usually burn themselves out, because the straw is generally quite sparse (lockdown/social distancing etc) unless a spark is thrown up and lands in a different patch of dense straw. When a spark lands in one of these patches, every blade that gets burned by the fire that spark starts will be the same variant as the spark that started it.

There’s two possible scenarios here.

One is that one of these sparks starts a particularly sparky fire, flinging sparks much further and more rapidly than usual. That will start more of these unusually sparky fires. And so on. Rinse and repeat.

The alternative scenario is that a spark lands in an area of the field where there is an unusually large patch of straw that is very closely packed together (a region where people are crap at social distancing) so the fire keeps spreading and spreading until you have a much larger fire than usual.

In both scenarios you end up with a single spark causing the majority of the burning straw at a given moment in time. One is a property of the spark, the other is a property of the straw.

Think I’ve torn the arse out of that analogy now but hopefully it makes sense!
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Think of it as little fires in a field of straw. Each blade of straw is a person and the little fires are clusters of cases . These little fires usually burn themselves out, because the straw is generally quite sparse (lockdown/social distancing etc) unless a spark is thrown up and lands in a different patch of dense straw. When a spark lands in one of these patches, every blade that gets burned by the fire that spark starts will be the same variant as the spark that started it.

There’s two possible scenarios here.

One is that one of these sparks starts a particularly sparky fire, flinging sparks much further and more rapidly than usual. That will start more of these unusually sparky fires. And so on. Rinse and repeat.

The alternative scenario is that a spark lands in an area of the field where there is an unusually large patch of straw that is very closely packed together (a region where people are crap at social distancing) so the fire keeps spreading and spreading until you have a much larger fire than usual.

In both scenarios you end up with a single spark causing the majority of the burning straw at a given moment in time. One is a property of the spark, the other is a property of the straw.

Think I’ve torn the arse out of that analogy now but hopefully it makes sense!
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That's a good one!
 
Roger said:
Just as I thought you couldn't be more of an idiot you exceed expectations, well almost. Not quite on par with the liquid microchip in the vaccine idea you put forward, in a previous post, but pretty damn close.
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I take no offence in being called an idiot from someone who labels the whole UK population as idiots for a minority of people not following the guidelines. Thanks though Rog!
 
SiRed said:
Great question, i have no answer.
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Maybe think on that. It’s not just people who want to be out and about who have to go out every day to work or to provide assistance to someone else.

another example; people who are shielding. How do you think they get their shopping? It doesn’t magically appear.
 
Some suggestions that children are more susceptible to this form of the virus and therefore explaining why schools are accounting for a large part of the spread.

It's amazing how much the Johnson govt cares about keeping schools open yet has zero appetite to enforce social distancing or PPE for students/staff. Or roll out the vaccine to teachers, who are frankly being put in harms way.
 
golden_blunder said:
Maybe think on that. It’s not just people who want to be out and about who have to go out every day to work or to provide assistance to someone else.

another example; people who are shielding. How do you think they get their shopping? It doesn’t magically appear.
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Well since the start of the pandemic i have been getting my food shopping online and delivered. I have never done it before but i cant imagine myself in one of those supermarkets ever again. Its so much easier AND if i buy something that they dont have in stock, they send me a better version of what i wanted. So 1 positive of all this is it has revolutionised how i do my shopping.
 
Suv666 said:
That's a very sticky situation. Agree with samsky's advice. Try contacting your local authorities, these being such extraordinary circumstances maybe they'll extend the visa. Although I know immigration services in the UK are a bitch to deal with.
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Yeah that is definitely the plan. But unfortunately the new hurdle of getting her in the country has cropped up :(

I know this variant is very bad, not denying it. But the wording Boris and co used (when this has been around a couple months and already global) was ridiculous. I am convinced they only said it like that to make themselves not look bad for 'cancelling Christmas'.... but forgot the rest of the world will pounce and make us the scapegoat
 
SiRed said:
Well since the start of the pandemic i have been getting my food shopping online and delivered. I have never done it before but i cant imagine myself in one of those supermarkets ever again. Its so much easier AND if i buy something that they dont have in stock, they send me a better version of what i wanted. So 1 positive of all this is it has revolutionised how i do my shopping.
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Do you think all those people picking your shopping and delivering it to you want to be out during a pandemic?
 
Eugenius said:
It's amazing how much the Johnson govt cares about keeping schools open yet has zero appetite to enforce social distancing or PPE for students/staff.
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Keeping schools open is as much about keeping jobs going than anything else, as soon as schools close it then forces a childcare option at home for parents, and not everyone can work from home. It's an illusion to believe that they have some consideration for children's education.
 
11101 said:
The WHO said as much yesterday. They have no evidence that it is any more infectious yet and wont quote figures until they do. They also disagree that it's out of control as the UK has said. The 70% figure seems to have come from it becoming the dominant variant in a number of areas? However, there is clearly something to it or so many countries wouldn't have cut us off.

Even if it is 70% more infectious, it still needs people to be in close contact to spread. It cant fly.
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The BMJ published figures which showed that 1108 cases out of over 1.5million cases recorded from late September could be attributed to the new variant. That’s 0.07%.They also revealed that there have been 4000 variants in that time. Even Hancock stated in Parliament that there was no reason to suggest that it was the cause of recent spikes in positive tests.
 
F-Red said:
Keeping schools open is as much about keeping jobs going than anything else, as soon as schools close it then forces a childcare option at home for parents, and not everyone can work from home. It's an illusion to believe that they have some consideration for children's education.
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Of course they care about children's education. If you accuse them of only caring about the economy then an educated population is essential to that.
 
Wibble said:
Yet despite their deadly incompetence they will get voted in again
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Going by this thread and people's willingness and actually bizarre determination to blame and judge other people, rather than look at the ones making the decisions, I think it's likely they will be.

There is only one place to point the finger at this point. The first time round you could put the mistakes down to all the unknown factors with the virus and the fact any plan was basically a guessing game. This time they have had the data and information to make informed decisions and yet here at least we are somehow in a worse position than in March both in terms of the lives that will be lost and people's jobs, wellbeing, etc.
 
I’m not locking down again. We’ve done it twice already & we have had 9 months of restrictions. It’s clearly not working.

This governing is not robbing me of my late twenties. House piss ups it is.

feck Boris.
 
Brwned said:
So if you're saying it's fine to allow household mixing on the provision that they lockdown after Christmas, then ultimately I suspect you'll be in support of the strategy because I think that's a very likely outcome. NI have led the way on that because the situation is grave enough to make that borderline politically palatable, and they're just going to communicate it differently in the other nations. It was first suggested by the Welsh First minister a good while back. In which case this would be quibbling about communications. If that is the case then yep my apologies, I misunderstood!
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Communications are absolutely vital for public compliance, understating and controlling the virus. I would not describe it as a quibble! :)

point is the outcome has changed, and although you are guessing the outcome will be lockdown after Xmas, once again the communications are mixed, unclear and will not be strategic, but one again last minute changes.

Initially, it was announced that lockdown eased from 2nd December and we had 5 days mixing over Xmas. Now that has changed. It was clear that announcing both of those eases in restrictions would be a disaster, even without a new strain. Look at hospital admission stats in the run up to that announcement and beyond.

I struggle to think how the UK govenrment could have handled this any worse. Highest number of deaths in Europe and worst economic hit.
 
Eugenius said:
Some suggestions that children are more susceptible to this form of the virus and therefore explaining why schools are accounting for a large part of the spread.

It's amazing how much the Johnson govt cares about keeping schools open yet has zero appetite to enforce social distancing or PPE for students/staff. Or roll out the vaccine to teachers, who are frankly being put in harms way.
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Keeping the schools open is beyond stupid.

There is to be no mixing outside your household, but you must still send your children to school ....feck off Johnson.
 
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