Oh right! I thought it was AZ as in AstraZeneca
So did I at first!
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
So did I at first!
Doesnt Pfizer plan on using temperature controlled boxes to overcome the lack of a cold chain in developing nations?
Very good news and potentially great news for mRNA vaccines as a novel technology too
But I want to read a full study or report, annoyed that an announcement of this magnitude had a brief press release
But going by the press release
-43,538 participants so far, 38,955 have received a second dose, trial started on july 27th
-total of 164 confirmed COVID-19 cases have accrued since then (?presumably 90% in the placebo or just one vaccine arm but no breakdown of this)
-still analysing to see if prevents against severe covid disease
-data going to be submitted for scientific peer-review publication but no timeframe mentioned
Efficacy of more than 90% to be honest would be pretty extraordinary if true
But I want to read a full study or report, annoyed that an announcement of this magnitude had a brief press release
But going by the press release
-43,538 participants so far, 38,955 have received a second dose, trial started on july 27th
-total of 164 confirmed COVID-19 cases have accrued since then (?presumably 90% in the placebo or just one vaccine arm but no breakdown of this)
-still analysing to see if prevents against severe covid disease
-data going to be submitted for scientific peer-review publication but no timeframe mentioned
Efficacy of more than 90% to be honest would be pretty extraordinary if true
I said this a week ago by the way. My wife is involved in helping the storage of the vaccines too - she mentioned at the time they are to be stored at liquid nitrogen levels or something, so it's creating an issue for storage at GP practices. Hospitals are working on storing on their side and delivering but they need to be used within 5 days of delivery.
Nope. 94. They are waiting for 164 to get enough data to submit for an EUA I think
I didn't know that. would be great if they could find a way.. especially if this works considerably better than the more traditional vaccines.
Last I read (a couple of months back), it was basically saying India would be waiting for the traditional vaccine and not the mRNA ones .
Nice news for a change.
But question from an utter dimwit...
If it's got a 90% success rate, that would still mean 10% are still vulnerable to the disease. Now, this may be an unfounded assumption, but surely those 10% who are still vulnerable to the disease post-vaccine are likely to be those who suffer the worst from Covid?
Going off the assumption that ~1.5-2% (?) of people with Covid actually require medical care when suffering from the disease in a world where a vaccine isn't available, does this vaccine merely protect those against the disease who didn't really require protection to begin with? Also, that 10% could still see hospitals/healthcare infrastructure hugely overwhelmed during a strong surge of cases.
Given the whole point of lockdown is to avoid overwhelming key infrastructure services, does a vaccine with a 90% success rate do that?
Again, I cannot emphasise enough how little I know about this, so any input one way or another would be appreciated!
But question from an utter dimwit...
If it's got a 90% success rate, that would still mean 10% are still vulnerable to the disease. Now, this may be an unfounded assumption, but surely those 10% who are still vulnerable to the disease post-vaccine are likely to be those who suffer the worst from Covid?
Going off the assumption that ~1.5-2% (?) of people with Covid actually require medical care when suffering from the disease in a world where a vaccine isn't available, does this vaccine merely protect those against the disease who didn't really require protection to begin with? Also, that 10% could still see hospitals/healthcare infrastructure hugely overwhelmed during a strong surge of cases.
Given the whole point of lockdown is to avoid overwhelming key infrastructure services, does a vaccine with a 90% success rate do that?
Again, I cannot emphasise enough how little I know about this, so any input one way or another would be appreciated!
"However there are logistical challenges, as the vaccine has to be kept in ultra-cold storage at below minus 80C"
I don't think we'll be seeing this in your commercial pharmacies any time soon. But I reckon at least another couple of the candidates will get approved by the end of the year, so this will be massive
I don't think we'll be seeing this in your commercial pharmacies any time soon. But I reckon at least another couple of the candidates will get approved by the end of the year, so this will be massive
Stats always melt my head but that does seem like a very low number of events so you’d wonder about the statistical significance of their findings. Next data cut will be important
With any vaccine you expect there to not be total 100% immunity due to various factors like age, g3netics etc. But the main idea is that if it protects enough people so that transmission rates in the community go down, it is very unlikely for those in whom the vaccine doesn't work to catch the disease, simply because there is now an acquired herd immunity to stop transmission.
Sure, ideally a vaccine would protect everyone, but, especially for this virus which has an R rate of around 2-3, having 60-70% immunity should be enough to put the brakes on this pandemic. The challenge now is getting it to everyone as quickly and efficiently as possible.
There’s actually a good chance the opposite is the case. The vaccine might give partial protection to some people, so they catch the virus but don’t get very sick. We won’t know until they release all the data on those 94 cases and the individual outcomes.
So will this vaccine be shared to get it rolled out quicker or is this one of those "We are the saviours so we want the money" deal?
How can long term effects be known when it is such a new development?
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ws...vaccination-distribution-campaign-11603272614
These boxes come with their own set of logistic problems, but could be a way for India to get at least some frontline workers vaccinated.
Indeed that's my concern too, depends of where those tests were, I'd be more convinced if they tested it in a place thats a hotbed for covid community transmissions with higher covid incidences in the placebo group than what's reported to be more certain
I think given what's at stake, essentially were're going to be having phase IV post-marketing surveillance as a pseudo-phase III in terms of efficacy
The only thing big pharma and governments were worried about is whether its safe and more than somewhat effective to roll out
Not ideal given the first lot of vaccination patients will be the elderly/vulnerable and you want to get it right for them which means studying phase for a lot longer period than what has been done with more robust data.
The World Health Organization special envoy person was worried about behavioural changes in response to this news and what that means for acute rise in transmissions.
Trump is going to flip
«THEY WERE SITTING ON THIS UNTIL AFTER THE ELECTION! VERY BAD!»
Even if they file for an EUA by end of Nov, they wont get approval this year.. so they better have some huge storage facilities for those if they are ramping up production right now.
Since you seem to know a bit about this - what are the chances of this being available in India? Is it a no-go even in the metros?
If you're healthy, under 50 and not a frontline worker its unlikely you'll get vaccinated in 2021.
I really don't know much.. Seen a few interviews on the JAMA(The Journal of the American Medical Association) youtube channel .. One was with someone on the panel which will be advising the FDA about the vaccines and he was talking about the process.. said the FDA wont give out a licence anytime soon.. need long term data.. so anything that'll be approved will now will get an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA).
Said the process of reviewing an application takes about a couple of months.. The Pfizer press release says they expect to have data from 164 cases by the 3rd week of Nov after which they'll file for an EUA. So its unlikely that they get approval this year.
About India.. everything so far suggests we have our eggs in the Oxford vaccine basket.. which should have their data soon too.. Haven't heard anything about us getting the mRNA ones.. (pfizer or Moderna).
Don't think we have any deal in place either.. so even if we change our minds and work towards setting up some supply chain in the big cities, dont expect us to get a shipment anytime soon..
But again.. I have no information.. just nothing I have read so far suggests its happening.
Does anyone know how prevalent ‘hospital acquired’ COVID is now, please?
I have an op scheduled in 2 weeks time with ELHT.
I’m over 60 with a couple of underlying health conditions, which are controlled with meds. I’m just wondering if I should cancel?
I have an op scheduled in 2 weeks time with ELHT.
I’m over 60 with a couple of underlying health conditions, which are controlled with meds. I’m just wondering if I should cancel?
Looks like the UK have followed a similar trajectory to Ireland: held off on putting in harsh restrictions to begin with, watched cases soar for the next couple of weeks, and then by the time they put in the harsh restrictions the previous restrictions had started taking an impact and things have levelled off. Not exactly what the politicians were aiming for but might end up "crushing" the curve above and beyond what they were aiming for. In the first two weeks of October the UK went from 8k to around 16k on the 7-day average, in the last two weeks they've went from 21k to 22k. Ireland went from ~ 500 on the 7th to ~1,200 on the 21st October, back down to under 500 now.
Good news in terms of bringing things back under a bit of control in the short-term, with seemingly more good news to look forward to in the long-term
Good news in terms of bringing things back under a bit of control in the short-term, with seemingly more good news to look forward to in the long-term
It's a good week!
Did we already all get excited about this nasal spray thing? It's only ferrets so far, but if it works in people, something you can send anywhere in the world freeze-dried, mix with a bit of water, and protect people from Covid through something no more difficult than your hayfever medicine seems great.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/health/coronavirus-ferrets-vaccine-spray.html
Did we already all get excited about this nasal spray thing? It's only ferrets so far, but if it works in people, something you can send anywhere in the world freeze-dried, mix with a bit of water, and protect people from Covid through something no more difficult than your hayfever medicine seems great.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/05/health/coronavirus-ferrets-vaccine-spray.html
Looks like the UK have followed a similar trajectory to Ireland: held off on putting in harsh restrictions to begin with, watched cases soar for the next couple of weeks, and then by the time they put in the harsh restrictions the previous restrictions had started taking an impact and things have levelled off. Not exactly what the politicians were aiming for but might end up "crushing" the curve above and beyond what they were aiming for.
Good news in terms of bringing things back under a bit of control in the short-term, with seemingly more good news to look forward to in the long-term
Was going to ask that exact question! Not been following numbers closely but looks like the UK caseload levelled out before the lockdown even started? Great if so. Wonder why that isn’t happening elsewhere in Europe? Maybe advantage of being an island finally kicking in?!
Yeah good question! I'd not looked elsewhere so I'd hopefully assumed that was just happening everywhere. France still looking pretty grim based on Saturday's figures so that's a bit of a head-scratcher. Looks like Italy might be doing similarly? Your guess is as good as mine!
Looks like the UK have followed a similar trajectory to Ireland: held off on putting in harsh restrictions to begin with, watched cases soar for the next couple of weeks, and then by the time they put in the harsh restrictions the previous restrictions had started taking an impact and things have levelled off. Not exactly what the politicians were aiming for but might end up "crushing" the curve above and beyond what they were aiming for. In the first two weeks of October the UK went from 8k to around 16k on the 7-day average, in the last two weeks they've went from 21k to 22k. Ireland went from ~ 500 on the 7th to ~1,200 on the 21st October, back down to under 500 now.
Good news in terms of bringing things back under a bit of control in the short-term, with seemingly more good news to look forward to in the long-term
I think it's partly the balance between different areas. Look at the interactive map here: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map for the difference between last week and this week. Around Liverpool and Lancashire, cases have come down sharply (probably due to going into T3 early) but the rest of the country still seems to be trending worse.
Friday and Saturday are always huge numbers in Italy. You have to look on a rolling 7 day basis to get a truer picture.
Since the schools went back and all hell broke loose again there have been no further restrictions until last week. It will be a little while before it starts to have an effect.
Still good news I'd say! If you look at places like London or the North East, things are still a lot higher than they were at the beginning of September, but things are levelling off a bit. Along with tackling the rapid spread in the North West, I think that's something to be happy about! We know it's spread around the country more than you'd want, so the national measures will help in that sense.
At the same time the other national measures have been successful: Wales and Northern Ireland falling continuously, Scotland on the way down a bit slower. So there's parts of the South that are still going the wrong direction but not with the same concerns about overwhelmed health systems in the North West a while back, and they're being attacked a bit earlier in the curve this time round. Won't be long before the complaints of the UK not finding the right balance start cropping up again, I reckon.
That's all very fair. Really, it's a relief to see that stringent measures have resulted in a strong turnaround. Let's hope that by December all the intensive care docs are sat around twiddling their thumbs with the lack of covid and flu patients.
Maybe even give them the beds to snooze on!
I do think that's one part of the conversation that gets left out quite a lot. The focus is on not taking the NHS to its capacity, and if you've done that, you've succeeded. But the amount of work they're getting through when things are anywhere near the limit is pretty absurd. We just take it for granted that "that's what they signed up for", but really, it's not. Never mind what they're taking home with them, whenever they manage to get home. Can't imagine what the folks in Belgium are going through.
Although it's not deliberate, I do think it shows a basic lack of respect for the NHS staff to just say "as long as they're not on the edge, we should open things back up so I can get on with my life". For the NHS staff who dealt with local peaks pushing the to the limit, it'll be a defining point of their career, and not a very pleasant one. A lot were close to breaking point before the pandemic hit. I really do hope we follow through on plans to invest a bit more in the NHS, and properly reward those people. It'd be a bit tragic if we get a vaccine and most people go back to not paying any attention to them.
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I was listening on the radio last week, that they think that might be because of half term.
Wouldn't storage requirements be more stringent for a protein (antigen) rather than RNA vaccine?
This is a Tory government, don’t count on it!
Quite possibly. Although in Ireland we plateau’s before half term. When did UK kids go back to school?
Don’t the RNA vaccines use a viral vector? Maybe that’s why they need to be kept so cold?