SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Pablo76 said:
@Hernandez - BFA

Out of interest, are you working within the NHS in the UK?

I know somebody very close to me who has been working as a nurse on the front line, in one of the biggest hospitals in the UK, since this kicked off, and without hesitation she tells me it definitely happens.
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Yes I am.

Entitled to her statement - but I don't think she'd know what people are putting down.
Plus as @Pogue Mahone said, I'm not sure why a doctor would feel the need to put down COVID on a death certificate when it isn't relevant to the death. You can say what you want about how the government has dealt with this, but I don't see why there is a conspiracy that doctors are in on it :lol: We're the ones who do these death certificates - I have very little to gain for putting the words COVID down when it's not close to the relevancy of the case. The patient's family sees these so it would come to bite us in the ass if they clock it and say "So COVID killed him?! You told us it was a heart attack!".

I can't think of many who would risk their jobs by getting it wrong.
I remember when I accidently put the wrong diagnosis down on a death certificate in the first year of work - and I had the coroner ring me up demanding me for a statement as to why I put it down on the death certificate.
 
Hernandez - BFA said:
Yes I am.

Entitled to her statement - but I don't think she'd know what people are putting down.
Plus as @Pogue Mahone said, I'm not sure why a doctor would feel the need to put down COVID on a death certificate when it isn't relevant to the death. You can say what you want about how the government has dealt with this, but I don't see why there is a conspiracy that doctors are in on it :lol: We're the ones who do these death certificates - I have very little to gain for putting the words COVID down when it's not close to the relevancy of the case. The patient's family sees these so it would come to bite us in the ass if they clock it and say "So COVID killed him?! You told us it was a heart attack!".

I can't think of many who would risk their jobs by getting it wrong.
I remember when I accidently put the wrong diagnosis down on a death certificate in the first year of work - and I had the coroner ring me up demanding me for a statement as to why I put it down on the death certificate.
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Definitely not accusing you of anything, and thanks for putting yourself on the line. The NHS is truly amazing.
 
F-Red said:
UK figures for today - 378 deaths, 24,141 new cases.
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New cases seem to be fairly stable, been 25k for a couple of weeks now so hopefully that will go significantly down with lockdown.
 
golden_blunder said:
If ever I wished Covid on someone full dose it’s that cnut
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Yeah he is such a horrible person. Just think of all those countries he invaded when he was President of the US. Not to mention being complicit in genocide.

Oh wait...
 
Are we likely to see a surge in the US after the election with the rallying, voting, counting and people gathering waiting for results. It`s quite worrying .
 
djembatheking said:
Are we likely to see a surge in the US after the election with the rallying, voting, counting and people gathering waiting for results. It`s quite worrying .
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It's been surging for the last month, I don't think it'll alter the current trend they're seeing I don't think.
 
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.04.355842v1

This seems like bad news to me. Variant that is less neutralised by a number of monoclonal antibodies and convalescent serum. I would have liked to see them challenge immunised mice with it though, to see whether the ability to evade antibodies was significant outside of a test tube.

Says to me that, long term, vaccines might have to be redesigned and re-administered to account for genetic drift, which is the case for flu vaccine, but I was hoping wouldn’t be required as frequently for covid. It also emphasises the need for a simultaneous world wide vaccination campaign to reduce the chance of vaccine evasion strains happening. Something the WHO has been trying to orchestrate but the US has pulled out of.

Hopefully we will get a Twitter thread by a virologist soon explaining why it’s not as bad as it sounds. If these lineages are already around then it seems they would re-emerge quickly post-vaccination of a fraction the population.
 
Tony Babangida said:
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.04.355842v1

This seems like bad news to me. Variant that is less neutralised by a number of monoclonal antibodies and convalescent serum. I would have liked to see them challenge immunised mice with it though, to see whether the ability to evade antibodies was significant outside of a test tube.

Says to me that, long term, vaccines might have to be redesigned and re-administered to account for genetic drift, which is the case for flu vaccine, but I was hoping wouldn’t be required as frequently for covid. It also emphasises the need for a simultaneous world wide vaccination campaign to reduce the chance of vaccine evasion strains happening. Something the WHO has been trying to orchestrate but the US has pulled out of.
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Holy shit. That is a worry. Is that the mink mutation?
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Holy shit. That is a worry. Is that the mink mutation?
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Yeah N439K, although the paper seems to suggest there is a variable region in the spike that is more prone to mutation, so there could be more. Need to get all these variants into vaccine mouse models ASAP! They probably already are to be fair.
 
@Tony Babangida

Is it possible that this is just freakish bad luck? The virus has very little genetic drift but by a one in a million shot, one of the earlmutations happened to affect the amino acids relevant to Ab binding? As in, we might wait years and years for a similar, clinically relevant mutation to happen again?

My understanding is that influenza mutates many many more times rapidly than coronaviridae. So it seems like terrible luck to get a mutation which is relevant to its antigenicity so soon.

EDIT: Saw your reply. If the spike is particularly prone to mutations that changes everything. Although might also lead to less virulent versions doing the rounds soon? Isn’t the spike how it binds to ACE2 receptors in the body?
 
Tony Babangida said:
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.04.355842v1

This seems like bad news to me. Variant that is less neutralised by a number of monoclonal antibodies and convalescent serum. I would have liked to see them challenge immunised mice with it though, to see whether the ability to evade antibodies was significant outside of a test tube.

Says to me that, long term, vaccines might have to be redesigned and re-administered to account for genetic drift, which is the case for flu vaccine, but I was hoping wouldn’t be required as frequently for covid. It also emphasises the need for a simultaneous world wide vaccination campaign to reduce the chance of vaccine evasion strains happening. Something the WHO has been trying to orchestrate but the US has pulled out of.

Hopefully we will get a Twitter thread by a virologist soon explaining why it’s not as bad as it sounds. If these lineages are already around then it seems they would re-emerge quickly post-vaccination of a fraction the population.
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It isn't as bad as it sounds. It is very unclear as to how, as you say, it would play out in say a host such as nice and the sort of challenge it would actually face from the immune system and that is not something you can determine from a Petri dish.

As far as future mutations go, based on what has happened so far, it remains relatively stable. However, there is of course a real concern with cross species mutations like we possibly see with mink. If we're to prevent this happening, we need to vaccinate against the current strain as quickly as possible whilst remaining aware and isolating cases where there is a serious risk of cross species mutations.

Having said that, culling 17 million mink doesn't sit right with me. Humanity needs to permanently change in this respect. Who the feck needs mink fur anyway!?

Edit: the current mutation of the spike protein also allows it to bind to specific receptors on our cells. Mutations to the protein won't necessarily work in its favour to get into human cells so there's a lot of unknowns in that respect. We can't take that risk though so it's probably the best course of action, albeit a little extreme.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
@Tony Babangida

Is it possible that this is just freakish bad luck? The virus has very little genetic drift but by a one in a million shot, one of the earl mutations happened to affect the amino acids relevant to Ab binding? As in, we might wait years and years for a similar, clinically relevant mutation to happen again?

My understanding is that influenza mutates many many more times rapidly than coronaviridae. So it seems like terrible luck to get a mutation which is relevant to its antigenicity so soon.
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Function of the number of infections around the world too. Low mutation rate but huge worldwide virus load, higher chance of mutations arising. But could have just got unlucky.

I did note that for most convalescent plasma the change in neutralisation was not huge. Which is why trying these strains in mice is necessary before freaking out (although I admit I got a shock reading the abstract).
 
2020 pressed mutation and set Vaccine development back in plague inc.?
 
Victoria has had 7 days of zero new cases and zero deaths.

We were equal with cases with the UK and France 8-12 weeks ago and now have turned it around.
 
US had nearly 120k cases yesterday. Global deaths hit an all time high as well yesterday.. and winter is just getting started in the northern hemisphere . No one has it under control.
 
For those arguing about conspiracy theories of doctors lying on the death certificates, there's no point arguing about it. Just look at excess deaths this year vs prior few years avg. The last I checked, which was awhile back, what I've seen tallies with the covid numbers or were actually higher.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
You should do that.

One thing I’ve realised from hanging out on message boards full of doctors is that even some of them believe blatantly false conspiracy theories (although never any of the ones who are day to day treating dead/dying covid patients) so would be no surprise at all if nurses are prone to the same.

It’s a terrible fecking shame but Facebook/Twitter bullshit seems to be even more contagious than the virus.
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I know of a nurse who actually believed it's just a flu. And she actually works at a covid isolation/recovery center where people were all either asymptomatic or recovering. And she based her assumption on seeing all the asymptomatic people. It's so stupid. I told her to please go to an actual covid hospital and look at the icu patients there.

Just goes to show even some medical workers are some times no better than some stupid cnuts off the street.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
You should do that.

One thing I’ve realised from hanging out on message boards full of doctors is that even some of them believe blatantly false conspiracy theories (although never any of the ones who are day to day treating dead/dying covid patients) so would be no surprise at all if nurses are prone to the same.

It’s a terrible fecking shame but Facebook/Twitter bullshit seems to be even more contagious than the virus.
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This post is spot on in my experience as well. It's fairly rare to see a medical doctor be a "non believer" but in the rest of the medical staff conspiracy theories are at an all time high. Social media has really poisoned many peoples minds.
 
This paper is interesting/good.

They’ve looked at the B cells which produce Ab’s several months after someone is infected. We know that initial circulating Ab’s decrease after a few months but it looks as though the cells that produce them can subsequently churn new ones out that are even more effective than those produced to fight the initial infection. And they can do this much quicker the second time round.

They found residual virus in the small intestine and theorise that these help the immune system evolve and refine its response.

Obviously, a vaccine won’t have the same effect but does look like very good news for those that recover from being infected.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
This paper is interesting/good.

They’ve looked at the B cells which produce Ab’s several months after someone is infected. We know that initial circulating Ab’s decrease after a few months but it looks as though the cells that produce them can subsequently churn new ones out that are even more effective than those produced to fight the initial infection. And they can do this much quicker the second time round.

They found residual virus in the small intestine and theorise that these help the immune system evolve and refine its response.

Obviously, a vaccine won’t have the same effect but does look like very good news for those that recover from being infected.
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Biology is fascinating.
 
Compton22 said:
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/denmark-coronavirus-minsk-covid-b1637064.html?amp

214 infected with mutated strain from minks since June, looking good that it does not seem to be more virulent than other strains and we can get on top of it before it takes hold.
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I am reading about this in a Norwegian newspaper and I see that some danish politicians is afraid of re-starting the Pandemic due to the strain being so different from the others that the vaccines being developed vould be non-efficient for this particular strain. Also danish politicians being afraid of Denmark becoming a new Wuhan.

The new strain can transmit from minks to humans (and the other way around) so I can see the possible problems here. I also heard they found it in mink in Sweden now.

I really hope your politicians is just fearful and that these scenarios is not for real. I would hate for this situation to start all over again blergh..

this is the Norwegian article on this :

https://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/dansk-frykt---kan-bli-det-nye-wuhan/73038131

You will have to google translate though.


Edit: WHO is looking into the new strain vs. vaccines being developed. Also looking into other elements of the mink strain problem like the security of mink farms in the world etc.
 
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Cardboard elk said:
I am reading about this in a Norwegian newspaper and I see that some danish politicians is afraid of re-starting the Pandemic due to the strain being so different from the others that the vaccines being developed vould be non-efficient for this particular strain. Also danish politicians being afraid of Denmark becoming a new Wuhan.

The new strain can transmit from minks to humans (and the other way around) so I can see the possible problems here. I also heard they found it in mink in Sweden now.

I really hope your politicians is just fearful and that these scenarios is not for real. I would hate for this situation to start all over again blergh..

this is the Norwegian article on this :

https://www.dagbladet.no/nyheter/dansk-frykt---kan-bli-det-nye-wuhan/73038131

You will have to google translate though.


Edit: WHO is looking into the new strain vs. vaccines being developed. Also looking into other elements of the mink strain problem like the security of mink farms in the world etc.
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They are not sure how different this new strain is, they are just afraid of the possibility of it being vastly different to any vaccine that is being prepared against it. However, until research is done they can't be sure so it is best to be as safe as possible. Close the borders and supervise isolation and learn from the mistakes of Wuhan.

It's a small chance it could start a new pandemic, but it's still a chance.
 
Compton22 said:
They are not sure how different this new strain is, they are just afraid of the possibility of it being vastly different to any vaccine that is being prepared against it. However, until research is done they can't be sure so it is best to be as safe as possible. Close the borders and supervise isolation and learn from the mistakes of Wuhan.

It's a small chance it could start a new pandemic, but it's still a chance.
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Yes, but they have found that this particular strain is more resistant to anti-bodies. So it may be plausible I guess. Time will show. Lets hope it is nothing to be afraid of.
 
Champ said:
Have heard it from a source that is actively working on a vaccine that it will be ready for December, possibly at the end of this month.

The newspaper headlines are true, and barring any last minute hitches, NHS front line workers will get the vaccine.
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December is at the end of this month bud.
 
Compton22 said:
They are not sure how different this new strain is, they are just afraid of the possibility of it being vastly different to any vaccine that is being prepared against it. However, until research is done they can't be sure so it is best to be as safe as possible. Close the borders and supervise isolation and learn from the mistakes of Wuhan.

It's a small chance it could start a new pandemic, but it's still a chance.
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It’s a bit more than a possibility of it being different. They have in vitro proof of it being resistant to neutralising antibodies for the non-mutated version.

In vitro differences won’t necessarily translate to in vivo models and some resistance doesn’t mean you don’t get any immunity at all. But still.... Good decision to cull all the mink anyway. Hopefully that’s the end of it.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
It’s a bit more than a possibility of it being different. They have in vitro proof of it being resistant to neutralising antibodies for the non-mutated version.

In vitro differences won’t necessarily translate to in vivo models and some resistance doesn’t mean you don’t get any immunity at all. But still.... Good decision to cull all the mink anyway. Hopefully that’s the end of it.
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The vaccine is done ffs. It has been for some time in many places. Problem has been the stage 3 that usually takes hundreds of millions to do( and thus many years), but now it's done with government money.
 
jackal&hyde said:
The vaccine is done ffs. It has been for some time in many places. Problem has been the stage 3 that usually takes hundreds of millions to do( and thus many years), but now it's done with government money.
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I’m not entirely sure what your point is but literally everything you’ve written there is wrong. Especially the last sentence. First two sentences are also wrong, mind you.
 
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