Full scale footy night match going on in the community pitches beside us. So much for level 5
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Aye, it's a cracking post is that.
I haven't noticed much change tbh, everywhere still appears open, apart from bars and restaurants. Every shop in the country pretending they're essential.
Traffic on first lock down was awesome, barely anyone about, last couple days still been a shitshow on the roads.
Getting interesting again in Italy. I have two big hospitals within a few miles of me and one of them has said they now have to triage ambulances into their A&E because they've run out of space. They keep a handful of beds for critical emergencies but otherwise they have to go elsewhere, and are asking for the closed hotels to be used as makeshift quarantine wards because the Covid patients are taking so long to discharge even if not particularly serious.
The atmosphere is markedly different this time round though. People are not scared anymore, just tired of it.
The atmosphere is markedly different this time round though. People are not scared anymore, just tired of it.
It sounds bad, and the numbers are going up by leaps and bounds. We feel a bit cushioned from it here in Marche, we're a yellow region so nothing's changed in terms of the restrictions. There are cases in the village though, which is worrying as it's a very small place.
i think one narrative that can easily be sustained through all this is about the human relationship with animals, but it will not get the attention it deserves. in china it did for a while, since they are the cruel communist dictatorial "other" eating bats, civilisd enlightened social-democratic denmark is less easy to scold.
There’s been a few posts in this thread along the line of “feck mink farms” tbf
Mind you, I had to get down of my high horse when someone reminded me that most of that mink fur will end up being worn in China.
fair. the fact that it happened with minks is a particuar accident; concentrated animal farms, which are all over the world now, are perfect for this. add to that habitat loss, contact with wild animals, and animal antibiotic overuse (thinking beyond Sars-cov-2 and about new bugs in general)
It's still a long way from April when beds were being put in the parking garage but it is getting worse. Lots more ambulances around. Lombardy will always be hit because of the population density, but we are not the only ones this time. Like I say people here are not scared now, just weary and annoyed that after 6+ months to learn and prepare we are back where we started.
Yeah, good points. In pharma land one of the big existential threats people have been talking about for years is multi drug resistant bacteria. Which has a lot to do with the intensive farming and overuse of antibiotics in animals. Not quite as dramatic as a novel viral pandemic but could easily match the death toll.
i have been a TA for a couple of lab courses
1. there's a paper from about 10 years ago that the US has 2% of the population already carrying methicillin-resistant staph aureus. Now, it does nothing if you're fine, but it's deadly and very difficult to treat if you're immuno-compromised.
we anonymously test our students for MRSA (ironcially, it's cotton swabs up the nose, so they were vry faimilar with how to do it this time). the number carrying it has never been less than 40%.
2. one of the labs did a field trip to a university-run pig farm (presumably, one that follows laws) in a neighbouring city, and took soil samples. the bacteria grew on antibiotic plates with no problem.
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I’m firmly in the "feck mink farms" boat, but according to this article the mink-corona could already be gone. No proven human cases of this strain since september.
One of capitalism’s biggest failings could be in this area. Free market economics means we don’t have the right incentives for pharma companies to make big investments in developing drugs which are taken very infrequently and only for 7-10 days at a time. I wonder if the pandemic might focus minds on addressing this elephant in the room.
I've just had an invite to join the Novavax vaccine phase three trial. Anyone know anything about this vaccine and it's story so far?
Also, I've managed to confuse myself over whether I want to be in a trial - or just sit and wait for whatever the NHS starts dishing out next year. Oddly, it's not the trial bit that bothers me - the trial vaccine might be better than the approved one (whichever one that is) - it's the other what ifs.
In this case it's the what if I get a placebo instead, that would be really annoying (and how long before they tell me that I'd better go and have the real thing!). And what if taking the approved vaccine let me travel more freely, or do things (like go to football matches) and the trial one didn't. Realistic worries?
Also, I've managed to confuse myself over whether I want to be in a trial - or just sit and wait for whatever the NHS starts dishing out next year. Oddly, it's not the trial bit that bothers me - the trial vaccine might be better than the approved one (whichever one that is) - it's the other what ifs.
In this case it's the what if I get a placebo instead, that would be really annoying (and how long before they tell me that I'd better go and have the real thing!). And what if taking the approved vaccine let me travel more freely, or do things (like go to football matches) and the trial one didn't. Realistic worries?
If it's still in trial I doubt anyone would know much as all will be secret ?
Any trial vaccine would come with higher risks of side effects, possibly serious or even mortal ones. Hence the trial, everyone is built slightly differently and you can never predict exactly how their body will react.
Don't see any reason why you wouldn't be able to get an approved vaccine just because you did a trial of a different one ?
I do know done things about it. Its manufacturer has never managed to get a vaccine to market. It's a different type of vaccine to the Oxford/Astra version - using a more traditional vaccine methodology in some respects. It showed strong antibody reactions in phase 1/2. Sometimes people on here know/understand more though.
I guess it's your last paragraph that I'm most curious/concerned about. Once in a trial, it would seem to defeat the trial objective if I could then get another vaccine - how could they know if it was vaccine A or vaccine B protecting me (or indeed causing an adverse reaction).
I guess the answer is unknowable, the trial ends when the statistical data on its efficacy comes in, which could be three months or twelve, or never if the trial runs out of covid cases (wishful thinking there I guess). I'm just curious about the what ifs for the placebo group, and the idea that a de-facto vaccine "passport" might appear next year.
Results are in and I have it. It's bizarre as I'm fine.
Going to be on redcafe a lot during isolation!
I'm not going to lie. I have only myself to blame. I have to admit I let my guard down. Stopped being anal with the hand sanitiser. I have no idea where I got it but I am exposed in a few different places. Gym, my son going to nursery. Went to a restaurant on Tuesday night. The post man even? So could be anything.
I wouldn’t take one. The Oxford one is coming along decently by all accounts and so is Pfizer. An approved vaccine is around the corner for high risk individuals and healthy adults maybe 6-7 months away.
It’s possible Novavax fails, and you end up In unknown territory on whether you can take multiple vaccines.
Honestly don’t get the incentive to participate in a phase 3 now.
Dont beat yourself up over it chap, we are all here if you need us fella
Cheers mate. It’s already been a difficult 2 nights. I’ve left my home away from my son and wife as I know my son wouldn’t be able to distance from me. Locked myself in my parent house in my old bedroom, obviously taking care I’m safe with my parents. Everyone else has booked for a test now. Will see how contagious this is. I’d be surprised if my son and wife don’t have it.
8 nights to go!
You probably got it by stopping using sanitizer on your anus!
Use it as an excuse to binge watch netflix and order takeaway and it will fly by mate
That's funny
Oddly enough i had a bland dominos last night. Either we both have covid or they changed their recipes.
I have Covid! Could be a complete coincidence though.
But you said you were being anal with the sanitizer.
Don’t know any of the medical history of your family so please don’t take this advice the wrong way but wouldn’t you be better off staying with your wife and kids and away from your parents? The age of your parents mean the risk to them of a bad outcome if they catch covid is many multiples higher than it is to your wife/son.
Assuming your son is quite young, the risk is so trivial it’s not worth worrying about. Plus, as you say, there’s a good chance he’s been exposed already. He may not be able to distance from you properly but your parents can’t be 100% protected either, so long as they share a house with you.
Edit: Also. Get well soon! Feels weird giving online medical advice to the only caftard I’ve ever met...
Obviously it was a difficult decision. My wife does need protection too. My setup here at my parents is pretty good in terms of them being safe. They literally won’t set foot in this part of the house. It is a risk though.
I perhaps made the decision in panic, so we have been talking about potentially my parents moving out to my brothers. So I’d have the place to myself. Depends on everyone’s results I guess.
My parents were already in my childcare bubble so I literally saw them hours before I had symptoms.
All a bit crazy this!
Grand. You’ve obviously thought it through carefully. Best of luck anyway. Crazy times indeed!
Finland with a lowest rate of infection (per 14days and 100k population) in Europe at 52.8. Second lowest is over 100% more. But of course we are just kicking that can forward like a wise RABbi educated us in this thread.
So my wife, son, mum, dad have all tested negative. Which I’m delighted about. But also confused. I can’t think how my son who shoves his hands in my mouth, and my wife who I share a bed with haven’t got it!
Good news! all the best
The last Domino's I had was bland as feck. Proof positive that covid was around earlier than we though. About 8 years earlier.
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I couldn't find the article but I wonder if the opinion was because serious side effects that develop later than 2 months after it is given combined with the vaccine trials stopping if it becomes apparent they are more than 77% effective as it is no longer ethical to allow test subjects on the placebo to become infected (half way through the article below)?
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/07/could-a-covid-vaccine-bring-back-normality
The only bit of that paragraph is that vaccine development is expensive. However everything else in there is utterly wrong.
Vaccine development is going well so far. Hopefully we will get more specific good news this month.
The length of phase 3 trials isn't anything to directly do with the cost. The urgent need has pushed the speed but not by compromising safety but by doing things like taking the financial risk of manufacturing enough subsequent phases before the previous step had reported and shortening the gaps between phases.
And government pre-purchases have given developers the confidence to risk spending big on vaccine development but barring some grants in some countries it sn't directly funded by governments.
Yeah, it's a weird one. It's a very contagious virus, but most people aren't very contagious. It's easier to think about as two series of coin flips.
The first one is "am I one of the contagious ones?" and if you flipped a coin 10 times, you'd only expect to see "yes" 2 or 3 times. Then you have very low odds of passing it onto anyone else even if you're with that person in the riskiests conditions for transmission. So for an individual the odds aren't bad. But those 2 or 3 times really matter for a wider population, because the odds flip for the next question.
If you are one of the contagious ones, then the answer to "will I pass it onto this person?" will be "yes" about 7 or 8 times out of 10, and if it's indoors, with poor ventilation and with lots of close contact, it's close to 10 out of 10. So those people that are contagious spread it to quite a lot of people, they might only be 2 of every 10, but they make up for it by passing it onto plenty more.
A lot of the coronaviruses that cause the common cold work in the exact opposite way, which is how we think about viruses. Most people are contagious, but no so contagious that they'll pass it onto most people that they'll meet. If you meet enough people, you'll probably pass it onto one or two of them, but you're very unlikely to pass it onto the group, and you're also very unlikely to pass it onto no-one. This one is more about the extremes. Which is why people worry about pubs and stuff, even with the precautions.
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Wouldn't that be odd. The border restrictions remain but for a different reason.
We had zero again today but eliminationseems just beyond reach. It will never happen but I wouldn't mind a 2 week extreme lock down to eliminate it from NSW.
people aren't supposed to get tests just for being in contact with a positive as people are unlikely to test positive during the incubation period so they could all have it but not yet be in an infectious period