SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

entropy said:
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Puts to bed any 'real mortality is 0.01%' and similar arguments.

As for vaccine, I do enjoy that other countries will be able to get back to semi-normal next year because of it. I don't have much hope for Poland, according to recent surveys less than half of our population will consider getting themselves vaccinated if the vaccine is proven safe and efficient, and other survey suggest the number could be as low as 10-12%. Second one makes more sense than just less than half as recent surveys show that 20% do not believe covid exists at all, 46% do not believe you can die from covid so I would imagine all of them would not get vaccinated at all and would also discourage their families. More than 10% believe it's a plot to put microchips into people's bodies and depopulate Earth. Vaccine is really pointless if all you can do is get 10% to take it.
 
Sarni said:
Puts to bed any 'real mortality is 0.01%' and similar arguments.

As for vaccine, I do enjoy that other countries will be able to get back to semi-normal next year because of it. I don't have much hope for Poland, according to recent surveys less than half of our population will consider getting themselves vaccinated if the vaccine is proven safe and efficient, and other survey suggest the number could be as low as 10-12%. Second one makes more sense than just less than half as recent surveys show that 20% do not believe covid exists at all, 46% do not believe you can die from covid so I would imagine all of them would not get vaccinated at all and would also discourage their families. More than 10% believe it's a plot to put microchips into people's bodies and depopulate Earth. Vaccine is really pointless if all you can do is get 10% to take it.
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Resume normal life and make it impossible to participate in society without having been vaccinated could be a solution. I wouldn't be against it if you could only enter restaurants / pubs if you have proof of vaccination.
 
RobinLFC said:
Resume normal life and make it impossible to participate in society without having been vaccinated could be a solution. I wouldn't be against it if you could only enter restaurants / pubs if you have proof of vaccination.
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Sounds like a good idea but there would be riots against NWO and Bill Gates here if that happened. There already were when they asked people to wear masks in closed spaces.
 
RobinLFC said:
Resume normal life and make it impossible to participate in society without having been vaccinated could be a solution. I wouldn't be against it if you could only enter restaurants / pubs if you have proof of vaccination.
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Or certainly restrict movement to other countries.
 
I'm not sure I'd call what's going on at the moment a lockdown. Literally every shop on my high street is open...even the Estate agents are packed with weirdos in suits. Roads are no less busy and there doesn't seem to be any noticable difference to how many people are going in to work. Schools are still open.

The schools situation is very difficult but outside of that I dont get the point in doing a lockdown if it's going to be some super half arsed version. It's just kicking the problem such a tiny way down the road that you barely even buy yourself any time.
 
noodlehair said:
I'm not sure I'd call what's going on at the moment a lockdown. Literally every shop on my high street is open...even the Estate agents are packed with weirdos in suits. Roads are no less busy and there doesn't seem to be any noticable difference to how many people are going in to work. Schools are still open.

The schools situation is very difficult but outside of that I dont get the point in doing a lockdown if it's going to be some super half arsed version. It's just kicking the problem such a tiny way down the road that you barely even buy yourself any time.
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Yep same. Had been away for a week and just got back at the weekend. Went out yesterday expecting a full-blown lockdown, but even the bookshop was open, serving from a table that was blocking the door. Ditto with estate agents and other 'essential businesses', such as the three drycleaners we have within about 5m of each other near our flat.
 
Sarni said:
Puts to bed any 'real mortality is 0.01%' and similar arguments.

As for vaccine, I do enjoy that other countries will be able to get back to semi-normal next year because of it. I don't have much hope for Poland, according to recent surveys less than half of our population will consider getting themselves vaccinated if the vaccine is proven safe and efficient, and other survey suggest the number could be as low as 10-12%. Second one makes more sense than just less than half as recent surveys show that 20% do not believe covid exists at all, 46% do not believe you can die from covid so I would imagine all of them would not get vaccinated at all and would also discourage their families. More than 10% believe it's a plot to put microchips into people's bodies and depopulate Earth. Vaccine is really pointless if all you can do is get 10% to take it.
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It doesn't really. You don't prove anything by taking such tiny samples and trying to generalise. Particularly not from an environment where the people are unlikely to be as healthy or particularly well treated as your average group of people. I doubt they rush prison inmates to the front of the line for health care either. If the mortality rate for covid wasn't extremely low the death numbers would be a lot more horrific due to how easily it seems to be passed from person to person.

Second point is part of where the difficulty will be with all countries I think. Having a vaccine is one thing but finding an effective way to both distribute it to enough people for it to make a difference, and then also convincing people to have it, is another battle. I think though ultimately when it comes to the more vulnerable at least, the fear of dying either from them or their loved ones will mean common sense will prevail...and 90% effectiveness just sounds too good to be true, as it means it's less of an issue if the less at risk people decide to opt out. So you don't necessarily need to be trying to force the entire population to have it for it to work.
 
noodlehair said:
I'm not sure I'd call what's going on at the moment a lockdown. Literally every shop on my high street is open...even the Estate agents are packed with weirdos in suits. Roads are no less busy and there doesn't seem to be any noticable difference to how many people are going in to work. Schools are still open.

The schools situation is very difficult but outside of that I dont get the point in doing a lockdown if it's going to be some super half arsed version. It's just kicking the problem such a tiny way down the road that you barely even buy yourself any time.
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My high street is exactly the same, every store has decided they're essential it seems. All it's really done is hit the hospitality industry which yeah they're contributing to the rise but not enough for them to face the brunt of this lockdown.

It was a bit predictable that people wouldn't treat this lockdown with the seriousness it deserves. i really hope the R comes down irrespective because if i can't have Christmas and see my parents for only the 2nd time this year i'm going to be apocalyptic.
 
Jippy said:
Yep same. Had been away for a week and just got back at the weekend. Went out yesterday expecting a full-blown lockdown, but even the bookshop was open, serving from a table that was blocking the door. Ditto with estate agents and other 'essential businesses', such as the three drycleaners we have within about 5m of each other near our flat.
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Yeah literally the only places closed on the high street here were the charity shops, CEX and an electrics store. Everywhere else has found a way to stay open....and the roads are an absolute fecking nightmare, even outside of the school traffic. First time round the roads were absolutely empty. Absolutely no difference at all to the people going into our offices either. Still not ecxactly full of people but yesterday was the most people I've seen in since March.

I'm not exactly fond of the idea of a lockdown because I think it will just wreck so many lives at this point, but a kind of half one just seems a bit pointless. It wont make enough difference to prevent difficult decisions having to be made in a few weeks time anyway.
 
Smores said:
My high street is exactly the same, every store has decided they're essential it seems. All it's really done is hit the hospitality industry which yeah they're contributing to the rise but not enough for them to face the brunt of this lockdown.

It was a bit predictable that people wouldn't treat this lockdown with the seriousness it deserves. i really hope the R comes down irrespective because if i can't have Christmas and see my parents for only the 2nd time this year i'm going to be apocalyptic.
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That's the thing it's going to potentially decimate the hospitality industry anyway, and that will have a knock on effect for every industry. We're already seeing this happen really and the reality of it is only just starting to hit a lot of people.

It's definitely predictable but there's a lot I can't make sense of. I don't understand why vulnerable people were locked indoors all summer, in many cases becoming depressed and suffering other health issues as a result, just for it to get to the winter and now they're allowed to do whatever the feck they want despite being probably more at risk now than during the summer. Surely would have been better to do it the other way round. It's not like covid coming back in the winter was an unforseable event.

I honestly can't see it coming down before christmas enough to make a difference, and if it does it'll soon shoot back up. With Christmas I guess you could effectively create a bubble within your family circle. For example me and my brother/sister could effectively isolate for a couple of weeks before and then I'd just go pick up my mum and siblings and we could spend it at my dads. Not sure what the rules will say by then but tbh they barely make enough sense to be worth following half the time.
 
noodlehair said:
It doesn't really. You don't prove anything by taking such tiny samples and trying to generalise. Particularly not from an environment where the people are unlikely to be as healthy or particularly well treated as your average group of people. I doubt they rush prison inmates to the front of the line for health care either. If the mortality rate for covid wasn't extremely low the death numbers would be a lot more horrific due to how easily it seems to be passed from person to person.

Second point is part of where the difficulty will be with all countries I think. Having a vaccine is one thing but finding an effective way to both distribute it to enough people for it to make a difference, and then also convincing people to have it, is another battle. I think though ultimately when it comes to the more vulnerable at least, the fear of dying either from them or their loved ones will mean common sense will prevail...and 90% effectiveness just sounds too good to be true, as it means it's less of an issue if the less at risk people decide to opt out. So you don't necessarily need to be trying to force the entire population to have it for it to work.
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I'm not saying it's going to be 6%, it obviously won't be among general population. However putting this at 0.1% has really no foundation at this point because as it's been mentioned in both threads, there are countries and areas where more than 0.1% of general population has died with covid and it doesn't appear that they have any sort of herd immunity either as people are still getting infected. I can believe anything between 0.4% and 1.0% range but definitely not 0.1%.
 
noodlehair said:
Yeah literally the only places closed on the high street here were the charity shops, CEX and an electrics store. Everywhere else has found a way to stay open....and the roads are an absolute fecking nightmare, even outside of the school traffic. First time round the roads were absolutely empty. Absolutely no difference at all to the people going into our offices either. Still not ecxactly full of people but yesterday was the most people I've seen in since March.

I'm not exactly fond of the idea of a lockdown because I think it will just wreck so many lives at this point, but a kind of half one just seems a bit pointless. It wont make enough difference to prevent difficult decisions having to be made in a few weeks time anyway.
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Made me laugh that the greetings card shop near the tube station now stocks about five different cleaning products, which are displayed very prominently in the window.
Agree this half-arsed lockdown will likely achieve little, particularly when you consider the grim unemployment figures out today.
Presumably there'll be some loosening for Christmas shopping next month too, so absolutely everything is open.
 
Castia said:
After all this clears I hope the world pulls together to go at China, feck knows how they’re just plodding along as if nothing has happened whilst millions die around the world.
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Exactly my view as well.
 
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532 deaths and 20412 cases for UK but hospital admissions have leveled off
 
Castia said:
After all this clears I hope the world pulls together to go at China, feck knows how they’re just plodding along as if nothing has happened whilst millions die around the world.
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Oh joy, this argument again :rolleyes:
 
Sarni said:
Puts to bed any 'real mortality is 0.01%' and similar arguments.

As for vaccine, I do enjoy that other countries will be able to get back to semi-normal next year because of it. I don't have much hope for Poland, according to recent surveys less than half of our population will consider getting themselves vaccinated if the vaccine is proven safe and efficient, and other survey suggest the number could be as low as 10-12%. Second one makes more sense than just less than half as recent surveys show that 20% do not believe covid exists at all, 46% do not believe you can die from covid so I would imagine all of them would not get vaccinated at all and would also discourage their families. More than 10% believe it's a plot to put microchips into people's bodies and depopulate Earth. Vaccine is really pointless if all you can do is get 10% to take it.
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"The TDCJ facilities that have the highest number of deaths from COVID tend to be prisons that house large numbers of elderly incarcerated people as well as individuals with physical disabilities and serious medical conditions"
 
Sarni said:
Sounds like a good idea but there would be riots against NWO and Bill Gates here if that happened. There already were when they asked people to wear masks in closed spaces.
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Poland is a pretty big country, you will always be able to find a few tens of thousands of people to start a riot.

If you can go through with this abortion thing without a civil war in 2020 I am sure you can also do something about covid.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
How full are ICUs in the Uk? Just been reading some grim occupancy stats from mainland Europe.
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Belgium is at 1,450 of a possible 2,000 ICU admissions. Luckily infections and hospitalizations have already levelled off because of the more stringent lockdown so the total ICU number will stay below 1,500 if the the trend continues.

Still shameful that we let it get to that level again after we got our numbers so low in the beginning of July. As if politicans didn’t know what an exponential curve was.
 
Sarni said:
I'm not saying it's going to be 6%, it obviously won't be among general population. However putting this at 0.1% has really no foundation at this point because as it's been mentioned in both threads, there are countries and areas where more than 0.1% of general population has died with covid and it doesn't appear that they have any sort of herd immunity either as people are still getting infected. I can believe anything between 0.4% and 1.0% range but definitely not 0.1%.
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I think you're misreading the information to be honest. I don't doubt the death rate varies somewhat from place to place depending on the conditions and the level of care available, but there is nowhere that it will be anything even slightly close to 1%. The biggest difference in the rate from one place to another actually seems to be the level of testing.

For example in the UK, if you take the number of deaths compared to the number of confirmed cases, then the death rate is around 0.04%...and that's before you factor in that not every person who has covid will be tested. Someone with no symptoms will not be tested unless done so at random, and depending on what study you look at the number of people who contract covid without getting any symptoms is anywhere between around 50% to as high as 85%...so even going by the lower figure there you're looking at a death rate of around 0.02%. You can argue that can come down more if you consider that covid deaths are people who tested positive within a certain time frame of death, and that a percentage of those were already terminally ill. As well as the fact that the demand for tests has been greater than the capacity at various points in time, so some positive cases have simply been missed. So even being pessimistic, looking at the maths and science available you would have to concede that 0.02% is more likely to be a high figure than a low one, which makes the 0.01% figure actually seem very plausible.

I can easily believe there will be some variation to that based on the unknown factors and lack of exactness in some of the numbers, but there is just no way it jumps from that to suddenly being 1% or 0.4% or anything close. If it was close to either of those numbers you would be looking at potentially 50-100 times the number of deaths we have seen if not more. The number of deaths in the UK alone would be in the hundreds of thousands

It's all pretty useless information as well since it's so generalised. For example if I were to get covid (again) I'd have a much lower chance of dying than even 0.02%, due to being at a healthy and young age, and living in a country where I have access to healthcare and a warm roof over my head. My chances of dying are basically 0...where as for an 80 year old with a lung condition living in deprived conditions it's probably significantly higher than even 1%...as it also would be if they contracted flu or even potentially a common cold....and this is why it's such a big problem, because this still actually amounts to an awful lot of people, and there are also countless other conditions and illnesses going round, and adding another on top is in many places simply too much for the healthcare systems we have in place to cope with.

Herd immunity is a nonsense but I think we've always kind of known that. We've never had enough information about covid to know if something like that would work, and the more information we do get, the more it seems that it wouldn't.
 
Jippy said:
Made me laugh that the greetings card shop near the tube station now stocks about five different cleaning products, which are displayed very prominently in the window.
Agree this half-arsed lockdown will likely achieve little, particularly when you consider the grim unemployment figures out today.
Presumably there'll be some loosening for Christmas shopping next month too, so absolutely everything is open.
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The pawn brokers here have done the same thing :lol:

I don't get what happens now. The only thing I can think of is that we've given up on keeping the numbers down that low and this is simply some kind of mitigating act to try and keep hospitals at a level where they at least aren't completely beyond capacity...but even then it just seems to be kicking the problem a few more feet in front of yourself. It will still be winter for months once we reach December and the cases will surely just go back up well within that time.

The alternative is we wont come out of this lockdown in December at all, but then that just makes the half arsedness of it seem even more daft. A prolonged half arsed lockdown is going to do more damage to people's livelyhoods and mental wellbeing than a less prolonged, less half arsed one, and probably save less lives as well, I would have thought anyway.

It's difficult to know what's going on for definite since they never give any detail about the science it's based on!
 
noodlehair said:
I think you're misreading the information to be honest. I don't doubt the death rate varies somewhat from place to place depending on the conditions and the level of care available, but there is nowhere that it will be anything even slightly close to 1%. The biggest difference in the rate from one place to another actually seems to be the level of testing.
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In the earlier peak in the UK we had something like 50k/60k excess deaths, most of which were down to covid cases. Subsequent antibody testing and other sampling from the ONS came to the conclusion that about 5 to 6m people had had the virus during the period.

That works out at around 1% of those infected.

noodlehair said:
For example in the UK, if you take the number of deaths compared to the number of confirmed cases, then the death rate is around 0.04%..
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Eh? Even if you assume that everyone in the UK has had covid (which they haven't) then 60k excess deaths equates to around 1:1000 (0.1%) of the population dying.
 
noodlehair said:
I think you're misreading the information to be honest. I don't doubt the death rate varies somewhat from place to place depending on the conditions and the level of care available, but there is nowhere that it will be anything even slightly close to 1%. The biggest difference in the rate from one place to another actually seems to be the level of testing.

For example in the UK, if you take the number of deaths compared to the number of confirmed cases, then the death rate is around 0.04%...and that's before you factor in that not every person who has covid will be tested. Someone with no symptoms will not be tested unless done so at random, and depending on what study you look at the number of people who contract covid without getting any symptoms is anywhere between around 50% to as high as 85%...so even going by the lower figure there you're looking at a death rate of around 0.02%. You can argue that can come down more if you consider that covid deaths are people who tested positive within a certain time frame of death, and that a percentage of those were already terminally ill. As well as the fact that the demand for tests has been greater than the capacity at various points in time, so some positive cases have simply been missed. So even being pessimistic, looking at the maths and science available you would have to concede that 0.02% is more likely to be a high figure than a low one, which makes the 0.01% figure actually seem very plausible.

I can easily believe there will be some variation to that based on the unknown factors and lack of exactness in some of the numbers, but there is just no way it jumps from that to suddenly being 1% or 0.4% or anything close. If it was close to either of those numbers you would be looking at potentially 50-100 times the number of deaths we have seen if not more. The number of deaths in the UK alone would be in the hundreds of thousands

It's all pretty useless information as well since it's so generalised. For example if I were to get covid (again) I'd have a much lower chance of dying than even 0.02%, due to being at a healthy and young age, and living in a country where I have access to healthcare and a warm roof over my head. My chances of dying are basically 0...where as for an 80 year old with a lung condition living in deprived conditions it's probably significantly higher than even 1%...as it also would be if they contracted flu or even potentially a common cold....and this is why it's such a big problem, because this still actually amounts to an awful lot of people, and there are also countless other conditions and illnesses going round, and adding another on top is in many places simply too much for the healthcare systems we have in place to cope with.

Herd immunity is a nonsense but I think we've always kind of known that. We've never had enough information about covid to know if something like that would work, and the more information we do get, the more it seems that it wouldn't.
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Out of curiosity, how exactly did you get to 0.04%? 50k deaths is well over 0.04% of total population already.
 
If the death rate was 0.04%, nobody would have even heard of covid 19.

I saw a figure a while back that its probably between 0.3 and 1%.
 
Andy_Cole said:
If anyone wants my day by day diary:

Day 1 - felt a bit wiped out. Very slightly. I still went by my normal day, didn’t cross my mind I had Covid. Still gymed.
Day 2 - also the first day of lockdown. I realised I couldn’t taste my dinner. I isolated as soon as I thought I may have Covid at my parents house.
Day 3 - had my test. Feeling fine. Taste is coming back. Smell still gone.
Day 4 - tested positive, everyone I came into contact with got the test. They found out in the evening they’re all negative. Smell coming back. Breathing slightly shortened. Not sure if it’s in my head though. Smashed out the indoor cycle twice today.
Day 5 - breathing is better. Full of energy. Taste and smell back. Will smash out more indoor cycle in a bit.
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Update:

Day 7 - I’ve been fine. No exercise today or yesterday. Been working and playing Pokémon on my switch to keep me occupied. I think the worst was Day 5 evening and Day 6.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
@noodlehair your maths is way out. That 0.04 figure you calculated by dividing UK deaths/cases is 4%, not 0.04%.

It looks as though you need to multiply all your mortality rates by 100!
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My brain is tired and I've confused myself. It would be 0.04 as a decimal...and I was also reading 0.1% as 1% for some reason and then trying to work out why anyone would think the death rate could be that high.

So basically just ignore everything I said.
 
Andy_Cole said:
Update:

Day 7 - I’ve been fine. No exercise today or yesterday. Been working and playing Pokémon on my switch to keep me occupied. I think the worst was Day 5 evening and Day 6.
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I was asymptomatic when I caught ot back in March even though Im on a drug called Remicade that surpresses your killer t cells. Its a strange oul virus.
 
noodlehair said:
My brain is tired and I've confused myself. It would be 0.04 as a decimal...and I was also reading 0.1% as 1% for some reason and then trying to work out why anyone would think the death rate could be that high.

So basically just ignore everything I said.
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Heh. No worries. We’re all a bit frazzled and this shit is confusing.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Heh. No worries. We’re all a bit frazzled and this shit is confusing.
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I've spent all day in online lectures and basically lost the ability to think or take information in properly. Or so it seems.

Probably a sign I should go to bed...or at least drink more alcohol.
 
Bosws87 said:
"The TDCJ facilities that have the highest number of deaths from COVID tend to be prisons that house large numbers of elderly incarcerated people as well as individuals with physical disabilities and serious medical conditions"
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"80% of people who have died in jails from covid were not convicted of a crime"
 
I seriously doubt death rate in modern countries with half decent health care is anything more than 0,5%, at least judging by our numbers in Bosnia, and comparing with other countries.

Statistically, our current death rate is 2,5%, but the number of tested vs positive is nowhere near good enough, lately we test just around 3000 people daily and have more than 1000 positives every day, so I would say number of active cases should be far higher, probably 3-4 times more in our country. Taking into an account that our health care is one of the worst in Europe, I would say that that number of deaths could be lowered too with decent healthcare, so it should be far below 1%.
 
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