SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

I think surface transmission is probably relatively rare but they seem to think South Australia's outbreak was due to surface transmission. No idea what the evidence for that is (if any).

Yeah it seems likely that it plays a role but the question there was just are we going a bit overboard now, given our approach seems anchored to the initial response to perceived surface threat even though the evidence has evolved quite a bit. Does seem likely some of it has more to do with signalling than the science at this point. I was in a hotel a couple of weeks ago where they had full on hazmat suits for people cleaning rooms after guests left. It did feel both strangely heavy handed and reassuring. It's a good thing that's one part of the economy that is growing but it's probably a fair question whether investing that money into better ventilation might have generated better protection, it just would have been less visible.

Is it just a massive coincidence that cases have exploded since schools have been open?

What's your take at this point? No continued explosion of cases after schools re-opening seems to suggest it plays a role in keeping them higher than we like, but not the definitive role in making them run out of control.
 
Thought this was interesting.

There's a huge amount of security theatre going on - for some reason sports teams in particular seem to be keen on running through sprays of disinfectant, and there's been people wandering around spraying corner flags, and it's all probably useless.

This was a particularly strong example:
 
Yeah it seems likely that it plays a role but the question there was just are we going a bit overboard now, given our approach seems anchored to the initial response to perceived surface threat even though the evidence has evolved quite a bit. Does seem likely some of it has more to do with signalling than the science at this point. I was in a hotel a couple of weeks ago where they had full on hazmat suits for people cleaning rooms after guests left. It did feel both strangely heavy handed and reassuring. It's a good thing that's one part of the economy that is growing but it's probably a fair question whether investing that money into better ventilation might have generated better protection, it just would have been less visible.



What's your take at this point? No continued explosion of cases after schools re-opening seems to suggest it plays a role in keeping them higher than we like, but not the definitive role in making them run out of control.
Well Northern Ireland’s r rate has gone from 0.7 to 1 in the last two weeks. Only one thing has changed in that time so we can hazard a good guess at the impact on the r rate. We’ve had to shut everything else to keep them going and cases are still too high.
 
There's a huge amount of security theatre going on - for some reason sports teams in particular seem to be keen on running through sprays of disinfectant, and there's been people wandering around spraying corner flags, and it's all probably useless.

This was a particularly strong example:


I still can't believe the thread discussing pros and cons of wearing a mask back in March/April on this very forum. A mask(!), to prevent viral infections. Cough, cough, breathe, breathe? Coupled with my own experiences, including my GP and other medical friends, 2020 has been a real eye opener for sure.
 
What's your take at this point? No continued explosion of cases after schools re-opening seems to suggest it plays a role in keeping them higher than we like, but not the definitive role in making them run out of control.

The ONS infection survey still shows primary school children have the lowest level of infection, although it did initially rise following corresponding rises in the rest of the population. There does seem to be a fundamental difference between young children and adolescents/young adults.
 
I have still yet to understand what all the body cover is for. I could understand it in the beginning, but with all we've learned the past 6 months, us still using the same PPE we were using in March seems like an insane waste of plastic/money. It's also draining and tiring to work in those things, so it's not like there aren't any negative trade-offs to it. Not being able to pee means you can't hydrate properly either.

The environmental impact makes me uncomfortable too. So much landfill refuse.
 
Surely Zoo's could have stayed open? The outside parts if nothing else.

Not quite up there with the insanity of banning golf and tennis but a blanket shut down of Zoo's is surely overkill.
Anytime I’ve been to Dublin zoo it’s been packed with people
 
Well Northern Ireland’s r rate has gone from 0.7 to 1 in the last two weeks. Only one thing has changed in that time so we can hazard a good guess at the impact on the r rate. We’ve had to shut everything else to keep them going and cases are still too high.

Aye, but the question was never "do schools have any impact?" but "does leaving schools open cause a massive explosion in cases / since nothing else has worked, isn't it obvious the only way to bring cases down is to close schools?". Cases are higher than we'd like, but not exploding any more, and I'd say it's fair to characterise the curve as essentially flat for the entirety of November. Like Ireland, a few weeks further along with schools open. Which would suggest that schools opening didn't cause the explosion, it was a factor among others, and things can be kept under control while schools are open. That's still a challenging task but the implication was that was not at all possible. And that you'd be an idiot for thinking it was. You pointed to the numbers as telling their own story, and now the numbers are very different despite schools re-opening, presumably they are now telling a different story?

There's a huge amount of security theatre going on - for some reason sports teams in particular seem to be keen on running through sprays of disinfectant, and there's been people wandering around spraying corner flags, and it's all probably useless.

This was a particularly strong example:


That's pretty wild. Presumably at some point something like this will backfire and we'll recalibrate to re-focus on what really works!
 
Update on measure coming in at midnight

To recap, from midnight tonight the following restrictions apply in South Australia:
  • All South Australians will have to stay put in their house for six days. Wherever they are at midnight tonight, that’s where they have to remain.
  • All schools will be shut except for children of essential workers and vulnerable children;
  • Childcare will be open only to essential workers, and shut to everyone else;
  • People will not be permitted to leave their home to exercise.
  • Takeaway food will be shut;
  • Universities will be closed;
  • Pubs, cafe’s, food courts and other food venues will be closed;
  • Elective surgery will be closed, except for urgent operations;
  • Cancer treatment will be closed;
  • Real estate inspections will be closed;
  • All outdoor sport and physical activity will not be permitted.
  • Regional travel is not approved. Holiday houses are closed. Schoolies, which police commissioner Grant Stevens said yesterday was still on, is now off;
  • Aged care and residential disability care is in lockdown;
  • Factories other than for food and medical products are closed, apart from essential maintenance;
  • The construction industry is closed;
  • Weddings and funerals will be banned for six days;
  • Face masks are required when outside the home, although it’s just encouraged not mandatory as many in SA do not yet have masks;
  • Families with joint custody arrangements have been asked to find an arrangement that works for the next six days, without moving between houses.
Remaining open:
  • Supermarkets will remain open for one visit from one person per household per day;
  • Critical infrastructure — power, telecommunications — will remain open;
  • Medical services including mental health services will remain open;
  • Public transport will remain open;
  • Airport and freight services will remain open;
  • Petrol stations will remain open;
  • Banks and financial institutions will remain open;
  • Post offices will remain open;
  • Mining, smelting, and large factories will be allowed to continue to operate at a level required to ensure continuity of service delivery or to prevent damage, but not for anything else;
  • Veterinary surgeons will remain open;
  • Agriculture workers will be able to move around to ensure the safety, welfare and processing of animals and animal products, like dairy
It is good to see that some countries have learned their lessons well and can react to situations properly now
 
https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/18/politics/new-york-covid-religious-rules/index.html



While incidences of Covid spike across the country, the Supreme Court is once again considering arguments from houses of worship that say pandemic-related restrictions are violating their religious freedom rights.
The two latest cases arise out of New York as a Roman Catholic Diocese in Brooklyn and a group of Orthodox synagogues are challenging Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo's executive order limiting in-person attendance at houses of worship to 10 or 25 people in geographic "red" and "orange" zones.
As if the dozens of cases around the world with super spreader events, a majority of them due to places of worship, aren't warning enough, these idiots are going out of their way behaving like comic book villains.

Are they that desperate for tithes?

Religion truly is a poison.
 
I have still yet to understand what all the body cover is for. I could understand it in the beginning, but with all we've learned the past 6 months, us still using the same PPE we were using in March seems like an insane waste of plastic/money. It's also draining and tiring to work in those things, so it's not like there aren't any negative trade-offs to it. Not being able to pee means you can't hydrate properly either.
To be honest, I personally think, if you are not a frontliner and just an everyday joe, just a simple reusable mask every time you leave your house is good enough. Don't waste perfectly good PPE and save them for actual doctors, nurses and other frontliners.
 
Yeah it seems likely that it plays a role but the question there was just are we going a bit overboard now, given our approach seems anchored to the initial response to perceived surface threat even though the evidence has evolved quite a bit. Does seem likely some of it has more to do with signalling than the science at this point. I was in a hotel a couple of weeks ago where they had full on hazmat suits for people cleaning rooms after guests left. It did feel both strangely heavy handed and reassuring. It's a good thing that's one part of the economy that is growing but it's probably a fair question whether investing that money into better ventilation might have generated better protection, it just would have been less visible.



What's your take at this point? No continued explosion of cases after schools re-opening seems to suggest it plays a role in keeping them higher than we like, but not the definitive role in making them run out of control.
You have a point. I think the main issue is, it is easier to put employees in PPE than it is to re-engineer a hotel's ventilation and air conditioning system.
 
Aye, but the question was never "do schools have any impact?" but "does leaving schools open cause a massive explosion in cases / since nothing else has worked, isn't it obvious the only way to bring cases down is to close schools?". Cases are higher than we'd like, but not exploding any more, and I'd say it's fair to characterise the curve as essentially flat for the entirety of November. Like Ireland, a few weeks further along with schools open. Which would suggest that schools opening didn't cause the explosion, it was a factor among others, and things can be kept under control while schools are open. That's still a challenging task but the implication was that was not at all possible. And that you'd be an idiot for thinking it was. You pointed to the numbers as telling their own story, and now the numbers are very different despite schools re-opening, presumably they are now telling a different story?



That's pretty wild. Presumably at some point something like this will backfire and we'll recalibrate to re-focus on what really works!
I think the question is not so much about closing schools as it is about what steps can we take that would prevent schools being a super spreader event while allowing them to remain open? Testing and social distancing coupled with masking seem to be potential ways to enable that. Not sure what steps are being taken in the UK right now in schools and universities.
 
As if the dozens of cases around the world with super spreader events, a majority of them due to places of worship, aren't warning enough, these idiots are going out of their way behaving like comic book villains.

Are they that desperate for tithes?

Religion truly is a poison.
I am not sure if there is any lost revenue there.
People can easily stay at home and worship. It is not like religious folks are all going to abandon God/church if they are not nudged every week by the place of worship.
 
You have a point. I think the main issue is, it is easier to put employees in PPE than it is to re-engineer a hotel's ventilation and air conditioning system.

This is definitely part of it. When you look at the cost and effort involved in upgrading ventilation systems for higher fresh air rates, or to add in things like HEPA filters, in the midst of a massive economic slump, there was obviously reluctance to jump in. There was fairly widespread (optimistic) feeling back in Spring that this might all be burned out by the summer, so why go for the big capital cost, when a few bottles of disinfectant and some disposable masks were the key weapons in the battle? I think that's slowly beginning to change, especially as some will be thinking about being more resilient to the next novel virus.
 
I am not sure if there is any lost revenue there.
People can easily stay at home and worship. It is not like religious folks are all going to abandon God/church if they are not nudged every week by the place of worship.
Judging from the amount of problems and incidents around the world, it seems they really are desperate to resume worship.

It seems tithes/donations from worship have nosedived and these commercial enterprises are desperate to earn an extra buck to pay for their private jet installments.
 
This is definitely part of it. When you look at the cost and effort involved in upgrading ventilation systems for higher fresh air rates, or to add in things like HEPA filters, in the midst of a massive economic slump, there was obviously reluctance to jump in. There was fairly widespread (optimistic) feeling back in Spring that this might all be burned out by the summer, so why go for the big capital cost, when a few bottles of disinfectant and some disposable masks were the key weapons in the battle? I think that's slowly beginning to change, especially as some will be thinking about being more resilient to the next novel virus.
I agree. That seems to be what happened. However, with the possibility of a vaccine on the horizon and an end to this nightmare in sight, I'm pretty sure most establishments will do the bare minimum to survive until the economy reopens.
 
Aye, but the question was never "do schools have any impact?" but "does leaving schools open cause a massive explosion in cases / since nothing else has worked, isn't it obvious the only way to bring cases down is to close schools?". Cases are higher than we'd like, but not exploding any more, and I'd say it's fair to characterise the curve as essentially flat for the entirety of November. Like Ireland, a few weeks further along with schools open. Which would suggest that schools opening didn't cause the explosion, it was a factor among others, and things can be kept under control while schools are open. That's still a challenging task but the implication was that was not at all possible. And that you'd be an idiot for thinking it was. You pointed to the numbers as telling their own story, and now the numbers are very different despite schools re-opening, presumably they are now telling a different story?



That's pretty wild. Presumably at some point something like this will backfire and we'll recalibrate to re-focus on what really works!
But we’ve shut everything else and cases are still too high. We’ve already seen the reduction in cases plateau in Northern Ireland. They were on a steady decline again. I know you’re desperate to be right and all but 1+1 isn’t equalling 2 here. Cases were manageable until the middle of September. Cases aren’t manageable now. While it’s still so widespread it was always going to continue to spread. The closure of schools was far too short for it to show a steep decrease.

It would be fair to categorise November as flat if you ignore the fact that the peak was when schools closed and the decrease stopped when schools re-opened.

Increasing the r rate by almost a third isn’t just any impact. It’s a fecking huge impact. Roughly three times that of hospitality closures.

To be honest, I’ve been quite patient through this debate. But you’re wrong, the numbers show you’re wrong and you ignore them. I’m done with you and your attempts at oneupmanship. The only way one of us can be proved right is if schools close and it has minimal impact or they stay open with everything else closed and cases drop to where we where in the summer. Neither is going to happen.
 
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Well lost all sense of taste this morning, went for a test which fecking sucks. Was asked to be part of some survey where they wanted 2 extra, less intrusive tests to see if they were a viable alternative.
 
But we’ve shut everything else and cases are still too high. We’ve already seen the reduction in cases plateau in Northern Ireland. They were on a steady decline again. I know you’re desperate to be right and all but 1+1 isn’t equalling 2 here. Cases were manageable until the middle of September. Cases aren’t manageable now. While it’s still so widespread it was always going to continue to spread. The closure of schools was far too short for it to show a steep decrease.

It would be fair to categorise November as flat if you ignore the fact that the peak was when schools closed and the decrease stopped when schools re-opened.

Increasing the r rate by almost a third isn’t just any impact. It’s a fecking huge impact. Roughly three times that of hospitality closures.

To be honest, I’ve been quite patient through this debate. But you’re wrong, the numbers show you’re wrong and you ignore them. I’m done with you and your attempts at oneupmanship. The only way one of us can be proved right is if schools close and it has minimal impact or they stay open with everything else closed and cases drop to where we where in the summer. Neither is going to happen.

We have a different understanding of the objective, is all. Steady cases at this level are not preferable but tolerable. The restrictions came in when cases were growing exponentially, that's what is intolerable over a prolonged period of time. They also want to bring cases down to the lowest possible levels so when restrictions are lifted, the exponential growth starts from a level that we can keep on top of, and that when we get sight of the growth, it hasn't already reached a level where hospitals are worried. We aren't pursuing a strategy of eradication so if we were to keep cases consistently steady, at this lower level, it would be acceptable to the majority. Which is why they've taken the decision to re-open the economy slowly, while re-opening schools. They are looking at the same numbers you are, just with more visibility. They don't like those numbers but they are manageable.

If you agree that we can now keep cases at a steady level while schools are open, and that by default leaving them open will not lead to another explosion of cases, then you weren't arguing against a point I was making, or Pogue was making, or anyone else you called an idiot. You just had a different perspective on what is an acceptable trade-off. Different to individuals on here, and different to the government. That's all fair enough but there's a big gap between having a different opinion, and thinking people are idiots for not sharing your opinion. Your view on the importance of schools is different from other people's, so you don't see any reason to give it special preferences. Many people do. Here's one example of a country following the opposite strategy, and finding that closing the schools comes with all kinds of downsides while the positive impact on transmission reduction is barely noticeable.
Yet today, while we all want in-classroom instruction, the practical question is whether to operate schools that don’t have optimal ventilation and other protections. The United States has answered by shuttering many schools and turning to remote learning even as many businesses have stayed open or reopened. Much of Europe pursued the opposite route, closing pubs and restaurants but doing everything possible to keep schools operating — and the evidence suggests that Europe has the smarter approach.

In both Europe and the United States, schools have not been linked to substantial transmission, and teachers and family members have not been shown to be at extra risk (this is more clear of elementary schools than of high schools). Meanwhile, the evidence has mounted of the human cost of school closures.

“Children learn best when physically present in the classroom,” notes the American Academy of Pediatrics. “But children get much more than academics at school. They also learn social and emotional skills at school, get healthy meals and exercise, mental health support and other services that cannot be easily replicated online.”

One child in eight in America lives with a parent with an addiction — a reflection of America’s other pandemic. I’ve seen kids living in chaotic homes, and for them the school building is a refuge and a lifeline.

America’s education system already transmits advantage and disadvantage from one generation to the next: Rich kids attend rich schools that propel them forward, and low-income children attend struggling schools that hold them back.

School closures magnify these inequities, as many private schools remain open and affluent parents are better able to help kids adjust to remote learning. At the same time, low-income children fall even further behind.

“Students are struggling,” Austin Beutner, superintendent of the Los Angeles Unified School District, where more than four-fifths of students live below the poverty line, told me. “And if you’re not becoming proficient in reading in first, second, third grade, you may face a lifetime of consequences.”

Research from Argentina and Belgium on school strikes indicates that missing school inflicts long-term damage on students (boys seem particularly affected, with higher dropout rates and lower incomes as adults). McKinsey & Company has estimated that in this pandemic, school closures may lead to one million additional high school dropouts.

Dropouts live shorter lives, so while the virus kills, so do school closures. One study this month estimated that closures of primary schools in the United States will cause many more years of life lost, because of increasing numbers of dropouts, than could be saved even if schools did spread the virus freely.


Across the country from Taylor’s classroom in Florida, Lauren Berg is an elementary school principal in McMinnville, Ore. Berg said some students flourish with distance learning, but three or four students in each class struggle to attend regularly.

The school tries everything: It gives out Chromebooks, hot spots, headphones, even personal timers with meeting times pre-scheduled with alarms. Teachers drop off food and school supplies, or sit in driveways to try to get pupils to log in to the system. “Even with all of this,” Berg said, “we are still missing some students.”

Let’s follow Europe: Close bars, and try harder to keep schools open.
The negative social impacts are potentially very severe. That's the judgment of the NI scientific advisers too, which is why when they weigh up the impact on the R rate vs. the wider impact, they think it's worth keeping schools open. They can manage without doing that. It's not a controversial opinion, nor denying the data, to say that is the case. It is just a different perspective.
 
But we’ve shut everything else and cases are still too high. We’ve already seen the reduction in cases plateau in Northern Ireland. They were on a steady decline again. I know you’re desperate to be right and all but 1+1 isn’t equalling 2 here. Cases were manageable until the middle of September. Cases aren’t manageable now. While it’s still so widespread it was always going to continue to spread. The closure of schools was far too short for it to show a steep decrease.

It would be fair to categorise November as flat if you ignore the fact that the peak was when schools closed and the decrease stopped when schools re-opened.

Increasing the r rate by almost a third isn’t just any impact. It’s a fecking huge impact. Roughly three times that of hospitality closures.

To be honest, I’ve been quite patient through this debate. But you’re wrong, the numbers show you’re wrong and you ignore them. I’m done with you and your attempts at oneupmanship. The only way one of us can be proved right is if schools close and it has minimal impact or they stay open with everything else closed and cases drop to where we where in the summer. Neither is going to happen.

Have you guys looked at Belgium?

I believe they shut the schools by extending the holiday, the cases per day have come crashing down and they have just opened the schools so might be interesting to see if they rise sharply soon again.
 
We have a different understanding of the objective, is all. Steady cases at this level are not preferable but tolerable. The restrictions came in when cases were growing exponentially, that's what is intolerable over a prolonged period of time. They also want to bring cases down to the lowest possible levels so when restrictions are lifted, the exponential growth starts from a level that we can keep on top of, and that when we get sight of the growth, it hasn't already reached a level where hospitals are worried. We aren't pursuing a strategy of eradication so if we were to keep cases consistently steady, at this lower level, it would be acceptable to the majority. Which is why they've taken the decision to re-open the economy slowly, while re-opening schools. They are looking at the same numbers you are, just with more visibility. They don't like those numbers but they are manageable.

If you agree that we can now keep cases at a steady level while schools are open, and that by default leaving them open will not lead to another explosion of cases, then you weren't arguing against a point I was making, or Pogue was making, or anyone else you called an idiot. You just had a different perspective on what is an acceptable trade-off. Different to individuals on here, and different to the government. That's all fair enough but there's a big gap between having a different opinion, and thinking people are idiots for not sharing your opinion. Your view on the importance of schools is different from other people's, so you don't see any reason to give it special preferences. Many people do. Here's one example of a country following the opposite strategy, and finding that closing the schools comes with all kinds of downsides while the positive impact on transmission reduction is barely noticeable.

The negative social impacts are potentially very severe. That's the judgment of the NI scientific advisers too, which is why when they weigh up the impact on the R rate vs. the wider impact, they think it's worth keeping schools open. They can manage without doing that. It's not a controversial opinion, nor denying the data, to say that is the case. It is just a different perspective.
I was happy to leave the debate where it was before you dredged it up again to say how right you are. The facts are that the numbers we are seeing currently are obscenely high with almost everything else being restricted. That’s because the price we have to pay to have schools open is to shut everything else and still watch thousands of people die.

The numbers aren’t proving my original point wrong. Cases exploded after schools opened, started reducing when they were closed and they’ve plateaued now they’re open again. The problem is still so rife that they’re saying we need more restrictions. The problem being the only things left are schools and non essential retail. Non essential retail is estimated to have a sixth of the impact of schools.

I have never argued against the social reasons for schools being open so I don’t know why you bring it up like I did. The question is whether the impact it clearly causes is worth it and whether people should have a say in the matter.
 
Have you guys looked at Belgium?

I believe they shut the schools by extending the holiday, the cases per day have come crashing down and they have just opened the schools so might be interesting to see if they rise sharply soon again.
Brwned brought Belgium up when he thought it proved his point correct. He ignored it when I pointed out the remarkable increase after schools opened.

Belgium are actually taking a very sensible approach with the re-opening of schools with distance learning for half of the older kids. We’re refusing to even consider things like that. Which is the main point of my frustration with the refusal to acknowledge we should be doing similar.
 
I was happy to leave the debate where it was before you dredged it up again to say how right you are. The facts are that the numbers we are seeing currently are obscenely high with almost everything else being restricted. That’s because the price we have to pay to have schools open is to shut everything else and still watch thousands of people die.

The numbers aren’t proving my original point wrong. Cases exploded after schools opened, started reducing when they were closed and they’ve plateaued now they’re open again. The problem is still so rife that they’re saying we need more restrictions. The problem being the only things left are schools and non essential retail. Non essential retail is estimated to have a sixth of the impact of schools.

I have never argued against the social reasons for schools being open so I don’t know why you bring it up like I did. The question is whether the impact it clearly causes is worth it and whether people should have a say in the matter.

I don't think I am right, I think there is room for both perspectives with different sets of priorities. And that holding a different view on the subject does not make the other person an idiot. What I argued against was your certainty on the subject, in the face of inconclusive data at best, and your active rejection of other views. For someone that happily went around pointing out how stupid it was to believe anything other than what you believe, you seem oddly sensitive to the idea of someone saying 'maybe there is more to the story than your opinion'. Especially given the growth trajectory in NI, the UK more broadly and Ireland, never mind the other countries. I'll admit, I'm surprised that perceptions haven't changed at all to allow for a range of views, despite the data looking very different. No point dragging that one out.
 
Been quite a few cases at the schools I work at, mix of pupils/staff. My issue now is that unless I'm in the vicinity and overhearing people talk about whose isolating, I have no idea if I may of been in contact with a positive case. (Techie, that works at 2 schools during the lockdown 4 normally.. go around all the classes on plenty of devices yadayada)

Someone has symptoms, they isolate or the pupil doesn't come to school. School is usually notified at this point, they get a test and once the result comes in further action is taken. Obviously up until now it's taking a few days for that result to arrive.
If there is a positive test then contacts and the class/year are sent home(Baffles me that sometimes only the class and not the year are sent home), always feel bad for the office when they've got to call 60 parents to pick up their kids.

Following this, to the best of my knowledge the kids being sent home aren't expected to get a test. So the vast majority aren't being tested, so sometimes 60 kids that have been in contact with a positive staff member aren't being tested. Could easily be 10-15 of them that have it but no symptoms. Staff even without symptoms are required to get tested if they're isolating but even if test negative some are still required to stay off while others like teachers are required to come back.

The business side brought up a wonderful idea the other day, if a pupil tests positive use seating plans to only send the kids in the near vicinity home. Seem to have forgotten that kids aren't chained to their fecking chairs all day.
 
I don't think I am right, I think there is room for both perspectives with different sets of priorities. And that holding a different view on the subject does not make the other person an idiot. What I argued against was your certainty on the subject, in the face of inconclusive data at best, and your active rejection of other views. For someone that happily went around pointing out how stupid it was to believe anything other than what you believe, you seem oddly sensitive to the idea of someone saying 'maybe there is more to the story than your opinion'. Especially given the growth trajectory in NI, the UK more broadly and Ireland, never mind the other countries. I'll admit, I'm surprised that perceptions haven't changed at all to allow for a range of views, despite the data looking very different. No point dragging that one out.
Is that what the fixation is about? Me supposedly calling you and Pogue idiots? When did that even happen? Did you really need to bring up a dead argument because of that? To feel superior?

I’m happy for people to point to other theories and back them up. I’m not happy for people to say I’m wrong, tell me to research your argument for myself, ignore when it’s pointed out that the numbers don’t support your theory and bring up arguments that were long put in the past just to try and prove a point you can’t even prove.
 
People did that already, and our Governments seemingly wasted that time by not getting the proper systems in place.
It’s pretty obvious (& has been obvious) that governments are pretty powerless against this virus, especially when selfishness & shortsightedness exists in people they oversee. To think that governments are the villains here is a bit rich.
 
Is that what the fixation is about? Me supposedly calling you and Pogue idiots? When did that even happen? Did you really need to bring up a dead argument because of that? To feel superior?

I’m happy for people to point to other theories and back them up. I’m not happy for people to say I’m wrong, tell me to research your argument for myself, ignore when it’s pointed out that the numbers don’t support your theory and bring up arguments that were long put in the past just to try and prove a point you can’t even prove.

I wanted to see if you had a different opinion on the subject, given a reasonable time had passed to see the effects of the new policy and the broader change in case patterns, and the last place we left the discussion was 'let's see what happens, hope it's better than I expect'.

I think one of the few worthwhile reasons to be on a discussion forum is to share views with someone with a different perspective, on a subject you've given a bit of thought to. It's not about winning an argument or feeling superior. I don't think anyone could win an argument on a complex subject with multiple points of entry. It's just an opportunity for discussion to see things from a different perspective. I don't really understand why it's ever been framed as some kind of intellectual jousting where the objective was to demonstrate who was the "winner", or who was the smart one taking the only sensible position on the subject.

If someone asked me had my opinion developed on subject x given new evidence, my first instinct wouldn't be to interpret that as a personal attack, it seems a relatively normal thing to do. Clearly I misjudged.
 
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It’s pretty obvious (& has been obvious) that governments are pretty powerless against this virus, especially when selfishness & shortsightedness exists in people they oversee. To think that governments are the villains here is a bit rich.
People are cnuts. Government are bigger cnuts. There’s a difference between powerless and making things worse.
 
I wanted to see if you had a different opinion on the subject, given a reasonable time had passed to see the effects of the new policy and the broader change in case patterns, and the last place we left the discussion was 'let's see what happens, hope it's better than I expect'.

I think one of the few worthwhile reasons to be on a discussion forum is to share views with someone with a different perspective, on a subject you've given a bit of thought to. It's not about winning an argument or feeling superior. I don't think anyone could win an argument on a complex subject with multiple points of entry. It's just an opportunity for discussion to see things from a different perspective. I don't really understand why it's ever been framed as some kind of intellectual jousting where the objective was to demonstrate who was the "winner", or who was the smart one taking the only sensible position on the subject.

If someone asked me had my opinion developed on subject x given new evidence, my first instinct wouldn't be to interpret that as a personal attack, it seems a relatively normal thing to do. Clearly I misjudged.
The timing was good then. Northern Ireland has just announced they need harsher restrictions because those in place haven’t been effective enough. Guess what the only thing not affected is?

Your condescension aside, the new evidence doesn’t really show schools aren’t a big problem. I would argue they show they clearly still are. When you were presented with the fact you were wrong on Belgium’s numbers your response was not that of a mathematical equation, it was to ignore it and move on. So you can climb back off your high horse.
 
People are cnuts. Government are bigger cnuts. There’s a difference between powerless and making things worse.
Not saying that blame isn’t to be apportioned in both camps, but absolving the ‘people’ part of this is prime gaslighting.
 
And your apportionment went too far the other way.
Well, when little things like masks aren’t worn, restaurants & bars / pubs, etc. attended, superficial, arbitrary lifestyles not amended during a pandemic, it’s a little trite to foist more blame than necessary on governments. A little more altruism by the populace in our countries would have been far more beneficial than the feeling of ‘living your best life’ in recent months.