SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

I reckon 99% of people spreading panic and bulk buying goods.... don’t have a thermometer at home.

It’s an absolute necessity. Both to ward off paranoia of self, and to give 111 or 999 or an Ambulance driver, and accurate temperature reading if it ever came to it.

Everyone should have at least one digital one in the house. Then probably a strip on the forehead back up option.
 
Sadly, it seems there healthcare capacity is already well past saturation.

Kind of. In Lombardy it is, and the healthcare system here is easily on par with the NHS. We have almost 500 people in ICU for Coronavirus. People are being transferred around the country to places with spare capacity, but for the elderly who deteriorate quickly it can't be done fast enough.

There are 1,000 ventilators to create new ICU spaces and 100,000 respirator masks coming from China so pressure will hopefully be reduced.


I am curious from the doctors on here - Lombardy is the Italian equivalent of Greater London. How many ICU beds does London have?
 
Interesting read that. Mentions that the situation is far worse in the UK than it's made out which wouldn't surprise me at all.
I've found this interesting:
There was a feeling a week or two ago, when we started seeing community clusters, that population measures needed to be taken. The feedback we have gotten from colleagues in public health or those involved in government advisory positions has been that there is a question of balancing short term economic burden against a predicted mortality.
Of course.

I can't believe people were buying into the whole early quarantine causes compliance issues BS.
 
I actually think this is one of the rare cases where the media reaction is actually slightly underplaying the risks and what's at stake here. It could be devastation on a scale most of us haven't seen in our lifetimes. The whole nation of Italy - ITALY - is effectively under martial law, and it's only just getting started.

But people aren't taking the media at face value given they are the boy who cried wolf.

Italy is not under Martial Law. Life is very normal for the vast majority of Italians. No need to dramatise.
 
infetti=infected
dec=deaths

Italy
I created this on excel considering the average daily increase of infected and deaths in Italy

This is what could happen in Italy if there is not a decrease

Schermata-2020-03-08-alle-22-10-11.png

Today 10/03 results are:

10149 infected
631 deaths

My excel file, unfortunately, is more or less correct after 3 days

But I will improve it
 


Can't see this playing behind closed doors thing lasting too long.


They need to suspend these games for general public safety. Even with games behind closed doors, it still gives people a reason to gather together to watch the game (if you're televised) or even listen to it on the radio.
 
Off work today with a bad chest after having a fever and aches yesterday. I’m asthmatic. 2 other colleagues have also not turned in today, we work in Liverpool and live just outside.

Looks like none of us have any intention of getting tested, wouldn’t even know where to start, just lying in bed drinking lemsips and reading this thread. :nervous::lol:

Mate, it’s a phone call to 111. They will ask your symptoms and will likely send a kit to you to get tested. Do it.

I don't even think it's that - they're afraid of the political costs/public backlash, and costs to business.

Based on the infection rates here, the only difference with Italy is we’re two weeks behind. I see the economic cost as inevitable at this stage, I expect lockdown by end of March. It’s about saving lives now and delaying it till summer if possible.
 
The government is being complacent for fear of spreading panic. It’s disgraceful. They need to get their shit together. Better close schools, interrupt sporting and social events and make office workers work from home now. Better delay the spread before NHS hits capacity. After that it will be too late.

Think it's purely to do with squeezing as much money out of us as a society mate. This is the same Government that has caused the NHS to be struggling so much already...!

I don't even think it's that - they're afraid of the political costs/public backlash, and costs to business.
It's typical of these corrupt clowns to cover up a pandemic.

Agree with Steve here.

The government is doing far more behind the scenes than the media leads you to believe.

Why do you say that? And what do you presume they're doing? Genuine questions, and I fecking hope you're right so much.

I can't believe people were buying into the whole early quarantine causes compliance issues BS.

Indeed. It's laughable... though not in the slightest funny.
 
The number of new cases in Italy is down by half compared from yesterday. No idea if it is artificially low, or the peak has passed. Hopefully, we see the trend continuing.

Needs more time to understand a change of a trend
 
It was until this weekend. Not anymore it's not.

It is still closer to a regular life than living under Martial Law.

The military is not controlling the country. Suggesting a whole country is experiencing that is daft.

Flights are still operating. Roads are open with few checkpoints. Trains are running. Italy is still functioning as a country. They seem to be doing exceptionally well in insanely difficult circumstances. They haven’t just rolled out the army everywhere.
 
Feeling pretty hot, dizzy, and tight chest.

I get colds a lot, so nothing terribly out of the ordinary.

Far as I can tell, given I haven't been to any of the high risk parts of the world, or had direct contact with any known cases, the advice is for me to just carry on as I normally would, rather than ringing 111 or anything?

I would ring 111 to be on the safe and responsible side. There have been cases of a community spread infection in UK now.
 
I've found this interesting:
Of course.

I can't believe people were buying into the whole early quarantine causes compliance issues BS.
It's laughable... though not in the slightest funny.

Assuming neither of you are experts in this field, can you point to where you've sourced your belief that these preventative measures don't decline in efficiency over time as suggested?

Given multiple governments have now stated that the scientific evidence highlights the risks involved in implementing measures too early, it would be interesting to read actual scientific evidence as to why they are wrong. I mean presumably there have been countless reports over the years modelling various responses to these types of outbreaks?
 
Ive literally talked my lungs into hurting for feck sake.
In Belfast airport a few days ago, heard two bus drivers saying a fellow employee contracted it so good luck contacting all those passengers, handing out tickets and change guarentees a high rate with him alone.
 
@Rhyme Animal - In response to the ‘How do you know’

Mainly... I’m close to top tier government. But not at all close to anyone in the departments handling this.

Thus All of my updates are anecdotal and second hand. But as dumb as the ruling government may be... most people in senior civil service positions are brighter than average and work together pretty damn well. There’s red tape and restrictions at many turns but the government is inherently good. Not the politicians who deal in the dark. But the people that do a social good no matter who the paymasters are. The people untouched by Cabinet reshuffles.

Gears are turning. There’s a plan and it’s trending as well as any country on earth.

Should Boris be the face of our response? Nope. But if people voted for him then he’s the face of the nation. Sadly.

Hospitals are being reorganised. We’re testing lots and our response times are pretty good. Not world leading. Sadly. But we’re doing better than most.

I think more than anything else, the UK has had an odd history with the balance point between telling the public just enough to maintain social order and simply protecting all people. Perhaps that’s fallen into sacrificing a few at times. But we’ve had many instances of it.

That seems to be where we’re at now. Readiness is happening in the background. Something like calm messaging is keeping people on an even keel.

It may all go horrifically bad. But there are plans. Things are changing without being on the front page.
 
Today 10/03 results are:

10149 infected
631 deaths

My excel file, unfortunately, is more or less correct after 3 days

But I will improve it

Your excel sheet is wildly inaccurate today and will be worse every day going forward. Your error will be compounded every single day.
 
@Rhyme Animal - In response to the ‘How do you know’

Mainly... I’m close to top tier government. But not at all close to anyone in the departments handling this.

Thus All of my updates are anecdotal and second hand. But as dumb as the ruling government may be... most people in senior civil service positions are brighter than average and work together pretty damn well. There’s red tape and restrictions at many turns but the government is inherently good. Not the politicians who deal in the dark. But the people that do a social good no matter who the paymasters are. The people untouched by Cabinet reshuffles.

Gears are turning. There’s a plan and it’s trending as well as any country on earth.

Should Boris be the face of our response? Nope. But if people voted for him then he’s the face of the nation. Sadly.

Hospitals are being reorganised. We’re testing lots and our response times are pretty good. Not world leading. Sadly. But we’re doing better than most.

I think more than anything else, the UK has had an odd history with the balance point between telling the public just enough to maintain social order and simply protecting all people. Perhaps that’s fallen into sacrificing a few at times. But we’ve had many instances of it.

That seems to be where we’re at now. Readiness is happening in the background. Something like calm messaging is keeping people on an even keel.

It may all go horrifically bad. But there are plans. Things are changing without being on the front page.

Firstly, thanks for writing out such a well laid out reply mate, really appreciate it.

Secondly, I really, sincerely hope you're right!
 
Apparently he knew he was a high risk and played anyway.
The plank
Mcgivern the linfield player apparently went to the league Cup final with the hannover player.

As soon as it was realised that the hannover player had the virus mcgivern notified linfield and put himself in isolation.
 
A good day today in Italy, 'only' 1,000 new cases reported.

We are also buying a load of ventilators and respirators from China, and bringing doctors over who worked the peak of the outbreak there. One hidden benefit of being the first outbreak is we get first dibs on their stuff i guess.
Today 10/03 results are:

10149 infected
631 deaths

My excel file, unfortunately, is more or less correct after 3 days

But I will improve it
Just a heads up, the case numbers for Lombardy (the most effected region) today are only partial. 10,149 is not the final figure.
 
@Rhyme Animal - In response to the ‘How do you know’

Mainly... I’m close to top tier government. But not at all close to anyone in the departments handling this.

Thus All of my updates are anecdotal and second hand. But as dumb as the ruling government may be... most people in senior civil service positions are brighter than average and work together pretty damn well. There’s red tape and restrictions at many turns but the government is inherently good. Not the politicians who deal in the dark. But the people that do a social good no matter who the paymasters are. The people untouched by Cabinet reshuffles.

Gears are turning. There’s a plan and it’s trending as well as any country on earth.

Should Boris be the face of our response? Nope. But if people voted for him then he’s the face of the nation. Sadly.

Hospitals are being reorganised. We’re testing lots and our response times are pretty good. Not world leading. Sadly. But we’re doing better than most.

I think more than anything else, the UK has had an odd history with the balance point between telling the public just enough to maintain social order and simply protecting all people. Perhaps that’s fallen into sacrificing a few at times. But we’ve had many instances of it.

That seems to be where we’re at now. Readiness is happening in the background. Something like calm messaging is keeping people on an even keel.

It may all go horrifically bad. But there are plans. Things are changing without being on the front page.

Good post.
 
Firstly, thanks for writing out such a well laid out reply mate, really appreciate it.

Secondly, I really, sincerely hope you're right!

No worries man.

Don’t get me wrong. I voted Labour. I think this current government is pro business. Pro business. Fcuk the poor. They’re awful people at the top level

But the government departments are estranged from that. We should keep that in mind.

Hoping we stay in the top 10 of countries. We’re never going to be first. More people will die because of that. But people are voting for this system. Sadly.
 
Assuming neither of you are experts in this field, can you point to where you've sourced your belief that these preventative measures don't decline in efficiency over time as suggested?

Given multiple governments have now stated that the scientific evidence highlights the risks involved in implementing measures too early, it would be interesting to read actual scientific evidence as to why they are wrong. I mean presumably there have been countless reports over the years modelling various responses to these types of outbreaks?
Wait, you're asking evidence for my skepticism? :lol:

You write well, but I don't think you understand how science works.
 
What is pretty good? Is ten days standard?

What do you mean by ‘Ten Days’

If you phone up the NHS through any means, tell them you went to Milan last week and have a confirmed temperature of 41 degrees... you’re going to get a full court press of a response. You’re in a ward in hours. You will be monitored.

I can’t talk to your wide question.
 
Good post.

Thank you brother. And thank you for (seemingly) reining in some of your more alarmist posts in the past few days. Your daily update post from the factual source is helpful and I appreciate it.

I’m sure we’ll both think the other is too dramatic or too ostrich like in the coming weeks. But that’s life.
 
What do you mean by ‘Ten Days’

If you phone up the NHS through any means, tell them you went to Milan last week and have a confirmed temperature of 41 degrees... you’re going to get a full court press of a response. You’re in a ward in hours. You will be monitored.

I can’t talk to your wife question.
My what?
 
Italy is not under Martial Law. Life is very normal for the vast majority of Italians. No need to dramatise.
This is correct. We've not been barricaded into our houses, we are free to come and go - we're just obliged to complete a form if we're travelling longer distances. As long as you have a proper reason for this (working, medical care, going back to your home area, shopping for things that aren't available in your local Comune) there's no problem. We have to travel out of our Comune for food shopping as we only have a small family-run grocery shop in the village, with limited stock.

In areas like the one we live in (semi-rural, small towns and villages) I haven't seen any checkpoints - they seem to be confined to major roads and places like railway stations and airports. The only difference today was that people had to wait to enter the bigger supermarkets, to avoid over-crowding.

This helpful article explains in more detail what you can and can't do in Italy at the moment.

https://www.thelocal.it/20200310/ar...espid=gvZ9qvMCX1WNJXy0IDToXskP8C34ipoGEViyaC4