SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Mr Pigeon said:
I agree, but if people are hearing their PM use weak phrases like "we advise you" instead of "oi, shitface. Don't fecking do it or we'll throw you down a well" then people are more likely to take the piss.
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And I agree with you, but would it have been any different if they’d have used that language? Would everyone have actually behaved differently?
 
FootballHQ said:
Can't understand them not closing Universities. They acted as a super spreader in late September and just seems like a massive waste of time currently with students currently under student flat arrest for 9k + a year.

Surely the academic year could've been started in January and students could've cracked on with a couple of online lectures and reading lists at home in this present time?

Like everything else now it's neither stick or twist.
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Our place is great. Young adults walking in groups without masks and all the hand wash dispensaries have that crappy 70% alcohol foamy wash in them.
 
Volumiza said:
And I agree with you, but would it have been any different if they’d have used that language? Would everyone have actually behaved differently?
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Oh, no chance! Folk would've still acted like twats, but at the very least the rest of us could look out of our lockdown windows and enjoy the sight of twenty junkie kids getting cracked over the head by police batons!
 
Mr Pigeon said:
I agree, but if people are hearing their PM use weak phrases like "we advise you" instead of "oi, shitface. Don't fecking do it or we'll throw you down a well" then people are more likely to take the piss.

The buck does stop with people but when people aren't being told things straight, or see their government reps ignoring the rules themselves and waving away the accusations against them, then twats will continue to act like twats. It also doesn't help when authorities aren't enforcing the regulations that are put in place. Gatherings of kids hanging outside? Police don't care. No mask in the shops? Shops can't enforce it and police don't care. Not surprising since our police forces have been bleeding money for years due to poor funding and our health service is equally fecked. These are knock on effects from subsequent governments cutting their money and, in my opinion, are equally important to factor in.
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Exactly, if there's no enforcement only people with a social conscience will follow the rules. It's the same in every sphere of life. I fully expect Italy to return to a national lockdown soon, and we'll be having to fill in a form to go to the nearest grocery shop again. Make going out a chore and not a pleasure and enforce it as much as you can, it's the only way to get everyone to do the right thing.

This second lockdown in the UK is going to be much more difficult to manage, with November being the time when a lot of people are in the shops buying stuff for Christmas. Bezos will be rubbing his hands with glee.
 
Mr Pigeon said:
Oh, no chance! Folk would've still acted like twats, but at the very least the rest of us could look out of our lockdown windows and enjoy the sight of twenty junkie kids getting cracked over the head by police batons!
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Oh man, I’d love to watch the police crack down on these covidiots! Then to watch the subsequent conspiracy/ moaning videos on social media.
 
Interesting Boris referred to lockdown as ‘the height of absurdity’ 10 days ago...
 
Mr Pigeon said:
Oh, no chance! Folk would've still acted like twats, but at the very least the rest of us could look out of our lockdown windows and enjoy the sight of twenty junkie kids getting cracked over the head by police batons!
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Im sold! Bit of light entertainment in these dark times :lol:
 
Anyone here did research on how likely does it spread with HVAC usage when it is being used for heating?

Few confirmed cases in my building.

I would imagine it is very unlikely (way more than when it is used for cooling) but curious if anyone has seen research on this topic.
 
acnumber9 said:
You’re the one making the point. Back it up.

If the evidence used is based on influenza for schools then surely it’s based on that for everything? Even if we go with just the 0.35 for secondary schools that’s 7 times more than the close contact services they’ve shut. And ignores universities and primary school. The evidence is in the numbers. The only thing that changed in September was schools and universities opening.
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So you can look at it from two angles. In places where schools have been open for months, has it led to a sudden surge? Alternatively, have there been sudden surges in places where there has been no changes to school measures?

When schools opened in Japan, did they have a second wave? They've been open for months now, and no second wave. But they got cases down low, so maybe it's not a fair comparison. Sweden have consistently had a much higher level of community transmission, and yet no spike due to the kids in school either.

What about somewhere like Belgium, where they re-opened schools at the beginning of September, but throughout September had around 2,000 cases per day, steady as you like. No change to schools in October, but things jump off the charts to 6x those levels. Maybe it's just a delayed effect? Instead we could look at when the peaks preceded the schools re-opening. What about in the US, state by state? Florida, Texas, Arizona had their worst period when schools were closed, and while they're on the rise again now, they're nowhere near the same level. In South Africa, they re-opened all school levels at the end of August, after getting over their first peak in mid August, and as we enter November there has been no rise in two months - 1,500 to 2,000 cases per day.

We know that the thing that you deem inexplicable - a sudden explosion in cases - has happened before schools re-opened and long after schools re-opened. We know it hasn't happened at all in cases where schools have been open for months. In other words, it's entirely possible that the explosion in cases happened irrespective of schools re-opened. Otherwise you would have seen an explosion in cases in Sweden, after many months, or you wouldn't have seen an explosion of cases in the US southern states while they were off school as normal.

All you've picked up on is a correlation. Many more people get murdered when ice cream sales go up. One didn't cause the other but they were both driven by the same underlying factor. Schools re-opened as we progressively relaxed all other aspects of life. Lots of things have changed since September, most importantly, people's attitudes. We opened schools when we felt comfortable with things, and when we felt comfortable with things, we spread the virus in normal social settings. Schools play a role in transmission but they aren't a dominant factor, and most of the role they play has nothing to do with kids passing it to each other in worryingly high numbers.
 
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Any explanation for why Boris is late?
 
Pexbo said:
Any explanation for why Boris is late?
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How on earth can he possibly be late to his own briefing on putting the country into another lockdown?

Unless there is a nuke currently travelling towards London as we speak, what could be more important right now?
 
Teaching in a school with 1600 kids, I'm a little cheesed that they aren't even implementing a rota system at the minimum.
 
africanspur said:
How on earth can he possibly be late to his own briefing on putting the country into another lockdown?

Unless there is a nuke currently travelling towards London right now, what could be more important right now?
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its pretty obvious, this is all very rushed, they wanted to do this next week, but the reporting over the last 24 hours has meant they need to get the announcement today.

It’s annoying, But I would rather they delay it for a couple of hours if there are details they need to work on.
 
Brwned said:
So you can look at it from two angles. In places where schools have been open for months, has it led to a sudden surge? Alternatively, have there been sudden surges in places where there has been no changes to school measures?

When schools opened in Japan, did they have a second wave? They've been open for months now, and no second wave. But they got cases down low, so maybe it's not a fair comparison. Sweden have consistently had a much higher level of community transmission, and yet no spike due to the kids in school either.

What about somewhere like Belgium, where they re-opened schools at the beginning of September, but throughout September had around 2,000 cases per day, steady as you like. No change to schools in October, but things jump off the charts to 6x those levels. Maybe it's just a delayed effect? Instead we could look at when the peaks preceded the schools re-opening. What about in the US, state by state? Florida, Texas, Arizona had their worst period when schools were closed, and while they're on the rise again now, they're nowhere near the same level.

We know that the thing that you deem inexplicable - a sudden explosion in cases - has happened before schools re-opened and long after schools re-opened. We know it hasn't happened at all in cases where schools have been open for months. In other words, it's entirely possible that the explosion in cases happened irrespective of schools re-opened. Otherwise you would have seen an explosion in cases in Sweden, after many months, or you wouldn't have seen an explosion of cases in the US southern states while they were off school as normal.

All you've picked up on is a correlation. Many more get murdered when ice cream sales go up. One didn't cause the other but they were part of the same general trend. Schools re-opened as we progressively relaxed all other aspects of life. Lots of things have changed since September, most importantly, people's attitudes. Schools play a role in transmission but they aren't a dominant factor, and most of the role they play has nothing to do with kids passing it to each other in worryingly high numbers.
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Well Sweden barely locked down at all did it? And still their cases now are double their peak.

Belgium is an interesting one for sure. On September 1st they had 194 cases. By October 1st that was 1337 so more than 6 times the rate. The latest figures are 23921 for October 30th. So over 120 times the rate before schools re-opened. Cases decreased between the start of August and September. You’ve chosen a terrible example.

The slower rise in cases in the US states you cite could just as easily be attributed to greater herd immunity could it not? I haven’t looked at those numbers yet. They’re still rising though.

The restrictions on hospitality were lifted in July. It caused an increase for sure. But not the increase we’ve seen since. You’ve offered no viable explanation for the massive increase and schools not being an impact. I’m not and never have claimed it’s the sole reason. It’s one of many, but it’s a big one.
 
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Mr Pigeon said:
With this lockdown or the first?
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For once it would have been nice to see our country be in a proactive state and put strong measures in place to put the numbers down BEFORE they got out of control.

Too scared of the ‘oh but it’s only x amount of infections’ brigade.
 
If the furlough scheme is not extended and maintained at 80% for the sectors affected by closures (e.g. hospitality, retail, leisure, health and beauty etc.) then you’re killing people.

We’re about to ask people who earn 8 quid an hour to survive on a fiver an hour. Utterly soul destroying.
 
Mr Pigeon said:
With this lockdown or the first?
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Berbasbullet said:
For once it would have been nice to see our country be in a proactive state and put strong measures in place to put the numbers down BEFORE they got out of control.

Too scared of the ‘oh but it’s only x amount of infections’ brigade.
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It would've also been nice to see some joined up thinking. Up here we enacted our five level strategy about, what, a week ago? There's absolutely no way that Sturgeon and Johnson haven't been discussing approaches and yet, somehow, Boris decides to finish his homework the night before the deadline date. Again.

Edit: not for a minute suggesting that the SNP have done this the right way either. Just saying that compared to the UK lot they're scholars.
 
ClaytonBlackmoorLeftPeg said:
its pretty obvious, this is all very rushed, they wanted to do this next week, but the reporting over the last 24 hours has meant they need to get the announcement today.

It’s annoying, But I would rather they delay it for a couple of hours if there are details they need to work on.
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Its not so much the few hours delay that is bothering me (we know we're going into another lockdown, there's no surprises there), its the continuing shambles of a response we've seen from him and his government.
 
OnlyTwoDaSilvas said:
Sainsbury's was barren by the time I got there late this morning, with checkout queues all the way up the aisles. Trollies piled high.

Human nature is fascinating. We never learn.
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That’s so weird. We had no panic buying at all this time. People obviously realised that the supermarkets stayed open throughout the first lockdown and would do so again. Why would anyone think it would be different second time round?
 
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