acnumber9
Full Member
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2006
- Messages
- 23,366
Your evidence was wrong though. Blatantly so. Two weeks is just a number because of the incubation period. If you want to stick to just 14 days though then Belgium had 5 times as many cases within that time period. The mistake I made was in not realising that a five fold increase is keeping cases steady.Man, all you want to do is pick holes, rather than dealing with the essential point. As I understood it, your premise was that two weeks after schools re-open, just like clockwork, cases start to rise. They didn't in Belgium, they were completely steady 2 weeks later, they rose 4 weeks later. Perhaps I misunderstood and you weren't saying that a leads to b and they follow this time-sensitive pattern that unequivocally indicates that a caused b. It's the timing that really made it clear. As far as I understood, other people echoed that very same sentiment in this thread just today. If that was a misinterpretation, I'm happy to say so. I'm not here to pick holes, nor am I wedded to a position on the subject. I'm just looking at what the evidence says. The evidence that you say speaks for itself.
Cases have risen in almost every major country in the last few months, Belgium included. Your premise is that schools are a key driver of that. The only way to test that theory is whether places have had exactly the same kind of spike without schools re-opening, and whether, weeks and weeks after schools re-opening, no such spike appeared in other places. I've just given some examples, they aren't exhaustive. If you're not willing to accept that those two things have already been demonstrated in other countries, fair enough, then we're not really having a discussion. You're just using me as a prop to repeat some propaganda. I'm happy enough knowing the evidence that you wanted was put out there plainly to see. People can make their own judgments.
The only true way to test is to close schools and see. Given we’ve tried everything else with no joy.
Last edited: