The vast majority of people are wearing masks. On the subject of maths though do you recall the Government telling us there was no evidence they made any difference? Very few have lived their ‘best life’.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
The Assembly really fecking this up. Instead of 4 weeks and done, the DUP stretches it out to the point half measures arent working and they lockdown anyway and its twice as long. Why they couldn't shut everything down for the school halloween break is beyond me.
I never said cases can’t go up with schools closed. I said that an explosion of cases coinciding with schools opening could not be a coincidence. Other countries having low numbers of schools open is irrelevant if the circumstances aren’t broadly similar. Examples you used were countries were schools were doing reduced class sizes etc. We aren’t doing any of that.
It’s become argumentative because it’s an emotive subject and I’m sick and tired of everything having to suffer but school closures or even reduction of class sizes is completely off the table. My partner, who is expecting our first child in March, is now earning 80% of the pittance she was already earning before she’s due to go on the pittance of statutory maternity pay because she has already had to change job once in this pandemic. That would all be fine if it was accomplishing what it needs to but I firmly believe we’re fighting this with one arm tied behind our back and the scientists and Government know it and won’t do anything about it because it’s bad for them politically.
You may be saying that you were just keen on a debate and were genuinely interested in my opinion but your posts did not come across in that way. For what it’s worth, if I said or intimated you or Pogue were idiots then I apologise. It’s a fraught situation and emotions run high.
The only thing not closed during that time that will be closed now was non essential retail and church services. Non essential retail is a spit in the ocean.
Then y’all are doing far better overall with altruism than large swaths are doing in my country.
You want to rightly criticize our respective governments, yet you believed them when medical devices were said to make little difference? That’s shockingly poor common sense.
Again, people themselves have a hand in how poorly the world has handled this virus. It may become clear to the world that truly draconian measures may need to be enacted to limit the viral spread & to wrest some control of the healthcare infrastructure back from theeffects of the virus.
If we unfortunately get there, both the populations & governments will be to blame. Apportioning exact percentages on either v the other would be semantics as both contributed to it. In my country, it’s probably more to do with personal choice than government ineptitude, even, maybe, as multiple states here have only superficial mandates in place to stop any spread. It’s more the business community that has any state or nationwide mandates in place. This is poor governance, without a doubt, but tens of millions of my fellow citizens are acting selfishly & not doing anything altruistic to help the situation.
This is ignorant on so many levels. People have to go to work because govts refuse to help them.
For the record, you definitely didn’t call me an idiot. We’ve had some ding dong rows in the past but have been extremely civilised to each other for ages. Well done us! Sorry to hear you’re having a rough time of it. This whole thing is such a shite state of affairs.
On the schools thing, I think I’m in too biased to discuss sensibly but I would be absolutely amazed if keeping secondary schools open doesn’t inflate cases numbers. Primary schools contribution is a bit harder to interpret. They do seem to be relatively covid resistant but it’s possible that thus is mainly because so few of them get symptomatic enough to get tested. Serological surveys would be a huge help but the ethics of sticking needles in kids is tricky. We’ll get better data as these salivary tests get better and better.
Not saying going to work, I’m bringing up the subjective parts of our lives to which people are adhering that force many of us to have to go to work.
We absolutely need more economic assistance from the federal government. But, seeing how & where the virus has spread recently & the potential effects as to why, it’s clear that many in this country don’t care about the negative effects their lifestyle might still be causing yet still persist in it. When we approach such systemwide issues as the healthcare system may be facing right now (& will in the future), it a fallacy to blame it completely on the government & not apportion any blame on the populace.
Goes back to my original statement that both governments & the populace are to blame. To leave the populace of blame out isn’t reflective of the situation as we currently see it.
I know, I’ve matured a little. But only a little. For what it’s worth I do have greater respect for your opinion than many on here. And we all have our biases.
I’m not even having that tough a time of it really, certainly nowhere near what many are. I’m in the fortunate position of having a very secure job so we’ll be ok. But, those issues coupled with general weariness of the whole thing has got to me more and more lately.
Perhaps an unanswerable question at the moment, but where are people catching covid? I gather that the rate of transmission in grocery shops is very very low? And the chances of getting it while meeting people outdoors (e.g for a walk) is low too? So where is all this transmission happening?
I'm not implying that those catching it are being irresponsible at all. I'm just curious, and probably chose those two examples selfishly as they're the only two ways I can see myself catching it at the moment.
I'm not implying that those catching it are being irresponsible at all. I'm just curious, and probably chose those two examples selfishly as they're the only two ways I can see myself catching it at the moment.
What exactly do you achieve by blaming individuals?
The figures are out there but its work and education.
I think it’s very flawed for what it’s worth but Public Health England’s recent Data on where people had been prior to testing positive - which is no real indication of where they caught it...;
Proportion of all common locations reported in PHE data:
- Supermarket - 18.3%
- Secondary school - 12.7%
- Primary school - 10.1%
- Hospital - 3.6%
- Care home - 2.8%
- College - 2.4%
- Warehouse - 2.2%
- Nursery preschool - 1.8%
- Pub or bar - 1.6%
- Hospitality - 1.5%
- University - 1.4%
- Manufacture engineering - 1.4%
- Household fewer than five - 1.2%
- General practice - 1.1%
- Gym - 1.1%
- Restaurant or cafe - 1.0%
All good. Maybe I misunderstood the smart references here and here. I took them to mean that if you look at the correlation / change and don't detect the same cause, you couldn't possibly be looking at it while employing even a basic level of intelligence, it's just believing something that defies logic and common sense (following on from Leroy's view). No bother either way.
I see where you're coming from. It's a shit situation all round and my detachment from that doesn't help convey a particularly useful tone. I come at this from a different place and do not remotely think the place I come at it from is at a good representation of the entire country, and I personally value the wide range of voices on the subject.
I agree with you that we're making things worse for the economy by keeping schools open, and I don't understand why they're completely off the table and subject to no debate whatsoever here, while they're closing them all over in freedom-loving US. I personally think the impact of closing primary schools on transmission would be absolutely minimal, but the impact of closing secondary schools would be significant (in line with the NI assessment). I don't think the impact of closing secondary schools would be that bad, personally, but I do think it would be very destructive for primary school kids. We know enough about underdeveloped literacy in early childhood that have lifelong effects that we should take incredibly seriously.
There are young kids in my extended family that benefited a lot from more time with their parents, their speech and reading came on massively. The parents were worried at first about social isolation as an only child but it's created a great learning environment and an amazing family bond. But there's others in my extended family who simply look like they've lost a year of school, a single parent with a newborn baby can't also be a teacher and the young son can't sit still in front of a screen - it was an unworkable situation from the outset, and he'll never get that back. He struggled at school already and there's legitimate concerns that will be a much, much bigger struggle in the years to come, just from a few months out.
So I'd leave primary schools open and secondary schools closed, but I'd accept the decision going either way with the public getting a say on that. I think it's really odd the public has had no say in it at all. So we can mostly agree there and I'll save this thread from any more of my verbosity.
There’s plenty of lifestyle out there that can be amended that would benefit us all. We do have some say in this issue.
Hmm yeah that strikes me as quite biased (if this is just a list of places people have been in the X days before a positive case), as everyone goes to the supermarket. But thanks for the source, will have a look.
Yeah I guess I could've just googled my question, but whereas the fun in that. Cheers!
Work, education, medical appointments, childcare, elderly care - even if you take indoor socialising out of the equation there are still a lot of interactions going on in some people's live, and those "some people" live in houses with other people.
The patterns of life for singles/couples living alone and working from home, with no caring responsibilities are massively different to the ones driving other people's lives.
My post to Pogue was me alluding to potential bias, which as I’ve said, we all have. I wasn’t being sarcastic when I said he’s a smart man. He clearly is. I’d say the same for you too. I can see why it would be interpreted that way though. My reply to you was a response to you saying this.
It was a direct, and sarcastic I’ll admit, reply to that post. If that was me intimating you’re an idiot then you were guilty of it I’m afraid.
I would agree with you on Primary schools. It doesn’t seem like as big a problem. And I’d advocate leaving them open while closing Secondary schools or at least halving classes and attendance being rotational. At least after a while we could build a clear picture
Without wanting to go in to too much detail, I have personal experience of lost school years and agree it’s a problem but not an insurmountable one. Which is why I think week on, week off could limit the damage in both areas.
Yeah true, I had kinda lost sight of that somehow.
But how though? by blaming people? we are ten months into this shitshow and you are telling me, lets shame people more and that will somehow magically work.
Not shaming, bringing up reality. To think that this crisis prevention fell solely on the government is laughable. Not attempting to help the common good by millions in this country is laughable. I’m not shaming, there’s just more that we all could do without the government instructing us to do. There’s a lot of subjectivity that still exists in the populace that could be removed. It may have to be in the coming months & not having the apparent altruism in our society certainly won’t help matters. We’re potentially upwards of a year out from vaccines being able to positively affect most parts of this country. To think that life could progress well til then with only governmental financial assistance & no increased altruism in the populace is laughable.
I think the shambling governmental response and communication in the UK and US has significantly contributed to people's attitude.
Ngl. I stopped reading after the "To think that this crisis prevention fell solely on the government is laughable" bit.
I read that earlier. To call it highly speculative would be a massive understatement! I don’t even think their hypothesis makes theoretical sense. The only evolutionary drive is reproduction and the long incubation period and pre-symptomatic transmission means the severity of the illness is pretty much irrelevant to this outcome.
I agree and their narrative isn't really supported by the quotes they use.
Obviously the severity of symptoms only matters if it reduces infection potential. If it does (and it often does) there is evolutionary pressure towards lead lethal variants . Do we know at what point people with covid stop being infectious? In the case of covid it isn't just death that will be a major selection pressure because anyone who has medium and above symptoms are made much less infectious by human intervention. If significantly different functional strains do emerge I'm thinking there will potentially be heavy selection pressure favouring symptomatically less severe forms as they will be able to be passed to others more easily. Does that make sense or is it wishful thinking?
The other thing is that the more infections the more mutations will occur so the odds of a change increase and then acted upon by selection pressures. This is one reason why trying for HIT without a vaccine is riskier imo.
South Australia is coming out of lockdown ahead of schedule after another day of no new cases.
It is looking like one of those initially infected lied to contact tracers which made them suspect that this was a more infectious new strain which triggered the lockdown at short notice. He worked 3 shifts at his second job at a pizza shop with someone who caught covid from also working ata quarantine hotel but told tracers he just dropped in briefly for a pizza. He then infected all 15 of his family so the the size of the cluster and the 100% infection rate in his family, all allegedly from contact with a pizza box, freaked everyone out.
When the outbreak then stopped in it's tracks they realised something didn't add up and questioned him again. He is going to be popular.
It is looking like one of those initially infected lied to contact tracers which made them suspect that this was a more infectious new strain which triggered the lockdown at short notice. He worked 3 shifts at his second job at a pizza shop with someone who caught covid from also working ata quarantine hotel but told tracers he just dropped in briefly for a pizza. He then infected all 15 of his family so the the size of the cluster and the 100% infection rate in his family, all allegedly from contact with a pizza box, freaked everyone out.
When the outbreak then stopped in it's tracks they realised something didn't add up and questioned him again. He is going to be popular.
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Yesterday's latest figures by English region of cases per 100k of population.
Yesterday's latest figures by English region of cases per 100k of population.
Those “1 Day Chng” arrows don’t seem to make sense. London’s last number for cases is 2.5k+, with 2k and 2.1k the previous 2 days data. Yet it has a green arrow pointing down? Same is true of a few other regions (e.g. huge jump in West Midlands but still has green arrow) What’s going on?
Read about that guy, what a knob head
The green arrow relates to the 1 day change in the average 7 day cases per 100k figure, not the actual daily case figure.
Ok I’ve got one of them in a whatsAp group I’m in.
so far today he’s posted an Ian brown tweet saying that the company rushing out a vaccine has already killed kids and paid out billions in fines.
next post that we’d spend hours binging on Netflix but not research for an hour what we will inject in our veins
next “the pandemic isn't working start the racial wars”
so far today he’s posted an Ian brown tweet saying that the company rushing out a vaccine has already killed kids and paid out billions in fines.
next post that we’d spend hours binging on Netflix but not research for an hour what we will inject in our veins
next “the pandemic isn't working start the racial wars”
But how can the the 7 day average trend downwards today, when the most recent data is a big increase on the previous two days?
Same time last week had that massive dump of 30k cases, the data is pulled from the governments figures & this yoke is pretty reliable. The FT are using him as one of their sources for data analysis of the figures at the minute.
American numbers are just batshit crazy. 192k cases yesterday & 2000 deaths with Thanksgiving weekend coming up. Can see them having 3000+ deaths a day soon with all the hospitals filling up
Ah. Ok. So it’s been a steady downward trend since the massive dump and one day of increase will slow that trend but not reverse it. Makes sense. Thanks.
Oh dear god, the only cure for that level of dumb is a sledgehammer to the face.
My daughters school has finally relented, Ive been arguing with them for weeks over their ban on masks in school, its only when I and more than a few other parents threatened to withdraw our kids and go to the press that they have changed their mind, its not like they even gave any rational explanation for it!
And to think that Ian Brown could be even more shit at something than singing.
Had some Ian Brown gibberish shared via WhatsApp today too, assuming it's the same thing. Bullshit wrapped in well-written English and spoken like fact. As dangerous as it is dumb from a person of influence like him.