SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

UnrelatedPsuedo said:
Edited. Auto correct.
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:lol:

Thanks. I was so confused.

I was wondering cause it's taking ten days for my partner's mum to get results. I'm not sure if that's standard or the testing time varies depending on how likely they think you are to have it, cause in her case she'd be one of the lower risk people who are being tested.
 
Penna said:
This is correct. We've not been barricaded into our houses, we are free to come and go - we're just obliged to complete a form if we're travelling longer distances. As long as you have a proper reason for this (working, medical care, going back to your home area, shopping for things that aren't available in your local Comune) there's no problem. We have to travel out of our Comune for food shopping as we only have a small family-run grocery shop in the village, with limited stock.

In areas like the one we live in (semi-rural, small towns and villages) I haven't seen any checkpoints - they seem to be confined to major roads and places like railway stations and airports. The only difference today was that people had to wait to enter the bigger supermarkets, to avoid over-crowding.

This helpful article explains in more detail what you can and can't do in Italy at the moment.

https://www.thelocal.it/20200310/ar...espid=gvZ9qvMCX1WNJXy0IDToXskP8C34ipoGEViyaC4
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How come restaurants and cafes are staying open? Seems like a weird choice given that most other public gathering places have been shut.
 
cyberman said:
Ive literally talked my lungs into hurting for feck sake.
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Pretty much the same here. I have like a slightly sore throat which usually I'd pay no attention to, but instead I wonder every 2 mins if I have the virus.

UnrelatedPsuedo said:
I reckon 99% of people spreading panic and bulk buying goods.... don’t have a thermometer at home.

It’s an absolute necessity. Both to ward off paranoia of self, and to give 111 or 999 or an Ambulance driver, and accurate temperature reading if it ever came to it.

Everyone should have at least one digital one in the house. Then probably a strip on the forehead back up option.
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A thermometer is exactly what I went and bought yesterday to calm my own nerves. Temperature was just fine.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
How come restaurants and cafes are staying open? Seems like a weird choice given that most other public gathering places have been shut.
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It's very common here for workers to go for a coffee at breakfast time and later for a sit-down simple lunch. I think that's part of the reason, it's part of the Italian psyche. Shutting at 6pm stops all the socialising that would take place in the evenings.

People have to sit further apart in the bars and restaurants, too.
 
MikeUpNorth said:
At a minimum I would talk to your travel insurance provider to check what you are covered for - I mean, literally pick up the phone to them, and then get it in writing. You don't want a huge US medical bill if things go south.
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That’s an excellent point, I wouldn’t be taking the risk
 
Schools seem a potentially dangerous place and perhaps the UK should think about closing. It's a real meeting place for viruses, many families at any given time will have recently come back from holiday at the school and we've just had a 1-2 week break. So many kids are looked after by their grand parents part time, babysitted or picked up at school and these older people will then will go to see their friends and visit friends in care homes and such, then you've got younger families whose parents might work at various care home facilities.

I'd hope we can get regular testing of people who work at places with vulnerable people at least
 
sullydnl said:
Given multiple governments have now stated that the scientific evidence highlights the risks involved in implementing measures too early,?
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Has any of these governments sourced this scientific evidence.

Bearing in mind that science in these terms is, for all practical purposes, open-source... Did they ever pointed out to it?
 
MTF said:
Pretty much the same here. I have like a slightly sore throat which usually I'd pay no attention to, but instead I wonder every 2 mins if I have the virus.


A thermometer is exactly what I went and bought yesterday to calm my own nerves. Temperature was just fine.
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Easy to clean an ar5ehole. Hard to know the difference between ‘Hot’ and ‘Fever’.
 
Yeah I honestly don’t think I’ve had a fever in my lifetime. What is the difference between that and just being hot?
 
Prometheus said:
Wait, you're asking evidence for my skepticism? :lol:

You write well, but I don't think you understand how science works.
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Well, yes I suppose I am?

I mean the chief medical and science officers of these countries have put this argument forward, you've stated that their argument is bullshit and that you can't believe people have fallen for it.

Which means either A) You've decided that these particular medical/science experts are wrong about a complicated medical/science issue based on absolutely nothing but your own gut opinion, or B) you have at some point encountered some information of some type which suggests to you that they are wrong.

Assuming A) isn't the case, it's hardly outlandish of me to wonder what information has prompted such a strident opinion.

I mean you're right, I absolutely don't understand how science works, this particularly complicated area of science in particular. Which is exactly why I'm asking for some evidence to read. Which I assumed you'd be in a position to provide given you're so much more assured of your own grasp of the science behind all of this. :)

Arruda said:
Has any of these governments sourced this scientific evidence.

Bearing in mind that science in these terms is, for all practical purposes, open-source... Did they ever pointed out to it?
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Not that I've seen. If anyone could point to their evidence too that would be great. Mostly all I've seen are random opinions on an issue that (I can only assume) has been subject to a fair amount of research over the years.
 
Adamsk7 said:
Yeah I honestly don’t think I’ve had a fever in my lifetime. What is the difference between that and just being hot?
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I spent most of last week with one, and you can certainly tell the difference. Aching all over, temperature feeling wildly erratic, suddenly feeling like you’re in the Arctic despite having a high temperature and being wrapped in multiple duvets. Sweating like crazy. It’s not much fun..
 
sullydnl said:
Not that I've seen. If anyone could point to their evidence too that would be great. Mostly all I've seen are random opinions on an issue that (I can only assume) has been subject to a fair amount of research over the years.
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Can't point to something that doesn't exist.

As for evidence on the contrary... Look east.

It's just that the people better equipped to make decisions aren't the ones making them. Yet.
 
redshaw said:
Regarding the amount tested.

Italy was 23/24k tested as of a week ago (2nd-3rd of March) with 2500 cases and 79 deaths on their hands, that's a 10/11% positivity rate.

UK 9th of March 24,641 tested 319 positive (1.3%) 5 deaths .

For the low key situation UK has been in for the last two weeks UK done a decent amount of testing.

Since the lockdown Italy has tested about 25k more, up to 49k.

The situation is a lot different, Italy is a hot spot and we're not simply lagging behind a days, if we were then we'd be on around 2000 cases and 70 deaths or if you want to stretch it to a two week lag we'd have to be on around a 1000 cases and 40 odd dead.

Spain and France has some serious looking numbers, UK might follow suit soon, I'm not saying we won't be but we're not simply lagging by few days or week or two weeks. Spain and France are with around 1500 cases and 35 deaths each.
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Thanks for the figures tested I was looking for these. The only thing that’s keeping the figures down in the Uk then must be the fact we can trace most routes back to people on flights or people on boats, a hell of a lot easier that land borders. We’re aren’t then gonna see the same increases until we get guaranteed community infection. That could buy us time, but that’s all it is time.
 
UK number of infected went up 17% again for the second day running, not great but could be much worse at this stage. Praying it starts to tail off somehow, or at least 'creeps' up without an explosion.
 
Arruda said:
Can't point to something that doesn't exist.

As for evidence on the contrary... Look east.

It's just that the people better equipped to make decisions aren't the ones making them. Yet.
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So you're saying the individual medical and science experts charged with helping fight this disease aren't simply wrong, they're actually liars deliberately and callously spreading falsehoods with the knowing intent of endangering thousands of lives? That's quite the accusation to level at presumptively honest medical professionals. Yikes.
 
17 Van der Gouw said:
UK number of infected went up 17% again for the second day running, not great but could be much worse at this stage. Praying it starts to tail off somehow, or at least 'creeps' up without an explosion.
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That seems extraordinarily unlikely, given the lack of controls in place. Unnecessary travel and large public gatherings are still going ahead unabated and all the schools are still open. We are very much on the same trajectory as Italy and will be in a similar place in two weeks time (at which point control measures will be enacted).
 
Infra-red said:
That seems extraordinarily unlikely, given the lack of controls in place. Unnecessary travel and large public gatherings are still going ahead unabated and all the schools are still open. We are very much on the same trajectory as Italy and will be in a similar place in two weeks time (at which point control measures will be enacted).
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You can't help feel that we had a golden chance to take the initiative, acknowledge what is happening in Italy and at least begin taking some measures. Would the world really stop turning if all sport were played behind closed doors? If concerts and mass gatherings were discouraged? If there was state incentive for business to get people working from home where possible? Just small opening measures, but instead, all we've got at this point is 'wash your hands and carry on'.

I feel we might regret this if we don't act soon.
 
sullydnl said:
So you're saying the individual medical and science experts charged with helping fight this disease aren't simply wrong, they're actually liars deliberately and callously spreading falsehoods with the knowing intent of endangering thousands of lives? That's quite the accusation to level at presumptively honest medical professionals. Yikes.
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The accusation is that the government spokespersons are following government direction, its kind of their job. If you actually think Boris and Hancock follow an evidence based approach i don't know where you've been.

When they're saying there's no scientific evidence that stopping hugh crowds attending events stops a virus spreading then you have to question this so evidence.

I think PHE have laid out and been laying out the importance of certain measures for weeks but the actual switching of phases is a government decision, they can't overrule or undermine this.
 
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sullydnl said:
I mean the chief medical and science officers of these countries have put this argument forward, you've stated that their argument is bullshit and that you can't believe people have fallen for it.
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Most of these are in quasi-political jobs. Some are compromised (see US Surgeon General and the doctors Trump brought for the press conference), others are outdated boomers, etc.

They are nowhere near the only (and in many cases certainly nowhere near the best) prepared persons. Many have stated completely opposed views, literally everywhere. I've show one example above, that Richars Hatchett video. There are many more. His resumé blows almost any government spcialist out of the water on this specific issu.
 
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worldgonemad said:
Thanks Levy.
Does that seem suspiciously low to you? Do you have information on how many are being tested in those countries?
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I like you found those figure strange, same as I find most of the figures in North Africa. I thought given the heath care of the poor in both India and Pakistan it would be much higher. It’s difficult to find figures on tested to be honest. I’ve thought for a while a lot of the figures we are seeing don’t make a lot of sense logically. Iran is swarming while Afghanistan is relatively low?
 
redshaw said:
Regarding the amount tested.

Italy was 23/24k tested as of a week ago (2nd-3rd of March) with 2500 cases and 79 deaths on their hands, that's a 10/11% positivity rate.

UK 9th of March 24,641 tested 319 positive (1.3%) 5 deaths .

For the low key situation UK has been in for the last two weeks UK done a decent amount of testing.

Since the lockdown Italy has tested about 25k more, up to 49k.

The situation is a lot different, Italy is a hot spot and we're not simply lagging behind a days, if we were then we'd be on around 2000 cases and 70 deaths or if you want to stretch it to a two week lag we'd have to be on around a 1000 cases and 40 odd dead.

Spain and France has some serious looking numbers, UK might follow suit soon, I'm not saying we won't be but we're not simply lagging by few days or week or two weeks. Spain and France are with around 1500 cases and 35 deaths each.
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I’m pretty negative about the whole situation but I do agree that the idea we’re just Italy a week or two earlier in the process is a bit melodramatic. The big difference is that the Italian public didn’t have horror stories coming out of another EU country to shock them into doing their best to minimise spread. Sure they had China to look at but the situation in China never felt as tangible and scary as the reports we’re hearing from Italy now.

By all accounts GP surgeries and A&E departments are almost completely empty. Restaurants aren’t getting any bookings. Gyms are emptying out. The government might not be enforcing social distancing but it’s happening already, far more effectively in Uk/Ireland than it was in Italy in the first week or two of their epidemic.
 
MadMike said:
Mate, it’s a phone call to 111. They will ask your symptoms and will likely send a kit to you to get tested. Do it.
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I did the the online questionnaire to see if I should phone 111 and this is the reply I got.
As you:

  • have not been to an area with a serious outbreak
  • have not been in contact with a confirmed case
You don't need to speak to 111. But you can use 111 online to check symptoms not related to coronavirus and find out what to do next.
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If you haven't been to an infected area or been in contact with some one who is a confirmed case they wont even talk to you.
 
Fully Fledged said:
I did the the online questionnaire to see if I should phone 111 and this is the reply I got.

If you haven't been to an infected area or been in contact with some one who is a confirmed case they wont even talk to you.
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I imagine they do if your temp is high enough. Otherwise, yeah, they're busy enough.
 
Smores said:
The accusation is that the government spokespersons are following government direction, its kind of their job. If you actually think Boris and Hancock follow an evidence based approach i don't know where you've been.

When they're saying there's no scientific evidence that stopping hugh crowds attending events stops a virus spreading then you have to question this so evidence.
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The chief medical experts in other countries have made similar arguments though. So the argument then is that multiple medical professionals in multiple different countries are outright lying in order to advocate for policies they know will kill thousands, based on evidence they know is completely non-existent, seemingly without any fear whatsoever of being exposed by the myriad non-murderous medical experts intently watching their every move.

Or, it could be that this is an immensely complicated area of science where different experts have contradicting opinions on how to best proceed, based on complicated and often contradictory evidence. Evidence that posters in this thread have little chance of being aware of as they haven't been exposed to the decades of training and study that qualifies one as an expert on these matters, which is why they're primarily basing their arguments on twitter threads and reddit posts instead.

Seems to me the latter is more likely but then what do I know?
 
17 Van der Gouw said:
You can't help feel that we had a golden chance to take the initiative, acknowledge what is happening in Italy and at least begin taking some measures. Would the world really stop turning if all sport were played behind closed doors? If concerts and mass gatherings were discouraged? If there was state incentive for business to get people working from home where possible? Just small opening measures, but instead, all we've got at this point is 'wash your hands and carry on'.

I feel we might regret this if we don't act soon.
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It's a miscalculation from the Government. The economic impact of the measures you describe would have been minimal. They still would have had more draconian options (like an Italian-style lockdown) in reserve, but the time at which they had to be employed would have been delayed and we could have succeeded in flattening the infection curve, thereby reducing the strain on the NHS.

Although the overall number of infections this year is unlikely to have been altered by the Government's inaction, the mortality rate will almost certainly have been increased by it.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
I’m pretty negative about the whole situation but I do agree that the idea we’re just Italy a week or two earlier in the process is a bit melodramatic. The big difference is that the Italian public didn’t have horror stories coming out of another EU country to shock them into doing their best to minimise spread. Sure they had China to look at but the situation in China never felt as tangible and scary as the reports we’re hearing from Italy now.

By all accounts GP surgeries and A&E departments are almost completely empty. Restaurants aren’t getting any bookings. Gyms are emptying out. The government might not be enforcing social distancing but it’s happening already, far more effectively in Uk/Ireland than it was in Italy in the first week or two of their epidemic.
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Exactly! As much as the British public put on the “stiff upper lip” talk, we are actually a nation of massive hyperchondriacs! Almost everyone I know is social distancing, opening doors with their body or sleeve and washing hands religiously. Not saying that’s the same for everyone of course but it does give some indication that the paranoia is there, which is good!
 
Arruda said:
Most of these are in quasi-political jobs. Some are compromised (see US Surgeon General and the doctors Trump brought for the press conference), others are outdated boomers, etc.

They are nowhere near the only (and in many cases certainly nowhere near the best) prepared persons. Many have stated completely opposed views, literally everywhere. I've show one example above, that Richars Hatchett video. There are many more. His resumé blows almost any government spcialist out of the water on this specific issu.
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That first paragraph is a bit unfair. Especially the “outdated boomer” bit. The main adviser in Ireland was two years below me in Med School! They’re also not operating in isolation. Most big decisions are made after consultation with a bunch of very well-informed people who have access to all the latest data. The really top consultants in any field are a lot more IT literate than you seem to be giving them credit for.
 
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