SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Stanley Road said:
That's just ridiculous. Wear masks, dont mix, keep distance. It's not that fkin hard.
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This is getting boring now. It obviously is hard for some people as otherwise everyone would do it, and again, nearly everyone who can do it has been. I literally don't know anyone who hasn't been doing everything they can, apart from a few who went to the BLM march because they decided it was an important issue, and a few who want to see their families at Christmas because they are genuinely worried for their wellbeing.

Making ignorant and stupid statements and judging people without being able to show any empathy whatsoever, does nothing to help anyone. Give it a fecking rest.
 
Dancfc said:
At some point we have to look past Boris and address the elephant in the room, that being a significant number of the populace put their full trust into him not once (Brexit) but twice (the last election).

Boris never at any point tried (or was unable) to hide what a nasty piece of work he is yet people voted for him anyway.
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Yes well that's very true but again it does nothing to help people through a pandemic.

I think anyone who voted for him should be ashamed of themselves really, but it's gone now, and its pretty important to hold him to account when thousands of people's lives are dependent on it. Instead of wasting energy moaning about a few desperate people trying to catch a train or buy a coffee, as if it somehow makes them the devil.
 
The UK seems so isolated now. Numerous countries banning flights from the UK and from Jan 1st, Brits won't be able to travel to Europe for non-essential trips because of Brexit.

It's all so weird.
 
4r5ghg.jpg
 
Insulting another member
noodlehair said:
This is getting boring now. It obviously is hard for some people as otherwise everyone would do it, and again, nearly everyone who can do it has been. I literally don't know anyone who hasn't been doing everything they can, apart from a few who went to the BLM march because they decided it was an important issue, and a few who want to see their families at Christmas because they are genuinely worried for their wellbeing.

Making ignorant and stupid statements and judging people without being able to show any empathy whatsoever, does nothing to help anyone. Give it a fecking rest.
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noodlehair said:
Yes well that's very true but again it does nothing to help people through a pandemic.

I think anyone who voted for him should be ashamed of themselves really, but it's gone now, and its pretty important to hold him to account when thousands of people's lives are dependent on it. Instead of wasting energy moaning about a few desperate people trying to catch a train or buy a coffee, as if it somehow makes them the devil.
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If I catch COVID it will not be Boris or one of his cohorts that give it to me it will be a tosser with a similar attitude to yours. All of us are suffering in this pandemic but what the feck.....how many more times does wash your hands, keep your distance, wear a mask and stay in your bubble have to be parroted before folk take notice and accept responsibility.

And sorry but I reckon you are telling porkies if with hand on heart you are really trying to claim that you have only had contact with those who have obeyed the rules/guidelines as I know only too well that many have pushed the boundaries as far as they can. I do so wish we had adopted what I understand to have been the Chinese method and physically locked people into there homes and put up roadblocks to stop citizens moving from place to place and instead of our police adopting a softly softly approach hammered transgressors because the bottom line is that the selfish stupidity of a segment of the population is killing people.
 
esmufc07 said:
Surely we’re headed for another prolonged full lockdown whilst we vaccinate as many people as we possibly can?
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It feels inevitable really, seems like it’s spiralling out of control at present. I’d really like to see the government making more provision for kids to be home schooled now while we try and get it back under some level of control. No point in restrictions on families if kids are allowed to mix with 30 other kids.
 
noodlehair said:
This is getting boring now. It obviously is hard for some people as otherwise everyone would do it, and again, nearly everyone who can do it has been. I literally don't know anyone who hasn't been doing everything they can, apart from a few who went to the BLM march because they decided it was an important issue, and a few who want to see their families at Christmas because they are genuinely worried for their wellbeing.

Making ignorant and stupid statements and judging people without being able to show any empathy whatsoever, does nothing to help anyone. Give it a fecking rest.
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Ok, what's your solution to it all?
 
noodlehair said:
To be clear, I don't think people generally should be left to make their own judgement, because it's a road to disaster and the eventual outcome will be a lockdown anyway. I don't really disagree with you on any of that.

The point is more that when you have a government who does stuff like pretends Christmas can go ahead until literally just before Christmas, and then suddenly changes their mind and imposes a quarantine on half the country and gives people only hours to escape it, then what that is doing is forcing a lot of people into a position where they have to make their own judgements, or do so out of panic. Going down any route where you end up blaming and criticising people for behaving exactly as you can expect large groups of people to behave, is as pointless as it is useless.

The rules are quite inconsistent as I have found out through trying to do my job, and some of the logic behind them is beyond any sense. People at our work were literally getting emails threatening them to not keep their kids out of school the week before the end of term, but at the same time being told they were at high risk of infection if they sent their kids into school due to that being the main area of infection. As a result several used their own judgement to not send their kids in. If you give people tripe to eat and tell them its pancakes, some of them wont eat it. You are pushing people to make their own minds up.

I don't buy that anything happened on Friday to "suddenly" make this new strain more of a problem, because I've been monitering the cases in my area every week, and it's been VERY obvious there is a problem that needed to be addressed for well over a month now, and there have been plenty of people saying it too. Hosptials at nearly 90% capacity, and cases that have gone up more than 10 fold in two months...I mean anyone that can count could have decided before yesterday that something needed to be done.
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I agree with the general principle that criticising people for things that we know will happen is stupid and often pointless. I just think that's a very generous and dangerous position to take, and even if it seems unfair, individual criticism helps moderate that behaviour so it is not unreasonable. That is one of the social roles of criticism, reminding communities of what we believe is acceptable or not. I do accept that people were right to hear that news and rush out of London. I wouldn't be completely shocked if one of my friends was on that train because there's definitely something of a split among my London friends on the last couple of weeks. I would have to tell them I think that's absolutely reckless.

I totally agree with you that the government make it worse with a ridiculous communication strategy. But in your great burning building metaphor you do make the point that maybe it's better to stop following the clown. The government stopped supporting people properly on this over the last two weeks so people were forced to take more responsibility into their own hands. To me they have only made it worse and that's very worrying. Enough of a worry to justify well-meaning but firm criticism of seemingly innocuous choices, IMO.

Wibble said:
What are they comparing this new variant to? Are they sure it is a different Ro? Or just a different R? If they are comparing it to other variants in areas that were locked down harder then the difference could just be R due to different conditions.
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Now they haven't said for sure it is a different R0 but they have moderate confidence than it is. They're just comparing it to other major strains. Given they're comparing in the same place over the same time and they have some idea of the biological differences, they think the really explosive growth of this particular strain has to have something to do with transmissibility. But we need better tests to evaluate that fully.

sammsky1 said:
Also, anyone know exactly why this variant is more virulent and what adaptations covid19 has made to itself to become much more contagious?

Eg: Has it grown wings for itself? Does it fly further through the air?
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It is not about how it transmits between humans but how it works within the body. It binds more easily and appears to replicate more quickly which creates a higher viral load because of some structural changes to the receptor binding domain (RBD). Higher viral load means more transmission in general.
 
Red Star One said:
Not sure if this was posted before but that’s a great read on the current state of knowledge about new variants of covid and offers some good insights https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...om-sets-alarms-its-importance-remains-unclear
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So although it might be more infectious we don't know yet. What we do know is that Boris is bigging this up to cover for the fact he allowed London and the SE to be less restricted than was sensible and we are now paying the price.
 
Wibble said:
So although it might be more infectious we don't know yet. What we do know is that Boris is bigging this up to cover for the fact he allowed London and the SE to be less restricted than was sensible and we are now paying the price.
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It came directly from NERVTAG in fairness. You can see the meeting they had and the statements they made are alarming. They should come with heavy caveats but it's appropriate to take a cautious response to that. You can see in the doc PHE and NERVTAG agreed on the policy response to it too. PHE confirmed that on Andrew Marr yesterday too. You can't just put this down to Boris.

https://khub.net/documents/13593956...b-161f-2fd5-1030-32b6ab467896?t=1608491166921
 
Brwned said:
It is not about how it transmits between humans but how it works within the body. It binds more easily and appears to replicate more quickly which creates a higher viral load because of some structural changes to the receptor binding domain (RBD).Higher viral load means more transmission in general.
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Mhm. Is there not some things about higher viral load also means higher chance to get sicker?
 
No doubt Boris has ballsed this up and so will expectedly jump to put this squarely on the new strain to divert attention for what would anyway have been a disaster in the making.

But also I think there’s clearly truth in the impact this new strain could have.
 
noodlehair said:
What the feck are you on about? Where have I said anything is not my responsibility?

I simply think it is quite important during a world pandemic that the people in charge aren't complete idiots who have no regard for anyone else's wellbeing, and I don't think that's what we have unfortunately .

In fact at this point if you think Boris is in any way competent and not a dangerous person to have in charge of managing a pandemic, then I think you have to be somewhat mad. They guy came on national television in March and TOLD you to go visit a covid ward and shake hands with everyone there.

Blaming every single other person in the country for not thinking or doing exactly what you want them to do is quite a strange way to approach what is going on. A lot of people actually need help or support and would probably behave a lot more safely if they got it, and a vast majority are doing absolutely everything they can within the realms of what they need to in order to survive.

The only thing i can think with some of the weird posts in this thread is that some of you still aren't even living in the real world and seeing what is really going on out there. Just judging from the odd photo being thrown around London for example has been an absolute ghost town for months. There aren't people just roaming the streets in massive packs. The only thing that's been busy is the trains, which is because its a massively populated city with many people in it who still have no choice but to travel around. It's actually quite spooky and anxiety enducing to walk around there due to how dead it is. The chaos last night was caused by making a ridiculous announcement at a ridiciulous time, 3 days after telling everyone that it was something that defintiely wouldn't happen.
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I totally agree with you that the people in charge are complete idiots and and largely to blame for the situation we find ourselves in. The decision not to restrict travel into the UK from countries earlier in the year, a lockdown brought in too late, the Dominic Cummings eyesight test, attempting to force children back to school before the September break, the eat out to help the virus, Johnson telling people to get back into the office and then being forced to backtrack as infection rates started to increase.

Falsely raising people hopes regarding Christmas was incredibly cruel and stupid. It looked like we were heading for an absolute disaster following Christmas and the brick of reality has hit Johnson full in the face. The so called recent discovery of this new strain has given the Government an excuse to back down and whether this new strain is largely responsible for the spike in cases is debatable, however the fact remains that cases are increasing at an alarming rate. More importantly it has dealt the Government a get out of jail free card and has forced them to do the right thing albeit in a characteristically bungled way. Johnson not loosing face is far more important than peoples lives.

Raising infection rates are not just down to Government incompitence though, the population also has a crucial role to play. The virus is spread by person to person contact, that fact has been consistent right from the beginning, thats not difficult to understand, even if advice from this bunch of idiots has been. The advice and rules brought in by the Government have been contradictory and confusing to say the least, but the same cant be said regarding advice from the medical advisors which has been largely consistent throughout this, apart from the wearing of masks in the early stages. The Government has clearly ignored the medical advice on numerous occasions.

The scenes at London Stations are not entirely down to the Government though and is a little naive if you don't mind me saying. Many of those people packing those trains have decided that their Christmas will not be disrupted no matter what. The announcement on Friday would have come as a bitter disappointment to many but these are adults not children. It appears that many people are prepared to put themselves and other people, including those people who need to use the transport system to go to work. People traveling to and from work being told being told that social distancing would not be possible and advised to not travel if they feel uncomfortable. This is not an isolated incident either, just cast your mind back to the summer and the bank holiday weekend. Beaches and other tourist spots rammed full despite people being asked not to travel. The timing of the announcement and the fact that the tier 4 and restrictions should have been brought in with immediate effect was a glaring act of stupidity but that doesn't excuse the stupidity and deliberate acts of individual selfishness by people who are not prepared to have Christmas disrupted.
 
Brwned said:
It came directly from NERVTAG in fairness. You can see the meeting they had and the statements they made are alarming. They should come with heavy caveats but it's appropriate to take a cautious response to that. You can see in the doc PHE and NERVTAG agreed on the policy response to it too. PHE confirmed that on Andrew Marr yesterday too. You can't just put this down to Boris.

https://khub.net/documents/135939561/338928724/SARS-CoV-2+variant+under+investigation,+meeting+minutes.pdf/962e866b-161f-2fd5-1030-32b6ab467896?t=1608491166921
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I’m still sceptical tbh. One of their main reasons for deciding this has increased transmissibility is the fact we’ve seen exponential growth despite “lockdown”. Based on what we’ve seen/heard about the reality of this “lockdown” in London/SE you’d have to question their logic here. It was only a week or two back when someone in this thread talked about not seeing a single soul on the Isle of Sheppy wearing masks and having the piss taken out of them for wearing one in a shop. That’s Kent for you.

The stuff around viral load is all very speculative too. Hopefully this will all get cleared up over the next few days. I think they’ve done the right thing in erring on the side of caution but there’s a huge price to pay for going down this path.
 
Red Star One said:
Not sure if this was posted before but that’s a great read on the current state of knowledge about new variants of covid and offers some good insights https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...om-sets-alarms-its-importance-remains-unclear
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That’s a good read. This bit is interesting.

scientists say B.1.1.7 may already be much more widespread. Dutch researchers have found it in a sample from one patient taken in early December, Dutch health minister Hugo de Jonge wrote in a letter to Parliament today. They will try to find out how the patient became infected and if there are related cases. Other countries may well have the variant as well, says epidemiologist William Hanage of the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health; the United Kingdom may just have picked it up first because that country has the most sophisticated SARS-CoV-2 genomic monitoring in the world. Many countries have little or no sequencing.
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Pogue Mahone said:
I’m still sceptical tbh. One of their main reasons for deciding this has increased transmissibility is the fact we’ve seen exponential growth despite “lockdown”. Based on what we’ve seen/heard about the reality of this “lockdown” in London/SE you’d have to question their logic here. It was only a week or two back when someone in this thread talked about not seeing a single soul on the Isle of Sheppy wearing masks and having the piss taken out of them for wearing one in a shop. That’s Kent for you.

The stuff around viral load is all very speculative too. Hopefully this will all get cleared up over the next few days. I think they’ve done the right thing in erring on the side of caution but there’s a huge price to pay for going down this path.
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Because if it isn't a new more virulent strain causing the growth it will further undermine confidence in the science and government competence?
 
Classical Mechanic said:
Because if it isn't a new more virulent strain causing the growth it will further undermine confidence in the science and government competence?
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I was more thinking about the short term effect of travel bans on your supply chains, with imminent Brexit feckery making a bad situation catastrophic. Which makes it a hell of a lot less likely that any of this is a Tory plot to cover their arses for failure of the tiered lockdown approach.
 
Brwned said:
It came directly from NERVTAG in fairness. You can see the meeting they had and the statements they made are alarming. They should come with heavy caveats but it's appropriate to take a cautious response to that. You can see in the doc PHE and NERVTAG agreed on the policy response to it too. PHE confirmed that on Andrew Marr yesterday too. You can't just put this down to Boris.

https://khub.net/documents/13593956...b-161f-2fd5-1030-32b6ab467896?t=1608491166921
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But Boris is using the possibility of increased infectiousness and running with it to cover for his incompetence. If it actually turns out to be more infectious it is win win for him.
 
Wibble said:
But Boris is using the possibility of increased infectiousness and running with it to cover for his incompetence. If it actually turns out to be more infectious it is win win for him.
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None of this is win-win for Boris. A u-turn just a few days before Christmas makes him look incompetent (which he is), pisses off his own party and makes the public less likely to follow government advice.

I think they really are spooked by the data on this new strain, as I think Boris would have risked a lot to get through Christmas as planned and then go full lockdown from Boxing Day. The fact he hasn't been able to wait that long doesn't bode well, in my opinion.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
None of this is win-win for Boris. A u-turn just a few days before Christmas makes him look incompetent (which he is), pisses off his own party and makes the public less likely to follow government advice.

I think they really are spooked by the data on this new strain, as I think Boris would have risked a lot to get through Christmas as planned and then go full lockdown from Boxing Day. The fact he hasn't been able to wait that long doesn't bode well, in my opinion.
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Agreed. And, as I said above, the effect this is having on freight in and out of Britain with no deal Brexit looming makes this the Tory’s worst nightmare, rather than any kind of lucky break.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
None of this is win-win for Boris. A u-turn just a few days before Christmas makes him look incompetent (which he is), pisses off his own party and makes the public less likely to follow government advice.

I think they really are spooked by the data on this new strain, as I think Boris would have risked a lot to get through Christmas as planned and then go full lockdown from Boxing Day. The fact he hasn't been able to wait that long doesn't bode well, in my opinion.
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They're spooked by the increase in cases, whether that's down to a new strain really is debatable. They chanced it but once they've seen that putting the South East under tier 2 with retail booming during an upward trend has gone spectacularly wrong what else could they do?

The route they've gone for is far less damaging to them than hospitals being overwhelmed and a death boom just before vaccine roll out.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
I’m still sceptical tbh. One of their main reasons for deciding this has increased transmissibility is the fact we’ve seen exponential growth despite “lockdown”. Based on what we’ve seen/heard about the reality of this “lockdown” in London/SE you’d have to question their logic here. It was only a week or two back when someone in this thread talked about not seeing a single soul on the Isle of Sheppy wearing masks and having the piss taken out of them for wearing one in a shop. That’s Kent for you.

The stuff around viral load is all very speculative too. Hopefully this will all get cleared up over the next few days. I think they’ve done the right thing in erring on the side of caution but there’s a huge price to pay for going down this path.
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Agreed on both. I'm not saying there is no reason for any scepticism, but principally the scepticism is on the validity of the limited research carried out by PHE and NERVTAG that informed the PM. His response to that meeting is 100% legitimate. If he got it wrong in the other direction it would be a much bigger problem.

This is what they said about the timing of the spread. It is not only that growth happened during lockdown while it didn't elsewhere, but this particular strain grew much quicker than the others at a time when there was already high transmission. They haven't noticed that happening before. New strains only developed without a selective advantage when there was low transmission, as far as they're aware. And like you say the UK track this more than others. So it's the fact it went against the grain both wags in terms of transmission.

It was noted that whilst previous variants have successfully emerged in periods of low prevalence without clear evidence of having a selective advantage, the emergence and subsequent dominance of VUI-202012/01 in a period of relatively high prevalence suggests VUI-202012/01 does have a selective advantage over other variants.

It was noted that VUI-202012/01 has demonstrated exponential growth during a period when national lockdown measures were in place.
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Agreed it is a very serious choice with a lot of risks.
 
Roger said:
I totally agree with you that the people in charge are complete idiots and and largely to blame for the situation we find ourselves in. The decision not to restrict travel into the UK from countries earlier in the year, a lockdown brought in too late, the Dominic Cummings eyesight test, attempting to force children back to school before the September break, the eat out to help the virus, Johnson telling people to get back into the office and then being forced to backtrack as infection rates started to increase.

Falsely raising people hopes regarding Christmas was incredibly cruel and stupid. It looked like we were heading for an absolute disaster following Christmas and the brick of reality has hit Johnson full in the face. The so called recent discovery of this new strain has given the Government an excuse to back down and whether this new strain is largely responsible for the spike in cases is debatable, however the fact remains that cases are increasing at an alarming rate. More importantly it has dealt the Government a get out of jail free card and has forced them to do the right thing albeit in a characteristically bungled way. Johnson not loosing face is far more important than peoples lives.

Raising infection rates are not just down to Government incompitence though, the population also has a crucial role to play. The virus is spread by person to person contact, that fact has been consistent right from the beginning, thats not difficult to understand, even if advice from this bunch of idiots has been. The advice and rules brought in by the Government have been contradictory and confusing to say the least, but the same cant be said regarding advice from the medical advisors which has been largely consistent throughout this, apart from the wearing of masks in the early stages. The Government has clearly ignored the medical advice on numerous occasions.

The scenes at London Stations are not entirely down to the Government though and is a little naive if you don't mind me saying. Many of those people packing those trains have decided that their Christmas will not be disrupted no matter what. The announcement on Friday would have come as a bitter disappointment to many but these are adults not children. It appears that many people are prepared to put themselves and other people, including those people who need to use the transport system to go to work. People traveling to and from work being told being told that social distancing would not be possible and advised to not travel if they feel uncomfortable. This is not an isolated incident either, just cast your mind back to the summer and the bank holiday weekend. Beaches and other tourist spots rammed full despite people being asked not to travel. The timing of the announcement and the fact that the tier 4 and restrictions should have been brought in with immediate effect was a glaring act of stupidity but that doesn't excuse the stupidity and deliberate acts of individual selfishness by people who are not prepared to have Christmas disrupted.
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Agree with a lot of this, if not all.
 
I know there was talk about mass testing being available to anyone in tier 3 areas, how has that gone as I've not heard it mentioned much? I'm in tier 4 now, so surely mass testing should be available? My mum and brother are still going into work and haven't been tested at all, so would be good to sort out a test for them even if they have no symptoms.
 
Brwned said:
Agreed on both. I'm not saying there is no reason for any scepticism, but principally the scepticism is on the validity of the limited research carried out by PHE and NERVTAG that informed the PM. His response to that meeting is 100% legitimate. If he got it wrong in the other direction it would be a much bigger problem.

This is what they said about the timing of the spread. It is not only that growth happened during lockdown while it didn't elsewhere, but this particular strain grew much quicker than the others at a time when there was already high transmission. They haven't noticed that happening before. New strains only developed without a selective advantage when there was low transmission, as far as they're aware. And like you say the UK track this more than others. So it's the fact it went against the grain both wags in terms of transmission.



Agreed it is a very serious choice with a lot of risks.
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I don’t know how valid the research done on the new strain is yet, and I’m sure there’s plenty to do to verify recent claims which are based just on very preliminary results. However, just looking at number of new cases in the last week per BBC, just put in a handful of areas around the south east and London. It’s clear to see that:

A) Case rates have risen significantly in the last 7 days alone.
B) In many cases we are talking a doubling of the virus within 7 days.
C) I’ve been following at least the few areas relevant to me where my family and relatives live for many months and I have definitely not at any point seen an increase this fast, even during our weakest period of lockdown.

That to me says there must be something to this. Also given how Europe has reacted.

Do we know how much is due to the new virus vs, let’s say, weather related effects as it’s colder now, or lack of following guidelines, or pure random luck on circles it’s transmitting - I don’t know. But the prominence of it, across the whole SE and London where it’s factually known the new strain is proportionally higher than in the rest of the country, is telling.

Doesn’t excuse Boris and his shit show of handling this but I genuinely struggle to see this being anything other than real.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
I was more thinking about the short term effect of travel bans on your supply chains, with imminent Brexit feckery making a bad situation catastrophic.
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Having turned on the work laptop this morning, I can confirm the effect has been almost immediate. Going to be an interesting couple of days.
 
Brwned said:
It is not about how it transmits between humans but how it works within the body. It binds more easily and appears to replicate more quickly which creates a higher viral load because of some structural changes to the receptor binding domain (RBD). Higher viral load means more transmission in general.
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Thanks for explaining. You’ve made many informative and excellent posts recently in this thread!
 
If these restrictions do last for months, thats it for English clubs in Europe right?
 
First time I've been in a UK shop for 3 months and I am baffled. Masks everywhere but social distancing has gone out the window it seems. Can't believe people are browsing Tesco for fecking deals on cushions right now.
 
Panic buying worse than anything during spring with the ports block news. Can't even get on the supermarket car park.
 
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