SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

FootballHQ said:
A vaccine won't give us normal life e.g. 60k full football stadiums, no mask wearing on public transport and live music gigs/festivals which people all want to enjoy again eventually the day after the first jab though.

Hopefully 2021 won't be as grim as this year but the first half of it is still going to be under restrictions, saw interview with someone from Public Health England who said compulsory face masking would still be needed up to June/July which looks realistic. That would rule out the early summer festivals unless they just went to one day but already taken a hit financially.

Of course these now as seen as life luxuries but just thinking of numbers in normal times who attend football matches over one weekend and the number must be close to a million and you have 100k + attendances at likes of Reading and Leeds, Download and Glasto and there are another hundred smaller festivals.

That's what I'd class as a normal year. I see it as second half of 2021 to get the social scene properly up and running and then 2022 as "normal" providing everything goes to plan with the vaccine trials continuing.
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A vaccine, even if a really good one eventuates, won't return everywhere instantly back to pre-covid conditions but it will be a massive step in the right direction. We may need multiple vaccines, mononuclear antibody treatments and anti-virals to reduce it to endemic flu like status and that won't be overnight even if we can get enough people to take it.

And for context I was replying to the following post that was working on the assumption that there would be no vaccine, rather than suggesting it was a magic bullet that would fix everything by January.

Maticmaker said:
With no vaccine, at some point the focus will have to be on the vulnerable, they (includes me!) will have to be isolated completely
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Stack said:
I am skeptical that we will see a return to the freedom of travel and ease of movement we have been enjoying for the last 40 years. Airlines have been battered by this, the travel industry has been routed. Going forward portions of the former travelling population will be more conservative, travel insurance will be more complicated, all borders will open again but with a variety of restrictions. There will no doubt be discounted airfares for example to try and lure the travelling public back but those can only last for a short time before the reality of making air travel between countries viable. The cost of flying around the world I think will increase and with that there will be fewer people travelling. I just dont see a return to the normal we got used to.
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Think I last travelled abroad in mid 2017 was a mate's stag do so I imagine I'd be well down the list of users here who last travelled abroad. Seems a fair number still went abroad this summer for holidays looking at stories in press which I find mind boggling (none of the people I know did and most of them usually have 1-2 trips abroad a year). Going forward can certainly see more restictions and will be mainly business people and sports teams on long haul flights.

Think at this point I'd just be happy going to a pro football match in next 6 months, we'll see what government does once we get to March. Looking less likely festivals will get go ahead in the summer. When you go there and chat to people you realise for many that's their main holiday of the year.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Does seem like they’re missing a trick to not stick an extra week on the half term break.

I guess they’ve decided that the data shows schools are not a significant contributor and it’s in the interest of society to keep them open. They should be a bit more explicit about that second bit, mind you.

I actually think we need some sort of people’s forum. To decide what our priorities are going to be while we live with this fecking thing (as it looks like eradication is off the table). I’d like to see amateur sport a bit higher up the list of priorities than it is anyway. Not sure what the sacrificial lamb would be to allow this. Come down harder on companies insisting people still come to work in the office?
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I can understand Schools remaining open.

Universities are the ones I really can't understand. Mass outbreaks already and the students have only been there 2-3 weeks (while schools restarted early September) and those that aren't self isolating in their halls will be spilling out into the local bars and pubs in the evening as you do.

Surely they could've pushed back things until January and pushed the year into July for exams? I went a decade ago and way thinks worked out in my final year I only had one lecture a week on my course up to December. Vice Chancellors could've also taken a paycut considering some of the insane yearly figures they're on.

Universities restarting just seems a bit of a super spreader to me in some of the places hit up North but could be wrong.
 
Berbasbullet said:
This! My colleague who is very political and loves brexit has just taken this approach, he previously seemed sensible about it but now has decided lockdown doesn’t work and wales should not be going into lockdown, I mean come on pal imagine how bad it would be if we just let it spread.
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I mean i can understand the arguments on the detail, for instance Regional versus national and on the extent/timing of lockdown. I just can't fathom how it's evolved into the simple 'lockdowns don't work', who told them lockdown would eliminate the virus?

I think they mean 'lockdowns don't work for me'
 
Smores said:
I mean i can understand the arguments on the detail, for instance Regional versus national and on the extent/timing of lockdown. I just can't fathom how it's evolved into the simple 'lockdowns don't work', who told them lockdown would eliminate the virus?

I think they mean 'lockdowns don't work for me'
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Oh absolutely you can debate the intricacies for sure! But when someone says they don’t work then they can get in the sea.
 
prateik said:
Just checked youtube to see if there was any update on the vaccine
saw this from 3 hrs ago.. the comments section is a joy.

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Many leading makers are set to release more data on October 22nd. Fingers crossed. Hoping most of the world gets vaccinated within the first half of 2021.
 
Suv666 said:
Many leading makers are set to release more data on October 22nd. Fingers crossed. Hoping most of the world gets vaccinated within the first half of 2021.
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That is definitely not going to happen..
 
Sparky_Hughes said:
Ive said it before and Ill say it again, being an adult and all of its associated privileges shouldnt be based on age, it should be based on bloody common sense. Finish school get your adult licence. Do something stupid like drink driving, sticking a grenade up your arse or agreeing with trump, believe the moon landings were faked or 9/11 was a hoax? points on your licence. Hit a certain amount of points and your adult licence is revoked and all of your decisions now have to be made by a responsible adult with a clean adult licence, cant find one then one will be provided for you.
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add to that things like getting vaccines on your licence. If a dog needs a vaccine passport to travel. So should we
 
Suv666 said:
Many leading makers are set to release more data on October 22nd. Fingers crossed. Hoping most of the world gets vaccinated within the first half of 2021.
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Um...

EDIT: Assuming every single thing goes right, at current manufacturing capacities it's looking to be around one billion vaccinated by the end of 2021. (That's not counting whatever China will be doing and fudging their numbers with) Again, that's assuming no mass anti vax, no ruined batches, no bad batches that cause fear and pushback, etc etc etc.

To be fair, there's also no reason not to hope that every single thing will go right.
 
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prateik said:
That is definitely not going to happen..
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hungrywing said:
Um...

EDIT: Assuming every single thing goes right, at current manufacturing capacities it's looking to be around one billion vaccinated by the end of 2021. (That's not counting whatever China will be doing and fudging their numbers with) Again, that's assuming no mass anti vax, no ruined batches, no bad batches that cause fear and pushback, etc etc etc.

To be fair, there's also no reason not to hope that every single thing will go right.
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Mass vaccination of the entire population of the planet might never happen. What I’m hoping for in 2021 (assuming the best case scenario comes true re vaccine development) is that the most vulnerable (elderly/HCWs) get vaccinated in most countries. That would be a huge achievement and a big step towards getting back to normal. We’d need to get over the (borderline irrational) fear around “long covid”, mind you.
 
Snowjoe said:
who knows exactly why but we’ve seen a clear increase in cases which have now started to come down again and are already at a low number so what sense does it make crippling these towns and cities where things are going in the right direction when support money is needed in other places much more?

for what it’s worth it makes no difference to me as my life in tier 3 currently would be more or less identical to what it is now
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Thank you.
The reason I ask is not to be awkward. But I live not that far down the road in Bristol. And we have 2 huge Universities.
The behaviour of the public in general seems not to strictly adhere to social distancing or face coverings.
But although the cases are rising, Bristol and the West Country in general are well below many of the major cities.
And although there are certain areas typical if inner cities, you do begin to wonder if living standards are a major factor.
 
prateik said:
That is definitely not going to happen..
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Depends on the number of the vaccines that will be ready. There are what like 4-5 on Phase 3?
Even if Oxford, Moderna and Pfzier are ready by the first half, surely we can vaccinate loads. Maybe I'm being too optimistic.

Besides by the end of 2021 the amount of people infected plus a percent of population vaccinated should slow down the virus drastically right?
 
Suv666 said:
Depends on the number of the vaccines that will be ready. There are what like 4-5 on Phase 3?
Even if Oxford, Moderna and Pfzier are ready by the first half, surely we can vaccinate loads. Maybe I'm being too optimistic.

Besides by the end of 2021 the amount of people infected plus a percent of population vaccinated should slow down the virus drastically right?
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I would say yes, definitely. Even without a vaccine. The virus is here to stay (barring a miracle) but should pose much less of a threat by the end of next year.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
I would say yes, definitely. Even without a vaccine. The virus is here to stay (barring a miracle) but should pose much less of a threat by the end of next year.
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What’s your reasoning for this? Better therapeutic treatments? A level of herd immunity? Virus mutating into something less deadly?
 
Buster15 said:
Thank you.
The reason I ask is not to be awkward. But I live not that far down the road in Bristol. And we have 2 huge Universities.
The behaviour of the public in general seems not to strictly adhere to social distancing or face coverings.
But although the cases are rising, Bristol and the West Country in general are well below many of the major cities.
And although there are certain areas typical if inner cities, you do begin to wonder if living standards are a major factor.
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I can only speak for my area in the West Country (just) but adherence to social distancing and mask use is generally very good compared to what I’ve seen elsewhere. The pubs have also been very good enforcing the rules they should be and I think people in general have also been quite responsible. But also could be a element of luck too who knows

However I think we have to be honest in places like Cheltenham and realise we are very affluent compared to a lot of places and there’s a lot of white collar workers who have been able to just go home to work and stay there and many families are able to have parents at home to keep kids off school if they show symptoms.

I was surprised at Bristol given the size of UWE & UoB that the cases aren’t much worse than they are, especially with so many trust fund hippies in Stokes Croft who probably believe they can cure Covid with crystals :lol: Although like you say as much as there are typical inner city areas in Bristol the standard of living seemed to be fairly high when I was there.
 
Sparky_Hughes said:
Ive said it before and Ill say it again, being an adult and all of its associated privileges shouldnt be based on age, it should be based on bloody common sense. Finish school get your adult licence. Do something stupid like drink driving, sticking a grenade up your arse or agreeing with trump, believe the moon landings were faked or 9/11 was a hoax? points on your licence. Hit a certain amount of points and your adult licence is revoked and all of your decisions now have to be made by a responsible adult with a clean adult licence, cant find one then one will be provided for you.
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Bloody great idea.
 
So have we reached the point in England where it all goes downhill today.

If as expected the Government will enforce tier 3 upon Greater Manchester with no deal on funding so its more then likely going to be less just out of spite (yes this government is that tit for tat)

The public support in Manchester is clearly against the government, i'm expecting a significant amount of people to straight up ignore the restrictions, put that along with the fight for Gyms in Liverpool and it paints a grim picture for the public following the governments guidelines.

does it all unravel from here or do we just quickly jump to the national lockdown again which seems to be on the horizon just doing it region by region in a long way round.

I live on the very border of Greater Manchester 5 mins up the road from me all hospitality will shut, but our village will be fine as Cheshire East the whole thing is a giant mess.
 
acnumber9 said:
Again it’s only half a story. The article explicitly says that half the students are there and the other half are doing a mix of online and in person studies. That’s not what’s happening in schools here. They’re also checking temperatures etc at the doors. Is that happening here?
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With just 18 positives out of almost 11000 tests, I would still call that encouraging even allowing for the smaller class sizes/social distancing measures (temp checking is not very effective as a means of preventing spread).

I know I’m probably guilty of confirmation bias here so I am genuinely interested in any data about schools being a big problem. It’s just that I’m seeing much more evidence to the contrary.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
With just 18 positives out of almost 11000 tests, I would still call that encouraging even allowing for the smaller class sizes/social distancing measures (temp checking is not very effective as a means of preventing spread).

I know I’m probably guilty of confirmation bias here so I am genuinely interested in any data about schools being a big problem. It’s just that I’m seeing much more evidence to the contrary.
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Low numbers would be as much evidence of socially distancing being effective rather than schools not being an issue though surely? If schools absolutely have to stay open then I think finding an effective balance of in school and out of school would help.

I think you are a little. Which is human nature. I’m just waiting to see a compelling argument for why cases exploded right after schools and universities re-opened but not be connected to them in any way.
 
Insulting another member
Virgil said:
Nah he is as much of a Cnut as Cummings.
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Okay mate. Because you, Virgil is single handedly fighting for small businesses and individuals in Manchester.

You’re a cnut mate as you give no shits about your fellow people. Or are you from down south.
 
acnumber9 said:
Low numbers would be as much evidence of socially distancing being effective rather than schools not being an issue though surely?

I think you are a little. Which is human nature. I’m just waiting to see a compelling argument for why cases exploded right after schools and universities re-opened but not be connected to them in any way.
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That’s been bothering me too. Although I heard an ID consultant the other day say that it’s really just continued exponential growth that started in July/August. Which is a fair point.

If you look at a graph of cases in Uk/Ireland you can see the curve starting its upward trend a few weeks before schools opened and exponential curves always seem explosive once they get past a certain tipping point.
 
Virgil said:
Nah he is as much of a Cnut as Cummings.
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For wanting parity with his neighbours? That seems a pretty reasonable ask, in fairness. I don't like his tactics but if he's being backed into a corner for no good reason then it seems like that's the government's fault more than anyone else's. What could possibly be a good reason for paying them less while having them under restrictions for a longer period than almost anywhere else?
 
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