SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Pogue Mahone said:
Quite possibly. Although in Ireland we plateau’s before half term. When did UK kids go back to school?
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Half term ended last Monday.

I think they were also comparing the effectiveness of the lockdown in NI and Wales. The one in NI was allegedly more effective because it was at the same time as half term.

But I don't have the numbers to compare
 
Skills said:
Half term ended last Monday.

I think they were also comparing the effectiveness of the lockdown in NI and Wales. The one in NI was allegedly more effective because it was at the same time as half term.

But I don't have the numbers to compare
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In the North West they started their decline from a 4,760 per day (7-day average) on 20th October to sub-4000 now. Half-term started on Monday 26th in e.g. Liverpool. London started to plateau around the same time, North East was a few weeks' earlier. Overall the UK more or less plateaued on the 20th, but there's different regional stories.

Think they're conflating two different stories. Closing schools would have an impact on top but whether it was the cause of the stabilisation is the main story. Given it started before half-term nationally, that seems unlikely.
 
A lot of talk about people refusing to get a vaccine or distribution taking it's time but if a high majority of the elderly and vulnerable get it then won't that be enough to practically end this as a pandemic that requires lockdowns and SD etc or have i missed something stupidly obvious?
 
Dancfc said:
A lot of talk about people refusing to get a vaccine or distribution taking it's time but if a high majority of the elderly and vulnerable get it then won't that be enough to practically end this as a pandemic that requires lockdowns and SD etc or have i missed something stupidly obvious?
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Well, there are possibly billions of people in the danger demographic (above 45? Underlying conditions under 45?). Production is estimated at ~6.4 billlion a year (for current flu vaccine), iinm. And a lot of the vaccines being tested require 2 or more doses. So even that will take some time. And not to mention there are still numerous cases of younger people needing medical treatment or dying. And on top of that, there are also lots of indications of long term damage to survivors of even asymptomatic cases. And there is also the concern of mutation. So we will still need the next 6 months, at least, to vaccinate the first wave of countries, presumably mostly the major world powers. Then the rest of the world in the subsequent waves.
 
UnrelatedPsuedo said:
@Pogue Mahone and other brainy folks...

How much would Trumps treatment cost? Ballpark figure. Ignore hospital fees, but a pure drug price at top dollar.
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Which one?

Dexamethasone costs pennies. Remdisivir about three grand and the Regeneron drug won’t have a price yet. Likely to be a lot though. Monoclonal Ab’s tend to be expensive.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Which one?

Dexamethasone costs pennies. Remdisivir about three grand and the Regeneron drug won’t have a price yet. Likely to be a lot though. Monoclonal Ab’s tend to be expensive.
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Ballpark on ‘A lot’?

Ignoring the fact that nobody would get the same price, if someone paid you £500 to source the cocktail that he got, what’s the flat price of those treatments?

£ or $ or € would be appreciated. It’s all hypothetical but I’m interested.
 
UnrelatedPsuedo said:
Ballpark on ‘A lot’?

Ignoring the fact that nobody would get the same price, if someone paid you £500 to source the cocktail that he got, what’s the flat price of those treatments?

£ or $ or € would be appreciated. It’s all hypothetical but I’m interested.
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Most of the monoclonals developed to date are for conditions that require multiple doses and typically come out at around $100k/year (range from about $15k - $250k).

The covid ones are seen as one shots so maybe $10k/$20k if it existed as a released produced (though of course you can't just buy it right now - so $100k + bribes etc)? However if they were produced in quantity (which they would be if they were to become a standard early covid treatment) then the price would fall fast - maybe sub $1k within a matter of months.
 
UnrelatedPsuedo said:
Ballpark on ‘A lot’?

Ignoring the fact that nobody would get the same price, if someone paid you £500 to source the cocktail that he got, what’s the flat price of those treatments?

£ or $ or € would be appreciated. It’s all hypothetical but I’m interested.
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Drug pricing is based around what the market will pay. Always many multiples of cost of goods. The rationale being they need to recoup development costs (ballpark $1b per drug, factoring in all the failures)

Pricing a covid treatment will get insanely political. Have absolutely no idea what sort of price point they’ll go for. A lot will depend on the size of the market. If reserved for the sickest patients only will be way more expensive than if it is licensed for mild/moderate cases.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Drug pricing is based around what the market will pay. Always many multiples of cost of goods. The rationale being they need to recoup development costs (ballpark $1b per drug, factoring in all the failures)

Pricing a covid treatment will get insanely political. Have absolutely no idea what sort of price point they’ll go for. A lot will depend on the size of the market. If reserved for the sickest patients only will be way more expensive than if it is licensed for mild/moderate cases.
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Cheers. Yours and the post above helped.

My friend used to work at NICE and drug cost vs benefit was scary at times. Knowing a little more detail is really helpful.
 
Andy_Cole said:
If anyone wants my day by day diary:

Day 1 - felt a bit wiped out. Very slightly. I still went by my normal day, didn’t cross my mind I had Covid. Still gymed.
Day 2 - also the first day of lockdown. I realised I couldn’t taste my dinner. I isolated as soon as I thought I may have Covid at my parents house.
Day 3 - had my test. Feeling fine. Taste is coming back. Smell still gone.
Day 4 - tested positive, everyone I came into contact with got the test. They found out in the evening they’re all negative. Smell coming back. Breathing slightly shortened. Not sure if it’s in my head though. Smashed out the indoor cycle twice today.
Day 5 - breathing is better. Full of energy. Taste and smell back. Will smash out more indoor cycle in a bit.
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Probably a bit late to this but I'd be careful with the amount of strain you put yourself under mate, myself and a couple of family members got our sense of smell back before feeling completely symptom free, then within a day feeling like we were hit by a train. We seem to have had similar symptoms to you, although your timetable is massively accelerated.

A couple of days of doing very little might be in order - imagine someone with a cold sneezed on you, expect and prepare to get ill, then just be happy if you don't.
 
nme_pro said:
Probably a bit late to this but I'd be careful with the amount of strain you put yourself under mate, myself and a couple of family members got our sense of smell back before feeling completely symptom free, then within a day feeling like we were hit by a train. We seem to have had similar symptoms to you, although your timetable is massively accelerated.

A couple of days of doing very little might be in order - imagine someone with a cold sneezed on you, expect and prepare to get ill, then just be happy if you don't.
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Yeh so I’ve been told by a few people. I’ve done nothing today (Day 6). Was fine up until 5ish. Feel knackered.
 
prateik said:
The storage temperatures for these mean a lot of countries wont be using the mRNA vaccines. I dont think India has the infrastructure to transport and store them at the needed temperature.
China and Russia are doing their own thing too.. so 750m wont cover everyone who needs this.. but it'll be a decent chunk... Moderna will have one too.
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I know that from my work, that UNICEF are leading the procurement and distribution of the vaccines in developing countries.

 
rotherham_red said:
I know that from my work, that UNICEF are leading the procurement and distribution of the vaccines in developing countries.

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I wasn't suggesting India won't get any vaccine.. just that we probably wont get this one.. at least not anytime soon.
 
After all this clears I hope the world pulls together to go at China, feck knows how they’re just plodding along as if nothing has happened whilst millions die around the world.
 
Even if the vaccine is out in November its going to take a considerable amount of time to get enough people vaccinated to let us head back to relatively normal life.
 
Stack said:
Even if the vaccine is out in November its going to take a considerable amount of time to get enough people vaccinated to let us head back to relatively normal life.
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What is the plan in NZ?

The aim in Australia is for a large (but unspecified) number of people to be vaccinated by midyear and everyone (or as high a % as possible) by late 2021.
 
Wibble said:
What is the plan in NZ?

The aim in Australia is for a large (but unspecified) number of people to be vaccinated by midyear and everyone (or as high a % as possible) by late 2021.
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We have an initial number of doses for 750,000 but after that Im not sure what the next effort will be. Im thinking that in terms of most of the planet getting to a more normal place its going to take at least a year, probably 2. The logistics of it all are pretty huge.
 
prateik said:
I wasn't suggesting India won't get any vaccine.. just that we probably wont get this one.. at least not anytime soon.
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You'll get the AZN one. They all target the spike protein and the likelihood of them succeeding is higher after Pfizer's success.

India is the biggest manufacturer of vaccines and I think is producing 1 billion doses of the AZN/Oxford one.
 
Wibble said:
What is the plan in NZ?

The aim in Australia is for a large (but unspecified) number of people to be vaccinated by midyear and everyone (or as high a % as possible) by late 2021.
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That will be the aim everywhere. Full roll-out as soon as possible. Remains to be seen how many countries achieve that aim. Will be a hell of a lot of jockeying for access between now and then with countries/regions that have the most buying power likely to head the queue.

The more vaccines approved in the next 6-12 months the less frantic the scramble.
 
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If we were to get multiple vaccines, is it possible that people will be choosing which vaccine they want to take, weighing up different pros and cons? Or is that something that would just be dictated by the profile of that person and decided by the health service, presumably with some costs taken into account?
 
Pogue Mahone said:
That will be the aim everywhere. Full roll-out as soon as possible. Remains to be seen how many countries achieve that aim. Will be a hell of a lot of jockeying for access between now and then with countries/regions that have the most buying power likely to head the queue.

The more vaccines approved in the next 6-12 months the less frantic the scramble.
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And complicated by which vaccines each country has to import vs manufacture under license.

Australia will manufacture the Oxford vaccine and a UQ one that will hopefully be through Phase 3 by mid 2021 and import a couple of the mRNA ones (Phizer and another one).
 
Brwned said:
If we were to get multiple vaccines, is it possible that people will be choosing which vaccine they want to take, weighing up different pros and cons? Or is that something that would just be dictated by the profile of that person and decided by the health service, presumably with some costs taken into account?
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Hard to know but I suspect supply will be the key determining factor in most countries although some of the vaccines that require very cold storage conditions might be less suitable for some parts of the world.
 
Stack said:
We have an initial number of doses for 750,000 but after that Im not sure what the next effort will be. Im thinking that in terms of most of the planet getting to a more normal place its going to take at least a year, probably 2. The logistics of it all are pretty huge.
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I'm also wondering if NZ might benefit if AU made huge quantities of the UQ vaccine as planned. I assume that a NZ/AU bubble gradually expanding to our pacific neighbors might well be a very high priority for all concerned.
 
So like other pre-orders do you think Hancock and BoJo will be queuing outside the store at midnight?

meanwhile everyone who waits for the craziness to settle will get “out of stock” for months and try to pick it up on eBay
 
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